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This also means the Tories are basically abandoning all of their seats in Remain areas.
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Sep 1, 2019 03:52
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OwlFancier posted:Yeah but unlike Russia I don't think Boris Johnson can move the entire conservative party a thousand miles east and churn out a metal, diesel powered candidate every few hours. yeah that's what corbyn will do
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Sep 1, 2019 04:04
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Jeremy Corbyn is sexy
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Sep 1, 2019 04:28
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Comrade Fakename posted:This also means the Tories are basically abandoning all of their seats in Remain areas. Cummings wants to make this election all about immigration and it’s going to work
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Sep 1, 2019 04:29
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Chuka Umana posted:Cummings wants to make this election all about immigration and it’s going to work Learning from the aussies then
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Sep 1, 2019 06:48
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Dunno if this got linked already but it deserves a redo if so because of the strong message: https://mobile.twitter.com/PeoplesMomentum/status/1167369049220767745
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Sep 1, 2019 08:05
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Unless they've changed the rules lately I don't think he has the power to follow through on that - the Tories still leave selection entirely in the hands of the local parties. Even if he did, the main reason that the Tories haven't rebelled (beyond the usual reason) is that almost all of them have constituency parties that are *way* to their right (which is why we have Johnson as PM of course) and they're going to get deselected anyway if they rebel (e.g. Grieve and Boles already have no-confidence votes from their local parties) so it's the emptiest of threats.
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Sep 1, 2019 08:51
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RPZip posted:Is there a good summary anywhere of developments since the Brexit extension? I stopped following UK news so closely after that and I'm trying to catch up but I have no idea what is happening. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Y7pz7CqWTMs
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Sep 1, 2019 08:54
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Comrade Fakename posted:This also means the Tories are basically abandoning all of their seats in Remain areas. That's 80 seats most of which were very, very close (and the Tory voters in them are likely to have been strongly Leave). They only Tory seats where Remain is likely to be an issue are Con/Lib marginals in the London suburbs.
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Sep 1, 2019 09:01
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goddamnedtwisto posted:That's 80 seats most of which were very, very close (and the Tory voters in them are likely to have been strongly Leave). They only Tory seats where Remain is likely to be an issue are Con/Lib marginals in the London suburbs. Is there a breakdown of how many MPs actually represent leave areas compared to remain areas? It kinda felt like the cities had massive remain majorities outside of Birmingham but the actual spread of constituencies didn't really match that.
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Sep 1, 2019 09:14
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Taear posted:Is there a breakdown of how many MPs actually represent leave areas compared to remain areas? That was the problem, the cities ran the score up but the actual constituency count is something like 400 leave. It's difficult to be exact because the results are by local authority area rather than by constituency.
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Sep 1, 2019 09:43
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goddamnedtwisto posted:That's 80 seats most of which were very, very close (and the Tory voters in them are likely to have been strongly Leave). They only Tory seats where Remain is likely to be an issue are Con/Lib marginals in the London suburbs. Cheltenham will probably go back Lib.
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Sep 1, 2019 09:46
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Considering that a lot of these moderate Tories are already under threat of deselection by organised hard brexit factions who've co-opted their local Parties or facing vote-splitting Brexit Party candidates, I'm not sure how much force this threat holds over them. If they've already decided their seats are forfeit, this is more likely to push them into open rebellion.
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Sep 1, 2019 09:51
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sebzilla posted:https://twitter.com/ToryFibs/status/1167899080325922818 I liked this one, the dial being in the center is just grand: 
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Sep 1, 2019 10:04
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here's how an election's going to go labour: hey so we've got a bunch of policies that are gonna fix a lot of lovely living standards and tories: gently caress you. we're going to keep you poor and if you die it's your fault. also we're gonna do a shitload of racism. half the UK: racism??? sign me the gently caress up!!!! infinite tory hell forever
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Sep 1, 2019 10:04
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imo moderate tories don't have anything much to worry about from BXP in a pre-Brexit Johnson-led GE, outside of ultra-marginals. Few people vote based on the individual candidate anyway, and Johnson is legit ready, willing & able to do a NDB, and you know he's gonna campaign hard on "vote Tory to protect Brexit". You could probably put a fake moustache on Jean-Claude Juncker & he'd get elected if he had the right colour rosette on.
