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marktheando posted:I do cringe whenever a FBPE type says that in the second referendum the leave side won’t be able to just regurgitate all their proven lies. Why the hell wouldn’t they repeat a winning strategy? Because they'll be going hard in "The people had spoken", "This betrayal shall not stand" and "Don't let the politicians tell you what to do" instead.
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Dec 31, 2018 18:59
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Combat Theory posted:This is under the premise that after 2 years of brexit negotiations and analysis what the actual costs are, anyone in the UK government still wants out and not just does it for the fear of pissing half the country off. That is not an unpopular opinion, certainly not in the UKMT anyway.
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Dec 31, 2018 19:03
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If you think about it brexit is just an extension of the triple lock pension policy.
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Dec 31, 2018 19:06
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I don't think about things.
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Dec 31, 2018 19:18
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NotJustANumber99 posted:I don't think about things. your posting is evidence of this
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Dec 31, 2018 19:20
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Cool to see that the libs have openly embraced literal neo-nazi propaganda.
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Dec 31, 2018 19:21
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Fans posted:Remain isn't going to be on a second referendum. There's no way that passes multiple votes in the commons when the ruling party has a group dedicated to making sure it doesn't get there. You could say the exact same thing about No Deal.
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Dec 31, 2018 20:14
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I apologize for being dumb but I’m a little lost. Does Corbyn even get a say in whether or not this deal passes so long as May nominally controls parliament? I don’t know what’s at issue here, again my apologies.
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Dec 31, 2018 20:18
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Lightning Knight posted:I apologize for being dumb but I’m a little lost. Does Corbyn even get a say in whether or not this deal passes so long as May nominally controls parliament? I don’t know what’s at issue here, again my apologies. If a few tories and/or the DUP don't rebel, then nah, he can't stop it. But because May's deal is universally unpopular - and she clearly knows it, since she won't bring it to a vote - then it's likely Corbyn and Labour will be the main force in voting it down
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Dec 31, 2018 20:21
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Barry Foster posted:If a few tories and/or the DUP don't rebel, then nah, he can't stop it. But because May's deal is universally unpopular - and she clearly knows it, since she won't bring it to a vote - then it's likely Corbyn and Labour will be the main force in voting it down Oh I see. So the argument is over what y’all want Corbyn to do?
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Dec 31, 2018 20:21
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Lightning Knight posted:Oh I see. So the argument is over what y’all want Corbyn to do? Mostly. But there is the complication that some people are now saying that if he votes May’s deal down he is in effect voting for ‘no deal’. This is silly because it takes all blame from May. We also don’t actually know what will happen if May’s deal is voted down. People are posting their own pessimistic predictions as fact.
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Dec 31, 2018 20:25
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Lightning Knight posted:I apologize for being dumb but I’m a little lost. Does Corbyn even get a say in whether or not this deal passes so long as May nominally controls parliament? I don’t know what’s at issue here, again my apologies. It goes before Parliament, which means every MP gets to vote. MPs generally vote on party lines- under arrangements known as "Whipping"- pushing MPs to vote with their party under penalty of reprisal. MPs can rebel, and on this issue rebels are quite likely. Even so- if Corbyn decides to whip abstention or whip in favour of the deal, then it will easily pass. If Corbyn keeps Labour united in solid opposition then May needs the votes of every Conservative, and some key abstentions from other parties- Getting a majority of Parliament for the deal is currently unlikely as the Remain and Hard Brexit wings of the Tory party have publicly denounced it. The upshot is that if Corbyn wanted this deal to pass, he could do it easily.
