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GoLambo
Apr 11, 2006
Vietnam also saw hundreds of officers caught up in attempted fragging by mostly non drafted enlisted men.

I have no idea what a real hot conventional style conflict would look like but I imagine the social cohesion of US society before that conflict starts is going to matter a whole lot more than who has the hottest anti ship missile.

My actual guess is that the US public's demand for consumer goods far outweighs their loyalty to the state, and that any major conflict is going to be decided politically rather than militarily. There is basically no good reason to die for this stupid country when being bought off by global capital flows is infinitely more appealing for nearly every single civilian in this country including it's entrenched bourgeoisie. The US does not have the industrial capacity to even temporarily server international trade without suffering severe economic shock and the states existing capacity or will to shore up that difference to go on a war footing was absolutely proven impossible by COVID.

It's loving over before it starts.

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GoLambo
Apr 11, 2006

Maybe they should have done something about the weight of the fuckin gun then christ.

If the US Army is really so worried about defeating body armor with whatever their new infantry rifle and MG combo is, because that is all I can imagine this thing is for with a cartridge hotter than 7.62x51, what I don't understand is why they didn't adopt a more aggressive steel core penetrator for the 5.56x45, even if they had to redesign the gun around a hotter case? This stuff has been around from at least the 70s and it was proven to be effective as recently as the early 2000's, so why the shift? It really reeks of american cultural caliber war bullshit and fat headed generals bringing their machismo into the procurement process. I mean I'm willing to be proven wrong and this larger caliber is the only way to reliably defeat modern body armor at 500 meters or whatever but does any of that actually matter compared to suppressive fire and heavy weapons? It just seems really half baked to go back to battle rifles.

GoLambo
Apr 11, 2006

skooma512 posted:

Russia pressgangs people like DOO DOO DOO but American pressgangs people like dee dee dee.

Why not? Who's gonna stop them? The only reasons anybody 2nd Amendments out here is 1. Black people exist grrr 2. Women exist grrr 3. The voices told me. This isn't a democracy, you can pass deeply unpopular legislation and be openly corrupt and no one will ever stop you.

I know docile sheep americans blah blah but dude zoomers aren't going to accept a draft. They'll be posting mutiny videos on tiktok within hours of being put into units. It won't even have to wait for deployments and casualties, a good half of young americans today would respond to effectively being arrested and press ganged with completely shutting down, there is absolutely no sense of patriotic duty or social responsibility left anywhere but the far right and those guys are just going to volunteer anyway. They're not going to do a draft, they couldn't even enforce a lockdown, they're just going to double down on neoliberal brain and just fail to meet quotas, whine, make excuses and cast partisan blame for whatever policy failure they hamfist into being like hiring some private firm to outsource recruiting for them. If this thread has taught us anything it's that neoliberal governments will refuse at every single turn to address any problem that requires real work or money being handed over without some kind of kickback for-profit enterprise that is definitionally incapable of actually addressing the problem.

It has nothing to do with the extralegal powers available to the state, they are simply ideologically committed to never using the government to do anything but launder money. You can theorycraft a bunch of examples of how they could use the draft to do that sure, but I just don't think it's realistic because they just do not think like that, it's just outside how they have normalized exerting those powers.

GoLambo
Apr 11, 2006
This is completely loving insane, like IG Farben workcamp burn through insane. Like "Paul Verhoeven satire just isn't cruel enough" poo poo.

GoLambo
Apr 11, 2006
Just can't stop thinking about those Delta Force guys who decided to just scramble their brains into soup pulling double shifts standing too close to a 6 inch naval gun with a muzzle brake designed to punch your dick off, under a shaded tent with no entrenchment, shooting at max range against some guys who can't even shoot back at half that range.

How the gently caress do you bust your rear end so hard to get into Delta and then just hillbilly yourself to death like that? That literally could have spent that entire time smoking crack instead and have come out healthier.

