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Who will be #1 Pick?
DE Nick Bosa
DT Quinnen Williams
White Quarterback
Kicker...yeah...definitely the Kicker
View Results
 
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Slowpoke!
Feb 12, 2008

ANIME IS FOR ADULTS
Panthers needs:

DE - Mario Addison will likely finish with double digit sacks, giving him 10 sacks/year for the past three years. Turns out he is good, but he is the only solid player left at DE. Peppers is only a rotational player and might retire. Efe Obada is raw and has potential, but I wouldn’t feel comfortable rolling with him as a starter. Horton and Cox are fodder. In today’s game, passing is so important that you could argue that the only real important players are the QBs, OTs and pass rushers. And yet we are rolling with 4 undrafted players at DE.

OL - If we re-sign Darryl Williams then we do not need a top OT (unless it is Best Player Available). I am comfortable rolling with Williams, Kalil, Moton, and Clark or a cheap backup. We need to replace Ryan Kalil at C and we need a replacement guard. It’s possilbe we slide Moton to G like originally planned, but that still leaves a hole at C. I would prefer we use our first round pick on the best available OL regardless of position given how much is up in the air with the Kalil bros and Williams.

CB/S - Bradberry and Jackson are solid starters. Our backup corners might be the worst in the NFL. They are small, slow, and we can’t keep putting our LBs in coverage because we don’t want to expose our nickel and dime corners. We have the most athletic coverage LBers in the NFL, but LBers can’t run with WRs. You need three starting caliber CBs these days. Would also be good insurance in case we don’t want to pay Bradberry. Safety is another big need. Eric Reid probably won’t re-sign, and our other safeties are old, often injured, or look overmatched (Gaulden).

WR - Funchess is going to walk, get paid, and give us a fat comp pick in return. We should replace him with a big WR in the third round. DJ Moore, Curtis Samuel, and Jarius Wright are a good core, but too small as a group.

TE - Olsen is probably retiring. His foot injuries have been mostly non-contact or marginal contact, and that is with us easing him back and taking precautions. It sucks, but he should get out while he can. His foot just isn’t healing. Ian Thomas looks overmatched, but he is still raw. I think we address this position only if someone falls to us.

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Slowpoke!
Feb 12, 2008

ANIME IS FOR ADULTS

FizFashizzle posted:

Larsen is ready to step in for Kalil, and should honestly be starting already Ryan is just toast.

Addison is fine, but the Panthers could spend their top pick on DT or DE and I wouldn't be upset.

At safety, I think they need to resign reid and give him an actual free safety over the top. The secondary will look worlds better when it's not counting on 2 SS and a cripple at nickel.

Ian thomas had a pretty good game today. Olsen was a HOF caliber player if he'd had a better situation, and the Panthers aren't going to replace that. Thomas might be good enough.

Honestly I think the pieces on offense are good enough. My draft targets are DT, DE, DB, in no particular order.

Since I wrote that, Ian Thomas had a nice 4 game stretch. He also had a 7 game stretch where he had 1 target in total. Hopefully he shows a bit more this week. If Olsen wants to stick around one more year, I would be happy with Olsen starting and Thomas getting more reps, and not addressing this position in the draft.

Also a fun fact. Going back to the Lions game (6 weeks), our nickel corner (Munnerlyn) is leading the team in sacks with 2. Going back to the Steelers game (7 weeks), Peppers ties him with 2. Our pass rush has evaporated, and the DL is the culprit. I would now be happy with spending the top pick on the best available pass rusher, regardless of position.

Slowpoke!
Feb 12, 2008

ANIME IS FOR ADULTS

Doltos posted:

QB might even be good this year. Haskins has a cannon for an arm and he doesn't even plant his back foot so that's gotta get someone excited. Lock, Grier, and Jones are all looking like solid first round prospects too. I think Herbert got scared off by Haskin's emergence and wants to be a #1 in a weaker class next year.

If Haskins blows up Washington's defense, and I think he will, then he goes in the top 10. Lock should be in the top 10 as well. The only reasons they won't go in the top 5 is it looks like the top 5 are set at QB and in need of DL help. My guess is one of them finds a suitor in the Giants or Jaguars and one of those teams snatches Haskins in the top 5, but trades are tough to predict. Most years, teams would be content drafting a DE/DT with a top pick because it is good value, but the Giants and Jaguars feel they are contenders that are only missing a QB, so they might try to get in front of each other to take the best one.

Also it seems every year the best QBs are ranked as like the 10th or 15th best player overall, yet they go in the top 3. It no longer surprises me to see teams gamble next years draft away to just have a shot at getting a good starting QB. They are that important.

Ches Neckbeard posted:

Next years class QB class is Tanking for Tua, Herbert will be an afterthought again.

My only concern with Tua is I don't know if he is going to measure 6'1 at the combine, so some team might take Herbert because he is your prototypical size.

Slowpoke! fucked around with this message at 16:29 on Dec 28, 2018

Slowpoke!
Feb 12, 2008

ANIME IS FOR ADULTS

The Puppy Bowl posted:

That is the dumbest poo poo. Not saying you're wrong but drat is that stupid. Flacco is like 6'6 and he's near led the league in tipped balls for the past few years. As long as they have good vision and know where the ball is supposed to go, who cares.

