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Who do you wish to win the Democratic primaries?
This poll is closed.
Joe Biden, the Inappropriate Toucher 18 1.46%
Bernie Sanders, the Hand Flailer 665 54.11%
Elizabeth Warren, the Plan Maker 319 25.96%
Kamala Harris, the Cop Lord 26 2.12%
Cory Booker, the Super Hero Wannabe 5 0.41%
Julian Castro, the Twin 5 0.41%
Kirsten Gillibrand, the Franken Killer 5 0.41%
Pete Buttigieg, the Troop Sociopath 17 1.38%
Robert Francis O'Rourke, the Fake Latino 3 0.24%
Jay Inslee, the Climate Alarmist 8 0.65%
Marianne Williamson, the Crystal Queen 86 7.00%
Tulsi Gabbard, the Muslim Hater 23 1.87%
Andrew Yang, the $1000 Fool 32 2.60%
Eric Swalwell, the Insurance Wife Guy 2 0.16%
Amy Klobuchar, the Comb Enthusiast 1 0.08%
Bill de Blasio, the NYPD Most Hated 4 0.33%
Tim Ryan, the Dope Face 3 0.24%
John Hickenlooper, the Also Ran 7 0.57%
Total: 1229 votes
[Edit Poll (moderators only)]

 
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KIM JONG TRILL
Nov 29, 2006

GIN AND JUCHE

Gripweed posted:

The second debate is going to have fewer people on stage at a time, so that means they'll all get more time to talk. I really want to see a debate where Marianne gets more time to talk and the moderators give the other candidates follow up questions based on what she said

14 people have already qualified for the 2nd debate.

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KIM JONG TRILL
Nov 29, 2006

GIN AND JUCHE

Lightning Knight posted:

Perhaps my greatest disappointment with Warren other than her cavalier attitude towards Palestine, is that she’s admitted she plans to accept PAC and corporate money in the general election if nominated.

She also took a bunch in her senate coffers before declaring and shifted it over from her senate account.

KIM JONG TRILL
Nov 29, 2006

GIN AND JUCHE

SlothfulCobra posted:

Domestically, I feel like Bernie Sanders may get lost in the weeds trying to tackle everything from every angle at once, and Elizabeth Warren's more focused approach seems more real to me. Particularly, her focus on getting a real antitrust snowball rolling really hits on a thing that's been making me really anxious lately, and just breaking up a lot of the big companies will go so far towards alleviating so much of the issues with corporate domination right now, and feels like it could be implemented faster.

This is nonsensical. Bernie is going to get lost in the weeds trying to tackle everything, but Warren has a focused approach? She may have a "plan" for everything, but she's just as guilty of proposing to "tackle everything from every angle at once."

KIM JONG TRILL
Nov 29, 2006

GIN AND JUCHE

I'm the guy that said Hickenlooper is the best able to handle the climate crisis.

KIM JONG TRILL
Nov 29, 2006

GIN AND JUCHE

Gripweed posted:

If Bernie dropped out all establishment support for Warren would instantly vanish

It’s 100% going to go behind Kamala over the next couple of months now that she has shown herself capable of knifing Biden. He’s going to nosedive and quietly bow out for “health concerns” after another debate or two.

KIM JONG TRILL
Nov 29, 2006

GIN AND JUCHE

Edgar Allan Pwned posted:

when will we see more people drop out?

When the money and/or staff disappears. Hickenlooper should be on watch to drop out.

KIM JONG TRILL
Nov 29, 2006

GIN AND JUCHE

Nonsense posted:

Harris sucks because she keeps backtracking and Trump is gonna make a fool of her if she does that in the general, she will.

She won’t have to walk anything back because she will stop making progressive declarations as soon as the nomination is secured. I honestly think her campaign will basically turn into Biden’s at that point where she just runs on “restoring sanity/morality to Washington” or whatever.

KIM JONG TRILL
Nov 29, 2006

GIN AND JUCHE

SlothfulCobra posted:

She never claimed to be a full native american, she claimed to have a little ancestry, which is very distinct, and not exactly uncommon. Other people went on to independently spin that out for their own purposes.

Like what's the argument at the end of the day? Nobody should ever acknowledge having some kind of diversity in their background? Everyone should assume some kind of racial purity?


Good:

https://twitter.com/AOC/status/1072129227074531330

Bad:

Claiming on your state bar application that you are a Native American, letting Harvard represent you as their only Native American faculty, writing a bullshit recipe for the cookbook titled "Pow Wow Chow."

KIM JONG TRILL
Nov 29, 2006

GIN AND JUCHE
https://thehill.com/homenews/campaign/452738-sanders-says-he-favors-abolishing-the-electoral-college

Bernie good.

KIM JONG TRILL
Nov 29, 2006

GIN AND JUCHE

joepinetree posted:

2800 is the limit to individual candidates. The limit on individual donations to national committees is 106k. In this case, Warren got the multimillionaire to give 100k to the DNC on her behalf.

I still don’t get how that’s not an over the cap in kind donation to Warren. The effect is that you are giving her access to something she otherwise would not have been able to access and that is valued at $100k.

How is that any different than paying a commercial landlord $100k on behalf of Warren for her to use as a campaign HQ? Or to a jet company on her behalf to fly her around?

