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russia's population is pretty drat spread out compared to settler states like canada and australia
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Apr 27, 2021 08:00
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 Still mostly concentrated in the European part but yeah not as bunched up to the border as Canada
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Apr 27, 2021 08:29
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yeah circle the upper caucasus and that's the toronto-montreal corridor
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Apr 27, 2021 08:32
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Looking at that map imagine living in Norilsk, the only city in hundreds and hundreds of miles of frozen tundra. Got to be a hard life. Anyway what I was getting at was that the population of India is staggeringly large, massively dwarfing even Russia which from the European perspective has an enormous population itself. Any pandemic outbreak in India is going to make European numbers look piddly. For example Sweden is held up as an example of mishandling the crisis and India is suffering more deaths per day by some margin (according to many estimates) than Sweden has suffered in total. It's a humanitarian disaster off the scale.
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Apr 27, 2021 10:15
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It's always funny to see the Kalingrad enclave: a little oasis of Russia in the heart of Europe 
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Apr 27, 2021 10:39
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Pistol_Pete posted:It's always funny to see the Kalingrad enclave: a little oasis of Russia in the heart of Europe
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Apr 27, 2021 11:31
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i say swears online posted:russia's population is pretty drat spread out compared to settler states like canada and australia lol, looking at Russia of all countries and assuming that it's not a settler state.
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Apr 27, 2021 11:58
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Budzilla posted:Not nitpick, India could fit into Russia 5 times with room to spare. Yowza, that bit about the guy losing two friends in their 30’s, has it got more deadly or is this just what happens once there are no health services?
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Apr 27, 2021 12:39
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Regarde Aduck posted:Yowza, that bit about the guy losing two friends in their 30’s, has it got more deadly or is this just what happens once there are no health services? I havent seen anything comprehensive about variants, but remember there's 15% of the population that gets hospitalized and mostly recover. If there's no more hospital space, that's the group that starts dying.
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Apr 27, 2021 13:24
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Morrow posted:I havent seen anything comprehensive about variants, but remember there's 15% of the population that gets hospitalized and mostly recover. If there's no more hospital space, that's the group that starts dying. There was a study in the US earlier this year that showed that mortality spiked at around 95% ICU capacity. Not enough beds, not enough supplies, not enough doctors.
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Apr 27, 2021 13:47
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Yeah, I was going to make a post about the high smoking rates in India but I just checked and their tobacco consumption is completely unremarkable by global standards, so it can't be that. In the Uk, the key thing that everyone's always tried to avoid is the healthcare system becoming overwhelmed, 'cos if that happened, everyone that got seriously ill (not just with Covid, but anything) would just die, because there'd be no critical care beds to put them in. It could well be that we're now seeing in India what it looks like when a country gets to that stage in the pandemic.
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Apr 27, 2021 13:56
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I think what might be of a particular issue in India is a mixture of income disparity/poverty and literally just how busy the cities are. The income disparity and poverty means people cannot afford to stay home and the busyness contributes to how easily the virus then spreads when everybody is out and about. Added to that factor is that hospital capacity per capita is very low in India (https://data.worldbank.org/indicator/SH.MED.BEDS.ZS) and you have a health system that gets overwhelmed quicker than in most places, especially compared to the west.
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Apr 27, 2021 14:17
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The author of the TIME article is Rana Ayyub. Her Twitter feed is an excellent (read: incredibly grim) resource on COVID in India.
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Apr 27, 2021 14:29
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mobby_6kl posted:
 Anyways I find myself unsuprised that Mumbai seems to be the epicenter of chaos, and at the same time curious as to why. What made Mumbai this gigantic sprawl of both squalor and Hindutva populism? This is the South Asia thread after all.
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Apr 27, 2021 14:35
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I don't know about chaos, but I know that there's a long history of Marathi nationalist (or regionalist, I guess) sentiment that's tied to the Hindu identity. A lot of Shiv Sena's politics are specifically about enforcing a Marathi identity onto Mumbai, so Hindutva nationalism fits nicely into that. Big rural population too.
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Apr 27, 2021 14:55
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I’m curious if anyone can speak to the prevalence of alt med in India as a potential aggravating factor.
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Apr 27, 2021 15:23
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Discendo Vox posted:I’m curious if anyone can speak to the prevalence of alt med in India as a potential aggravating factor. See the TIME article I linked. BJP officials have been promoting cow piss and turmeric (either separately or together) as COVID miracle cures.
