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Who will be #1 Pick?
DE Nick Bosa
DT Quinnen Williams
White Quarterback
Kicker...yeah...definitely the Kicker
View Results
 
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sourdough
Apr 30, 2012
You inspired me to look at pfr and Romo is better in every rate stat, hah. Completion percentage, td rate, int rate, yards/attempt, on almost exactly the same attempts per game fwiw. I forgot how good some of Romo's seasons were.

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sourdough
Apr 30, 2012

Ches Neckbeard posted:

Did he correct for those dudes getting the most chances? I can't imagine the sample size for "small" QB's is that big compared to the giants.

I did a quick thing last off season to see whether there was any reason to be worried about Baker's height, and did some simple regressions looking at whether height was correlated with things like TD and int rate, while including draft pick as another predictor to at least partially control for "opportunity" and talrnt, and height didn't predict success. You do run into a restricted range, though, where you just don't have almost any data under 6 ft or above like 6'6" or 6'7", so can't rule out some threshold on either end that causes success to drop off a cliff.

sourdough
Apr 30, 2012

The Puppy Bowl posted:

Big, strong looking, shouldn't be that fast at his size sounds a lot like how you would describe Breshad Perriman in 2015.

He's a faster better Dorial Green Beckham, except DGB at least had a 59-883-12 sophomore year before sitting out his junior year.

sourdough
Apr 30, 2012

BlindSite posted:

Moore and Ridley both look the goods.

I'd argue Corey Davis, Mike Williams, and Fuller also all are quality so far. Neither Davis or Williams quite lived up to being top 7 picks so far, but solid starting WR2s at least for sure. I don't know about other positions, but a hit rate of like 50% or whatever of "first round WR becoming a long term NFL starter" doesn't seem catastrophic.

sourdough
Apr 30, 2012

Doltos posted:

Because history has shown that obvious non-premier QBs that drop out of the top 10 turn into career backups.

I thought he was literally talking about the name "Daniel Jones" screaming career backup, haha

sourdough
Apr 30, 2012

Doltos posted:

It's a stupid narrative and Rivers is arguably the worst of the three by a country mile.

Is there more to that argument than postseason wins? I thought it was pretty well accepted Eli was the worst of the three in pretty much every respect, save for his Superbowl wins.

sourdough
Apr 30, 2012

Doltos posted:

Phillip 7.5 YPA, 59.4% completion, 14:10, 5-6 playoffs
Eli 7.0 YPA 60.5% completion, 18:9, 8-4 playoffs

But... but... regular season stats is all people care about!


You must have never watched him in the playoffs then.

I do think there's something to be said for Rivers winning a game in the playoffs 4/6 years he's been there, and Eli failing to do so every time but the two Superbowl runs. But yeah, otherwise seems like if you're just talking playoffs, fair enough. I'm not sure the 11 and 12 playoff games should totally outweigh the 200+ regular season games each has played when you want to argue who is more talented or whatever, but two Superbowls is a pretty nice consolation for some less good regular season play.

sourdough
Apr 30, 2012

Metapod posted:

wow the titans are going to draft 3 hall of fame players this draft

Congrats to the Titans

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sourdough
Apr 30, 2012
Even alongside other QBs who’ve posted bad college numbers and then been drafted highly, Jones is especially hard to understand.

Also, some comparisons of QBs this year in success metrics, after seeing how last year's rookies fared relative to their college numbers.

sourdough fucked around with this message at 16:19 on Apr 26, 2019

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