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A Handed Missus
Aug 6, 2012


too bad Obama won't endorse anyone in the primaries because he is a loving coward

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Subjunctive
Sep 12, 2006

✨sparkle and shine✨

nobody has met his reserve price

Sheng-Ji Yang
Mar 5, 2014


https://twitter.com/sullydish/status/1070387372955701248

whatis
Jun 6, 2012

Ocean Book posted:

id vote for al gore

if not for bernie, same actually

FRINGE
May 23, 2003
title stolen for lf posting

whatis posted:

if not for bernie, same actually

BERN AND GORE THEM ALL 2020

Jose
Jul 24, 2007

Adrian Chiles is a broadcaster and writer
https://twitter.com/splinter_news/status/1070022783399354369?s=19

Taintrunner
Apr 10, 2017

by Jeffrey of YOSPOS

oh my god that first comment.

Malah
May 18, 2015

https://twitter.com/FluffMcWhitecat/status/1070185195850985472
:wtc:

Ramrod Hotshot
May 30, 2003

https://twitter.com/elainaplott/status/1070669447654977536

quote:

On the other hand, of the day’s worth of videos and robo-calls Biden recorded for midterm candidates, many weren’t used, with several of the campaigns deciding he came off as too tired, and worn out, according to people familiar with the decisions to keep them on the shelf.

lmao Trump is going to get re elected so easily

Zerg Mans
Oct 19, 2006

Vox Nihili posted:

Zerglingman is back to hillposting--primary season has officially opened!

I'm just saying attacking cults of personality among political leaders is silly cause everyone has them

Zerg Mans
Oct 19, 2006

why the gently caress isn't Sherrod Brown running, isn't he mostly an 11 year younger bernie

Jose
Jul 24, 2007

Adrian Chiles is a broadcaster and writer
https://twitter.com/samstein/status/1070687954824323073

galenanorth
May 19, 2016

Joe Biden says "I’m ready to litigate all those things", while using that very phrase as a way to deflect from litigating them right then

A Handed Missus
Aug 6, 2012



You know, there's this fella in Vermont, who is older than Biden and NOT EVEN A DEMOCRAT, yet he sounds more energetic and doesn't slur every second word

:thunk:

Rastor
Jun 2, 2001

zegermans posted:

why the gently caress isn't Sherrod Brown running, isn't he mostly an 11 year younger bernie

IIRC he's impressively progressive for the chud area he represents but has some yikes policies / opinions

Lightning Knight
Feb 24, 2012

Pray for Answer

you know I appreciate this even tho I’d still never vote for him in a primary lol.

logikv9
Mar 5, 2009


Ham Wrangler
biden going to implode immediately so enjoy the show

bawfuls
Oct 28, 2009

zegermans posted:

why the gently caress isn't Sherrod Brown running, isn't he mostly an 11 year younger bernie
his Senate seat is too valuable to give up

Tricky Dick Nixon
Jul 26, 2010

by Nyc_Tattoo
Sherrod Brown is a center-left populist but he's definitely not a Bernie, and has a far less stellar record on foreign policy and has refused to commit to supporting Medicare for All.,

Jose
Jul 24, 2007

Adrian Chiles is a broadcaster and writer
lol name anyone who has a shot in 2020 who isn't disastrous on foreign policy

Zoran
Aug 19, 2008

I lost to you once, monster. I shall not lose again! Die now, that our future can live!

Jose posted:

lol name anyone who has a shot in 2020 who isn't disastrous on foreign policy

Bernie’s not good but he’s not a disaster, which puts him leagues ahead of everyone else

Lightning Knight
Feb 24, 2012

Pray for Answer

Jose posted:

lol name anyone who has a shot in 2020 who isn't disastrous on foreign policy

Barbara Lee. :smug:

The Muppets On PCP
Nov 13, 2016

by Fluffdaddy

logikv9 posted:

biden going to implode immediately so enjoy the show

i hope he stays in through the early primaries off sheer inertia

THS
Sep 15, 2017

Jose posted:

lol name anyone who has a shot in 2020 who isn't disastrous on foreign policy

google ron paul

The Muppets On PCP
Nov 13, 2016

by Fluffdaddy

Zoran posted:

Bernie’s not good but he’s not a disaster, which puts him leagues ahead of everyone else

he was on anderson cooper yesterday to talk about jamal khashoggi's murder and pretty much spent the whole time discussing the ongoing genocide in yemen and our complicity, which i mean nobody else is gonna bring up

at least he's been doing his homework

Jose
Jul 24, 2007

Adrian Chiles is a broadcaster and writer

THS posted:

google ron paul

i did this and apparently i'm supposed to kill my parents?

Typo
Aug 19, 2009

Chernigov Military Aviation Lyceum
The Fighting Slowpokes
nobody in usa outside very commited liberals and libertarians gives a poo poo about foreign policy outside of "we are blowing up terrists rite?

bawfuls
Oct 28, 2009

The more I think about it, the more I think it'll be virtually impossible for an unknown/longshot to win the nomination. The reason for this is a combination of a large field at the start, and the changes to the primary schedule.

Specifically, CA and TX are both on Super Tuesday now. These are physically large states with very large delegate counts. The winner(s) of those primaries will be very well positioned going forward. But campaigning in those states will be expensive, which will stand as a barrier to long-shot candidates and likely deplete the war-chests of anyone without a strong initial following. On top of that, CA has so many vote-by-mail voters that you can't just start campaigning there after IA/NH/NV/SC.