GoLambo
Apr 11, 2006

skooma512 posted:

The artillery battery was Marines, supporting Delta Force doing death squad poo poo.

And they certainly do their fair share of illicit stimulants.

Well I can't exactly come back and say "how could a marine be this stupid" now can I?

GoLambo
Apr 11, 2006
smh what's this badmouthing the F-14 just because john "crackhead" boyd said it's bad? The man hated the F-15 ffs, he was cool but just as brain damaged and wrong about everything as the rest of the air force in the opposite direction. He thought we needed to concentrate on producing day fighters instead of any of that all-weather nonsense, an incredible lack of foresight on par with thinking bayonets are more important than high capacity detachable magazines.

The F-14 mopped the floor with the Iraqi's in the Iran Iraq war, they cleaned house in dogfights or at range. It was as dangerous and as good as any of the other 4th gen fighters. The Super Hornet is just loving dogshit in comparison, it's like an F-35 with all of the multirole boondogle poo poo and none of the stealth or power. It's slowest 4.5 gen aircraft in the sky by a wide margin, and I'm not talking about top mach number wankery, but in acceleration in within the mach 0.7 to 1.5 sweet spot where it matters for long range BVR rocket tag where all of it's adversaries will poo poo all over it.

And on top of that Iran is still flying the F-14 and it remains a thumb in our eye that they utilized it in a way we never could.

GoLambo
Apr 11, 2006
Don't get me wrong Americans and the west in general was just as wrong and pie-in-the-sky about the cold war as we are about anything else today, and I think every major player got air power wrong, and attempted to rely on it too much, every step of the way. The Soviet's rather famously kept making hard to fly, specific performance envelope reliant aircraft for conscript armies which never once turned out to be a good idea, and for the most part they fell into nearly all of the same traps the Americans did with less budget and predictable results.

Air power doctrine and eventually (and especially) Desert Storm just melted the brains of everyone involved in the industrial warfighting effort, and now everyone is paying for that overinvestment on boondogles over bodies. What's interesting is that reality seems to be shocking that stupid out of the rest of the worlds militaries while the West continues to double down on hyper expensive grift solutions with zero signs of changing course. Would a military disaster even shake that process now? It sure doesn't seem like it is anywhere on the table yet.

GoLambo
Apr 11, 2006

lol, lmao

GoLambo
Apr 11, 2006
Hey don't sweat it some of the most famous soldiers in history had to pay for their own gear, like the Landsknechts. They were well trained, highly disciplined fighters, especially noted for their flexible loyalty. And as we know, flexibility is important on a modern battlefield.

What could possibly go wrong?

GoLambo
Apr 11, 2006
You can have this entire thread pivot to just discussing US Combat Aircraft losses in Vietnam if you want to get into the Real poo poo of modern industrial wars glaringly obvious sustainment problems. The US lost nearly 10,000 aircraft in the war, like 5'600 helicopters and 3,700 fixed wing aircraft, most of those jets (fighters at that). 1 out of every 2 helicopters that served in the war was lost. Literally half. Imagine having to re-equip even a fraction of that loss rate today and you're talking about an air force that is essentially crippled. And this is in a conflict that is nominally referred to as a "police action" or like some kind of war we weren't even really all that committed to.

And there are people in the pentagon that imagine war with Iran is going to look a lot more like Gulf War 1 than they imagine it's going to look like Vietnam.

GoLambo
Apr 11, 2006
Yeah, the US see's a "near peer" adversary in that we're the ones nearly as competent and well equipped as the Russians or Chinese but still lagging behind.

GoLambo
Apr 11, 2006
The west has regressed into the minds of 14 year old boys arguing over wargaming factions for a long time now. It's just so darkly comical and awesome that this entire class of professionals have been largely reduced to magical thinking because their work is essentially just thumbs-up rubber stamping everything a defense contractor brochure is trying to sell.

GoLambo
Apr 11, 2006

Both sides lawyers are just Chinese spies quietly sweeping this under the rug so they can continue their technology theft operation right under the noses of their oblivious superiors forever out of the office on long lunches.