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Dec 31, 2018 20:28
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yes it's the guardian but this is a p. good take from Tom Kibasi who seems to be a good egg: If it was the season of peace and goodwill towards all, then politics failed to get the memo. Not only did hostilities continue through the Christmas period, some of the main protagonists announced in advance that they were incapable of taking a break. If anything, the holidays provided more opportunities for irate, booze-fuelled Twitter rants. One particular object of ire was Jeremy Corbyn’s pre-Christmas interview in the Guardian, where he appeared to dash the hopes of many on the left that Labour would immediately become the party of remain. As the political class sobers up in January and returns to Westminster, it will become apparent that little has changed. The size of the majority against the prime minister’s deal will have diminished but – as No 10 briefed in the run-up to the internal confidence vote in her leadership – it only takes a majority of one. Bizarrely, Downing Street has chosen to amplify the threat of no deal by announcing more money and even the deployment of troops. But this strategy seems set to backfire: it will only give comfort to the European Research Group hardliners that there can be a soft landing to jumping off the cliff edge. For Labour, it was never likely that Corbyn would announce a decisive shift in position weeks before the meaningful vote and just before the Christmas holidays. Rather, Labour’s position is unaltered from its conference-set policy: its primary objective is to defeat the government on the meaningful vote because the prime minister’s deal has failed Labour’s six tests, which Theresa May herself had promised she would meet. If the government cannot pass its major measure of the day, then a general election is the constitutionally appropriate response. It makes sense that Labour should seek a general election because its critique of the government goes well beyond the handling of the Brexit negotiations. From an electoral perspective, there are more marginal constituencies that backed remain than marginals that supported leave. It is an open secret in Westminster that a new centrist party is readying to launch and, together with the Liberal Democrats, could form a repository for enough remain protest votes to deny Labour a majority if it were to go into a general election promising to deliver Brexit. It has never been apparent why Labour should fear losing leave voters to the Tories more than losing remain voters to other parties. While it is true that many Labour constituencies voted to leave, for many of these voters Brexit is a far less important issue than stagnant wages, large class sizes and lengthening NHS waiting times. Moreover, many of these areas are strongly tribally Labour, and what has changed since 2016 is that Brexit is now “owned” by the Tory party. Crudely, many of these voters hate Tories more than they want Brexit. For all these reasons, it is inconceivable that Labour would go into a general election without a promise of a further referendum with a remain option. The most significant swing voters in a future referendum are working-class women – hit hard by austerity and Brexit is not their top issue Yet in all likelihood the government would win a confidence vote even if it had lost the vote on the deal. With May’s deal defeated, a general election ruled out, and no deal a calamity, there would be few options left. One option could be for a renegotiation of the political declaration (rather than the withdrawal agreement) but a closer economic partnership would probably see May lose as many Tory MPs as she might be able to persuade opposition MPs. Even if the political declaration were to be tweaked, it would not be binding on May’s successor—making it politically dangerous for Labour to endorse. So after the meaningful vote, Labour may be confronted with a choice between no deal and a second referendum. In all likelihood, pro-European MPs will put down an amendment to the finance bill requiring a referendum as a condition of the government collecting tax. Labour may have little option but to back a second referendum if it is to protect the country from no deal which it rightly believes would be a disaster. In this scenario, Labour will want to remind the public that they are being forced to the ballot box again as a result of May’s failure to negotiate a deal that parliament could support, not because of the choices made by the opposition. That’s why there have been many credible reports of No 10 and Conservative central office ramping up preparations for a second referendum. Paradoxically, it may be that Downing Street is talking up no deal precisely in anticipation of a second referendum – so that it can claim that it was willing to go ahead with no deal but that Labour forced a second referendum. Whatever the manoeuvres, the public are likely to conclude that the government is responsible for the failure of the Brexit project. With more than 80% of Labour members wanting to remain in the European Union, Labour would plainly back remain in a future referendum. While the remain and leave blocs have proved more resilient than many anticipated, there has been an important shift towards remain, and even more so when offered against the specifics of either May’s deal or no deal rather than the undefined leave option. Corbyn has been repeatedly criticised for his lack of enthusiasm for the EU; but this may prove to be a decisive advantage. It is mildly Eurosceptic voters who need to be persuaded, and Corbyn could speak authentically to this group about the balanced case for voting to stay in the EU. Crucially, the most significant group of swing voters in a future referendum are working-class women – this group has been hit hard by austerity and Brexit is not their top issue. These are precisely the same voters that Labour needs to win a general election. If Labour’s second referendum message of “vote remain, let’s rebuild Britain instead” can convince them in 2019, it could build the momentum for a Labour victory in the next general election too. And it would smash the generational project of the right, leaving conservatism in disarray. If there is a second referendum, only Labour can win it – and winning it might be Labour’s path to power. All of this will be determined in the coming weeks. It’s time to take a deep breath. https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2018/dec/31/path-second-referendum-labour-win-westminster-brexit-power
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Dec 31, 2018 20:29
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Regarde Aduck posted:Mostly. But there is the complication that some people are now saying that if he votes May’s deal down he is in effect voting for ‘no deal’. This is silly because it takes all blame from May. We also don’t actually know what will happen if May’s deal is voted down. People are posting their own pessimistic predictions as fact. I see. Does Corbyn/the Labour Party have a stated position? I am reminded of American political parties trying to argue who “owns” the government shutdown.
