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Who will be #1 Pick?
DE Nick Bosa
DT Quinnen Williams
White Quarterback
Kicker...yeah...definitely the Kicker
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Doltos
Dec 28, 2005

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Didn't even realize this thread got made I was about to write up an OP

This draft is loving stacked top to bottom.

Best d-line class in years, maybe ever. Bosa, Oliver, Josh Allen, the entire Clemson d-line, Sweat, Gary, Jefferey Simmons, Brian Burns, Zach Allen, the list just keeps going and a ton of these guys would be top 10 picks every year. Good thumping LBs too like Devin White, Wilson, Lamar, and Coney. I feel like I'm just listing the entire Clemson defense at this point but whatever.

Tons of coverage guys too. Greedy Williams is who I want the Giants to target if he somehow drops to us. Trayvon Mullen(oops) Julian Love, Deandre Baker.

Offense is pretty good. Good list of WRs like the pair Ole Miss has. Marquise Brown is my favorite weird prospect of the draft. Can't be more than 160 pounds and runs every route. OTs are solid throughout and there's some solid future all pros on both sides. People think it's a weak RB class but there's a lot of field churners that could stick in the NFL. Damien Harris, Bryce Love, Benny Snell, Devin Singletary. David Montgomery reminds me a lot of Ray Rice. Great cutter, total pinball, strong as gently caress and pretty smart to boot.

QB might even be good this year. Haskins has a cannon for an arm and he doesn't even plant his back foot so that's gotta get someone excited. Lock, Grier, and Jones are all looking like solid first round prospects too. I think Herbert got scared off by Haskin's emergence and wants to be a #1 in a weaker class next year.

Also big shout out to Voch Lombardi

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=user?vochie63

He's a great source of information in these trying pay wall times

Doltos fucked around with this message at 00:15 on Dec 28, 2018

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Doltos
Dec 28, 2005

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ELO Musk posted:

I think Trayvon Martin’s prospects might be dead, Daltos.

Well that's unfortunate

Doltos
Dec 28, 2005

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solarjetman posted:

based on watching half a bowl game I'm convinced the Broncos will take the Duke QB. He's Got The Look.

Daniel Jones is real good. Absolute beautiful touch and a decent arm to boot. Duke asks a lot out of him too with tough sideline and fade throws so I guarantee you some lovely draftnik will knock him for his accuracy.

Slowpoke! posted:

Also it seems every year the best QBs are ranked as like the 10th or 15th best player overall, yet they go in the top 3. It no longer surprises me to see teams gamble next years draft away to just have a shot at getting a good starting QB. They are that important.

That feels like it's been happening a lot and also I feel like I've been way off on QB value these past few years. Didn't think Trubisky or Watson were worth their picks at all. Baker going first surprised me too since I thought he was a total mid teens pick.

Doltos
Dec 28, 2005

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The only thing size matters for is frame. You don't want a slight guy taking big sacks. Tua's about the same size as Brees and Brees is really good at crumpling and avoiding big hits, Tua not so much. Not that he gets blasted behind that oline but he likes to twist and turn in the pocket which could lead to getting his bell rung or more leg injuries down the line.

As a passer and a creator though, c'est magnifique

Doltos
Dec 28, 2005

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big fork small knife posted:

How would you rate Kyler Murray? I haven’t watched him like at all, so I dunno how he is at taking sacks, but isn’t he around 180 lbs?

I think he's gonna be one of those examples of QBs you think should be outside the top 100 then some team takes him in the first. He's obviously an elite athlete with a cannon for an arm and I think Lincoln Riley is an offensive genius so who knows, he could be a draft darling just like Mayfield.

He's got a lot of Rodgers in him where he wants to roll out and leave the pocket constantly because he knows he's faster than DEs. Like he's not a run first QB, he's more of a run out QB. I think he has issues with ball placement. A lot of really big throws in his highlight reel that led to TDs but weren't exactly in the right spots at all. There's also something to be said about wide open throws boosting his completion percentages. As I said before I hold Lincoln Riley in high regard because he brought the run game back to the air raid. He runs a ton of pulls and counters that confuse the hell out of defenses coupled with an all out passing attack and a dual threat QB rolling away from those counters and pulls. If you watch some All-22 of Oklahoma they get amazing passing lanes constantly. You're starting to see that more in the NFL now with the Chargers and the Rams so maybe that's not a bad thing and Murray just actually might be a good fit in the current NFL despite being the size of a slot WR.