The conventional path for a relative unknown or longshot candidate to win, by winning early in IA/NH and building momentum after that, is derailed by the expensive necessity to win in CA and TX early. Maybe someone could do it if they sweep or win at least three of those first four contests, but in a crowded field that is extremely unlikely.

For these reasons, I don't see how anyone aside from Bernie/Biden/Beto/Harris wins. Bernie and Biden have the anti-establishment/establishment frontrunner status, Beto and Harris have home field advantage for TX/CA.

Tricky Dick Nixon
Jul 26, 2010

by Nyc_Tattoo
I'm not saying he's out of step with the usual just that given a choice there's really no reason to go for him, not to mention that he is absolutely going to be replaced by a chud with the current politics of Ohio if he doesn't run for his seat, there really isn't any good reason to support him other than "he's somewhat less old", even from a viability standpoint why would you give up on the household name recognition, favorability, and fundraising machine Bernie's last bid built up?

I mean yeah I'd vote for him if Bernie dropped dead and Brown ran, but c'mon, Medicare for All should at least be a starting point for a candidate in 2020, because anything less will end up just like the ACA with a Frankenstein like compromise like a public option that will just create more ammunition for a reaction that tears it further apart.

MysteriousStranger
Mar 3, 2016
My "vacation" is a euphemism for war tourism in Ukraine for some "bloody work" to escape my boring techie job and family.

Ask me about my warcrimes.

Tricky Dick Nixon posted:

I'm not saying he's out of step with the usual just that given a choice there's really no reason to go for him, not to mention that he is absolutely going to be replaced by a chud with the current politics of Ohio if he doesn't run for his seat, there really isn't any good reason to support him other than "he's somewhat less old", even from a viability standpoint why would you give up on the household name recognition, favorability, and fundraising machine Bernie's last bid built up?

I mean yeah I'd vote for him if Bernie dropped dead and Brown ran, but c'mon, Medicare for All should at least be a starting point for a candidate in 2020, because anything less will end up just like the ACA with a Frankenstein like compromise like a public option that will just create more ammunition for a reaction that tears it further apart.

He's not a known grifter, Bernie is.

Doesn't matter though neither is getting the nom.

THS
Sep 15, 2017

MysteriousStranger posted:

He's not a known grifter, Bernie is.

Doesn't matter though neither is getting the nom.

what makes sanders a grifter in comparison to anyone else vying for the nomination

bawfuls
Oct 28, 2009

MysteriousStranger posted:

He's not a known grifter, Bernie is.

Doesn't matter though neither is getting the nom.
that's quite a galaxy brain take you got there

Son of Thunderbeast
Sep 21, 2002

MysteriousStranger posted:

He's not a known grifter, Bernie is.

Doesn't matter though neither is getting the nom.

:hmmyes:

Vox Nihili
May 28, 2008

MysteriousStranger posted:

He's not a known grifter, Bernie is.

Doesn't matter though neither is getting the nom.

Would love to hear from you (a moron) about who will be getting the nom.

Lightning Knight
Feb 24, 2012

Pray for Answer

Vox Nihili posted:

Would love to hear from you (a moron) about who will be getting the nom.

I believe he is a Basta stan which makes the "Bernie is a known grifter" comment infinitely funnier.

Raskolnikov38
Mar 3, 2007

We were somewhere around Manila when the drugs began to take hold

MysteriousStranger posted:

He's not a known grifter, Bernie is.

Doesn't matter though neither is getting the nom.

ate shit on live tv
Feb 15, 2004

by Azathoth

that pic paints Basta as way too cool.

Willa Rogers
Mar 11, 2005

MysteriousStranger posted:

He's not a known grifter, Bernie is.

Doesn't matter though neither is getting the nom.

gently caress those $250,000 speeches he's giving to wall street!

mastershakeman
Oct 28, 2008

by vyelkin

Vox Nihili posted:

Would love to hear from you (a moron) about who will be getting the nom.

Luis Gutierrez is gonna win both Texas and Cali and coast from there

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Trabisnikof
Dec 24, 2005

bawfuls posted:

The more I think about it, the more I think it'll be virtually impossible for an unknown/longshot to win the nomination. The reason for this is a combination of a large field at the start, and the changes to the primary schedule.

Specifically, CA and TX are both on Super Tuesday now. These are physically large states with very large delegate counts. The winner(s) of those primaries will be very well positioned going forward. But campaigning in those states will be expensive, which will stand as a barrier to long-shot candidates and likely deplete the war-chests of anyone without a strong initial following. On top of that, CA has so many vote-by-mail voters that you can't just start campaigning there after IA/NH/NV/SC.

The conventional path for a relative unknown or longshot candidate to win, by winning early in IA/NH and building momentum after that, is derailed by the expensive necessity to win in CA and TX early. Maybe someone could do it if they sweep or win at least three of those first four contests, but in a crowded field that is extremely unlikely.

For these reasons, I don't see how anyone aside from Bernie/Biden/Beto/Harris wins. Bernie and Biden have the anti-establishment/establishment frontrunner status, Beto and Harris have home field advantage for TX/CA.

An important rule to consider is a large chunk of delegates are allocated by congressional district not at the state level.

I think there is only one way for an outsider candidate to overcome the media cost disadvantage you outline, the ground game. Volunteers that are enthusiastic and dedicated combined with a campaign aggressively seeking “earned media” can more than overcome the money advantage of more establishment candidates.

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