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Dec 31, 2018 20:32
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Lightning Knight posted:I see. Does Corbyn/the Labour Party have a stated position? Labour wants to do a brexit but they don't like the tory brexit. The brexit they want is impossible but they consistently say "get out the way and let us have a go" There is much conseternation surrounding what this means, given that they should know what they've advertised is impossible.
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Dec 31, 2018 20:34
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Stopped clock etc. https://twitter.com/afneil/status/1079709883862302720?s=19
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Dec 31, 2018 20:55
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Kegluneq posted:Stopped clock etc. wait for the followup where he decides the solution is just to let them drown
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Dec 31, 2018 20:57
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Kegluneq posted:Stopped clock etc. Dead children washing up in Dover is a bad look, regardless of how many people the government allows to die/kills behind the scenes.
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Dec 31, 2018 20:58
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Seems really like we could solve two problems by hiring the expert channel crossers to handle no deal logistics.
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Dec 31, 2018 21:00
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Lightning Knight posted:I apologize for being dumb but I’m a little lost. Does Corbyn even get a say in whether or not this deal passes so long as May nominally controls parliament? I don’t know what’s at issue here, again my apologies. May does not appear to have the votes necessary. This is generally agreed in the media to be the reason why she postponed the "meaningful vote" on the deal from early Dec to end Dec to early Jan to mid Jan: to put together time to obtain the votes. This is not thought to be going well, even with two more weeks to go. So - on the assumption that she will bring the vote, and that the vote will fail, the question becomes how Corbyn will respond. An idea that the Labour leadership and its assorted affiliates have been advocating since around August (in response to #peoplesvote agitation, in part) was to push for a vote of no-confidence as soon as possible; many of his supporters regard electoral gains as likely. Assuming that the VONC succeeds, there is some further argument that reignited when first McDonnell, then Corbyn, indicated that the Labour position in a snap election would be to campaign for a Labour Brexit on terms generally thought to be incredible, even by the Corbyn base. The usual bickering over polling and projections applies. Spanner number two is that, during Conference, argument over #peoplesvote achieved the compromise that Labour pursuing an immediate general election would be "the best outcome" if Parliament votes down May's deal or the talks end with no deal, and if Labour failed to obtain a general election, it would consider "all options", including a second referendum. There is some ambiguity over whether this means that second referendum will necessarily be adopted, but this was not a priority at the time; the assumption was that the former would be the main consideration, and that it would be obviously immediate. A Tory internal leadership challenge seemed to be rumbling, which could have potentially opened up a promising challenge to a wobbly successor to May, who might themselves want to reify a different mandate in a snap election. Unfortunately the timing did not work: the Tory challenge unexpectedly sparked off early and then failed. This has put a damper on Tory challenger aspirations, which makes it more likely that a VONC will fail - it, too, would need Tory or DUP votes to pass - which then makes it likely to trigger the latter part of the compromise. So now the Labour leadership is cautious on an ill-timed VONC. To add insult to indignity, the minor and Scottish parties have now decided to embrace the VONC banner now that Labour's predicament is clear. And then there's the now-salient question of exactly what "all options" might entail... Spanner number three is how to respond to May's certain gambit of threatening (not entirely credibly) to crash out with no deal if Parliament does not accept her deal, given that an immediate VONC might not be in the cards. Here there is all manner of speculation, both on Tory brinkmanship or backup plans, and then Labour options. ronya fucked around with this message at 21:12 on Dec 31, 2018 |
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Dec 31, 2018 21:02
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I was under the impression that polls indicate Brexit would still win a second referendum, is that true or false?
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Dec 31, 2018 21:06
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Lightning Knight posted:I was under the impression that polls indicate Brexit would still win a second referendum, is that true or false? No-one really knows, there are polls that show both sides winning, and that's assuming that a second referendum would be a straight remain/leave vote like the first one, which is far from certain.
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Dec 31, 2018 21:08
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No one knows because everything to do with brexit is shrouded by an impenetrable veil of mystery (besides the racism really), no one wants to clarify anything and at this point any vote hinges on what Facebook decides to show on the automated feeds. It's a clown show from top to bottom.