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Sep 1, 2019 10:11
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Borrovan posted:Few people vote based on the individual candidate anyway, and Johnson is legit ready, willing & able to do a NDB, and you know he's gonna campaign hard on "vote Tory to protect Brexit". Having the incumbent candidate is usually worth about 5%. Think BxP will do some damage but be underwhelming overall. The new UKIP on every level. They will likely at least lead to some LD gains in the South West.
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Sep 1, 2019 10:17
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I think a lot of the older Tory contingent are dying off due to it being a chronological amount of time between 2017 and now, so I think more folks will willingly vote Labour. There is also a very odd, but somewhat understandable, impulse to go "Lets get rid of these folks since they didn't fix anything" when a party has been in power for a long time and the Tories have now been the ones in charge for almost a decade.
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Sep 1, 2019 10:17
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Josef bugman posted:I think a lot of the older Tory contingent are dying off due to it being a chronological amount of time between 2017 and now, so I think more folks will willingly vote Labour. There is also a very odd, but somewhat understandable, impulse to go "Lets get rid of these folks since they didn't fix anything" when a party has been in power for a long time and the Tories have now been the ones in charge for almost a decade. Brexit has infected too many people though and people will vote for the Tories specifically because they actually want no deal brexit. I often feel like the centrist celebrities on twitter don't really understand the weird....lust for brexit that shitloads of people have.
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Sep 1, 2019 10:22
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Gordon Brown is reported to have said the EU will remove the current deadline this week to prevent us crashing out and to stop any accusations of being inflexible. Johnson could still take us out on No Deal, but he wouldn't be able (convincingly) to blame the EU.
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Sep 1, 2019 10:23
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That would be very funny if so.
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Sep 1, 2019 10:24
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Taear posted:Brexit has infected too many people though and people will vote for the Tories specifically because they actually want no deal brexit. Has it though? I'd love to see some data on it tbh.
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Sep 1, 2019 10:24
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Not a fan of all this hope is a lie bollocks honestly.
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Sep 1, 2019 10:26
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BizarroAzrael posted:Gordon Brown is reported to have said the EU will remove the current deadline this week to prevent us crashing out and to stop any accusations of being inflexible. Johnson could still take us out on No Deal, but he wouldn't be able (convincingly) to blame the EU. Don't we have to ask for an extension?
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Sep 1, 2019 10:30
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Josef bugman posted:Has it though? I'd love to see some data on it tbh. I'm not sure where you live but here around Manchester (which was remain, even) every loving person over the age of 60 is all in for it. The recent survation poll (the one that asked loads of questions about brexit itself) seems to show that people are still broadly in favour of Brexit Taear fucked around with this message at 10:36 on Sep 1, 2019 |
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Sep 1, 2019 10:33
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Hallucinogenic Toreador posted:Don't we have to ask for an extension? I mean I don't think there's anything stopping them from offering one it's more whether they will or not. It'd be a really funny way to make johnson look like a moron I just dunno if the EU cares about that.
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Sep 1, 2019 10:35
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Is the “No deal is better than a bad deal” line going to end up being the worst part of May’s baleful legacy? It’s insane how a totally marginal view in 2016 (wanting to leave without a deal) has in 3 years become a position held by a sizeable proportion of the electorate, and I think that sound bite deserves at least some of the blame.
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Sep 1, 2019 10:36
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OwlFancier posted:I mean I don't think there's anything stopping them from offering one it's more whether they will or not. It'd be a really funny way to make johnson look like a moron I just dunno if the EU cares about that. Halisnacks posted:Is the “No deal is better than a bad deal” line going to end up being the worst part of May’s baleful legacy? It doesn't matter if the EU does that because people don't care about facts. The reason no deal is so favoured now is because people want to leave and are tired of hearing about brexit on what little news they consume and they don't believe that bad things can happen. I think "Project Fear" is the biggest part of why people don't care - it's been 3 years now and nothing has happened so people think it'll stay that way because they don't understand that things HAVE happened.
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Sep 1, 2019 10:38
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When you don't understand what the EU does at all (which if you're voting to leave it, you almost certainly don't) it's not hard to also fail to understand why leaving it might be quite harmful. It doesn't require an increase in ignorance, basically.