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Apr 27, 2021 15:42
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Pistol_Pete posted:Well, Germany's the biggest country in Europe, with about 80m people, so 150m is still nearly twice that, so it's pretty big relative to European countries. Yeah, I was just wondering how they managed to have the numbers to lose millions of people during WW2 with a population size similar to the USA (at the time). But I just looked at their population graph and yikes. If the war had gone on for another few years they wouldn't have anyone left.
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Apr 27, 2021 16:42
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https://twitter.com/saadmohseni/status/1387147424255381509?s=21 Feels like most Indian journalists giving interviews in the West have lost someone now. It's one of those tiny details that really drives home the scale of the crisis, especially given that journalism is a relatively elite profession.
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Apr 27, 2021 23:31
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Is this concentrated in a few urban areas like Delhi and Mubai, or is it nationwide? Someone mentioned air quality as a possible comorbidity, and having visited Delhi during the burning season I can certainly see that being a factor. Whatever the exact mix of causes, the graphs are pretty shocking:   I've stared at countless graphs since this thing started and its rare to see such a crazy spike, especially a year into it where basically everywhere has gone through at least one wave of the thing. I think blaming the BJP and Modi for this is at least partly correct, but I think there's a big set of unknowns here as well. Different regions of the world spike at different times. Sometimes this seems related to some policy or a big event, and other times it seems totally random. Much of the US has no restrictions at all anymore, and yet Canada which has been cautious and successful since the very start has a higher infection rate than the states. Coming back to India, all those political rallies are obviously perfect places to spread a virus. And yet its odd this spike didn't happen sooner. India's initial lockdown was largely bungled, with huge numbers of migrant workers moving across the country. That's also a great way to spread a virus and yet it somehow didn't take hold. The virus seems to ebb and flow on its own almost as much as its influenced by human healthcare. Lets hope it gives India a break now, because Modi doesn't seem like he's going to fix anything.
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Apr 28, 2021 00:11
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Count Roland posted:Coming back to India, all those political rallies are obviously perfect places to spread a virus. And yet its odd this spike didn't happen sooner. India's initial lockdown was largely bungled, with huge numbers of migrant workers moving across the country. That's also a great way to spread a virus and yet it somehow didn't take hold. The virus seems to ebb and flow on its own almost as much as its influenced by human healthcare. Lets hope it gives India a break now, because Modi doesn't seem like he's going to fix anything. The missing factor is superspreader luck. For example, a single member of a South Korean cult was directly responsible for over 5000 infections. Most people will infect just one or two people, but every so often a really friendly flight attendant who loves karaoke gets infected and spends two weeks infecting everyone around them.
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Apr 28, 2021 01:23
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Count Roland posted:Is this concentrated in a few urban areas like Delhi and Mubai, or is it nationwide? Someone mentioned air quality as a possible comorbidity, and having visited Delhi during the burning season I can certainly see that being a factor. It's absolutely ravaging rural India. The only reason we're not hearing more about it is because the information infrastructure is as poor as every other kind of infrastructure there. https://twitter.com/timesofindia/status/1385113638499872771?s=21 https://twitter.com/ranaayyub/status/1386986819716222978?s=21 Election gatherings are strongly correlated with COVID-19 spread... https://twitter.com/shoaibdaniyal/status/1387018824352890880?s=21 ... to the point where the Madras High Court has recommended that the Election Commission of India be arrested on murder charges. https://twitter.com/ranaayyub/status/1386975110091853824?s=21
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Apr 28, 2021 02:30
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Count Roland posted:Whatever the exact mix of causes, the graphs are pretty shocking: BBC posted:Goa has become the latest state to announce a lockdown. Flayer fucked around with this message at 10:03 on Apr 28, 2021 |
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Apr 28, 2021 09:52
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Gobbeldygook posted:AFAIK there has never been a single super spreader event caused by an outdoor event and not, for example, people mingling afterwards in the White House. So unless Modi was holding indoor events, this should be disregarded. I haven't come across any either. A study I found looking for outside spread to 3 or more people found no examples, just one example (in China I think) of a small scale spread outside. Still, if you have a tightly packed crowd where say 5% of people are positive then some amount of spread there is very likely. Its just not spreading it to the entire crowd, only those standing adjacent to those who are infectious. quote:The missing factor is superspreader luck. For example, a single member of a South Korean cult was directly responsible for over 5000 infections. Most people will infect just one or two people, but every so often a really friendly flight attendant who loves karaoke gets infected and spends two weeks infecting everyone around them. I think you're right on this point as well. There could also be genetic elements here too. Maybe people in India had some sort of resistance initially but do not have resistance to the variants seen there. That's pure speculation of course.