Doltos
Dec 28, 2005

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Yeah honestly if you have a choice to be a perennial 20/20 guy in the MLB you take that over concussions and destroyed joints in football.

Hell he might even have Mookie Betts potential and that alone should make him just stick with the A's.

Doltos
Dec 28, 2005

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Yeah exactly but also the caveat that Wilson was extremely good in college and would have been an undisputed top 5 pick if was 6'4. There's a ton of really lovely short QBs in the NCAA that shouldn't be unnecessarily crowned because of Wilson/Brees. Like Kyler is really good but being able to dip and dive around a pocket isn't something Wilson would want to do if he had the choice. Wilson turned into a more mobile QB in the NFL than he was in college because he had a massive o-line in Wisconsin that kept the heat off him constantly and he was able to deliver pocket strikes. I'd almost always take a QB that goes through reads over one that is able to move when the play breaks down. That was the big knock on Manziel, that he'd have these amazing highlights but most were the product of him giving up on a play too early. I feel like agile QBs do that too much and never turn into anything in the NFL.

Height difference is still just silly though as long as you're not like 5'5". There's a reason why oline is taught to bend at the waste which makes them like 5'6 tops when they bend a whole foot down or more getting into a compact stance. Batting down passes doesn't matter either. If the passing lane is closed it's closed. The difference between passing into a 6'4 guy with his hands up or a 5'9 guy with his hands up is which part of the arm the ball hits when it's batted down.

Doltos
Dec 28, 2005

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Spam Musubi posted:

What’s your guys opinion or take on Darwin Thompson. I think he’s the sleeper of the 2019 draft in my opinion.

Watched the highlights of Utah State's bowl game for Jordan Love and I don't remember Thompson that much. Guess I have to watch more

Doltos
Dec 28, 2005

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Just watched his highlights I like him when he gets the ball in space and he's a smart one cut runner down the middle but man he's gotta make people miss if he's gonna do that at the next level. Great tackle breaking ability. Usually my two rules for drafting a RB is hit the hole hard and keep your feet churning forward so he fits those two in spades. Not sure how he is as a receiver since all I saw was screens or wheels. But like I said, really good in space. He'll probably easily get drafted since more teams are warming up to powerful short backs.

Doltos
Dec 28, 2005

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Yeah Trevor Lawrence rules

Diva Cupcake posted:

Legitimately can’t think of a true freshman looking this good.

Classic answer is Phillip Rivers or RG3. If anything Rivers lost hype over the years until a resurgent senior year. RG3 was just a phenom from the get go.

Doltos
Dec 28, 2005

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MY NIGGA D-LINK posted:

He's already better as a true freshman than Luck was as a senior.

That's completely wrong

Doltos
Dec 28, 2005

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MY NIGGA D-LINK posted:

It's definitely not

He beat him in every statistical category his senior year. Had an even better junior year. That's not even counting how he was a dual threat QB to boot.

Trevor Lawrence looks great and has all the makings of a future #1. He's not better than Andrew Luck was except in his first year starting.

Doltos
Dec 28, 2005

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I'd take that so fast it'd look like a preying mantis grabbing a fly

Doltos
Dec 28, 2005

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I hate Romo and think Cousins is a good QB and both of them have about the same passing capabilities except Romo was very football smart to make up for his constant gently caress ups

Doltos
Dec 28, 2005

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Here's things Romo was great at:

Moving in the pocket
Moving outside the pocket
Throwing on the run
Throwing in the pocket to short routes or open deep routes
Identifying the right throw after a bunch of reads
Knowing defenses inside and out and audibling presnap
Creating something out of nothing

Here's things Romo wasn't great at but people for unknown reasons act like he was:
Not checking down
Throwing intermediate passes
Throwing accurate passes on the money instead of just near the receiver
Having a strong arm

He was actually a decent deep ball passer when he was young but the injuries caught up and he struggled mightily in the last few years to land balls the way elite QBs would past 15 yards. He was also the checkdown king with Witten leading TE targets almost every year Romo was throwing to him. His lowest catch percentage from 06-2015 was 65.8%, his highest was 75.8%. Considering he was getting targeted over 110 times each season except the last two, that inflated Romo's completion numbers to elite status.

