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Trabisnikof
Dec 24, 2005

Maximo Roboto posted:

That is a weird takeaway about the Kennedy administration. The man who uplifted McNamara and okayed the Bay of Pigs was not some sort of covert peacenik lmao

its like spicy wings. regular spicy wings are spicy, but the freaks who run things want even SPICER WINGS until it melts your face off.

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Trabisnikof
Dec 24, 2005

skooma512 posted:

Some quick thoughts:


How is the US planning on countering the threat of Chinese submarines when they've decommissioned the Oliver Hazard Perry class? They seem to be relying on Arleigh Burke and Ticonderoga classes for all of their surface based ASW needs. Presumably with US submarines and P-3/P-8 flights making up the difference. Keeping in mind that neither ASW airframe is carrier based itself. The first hull of the new frigates isn't due until 2026 lol.

How amenable would the US population be to conscription? Would conscription even be feasible given that even the most rushed of training schedules is like what, 6 months, and a hot China war will probably deplete US ship and air assets in at most that much time, meaning there isn't even a way to get the bodies from here to there. To say nothing of the economic upheaval that will take place since so much of the US economy is just reselling and distributing poo poo from China.

absolutely no way the US successfully leverages the draft even against china.

right now the best equivalent we can do is just make our populous so impoverished that enlistment incentives might mean your mother lives instead of dies etc. anything like a real draft that would put suburban families at risk? impossible.

Trabisnikof
Dec 24, 2005

Centrist Committee posted:

language is political, it's a little awkward at first but you don't have to use possessive pronouns when discussing the evils of the US

that's why i never ever called trump "our president" because he's not MY president #stillwithher

Trabisnikof
Dec 24, 2005

From a write up of the joint Kazakh-Russian-US effort securing of a bunch of plutonium Russia left in Kazakhstan:

quote:

https://www.belfercenter.org/sites/default/files/files/publication/Plutonium%20Mountain-Web.pdf
Even today, a full-scale fluoride mine operates within eyesight of the Degelen tunnels.84 Should they choose, the mining operation could drill an underground tunnel to Degelen Mountain in a matter of weeks.85

To prevent this and other theft scenarios, the U.S. funded and helped install an elaborate security system at Degelen Mountain in 2009. The protection around the site included barbed wiring fencing, two-meter-deep trenches and large stones to prevent vehicle access, 500 sensors, including seismic, motion and trip-wire detectors, five video towers, and a small, unmanned aerial vehicle for the Kazakhs to use for surveillance. Finding equipment that proved reliable in Semipalatinsk’s harsh climate proved challenging. Equipment provided by Raytheon as part of a multi-million dollar contract broke the winter after it was installed.86 One U.S. official said most of the detectors had been designed by Raytheon for the desert environment of the U.S.-Mexican border. The Kazakhs, on their own initiative, sourced equipment designed to withstand Siberian winters from a Russian military supplier; it cost half the amount of the U.S. contract, and easily survived the winter.

Trabisnikof
Dec 24, 2005

vyelkin posted:

one time they did an audit of the nuclear missile silos and discovered that maintaining all the elaborate checks and balances to make it difficult to launch nukes was too much work so the guys staffing the place had just set all the password to 00000000 to make it easy to launch everything, also they were all on drugs and going insane

tbf that was also an intentional undermining of civilian control of the military and not only that they were lazy

Trabisnikof
Dec 24, 2005

BitcoinRockefeller posted:

I wonder how much of them going insane had to do with the two man rule. You go through training and it's all esprit de corps rah rah die for your teammates, then you get stationed and told to assume your teammates are all commie spies at all times. The guy who punched a whole in the side of a missle in Command and Control said his solution was him and his maintenance partner just disregarded the two man rule at all times and went about their business in the interst of time, but I have to imagine there were people who took it more seriously and it hurt their brains.

the us missile people are also the biggest fail rejects in the Air Force. Remember how they all had to cheat to pass their multiple choice tests on how to do their job?

You don’t join the Air Force to sit in a cold bunker in Minot ND, so they get the idiots who can’t do anything else.