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Apr 28, 2021 12:12
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Honestly, India itself seems to be providing most of the data right now on how large, unmasked, tightly-packed outdoor gatherings can spread COVID-19. The statistics from West Bengal seem to paint a pretty clear picture.
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Apr 28, 2021 12:51
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Flayer posted:Many other states are also not introducing a lockdown so I suppose just having one at all is something positive but from what we know of Covid19 a 4 day lockdown is utterly ineffective. I doubt it will even make a noticeable difference. And this is one of the "good" guys during the crisis, it really is a horrific case of the government abdicating all responsibility and allowing a deadly pandemic to take its natural course through society. You could be talking about the US here.
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Apr 28, 2021 14:22
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Darth Walrus posted:Honestly, India itself seems to be providing most of the data right now on how large, unmasked, tightly-packed outdoor gatherings can spread COVID-19. The statistics from West Bengal seem to paint a pretty clear picture. It isn't clear, nor complete. Many US states have few/no restrictions in place and yet their cases are quite low. Now is not the first time India had a lot of people together outside in the past year. I'm not saying gatherings like this played no role, merely that there's other factors at play, some of which seem to be invisible. Don't be surprised if cases decrease without a change in policy, or if they remain high even with drastic measures taken.
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Apr 28, 2021 19:02
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https://twitter.com/n_waters89/status/1387480447853244420?s=21
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Apr 28, 2021 21:05
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I want balkanization to occur to India now.
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Apr 28, 2021 21:15
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Should he have started a go fund me instead?
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Apr 28, 2021 22:38
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It’s time to liberate India
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Apr 29, 2021 00:05
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Grouchio posted:I want balkanization to occur to India now. if you want to make things infinitely worse I guess that's a good way to do it
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Apr 29, 2021 00:46
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Badger of Basra posted:if you want to make things infinitely worse I guess that's a good way to do it Now now, it's not that bad, just look at the last time it was partitione... oh. Oh, you might have a point there.
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Apr 29, 2021 00:50
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PT6A posted:Now now, it's not that bad, just look at the last time it was partitione... oh. Just gotta partition better than the brits.
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Apr 29, 2021 01:06
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GlassEye-Boy posted:Just gotta partition better than the brits.
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Apr 29, 2021 01:58
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Grouchio posted:Like a state for South/Dravidian India? The southern states have a billion less people than north of the Deccan, and I doubt they have much representation in Delhi... how would this help
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Apr 29, 2021 02:02
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yeah giving Delhi a colony to terrorize isn't an improvement. One of the big drivers of the current mode of colonialism is that not having a territory be painted your color on a map means that you can say it's not your problem if the people there are suffering.
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Apr 29, 2021 07:10
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GlassEye-Boy posted:Just gotta partition better than the brits. Good luck with that!
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Apr 29, 2021 09:07
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Grouchio I am begging you to read a book for once Or even just the Wikipedia article on the Partition
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Apr 29, 2021 13:56
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It's crazy how what's happening in India has been reduced to a minor story in the press in the last few days, all of them parroting the official figures. It's diabolical how millions of deaths are going to be swept under the rug while almost nothing is done at a government level to combat it. In the UK for example (where I'm sure there has been some fudging but generally seems fairly accurate) cases and deaths per day peaked at around 60,000 and 2,000 respectively in the most recent lockdown period. This in a country where hospitals were never overwhelmed and seemed on the whole to be within capacity. India has officially reported a high of around 400,000 daily new cases at its peak (very likely a vast under reporting of the real situation) which would lead to around 14,000 deaths based on the UK model. However India's healthcare system appears to have completely collapsed, testing isn't even vaguely close to being adequate and the strains of Covid19 detected in India seem to be the most virulent yet. I can't see the daily number of fatal cases being any lower than 50k a day at the moment and over the last week or so and possibly much higher. I guess it is boom time for oxygen suppliers though.
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May 4, 2021 13:00
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