I think we're spoiled with the elite play of Brees, Brady, Rodgers, and Peyton but for some reason people always try to shoe horn Romo into that list too. I'm not sure if people think they're smarter by acting like he was an underrated QB or they literally just never watched him play. Romo was a very good QB but he was more akin to the Eli Mannings and Ben Roethlisbergers of the world than the next step up.

Doltos
Dec 28, 2005

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Cavauro posted:

daltos only talks about stuff from 2011 and romo was hyped up too much back then

exactly

Doltos
Dec 28, 2005

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mcmagic posted:

Romo was a LOT better than Eli Manning. Come on.

Not even close. Eli could make any throw all over the field and his playoff stats were about the same as Romo. He's a big dingus though so that's why I put them on the same tier as QBs that you know are good but could be better.

Doltos
Dec 28, 2005

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mcmagic posted:

LOL @ playoff stats. Romo's overall numbers are VASTLY better.

You'll find that regular season doesn't matter that much when the Super Bowl tends to be the goal of every team

Doltos
Dec 28, 2005

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mcmagic posted:

It's a team sport and Eli had 2 fluky runs and was a mediocre player the rest of his career. He's basically Nick Foles. You're comparing 2 individual players and Romo's career was vastly better

One has two super bowl rings and is currently playing in the NFL the other is a broadcaster who never made it to the NFCCG.

Ignoring the obvious way that people judge careers you act like Eli was some poo poo tier QB that the Giants had to drag to the playoffs.

Doltos
Dec 28, 2005

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Reminder the Giants fan went over what Romo was really great at and put him in the tier under all time great QBs.

Doltos
Dec 28, 2005

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Play posted:

quick reminder that this is actually the 2019 nfl draft thread

There's not a ton of draft news right now which is the problem when the draft thread is made too early, I've found.

Soon there will be arguments on whether or not you should spend a first round pick on a RB, or a flood of playoff posters whose team just lost asking who they can pick with the 26th pick to suddenly turn their team into a full on contender.

Doltos
Dec 28, 2005

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iwentdoodie posted:

Romo legitimately saved games, having to work his rear end off to get out from under horrendous coaching and play calling. I would honestly love to see him as a QB coach and eventually an OC.

Yep stuff like this is why I hate Romo. He's never at fault for anything and he succeeded in the face of sheer adversity, nevermind he had a HoF TE that he dumped it off to all the time, good running games for the majority of his career, and the same coach that dragged him down is currently taking another team without him to a divisional game.

Actually scratch that, I like Romo. He was a great QB and an even better announcer. It's his fans I can't stand.

Doltos
Dec 28, 2005

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Raku posted:

the cowboys defense was more or less terrible the entire time Romo was there. That's why Eli has two rings and Romo has none.

I will give Romo that he had to deal with some terrible defenses. Ware is one of the best edge rushers in NFL history (which says a lot) and even he couldn't turn that poo poo around. Main reason the Giants beat them in the divisional in 2007 was because of that poo poo rear end defense.

Doltos
Dec 28, 2005

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Cavauro posted:

the dumpoff king's ypa was higher than eli manning for every season that they both played except one. tony romo saved the dallas cowboys in every game they won, and it was the defense's fault in every game they lost.

Eli dumped it off all the time too.

Raku posted:

It's unfair to call Romo a dumpoff guy at all, his oline was usually worse than his defense

He ran around like a loving magician to complete simple passes

Thats disingenuous. He had a bunch of good o-lines during his career and finished with 248 sacks to Eli's current 406. If we take away Eli's first two years and last two years to equal it up then he still finishes with 287 sacks to Romo's 248.

Doltos
Dec 28, 2005

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I think that's just the case of more people playing football = more draftable players. That number should keep climbing every year as the U.S. population does.

Doltos
Dec 28, 2005

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Play posted:

What? It's about players leaving college early, not more people playing football or more players in the draft (either of which may not even be true). It says that right there.

They're smart to leave college early, depending on position it could end up leading to tens of millions of extra dollars down the road. Allows you to get to your first real contract earlier and also start getting decent money on the rookie contract. Every college game you play has a chance to derail your career with injury and is also losing you money unless you're rocketing up the draft boards.

The money for leaving early and getting drafted late is awful compared to staying an extra year and getting drafted earlier. Differences of 400k between third and 7th round. Makes no sense to declare early if there's more competition to get drafted.