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Sep 1, 2019 10:38
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Taear posted:I'm not sure where you live but here around Manchester (which was remain, even) every loving person over the age of 60 is all in for it. I think being "broadly in favour" does kind of go up against it when things start getting tough, as they very well may do. OwlFancier posted:Not a fan of all this hope is a lie bollocks honestly. This is a very valid response. Taear posted:I think "Project Fear" is the biggest part of why people don't care - it's been 3 years now and nothing has happened so people think it'll stay that way because they don't understand that things HAVE happened. The problem is that fear can only do so much. It's part of the problem with cynicism when it comes to Politics and a problem with our media landscape.
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Sep 1, 2019 10:46
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OwlFancier posted:When you don't understand what the EU does at all (which if you're voting to leave it, you almost certainly don't) it's not hard to also fail to understand why leaving it might be quite harmful. But also because it's been 3 years and nothing has happened yet (because we haven't left yet and also things have gotten worse)
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Sep 1, 2019 10:46
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Hallucinogenic Toreador posted:Don't we have to ask for an extension? Art 50 TEU, para. 3 posted:The Treaties shall cease to apply to the State in question from the date of entry into force of the withdrawal agreement or, failing that, two years after the notification referred to in paragraph 2, unless the European Council, in agreement with the Member State concerned, unanimously decides to extend this period.
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Sep 1, 2019 10:48
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loving liberals https://twitter.com/robinmonotti/st...ingawful.com%2F
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Sep 1, 2019 10:49
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https://twitter.com/johnmcdonnellMP/status/1168084059400155136 uhhhhhhhh
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Sep 1, 2019 10:49
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Sanitary Naptime posted:Haha god drat, the tories are so hosed come an election between this, the proroguing and the brexit party being a thing I think spite will triumph over self interest in the black hearts of the olds As usual
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Sep 1, 2019 10:50
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Yeah, most people that support Brexit simply don't believe that there'll seriously be food & fuel shortages, massive economic disruption etc. The famous but obsure 'they', as in "they wouldn't let any of that actually happen!" Is often quoted here.
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Sep 1, 2019 10:51
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OwlFancier posted:Though as we're illustrating that's under threat of "you're dead if you leave lol" Domestic abuser analogies with Greece may or may not be warranted, but I see the "you're dead if you leave lol" from the EU to the UK more like an Antarctic research base. The world outside the station is horrible, maybe it's a bit stupid that we're here, but as things stand, if you say you're taking your snowmobile and going home, you're dead. Factual statement, rather than threat.
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Sep 1, 2019 10:56
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uh yeah. I've already talked a bit about judicial review this week (& honestly I'm not particularly an expert in it, but I know some stuff). Government decisions are subject to challenge through the courts in a way that Acts of Parliament just aren't. If Government specifically defied an Act of Parliament, the courts would have the authority to say "nope, that's illegal, don't do that", and if Government did it anyway they would be in contempt of court, and liable to have the rozzers come round and chuck them in prison for 2 years. Whether that'd actually happen or not is another question, but that's the law. e: Like, it wouldn't even be ambiguous, it's not just that the courts technically have the authority to do that, they'd pretty much have to accept any challenge to a decision that contradicts an Act of Parliament, "illegality" is by far the easiest way to succeed in an application for JR. The remedies themselves are discretionary, but c'mon, anything short of an actual Court Order with consequences for noncompliance would be loving pointless. I don't believe that even Johnson et al are stupid enough to voluntarily risk actual criminal consequences, either it's just bluster or they're hoping for political consequences somewhere before an Order gets made that they can leverage into passing the Enabling Act Borrovan fucked around with this message at 11:08 on Sep 1, 2019 |
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Sep 1, 2019 10:57
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Barry Foster posted:I think spite will triumph over self interest in the black hearts of the olds It depends, as most things do, as to how many older people are actually able to vote. The fact is that we are just as guilty here of going "They will always vote for Hard Brexit" as a lot of folks are for going "They won't let this happen". Though I do think it would be interesting to analyse how much people believe in governance as merely a seperated out series of things run by "them" as opposed to a system built by people.
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Sep 1, 2019 10:58
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Borrovan posted:uh yeah. If the government goes to prison for 2 years and so are disqualified from being MPs thus cancelling NDB I would probably die of laughter.
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Sep 1, 2019 11:05
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