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Dec 31, 2018 21:09
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Julio Cruz posted:No-one really knows, there are polls that show both sides winning, and that's assuming that a second referendum would be a straight remain/leave vote like the first one, which is far from certain. I see. Seems like quite a mess then. I don't really know what to think or what y'all should do but I think I understand what's at issue now.
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Dec 31, 2018 21:10
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Lightning Knight posted:I was under the impression that polls indicate Brexit would still win a second referendum, is that true or false? That was true until around mid September-ish 2018, I think. Since then polling has indicated a shift of some sort toward both Remain and Second Referendum, but the magnitude of the shift is unclear and intensely dependent on wording, scenario under which the referendum is described to occur, and kind of Brexit on offer and the alternative proposed. (what happened in September was the Chequers plan, already too pro-EU for the hardline Tories, crashing and burning when the EU shot it down. There was also the aforementioned Labour Party Conference in September, which occupied attentions in this thread, but most people outside of wonk nerdery don't pay that much attention) ronya fucked around with this message at 21:21 on Dec 31, 2018 |
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Dec 31, 2018 21:11
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Julio Cruz posted:You could say the exact same thing about No Deal. It's almost like there's no referendum question that would ever get through this parliament
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Dec 31, 2018 21:11
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Lightning Knight posted:I see. Seems like quite a mess then. I don't really know what to think or what y'all should do but I think I understand what's at issue now. Crack each other's heads open and feast on the goo inside. I'm pretty sure about this.
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Dec 31, 2018 21:11
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Failed Imagineer posted:Crack each other's heads open and feast on the goo inside. Mmm, nougat.
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Dec 31, 2018 21:22
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Dec 31, 2018 21:28
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Lightning Knight posted:I see. Seems like quite a mess then. I don't really know what to think or what y'all should do but I think I understand what's at issue now. In the event that anyone out there reading the thread does know what to think or what w'all should do, send your answers in a self addressed stamped envelope to 10 Downing Street, City of Westminster, London, SW1A 2AA
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Dec 31, 2018 21:28
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Mays in charge. It's a tricky ship to steer but she is at the helm. Jeremy Corbyn is the bright light of glorious day shining through the clouds. Although he might be a pirate ship that steals the empire's riches. Mogg is the storm, the kraken, the whirlpool, the siren song and has the easiest job because he's always there and it just takes the once to fall victim to him. Problem is may has two peg legs and two eye patches and her parrot runs wetherspoons. It's not looking good.
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Dec 31, 2018 21:33
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I didn't mean to be anti disabled people in that post. Please understand it's a metaphor. I think? A simile?
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Dec 31, 2018 21:36
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not necessarily ableist because given she likes to cosplay as religious I imagine the peg legs are really just stilts under her normal legs and the eye patches are over fully functioning eyes
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Dec 31, 2018 21:42
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OwlFancier posted:In the event that anyone out there reading the thread does know what to think or what w'all should do, send your answers in a self addressed stamped envelope to 10 Downing Street, City of Westminster, London, SW1A 2AA I absolutely do not want Theresa May knowing my home address
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Dec 31, 2018 21:44
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Julio Cruz posted:I absolutely do not want Theresa May knowing my home address bad news about your national insurance details
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Dec 31, 2018 21:45
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Kegluneq posted:Stopped clock etc. The last bit is specifically due to the UK still following the Dublin convention to the letter, meaning that people who cross over from France are considered illegal immigrants (for the most part, children with family in the UK being the main exception). e: Whatever you do don't read the replies on that tweet. Private Speech fucked around with this message at 22:16 on Dec 31, 2018 |
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Dec 31, 2018 22:06
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NotJustANumber99 posted:Mays in charge. It's a tricky ship to steer but she is at the helm. Jeremy Corbyn is the bright light of glorious day shining through the clouds. Although he might be a pirate ship that steals the empire's riches. Mogg is the storm, the kraken, the whirlpool, the siren song and has the easiest job because he's always there and it just takes the once to fall victim to him. Problem is may has two peg legs and two eye patches and her parrot runs wetherspoons. It's not looking good.
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Dec 31, 2018 22:12
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I hope everyone will be posting pictures of their cooked breakfast tomorrow morning. We need to update the list of Wrong posters
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Dec 31, 2018 22:48
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Gonna have to go for not even wrong poster by eating marzipan log on toast for breakfast.
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Dec 31, 2018 22:58
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i wont be up till feb
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Dec 31, 2018 23:15
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