It could be a nothingburger. That was just my hot take, that Tua doesn't look 6'1, but for all I know it's because he squats down when he is taking the snap and he has a relatively stocky frame.

I think like a lot of people have said, height at QB is less important compared to frame, and Tua has a strong frame. He also is a pass-first runner so I think he will hold up better than someone like Murray.


big fork small knife posted:

How would you rate Kyler Murray? I haven’t watched him like at all, so I dunno how he is at taking sacks, but isn’t he around 180 lbs?

I think if he does declare, he is going to test the limit for the "size doesn't matter" crowd at QB. He is super small.

I hope he declares because that OU/Alabama game was amazing to watch.

Slowpoke!
Feb 12, 2008

ANIME IS FOR ADULTS

kiimo posted:

I think you have to give Rosen more time, right? This is a good class to have the top pick in if you don't need a QB, right?

The Chiefs had to take a dogshit tackle project #1 when they had it. I'd have killed for a Bosa or Williams that year.

I think he was lamenting not being able to get a king's ransom for the #1 pick since there isn't an Andrew Luck type guy that everyone wants to move up for. Most likely, the Cards will not find a suitor given that there currently isn't a lot of separation between the top DL prospects.

But yeah, not a bad year to pick first. The best prospects are pass rushing DEs and DTs. Most scouts would say QB, DE, DT, and LT are the only positions worthy of that spot, so if they take Bosa or Williams they shouldn't be disappointed.

Slowpoke!
Feb 12, 2008

ANIME IS FOR ADULTS

Catfish Noodlin posted:

I don't really understand the argument about Murray's build insofar as his ability to hold up to playing in the NFL- is there something to suggest the types of hits that the quarterback takes are the issue here? Because there are a poo poo-load of NFL runningbacks who have the same general dimensions as the 5'10/11", 195 pounds that Murray is listed at:

http://pfref.com/tiny/J6j04

I mean just in general using size as a predictor of how someone is going to hold up to the wear and tear of the NFL really just seems like an impossibly crude guesstimate when what you're really worrying about is body mechanic and tendon and ligament flexibility and strength, and that seems pretty far beyond the NFL right now.

QB is not as expendable as RB, and they tend to make $20+ million/year if they are decent. Most RBs make around one-third to one-quarter that. You obviously treat a guy with that kind of importance to the team, and that kind of contract, a little bit differently. For example, if Kirk Cousins got hurt in Minnesota then good luck finding another QB to replace him when he is eating up $28 million of cap. If your RB goes down, you plug in the other guy on your roster.

Slowpoke!
Feb 12, 2008

ANIME IS FOR ADULTS
I love reading about what NFL teams do in interviews. Like, do we think the interviewers are football dudes who dabble in psychology or do teams actually hire psychologists to do this stuff? How do you gleam anything from a staring contest? What is a good or bad outcome?

Slowpoke!
Feb 12, 2008

ANIME IS FOR ADULTS

Play posted:

I mean the idea that he bulked up for the combine and will shed weight for his pro day 40 is probably correct. Don't know why he felt the need to append a conspiracy theory

Doing this is a bullshit way to game the system and should be called out. Of course it’s the player’s choice to participate in these things so if they want to do this you can’t force them, but scouts should definitely factor this in.

The height thing is crazy though. Murray’s height is one of the most scrutinized draft things in years. I can’t imagine he would find a way to game the system there with so many people interested in his height.

Slowpoke!
Feb 12, 2008

ANIME IS FOR ADULTS

Catfish Noodlin posted:

Dexter Lawrence evidentally has PFF's 4th best Pass Rush Productivity number among defensive tackles, which I find loving wild.

He probably would have been a top 10-15 pick if it wasn't for the suspension. Maybe higher if he had a chance and played well in the CFB playoffs.

Guy is built for today's NFL. He can play pretty much every position on the DL, and a top-rated NT only comes around once every 3-4 years it seems.

Slowpoke!
Feb 12, 2008

ANIME IS FOR ADULTS

Play posted:

Murray, Haskins and Lock are going first round. Jones will probably be second or third although I see him as more of a fourth round talent kind of guy. Him going in the first round is totally nuts

One thing I think is accurate is that offense will make a run up the draft boards as we get closer in. Remember the offensive linemen that all went way earlier than we expected last year? That's gonna happen this year too

I dunno teams value QB, DL, and OT pretty equally in terms of overdrafting. If there is a run on OTs I think it will come only after Bosa, Williams, Allen, Oliver, Sweat, Gary, and maybe even Burns, Ferrell, and Lawrence all go. Maybe Dillard slips into the top 10 because he projects as a LT, but I can’t see any receivers, backs or other OLgoong ahead of the best pass rushing prospects.

I would love for that to happen though. Panthers are sitting at 16 and hoping a DE/DT falls.

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Slowpoke!
Feb 12, 2008

ANIME IS FOR ADULTS

Diva Cupcake posted:

The new DJ mock has Ed Oliver going 3 as an edge rusher.

https://twitter.com/MoveTheSticks/status/1118177110806319105

Oliver over Williams and Allen is interesting. Most mocks are anointing Murray, Bosa, Allen/Williams as the top 3.

I guess Oliver is in the Aaron Donald mold and teams are coming around on drafting undersized DTs since pass rush is king.

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