Trabisnikof
Dec 24, 2005

vyelkin posted:

you can tell they're considered white by the amount of spy movies and tv shows that are fascinated by the idea that Russians might be living among us and we wouldn't be able to tell them apart from regular old white people

This ties back into this thread because the one time the FBI busted a bunch of Russian spies living as Americans:

* all their neighbors were like “yeah they were super weird, pretended to have been born and raised in the Midwest but didn’t know anything about the Midwest and had Russian accents so thick it was hard to understand their English”

* the only reason the FBI busted them was their boss defected and ratted them out

The FBI has spent too much time giving toy bombs to children with mental issues to actually catch real spies. At least we’ve got our concentration camp practice in for next time.

Trabisnikof
Dec 24, 2005

skooma512 posted:

Was there ever properly war declared (in so far as the US does that anymore) on Cambodia or did we just kramer into a neutral country and drop chemical weapons and beaucoup high explosive?

the latter

Trabisnikof
Dec 24, 2005

Pryor on Fire posted:

Play nice with the US State Dept or you get no disaster relief from our military. Glad we have that policy of spite, it seems to be working out great for global stability.

biopower is as biopower does

Trabisnikof
Dec 24, 2005

Trabisnikof
Dec 24, 2005

Real hurthling! posted:

i dont understand why its strategically necessary for us to have a hypersonic weapon. it was built to get passed OUR missile defense system.
(i know its politically/economically "necessary")

Russia and China both have missile defense systems, so if we want to be able to threaten to kill millions in a first strike, we need fancier toys

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Missile_defense_systems_by_country

Trabisnikof
Dec 24, 2005

indigi posted:

are the exoatmospheric defense systems especially effective? seems like one of those things that looks good on paper or in a controlled test but would be hard tasked in a live war

i imagine the nuclear ones are fairly effective

Trabisnikof
Dec 24, 2005

this reminded me we spent billions trying to put massive linear accelerators into space, the internal propaganda about included a top secret video narrated by Charlton Heston

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Cm6B3edLyec

and every time a needed improvement is mentioned in this video, the actually improvement is for multiple orders of magnitude. so they needed to make every single part 10x better for the basic design to work lol.

Trabisnikof
Dec 24, 2005

skooma512 posted:

One would think defrauding the government and effectively sabotaging the military would have consequences, but I guess as long as the checks clear everything is fine.

Sure the consequence is you have to hire a bunch of Navy dudes for $$$$, the revolving door doesn’t come cheap

Trabisnikof
Dec 24, 2005

atelier morgan posted:

fissionable materials have a critical mass; that is, there is a theoretical minimum mass of material that needs to be present to make it go from sitting there menacingly to exploding, even if it is 100% purity in a perfect sphere

for pu-239 (the material used in the W54 warhead on the davy crockett recoilless rifle and the us military 'atomic demolition charge' project) that's 10 kg.

so no matter how you design it, it is going to involve a runaway fission reaction of 10 kg of material

i'm not a nuclear physicist and can't do the math myself, but from my lay perspective the minimum possible explosion looks to be at leastwo oklahoma city bombings; somewhere in the 10s of tons of TNT order of magnitude

The W54 is supposedly configurable as low as 10 tons. And the British version contained a lot less than 10kg of material, probably through fancy design:

quote:

It has been alleged that the British "Wee Gwen" warhead was a copy of the W54.[4] Though never put into production, Wee Gwen was to contain 1.6 kilograms (3.5 lb) of plutonium and 2.42 kilograms (5.3 lb) uranium.

Trabisnikof
Dec 24, 2005

The Saildrones are pretty cool but they’re also just existing research drones that have been militarized

Trabisnikof
Dec 24, 2005

A Bakers Cousin posted:

This may have been the stated reasons but later released showed military intelligence knew this to not be true and that the nukes were mainly used to show they could

The nukes were also important data gathering tests and the quality of potential data was a key point in selecting the targets they selected. They wanted to make sure they got to test the bomb on real people before the war ended.

Trabisnikof
Dec 24, 2005


the US might have as many as 10 or 11 bases in Syria

Trabisnikof
Dec 24, 2005

palindrome posted:

Yeah they should have more ideas about space guns that aren't lasers. The gyrojet was kind of nifty but if I understand correctly a modern m4 or pistol would fire just fine in the vacuum of space, and totally ruin someone's day wearing a spacesuit. Cooling the weapon down might be challenging but you could wreak some havoc.