GoLambo
Apr 11, 2006

mlmp08 posted:

Reference the bold, I'd argue the US ground forces are not banking on the latter at all. The army and marines, starting in 2015-ish, started up all kinds of programs to augment their own organic long-range fires and artillery capability precisely because of a lack of faith that the USAF could be their on call all the time. As soon as the army saw the kinds of numbers and sortie rates expected of the F-35s combined with seeing modernizaed anti-air weapons from major competitors, they decided they required their own ability to launch high capability munitions (like precision strike missile) in support of their own troops, plus a lot of GMLRS to take the place of missions that would be too dangerous to try with A-10s or F-16s.

Long range precision fires and upgraded air defense capability became two of the big six modernization efforts in 2017/18 or so for the army. That's telling.

Not trying to be snarky here at all but a genuine question, where are all these Actual Supplements/Replacements For Air Power or whatever that the army and marines are fielding? Like, actually in production and in service, and in what numbers? Because like, as this thread has clearly demonstrated, saying you are going to Do A Thing does not remotely translate into Getting That Thing Done when it comes to the American MIC.

GoLambo
Apr 11, 2006

mlmp08 posted:

On the fires side, the army has returned to divisional fires, increases the size of many of the rocket artillery battallions by ~50% (so similar number battalions, but significantly more launchers and people per battery and bn supporting divisions), increased GMLRS production numbers, upgrading existing MLRS and HIMARS, and is fielding the precision strike missile program, which gives army units organic capability to fire out to 500+ kilometers. Separately, GMLRS-ER extends GMLRS from about a 70km+ range to 150km+

A lot of it isn’t super obvious because it’s not a new type of vehicle or whole new formation type and has been ongoing for several years as divarty was fielded new fire units.

The army’s cannon replacement plan is less clear. Lots of development on the ammo front (both capability and capacity), but not clear what their plan is for the future of tube artillery.

Frosted Flakes is excited about very large unguided tube artillery of the Cold War, but I don’t think the US is eager to go back to big 203+ mm guns for a variety of reasons.

On the more boring training end, there is no assumption of air superiority. So the focus has been partially on air defense modernization but also just getting back to training basics of doctrinal passive air and missile defense measures. The doctrine never went away, but it wasn’t emphasized for deployments to areas with little or no air threat.

Other stuff is more minor. Attack helicopters are being fielded rounds with much longer range of the hellfire now.

In total, it’s a lot of small org, equipment, and training change to overall allow the land component more ability to provide fires for itself and greater expectation of having to survive without air superiority.

Marines’ focus is more on being able to disperse and fire long range weaponry (anti-ship missiles, cruise missiles, rocket/missile artillery), and it’s focused on trying to stay relevant in the face if China’s significant and inpressive capabilities and modernization.

Maybe none of it is a good idea, but it’s all a decidedly different approach from assuming jets will be there all the. It’s just not flashy the way unmanned aircraft or jets are.

Okay so they're doctrinally preparing for the obvious and learning lessons there, and they seem to have taken seriously upgrading MLRS systems, but otherwise they haven't actually been able to deploy many of the systems their doctrine is supposedly working to address? They have a capability goal to meet but their timeline is just like, "when its done" or something? So they know what to do, but they're just not going to do it and they're going to throw money at programs they're barely going to produce (if at all). Inspiring. I strive to match this level of loving off at my job and I don't get paid a quarter of what these consultants do.

GoLambo
Apr 11, 2006

mlmp08 posted:

I don’t know where you came to that conclusion. Divarty came back years ago and is in use now. HIMARS battalions have already been expanding and growing years ago. Precision strike missile began development a few years ago as a concept and is now fielded in limited early operational capability capacity. GMLRS production is up to about 166% of what it was a few years ago and on plan to be about 233% of what it was in 2022 by 2025. GMLRS-ER (150km range GMLRS) is not yet fielded but is doing well in test and evaluation. JAGM is fielded now, today, thousands have been built. For years now the training center has been forcing units to behave as if they have less air power and more exposure to enemy air and missile threats and upping the opfor capability in that realm.