KIM JONG TRILL
Nov 29, 2006

GIN AND JUCHE
https://twitter.com/BLaw/status/1153752825148727296?s=20

Will be interesting to see if anything comes of this. Given how the "labor unrest" story broke with the WaPo I will be shocked if there is any merit to this claim. Especially, as the article points out, with literally anybody being able to file a complaint and this one being anonymous.

KIM JONG TRILL
Nov 29, 2006

GIN AND JUCHE
https://twitter.com/beardedcrank/status/1154881857395314688


Pretty solid poll for Bernie despite the slight drop in his overall numbers. Biden cratering is a really good sign.

KIM JONG TRILL
Nov 29, 2006

GIN AND JUCHE

Cerebral Bore posted:

Fool, you think you know Numbers Fucksteinery? Behold, the final form:

https://twitter.com/KamalaHarris/status/1155305122911723526

Loan forgiveness for slumlords.

KIM JONG TRILL
Nov 29, 2006

GIN AND JUCHE

LinYutang posted:

Bernie might be losing support to Biden: https://www.latimes.com/politics/story/2019-07-28/usc-latimes-poll-democratic-primary-voters



The Vermont senator has a solid core of supporters, many of whom grew attached to him in 2016 when he ran against Hillary Clinton. One indication of that: He did best among the roughly 1 in 4 voters who neither watched the June debate nor heard or read about it.

Outside of his core support, Sanders has been losing backers, and unlike other candidates, he has picked up relatively few new ones. Almost half the supporters he had in April have moved elsewhere.

About 1 in 10 former Sanders backers now say they’re undecided. Twice as many, however, now back Biden.

That’s a reminder of another important fact: Voters aren’t as ideological as analysts sometimes make them out to be.

Sanders has staked out the left-most position in the contest. Warren shares many of his policy views. Biden has defined himself as a centrist. But nearly three times as many former Sanders backers moved to Biden as moved to Warren.

Is LA times doing that weird tracker thing where they only poll the same people over and over again that led to Trump having like 40% support amount young blacks because that one guy was a trump fan, again?

KIM JONG TRILL
Nov 29, 2006

GIN AND JUCHE

The Glumslinger posted:

I heard that line last night, when she was asked about fighting climate change. I was like, its a decent line, but answer the loving question. You had time for your funny soundbite in you opening speech.

Tinder said she saw Klobuchar for the first time this month at the Lee County Democrats’ picnic.

“She really had me hyped up. She used the line, ‘All foam no beer,’ and I was like, yes! Relating, speaking in ways that we can relate as citizens.”

KIM JONG TRILL
Nov 29, 2006

GIN AND JUCHE

Armack posted:

I agree about the impact of IA and NH, especially IA. You have to go back to 1992 to find a Democrat who won the IA caucus but didn't win the nomination and even that was because IA senator Tom Harkin was running. But Biden seems poised to win IA and it's hard to see what would lower his chances there that hasn't already been happening to him, other than maybe a new health scare.

Biden has been top in the IA polling, but Bernie has been consistently second and the last poll was just a 5 point gap. Iowa being a caucus will probably also lead to Bernie overperforming his poll numbers due to the enthusiasm and organizing gap between him and Biden. Will it be enough for him to win? Who knows but I suspect it will be close. It's basically the same story with Nevada as of right now.

Biden is winning in NH, but not by a large margin, and that is a strong region for Bernie. Will be interesting to see where the support shifts as candidates drop out or fade.

Biden is definitely winning SC if he's not in a coma. But Bernie has been coming in second now, and may be the only other candidate that reaches viability there, which would be a win of sorts.

KIM JONG TRILL
Nov 29, 2006

GIN AND JUCHE
Excuse me if I don't trust a report on taxes by the think tank named the ~~Tax Policy Center~~ co-run by these guys:

Brookings traces its history back to 1916 and has contributed to the creation of the United Nations, the Marshall Plan, and the Congressional Budget Office, as well as to the development of influential policies for deregulation, broad-based tax reform, welfare reform, and foreign aid.[47]

KIM JONG TRILL
Nov 29, 2006

GIN AND JUCHE

Armack posted:

Fivethirtyeight did an interesting podcast episode about how the IA caucus will work next year, including with the new (tentative) rules.

Key points:

- A "virtual caucus" via smartphone app will decide exactly 10% of the IA delegates irrespective of what proportion of Iowans caucus by smartphone instead of in person.

- Registration for the virtual caucus is irrevocable. You sign up for it, you can't change your mind later and participate in person (i.e. in the process that awards 90% of the delegates).

- As expected, preliminary data indicates that younger, less experienced caucus goers will be overrepresented in the virtual caucus, whereas older, more experienced caucus goers will be overrepresented in the system that awards the other 90% of the delegates. That of course means that every campaign with appreciable numbers of young people need to make sure those voters don't lock themselves into the virtual caucus.

- Based on who his voters were, Barack Obama would very likely have lost IA in 2008 if these rules had been in place then (and therefore almost certainly wouldn't have gotten the nomination).

Jesus Christ what a lovely system.

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KIM JONG TRILL
Nov 29, 2006

GIN AND JUCHE

Chilichimp posted:

Because it's a poll of "likely caucus goers", which is, yeah, usually a bunch of old people.


Change research is an online poll with a C+ 538 rating, take that as you will.

All polls are garbage right now and the only use for them is to push a narrative that benefits your particular favored candidate.

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