I'm sure they thought about it a lot in the cold war. Russian cosmonauts evidently packed pistols in their capsules but only for after splashdown in case of unfriendly wildlife. They wouldn't try to assault and take over the ISS or anything.

during Star Wars they were researching using space based particle accelerators as weapons but they had no idea how to really make it work, but it sounded cool.

Trabisnikof
Dec 24, 2005

Best Friends posted:

lasers are the weapons of the future, and always will be

particle accelerators

Trabisnikof
Dec 24, 2005

Rutibex posted:

photons are particles :eng101:

lasers don’t accelerate photons
:goonsay:

Trabisnikof
Dec 24, 2005

Ardennes posted:

The issue with that is American air bases would also be targeted and China has AD platforms that cover all of Taiwan. Basically, the USAF has to chew through the entire Chinese military. Stealth may not be a factor as well since Beijing has been investing data linked high intensity radar drones and other systems to make sure they have a 3d map of the battle space.

China still doesn’t want to get into a war if they can help it but I don’t think they are going to play the fool like a certain other country. (Also, the polls for the greens seem to be rather soft.)

I think the American assumption is that we can go to war with China over Taiwan but also that China won’t attack US military assets outside the direct zone of conflict out of fear of the US killing millions of Chinese citizens as retaliation. We get to have our cake and eat it too because we’re willing to commit the largest mass murder in human history.

Trabisnikof
Dec 24, 2005

KomradeX posted:

The U.S. Navy Submarine Force Could Sink The Chinese Fleet And Save Taiwan, But At The Cost Of A Quarter Of Its Boats


Same wargames apparently predict we'll win at the cost of a quater of the American subfleet. Just the sub fleet

Very lucky for the Americans that the scenario premise is set up so that the US can get all but 1 or 2 of their submarines to the pacific in time to stop the invasion.

Trabisnikof
Dec 24, 2005

The other challenge to war gaming this out for the US military is the assumption that US leadership will be able to tell which blockage is a prelude to war, when China has shown the capacity and willingness to use short term blockades as retaliation for military provocations from the US/Taiwan.

Like the premise that as soon as the blockade starts we can steam all our ships from around the world to the area is absurd when you consider the realities of US imperialism. Like are we going to empty out the Persian Gulf every time China does something that *might* be a prelude? Or would we wait until the missiles start flying before making the transit (and fail to follow these carefully crafted scenarios where we win)?

Trabisnikof
Dec 24, 2005

we did it boys

Trabisnikof
Dec 24, 2005

the navy seals use the trick of drinking their cocaine so that it doesn’t get on their fingers

Trabisnikof
Dec 24, 2005

https://twitter.com/CBSNews/status/1624145475975712790?s=20

Trabisnikof
Dec 24, 2005

croup coughfield posted:

can i see some

https://news.gallup.com/poll/1666/military-national-defense.aspx

pick whichever numbers fit your desired conclusion, as that is the purpose of polling

Trabisnikof
Dec 24, 2005

within the usa by tonnage it is trucks, pipeline, rail, water

within the usa by dollar value it is trucks, multimodal/mail, pipeline, rail, air water

https://www.bts.gov/topics/freight-transportation/freight-shipments-mode

Trabisnikof
Dec 24, 2005

atelier morgan posted:

trucks deliver consumer goods to every neighborhood in the country, whereas military production is heavily centralized and most of it has an engine or goes on something with an engine to drive itself around, so you'd expect different transport ratios

pipelines for POL ofc

but really the question for the usa would be less about moving the specific military gear itself, but maintaining internal transport capacity in a peer conflict that lasts more than a few weeks. doesnt matter if you boat, truck, or train your tanks from the factory to the port if you dont have the fuel to do it or the electricity to run the factory or the food to feed the workers.

we've already seen the impact of criminals taking down 1 pipeline company for a few days. real sabotage wouldnt go away after we paid the ransom.

we dont have as much flexibility or redundancy in our infrastructure as we might imagine.

Trabisnikof
Dec 24, 2005

Centrist Committee posted:

no, because the social basis that allowed for rationing and planned production here in the us during ww2 no linger exists, therefore by the power of SYSTEMS THINKING, it cannot exist anywhere else. checkmate!

I think the real circular logic here is more that American never does anything wrong so therefore if there is a war between the US and China it is because china does it unprovoked and with no rationale. This is a starting assumption for most US analysis.