The two areas where I’d say the army has been slowest:

1. their inability to decide where they want to go with tube artillery (seems to be a lot of debate about new rounds vs platform still, so it’s still in development and test cycle while they try to figure which way to go)

2. They know where they want to go with new advanced air defenses and some of the sub components have worked great, but as a collective system, the new ground based air defense systems as a whole had been delayed a few times during test and evaluation. The outlier is that the army did field several new short-range tactical air defense formations, which continue to be fielded and stand up both in Europe and conus.

Everyone wants to go fast, but it would be even more unbelievable if the army just announced a new concept and said “ok all done, we’re all ready and modernized” in just a few years. There’s a balance between plodding and slow and hubristic overselling of readiness for a new fighting concept and doctrine.

E: the army's big debate about artillery is more about new guns and round types. What is already decided and worked via contracts was a decision to increase basic 155mm HE shell production by about 700%+. That increase in production is over 250% now, might hit 400-500% by fall of 2024, and 700%+ by 2025. Which should probably be faster, but considering the effort began in late 2022, they're reacting to their own poor estimates of shell requirements. Europe is a bit more interesting because there's a lot of pledging but if you don't actually pay for a factory to make things, the factory doesn't make the things.

You know where I got that conclusion, you're just being pedantic again and have a different opinion about what that information means. Just because you have a much better and greater number of modernized long range rockets and multi-platform missiles, which is great (for the US military anyway) and I'm acknowledging that, does not mean that it necessarily constitutes enough of anything, especially considering that they're barely able to increase shell production on top of already having too small of a gun force, much less reserves. We're seeing what Ukraine means for modern war, they are too, and its barely lit a fire under their asses to do much about it. They need a 3000% increase in shell production because 700% of a trickle is just barely starting to reverse that, they need to build real actual reserve stockpiles if they want to be prepared for a real actual face to face conflict. Yeah, they're "on track" but there isn't any proof they'll break the consistent cycle of being 15 years late in a quarter of the numbers projected, and they are still entirely too focused on the high performance high cost solutions while lacking momentum in solving the basics. That, to me, seems like a big problem for their actual capability to sustain operations outside of lobbing rockets at countries without air forces.

GoLambo
Apr 11, 2006

Ignoring all that other garbage to get to the good stuff. Goddamn if this isn't a certified, DoD approved vindication of everything this thread is about.

Thank god they didn't learn anything from it.

GoLambo
Apr 11, 2006

yeah four golden stickers on that special ed homework buddy

GoLambo
Apr 11, 2006
"towed guns are cope and obsolete old man!" I yell, as a thousand D-20's crater my position like the surface of the moon

GoLambo
Apr 11, 2006

Zeppelin Insanity posted:

I for one think it would be very good for the US to replace their existing towed howitzers with fantasy projects that will never get made, and I would like to encourage them to do it.

:hmmyes:

GoLambo
Apr 11, 2006
I just assume its a combination of Americans being rifleman / marksmanship obsessed and downright lazy in not wanting to lug heavy weapons around. It's ridiculous to me that the Chinese and Russians have so many integrated support weapons at the platoon level, from RPG's with thermobaric warheads to automatic grenade launchers, and American troops rely on a single machine gun per squad for everything. For supposedly being so firepower focused American infantry are weirdly lightly armed compared to their contemporaries across the globe.

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GoLambo
Apr 11, 2006

Bar Crow posted:

Americans have essentially combined the role of cop and soldier. This means our cops are too heavily armed and our soldiers are under equipped for actual military operations. Military objectives are achieved with bombings or not at all. Cop-soldiers exist to harass the civilians population and prevent the formation of a society capable of resisting the looting.

Just wanted to quote this post again because it's a really succinct point as to why the US is currently losing WW3.

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