What you're probably seeing is so many more 4 and 5 star recruits going to these big D1 schools and pushing out the last crop of 4 and 5 star recruits. College football players have been improving on measureables every year at the combine, it stands to reason that there's a ton more NFL worthy players out there now which means more people for the draft.

Doltos
Dec 28, 2005

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Metapod posted:

Yes being a 190 pound twig or whatever getting hit by guys who are way bigger than you going full speed is an actual concern. Not being able to see over the oline isnt a real concern because no prospect has been short enough for that to be a real thing. Height does not correlate to weight like you think it does the human body is way more complicated than your quick wiki search will say

Yep you're right and Play is wrong. Height doesn't matter much as bone structure and genetics when it comes to distribution of weight, nor does being taller correlate to being heavier. In fact it's usually quite the opposite:

https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC5072155/
https://journals.plos.org/plosone/article?id=10.1371/journal.pone.0030153

Murray's a tiny dude and it has nothing to do with his height.

Doltos
Dec 28, 2005

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Judging from his college stats it looks like he has the potential to make it as a speed/power guy who might hit for average (that's very valuable). Problem is it's really hard to predict college to minor leagues to major leagues. Usually guys who have a higher chance of making it in the MLB hit consistently for a while before getting called up. Kyler has two years of college baseball. One was dreadful, one was pretty good.

As a QB who knows. We've all see the shows he's been putting on and we also saw what happened in the bowl game when he faces non Big 12 defenses.

Doltos
Dec 28, 2005

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KIM JONG TRILL posted:

Yeah he played exceptionally well outside of like 2 drives

I don't think he did. Bama's defense ate him up for the entire first half and then sat back in the second.

Doltos
Dec 28, 2005

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YOLOsubmarine posted:

Starting from their first possession of the 2nd quarter Oklahoma scored on every possession except when they ran out of time at the end of the first half.

Nick Saban definitely didn’t decide to stop caring if Oklahoma scored with 45 minutes left in the game.

Unless I remember it incorrectly Murray turfed a ball to give them that first field goal then ran against a prevent defense twice to even get near FG range on the last drive before the half. Then they were down by like 18 or something like that deep into the fourth and Bama was literally playing prevent.

Doltos
Dec 28, 2005

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YOLOsubmarine posted:

They scored a touchdown with their first possession of the second quarter. Then a field goal, then end of half.

They drove to the Bama 9 at the start of the 2nd half but had to settle for a field goal.

I don’t think Nick Saban has ever in his life willingly let the other team score.

I'm not saying he willingly let him score there was just a noticeable difference between the intensity of Bama's defense from the first and second half. I don't exactly give that much stock to college stats, much less ones produced from an air raid offense, and you can't honestly say that defenses run the same when they're up by 3 scores with 6 minutes left in the game.

Doltos
Dec 28, 2005

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YOLOsubmarine posted:

This is a separate conversation from whether Kyler is actually a good NFL prospect, but he played well against Bama for most of the game.

And yea, they’re gonna call a different defense when they’re up 18 with 6 minutes left but they let Oklahoma score a TD in less than two minutes which probably wasn’t how they drew it up, and that also only describes one of Oklahoma’s scoring drives.

You can’t really hang that loss on “big 12 offense” when Oklahoma let Bama score a td on 66% of their meaningful possessions and Bama averaged like 4 minutes a drive.

I mean you are picking and choosing which drives you're praising him for. Also didn't hang the loss on the offense either, I just didn't think he played that well.

Doltos
Dec 28, 2005

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YOLOsubmarine posted:

They scored on 6 of their 10 drives. I’m not picking and choosing I’m looking at the entire game instead of looking at the first quarter and deciding that’s the only one that mattered.

They did nothing the first quarter. Two punts and a turnover on downs. Second quarter he gets a good drive for a TD. Second score of the 2nd quarter was him turfing a ball to end a drive and kick a field goal. Third drive of the 2nd quarter was an empty drive against prevent defense. He literally ran out the clock, there was no shot of a score there.

2nd half he drove down field, missed a pass and had one drop which led to a FG. By the time they got the ball back again there was 5 minutes left in the third and they were down 31-13. They're down 18 in an air raid offense against a depleted secondary. Do you really think that he should be praised for leading his team to some garbage time points? He had like a 51% completion percentage that game. Am I not allowed to point out that being arguably the worst game of his season, because it kinda was.