So China would face massive social upheaval because their citizens don’t want to give up meat, don’t want to die for nothing etc since it’s impossible for China to justify war because America can do no wrong.

This is of course insane, but when your ideology prevents any analysis where America could theoretically look like the bad guy, it limits your sane answers.

Trabisnikof
Dec 24, 2005

Relevant Tangent posted:

"war happens because at least one side thinks they'll win" doesn't seem controversial

No one started ww1 thinking it would end up as the war to end all wars.

Trabisnikof
Dec 24, 2005

indigi posted:

I think everyone underestimates the insane Christians who've been able to work their way up the political and military ranks since the GOP made their alliance with evangelicals. those people don't think about nuclear war in terms of winning or losing

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=fNFVN0Jz0rE

Trabisnikof
Dec 24, 2005

SideEffectShit posted:

the dude has 200 billion dollars worth of modern American military equipment and has yet to produce any results

huh? he's producing great results

https://www.investors.com/news/raytheon-northrop-grumman-l3harris-general-dynamics-bah-defense-earnings/

Trabisnikof
Dec 24, 2005


https://twitter.com/LivFaustDieJung/status/1630666657432477702?s=20

Trabisnikof
Dec 24, 2005

Trimson Grondag 3 posted:

they’d do nuclear first strike if it meant avoiding imposing rationing in the US

i think they'd just let poor people starve instead of either first

Trabisnikof
Dec 24, 2005

Ardennes posted:

Granted, I don't think the US would even go as far as the Germans did by instituting consumer price controls during the 1930s, the American solution would just be to throw trillions at the issue hope it works.

Part of the reason the devalution from COVID wasn't as immediately apparent was because most other major countries were putting out their own stimulus packages which meant the relative devalution from the US was fairly modest, but as time as gone on, the US has been continually locked into higher rate increases. I could see a heightened version of this occuring as the only way the US would have to keep the dollar anywhere stable is pretty much to burn the American economy to the ground to try to make up for the trillions it would have to hand over the MIC.

I would also say the results would probably be underwhelming, especially with something like shipbuilding which is extremely infrastructure intensive.

Yeah part of this analysis has to include the pluralism of American oligarchy, not every wealthy and powerful interest stands to benefit from a war and many stand to lose massively. Price controls would be politically impossible in the face of the potential lost profits.

We’d more likely see public subsidies to ensure profits are high while trying to prevent a consumer revolt. Which would only exacerbate the impacts on the dollar.

Trabisnikof
Dec 24, 2005

The Oldest Man posted:

They'll have to get NYPD and LASD blocking detachments

At the outbreak of World War III in America the US Regiment commonly known as the “Viking-Regulators” (VR) was formed from LASD personnel. It soon developed a reputation for brutality, participating in war crimes such as the Paradise CA massacre in 2040 during the Fall of California. On the Eastern Front, the mass shootings of Canadian and New York civilians in Operation Big Bethel were the work of Combined Southern California Police Command mobile pacification squads and their subgroups called SWAT teams. These units were organized by Ed Gonzalez and Craig Lally.

Trabisnikof
Dec 24, 2005

There were 2.2 Million draftees in Vietnam. As of 2020 there were 5.5 million people under the supervision of adult correctional systems in the United States.

I think the idea of massively expanding the jail to conscript pipeline would be far more appealing politically than reinstating the draft. For one, since we’ve massively expanded the part of our population we imprison, we won’t suffer the same quality issues similar programs have seen in the past. It fits the neoliberal concept of a just world so well, going to war will finally give the unhoused “skin in the game.” And of course you could even structure it so it is all “voluntary.”

Would you rather serve 5 years in a private prison for the crime of felony camping on the side of the road, or “volunteer” to fight and get to eat something other than nutraloaf?

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Trabisnikof
Dec 24, 2005

It is an interesting phenomenon that even with the high profit margins on military equipment, an active conflict we are expending military equipment in, and compete capture of the government by the MIC we still don’t see them massively increasing production of military equipment in the US.

Is it because we can’t actually scale the production even though it would boost corporate profits? Is government support for war too fickle even with the MIC lobby, and the MIC doesn’t want to risk the investments not paying off? Are we so far down the neocapitalist rabbit hole that the MIC can’t make the numbers on “make more product to make more profits” look good on paper versus “stock buybacks”?

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