Doltos
Dec 28, 2005

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Nor was I comparing him to Trevor Lawrence. I haven't exactly been trashing him either when I said he was a top 100 pick earlier in the thread. Being a top 100 amateur football player is kind of a big deal. I just didn't think he had that good of a game versus Bama in an offense designed to give QBs gaudy numbers.

I mean if we want to talk college football stats I can pull up a bunch of QBs that had better passing numbers than Kyler and never sniffed NFL starting jobs.

Doltos
Dec 28, 2005

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Azhais posted:

Ah, thought I heard it was pretty mediocre. Maybe it was from a fantasy perspective

Fantasy perspective it should be pretty good. There's like 10 good WRs and 5 TEs in the first three rounds (never draft a rookie TE but Fant and Irv might be exceptions). I still think there's a bunch of athletic backs that will be bigger names once they hit the NFL too.

Doltos
Dec 28, 2005

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Docjowles posted:

Didn't Kalli or someone do a study and determine that, if anything, super tall QB's are the ones that universally suck? Guys like Osweiler at 6'7".

We did a study in my graduate course that showed that there was no correlation to QB height and future success in the NFL but there is a correlation to height and round drafted. The professor who had me and this other guy punching the stats into SPSS reasoned that its tougher to be a taller QB because bad teams draft you higher.

Play posted:

I believe he's actually 5'9". It will definitely be a significant departure from the norm. I personally think it can work, especially with his athleticism that defenses will have to respect. But there will be challenges like making throws from within the pocket, especially fast throws like slants for example. The guys in the middle of the defensive line could be up to an entire foot taller than him, so for those kind of throws he'll need a lane which sometimes can be hard to find.

If he does succeed it could open the doors to more diminutive QBs getting a shot in the pros, which would be cool

Offensive linemen bend at a 45 degree angle to create leverage. Do a little home experiment where you stand up straight then crouch down into set stance and see how many inches you lose. It'll probably be around half a foot.

Doltos
Dec 28, 2005

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You can't even write jokes like this

Doltos
Dec 28, 2005

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For all Kyler Murray questions and future Kyler Murray questions please refer to the million of other Kyler Murray questions already in this thread

Doltos
Dec 28, 2005

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Catfish Noodlin posted:

I don't really understand the argument about Murray's build insofar as his ability to hold up to playing in the NFL- is there something to suggest the types of hits that the quarterback takes are the issue here? Because there are a poo poo-load of NFL runningbacks who have the same general dimensions as the 5'10/11", 195 pounds that Murray is listed at:

http://pfref.com/tiny/J6j04

I mean just in general using size as a predictor of how someone is going to hold up to the wear and tear of the NFL really just seems like an impossibly crude guesstimate when what you're really worrying about is body mechanic and tendon and ligament flexibility and strength, and that seems pretty far beyond the NFL right now.

There's a huge difference between running at someone and getting tackled as opposed to standing still and getting tackled. Weight distribution and muscle density is hugely important too. Those 5'10 195 RBs pack a ton of lower body and core strength. Pat White was murdered on the field because he was 190 pounds of normal body human body, not muscle.

Also there's almost no RBs left in the NFL that are traditional thinner scat backs. Almost every starting RB this year was at least 200 pounds and of the two that weren't (Lindsay and Breida) one was injured constantly throughout the season while the other suffered a season ending injury. Being 190 pounds as opposed to 205 pounds is a huge deal if those 15 pounds are muscle. Like there's a reason why weigh ins exist for boxing and MMA.

The best thing going for Murray right now is that it's pretty much illegal to look at a QB in today's NFL.

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Doltos
Dec 28, 2005

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Catfish Noodlin posted:

Pat White got tripped by a shoe-string tackle into a helmet to helmet hit. It had nothing to do with his weight, unless he somehow could have collected fat or muscle in his body in the fashion of a beluga whale's forehead or something like that.


Runningback is like one of the only NFL positions that hasn't seen a meaningful increase in size over time:

https://deadspin.com/how-have-the-weights-of-nfl-positions-changed-over-time-1545701731

Meanwhile, I don't think the physical trauma even a relatively high volume rushing quarterback receives is really on the face of it comparable to even a change of pack back. Especially when you're talking about a league that punishes defenders for taking shots on quarterbacks, and encourages guys to slide while rushing.

Weight increase* and according to that article not a lot of positions have either since the early 2000's. Again weight doesn't equal muscles.

Pat White woulda died either way.

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