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Kalli
Jun 2, 2001



Asema posted:

The MNF schedule looks real loving bad.

Oh, it can't be that bad.....

9/23 Bears @ Washington
9/30 Bengals @ Steelers
10/7 Browns @ 49ers
10/14 Lions @ Packers
10/21 Patriots @ Jets
10/28 Dolphins @Steelers
11/4 Cowboys @ Giants

:psyberger:

Oh no

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Kalli
Jun 2, 2001



Quick Reads is up:

https://www.footballoutsiders.com/quick-reads/2019/week-2-quick-reads

Top half of the article is some analysis about how when a QB gets pressured, they have to make a choice... do they hold onto the ball for as long as possible, taking more sacks, do they throw riskier passes downfield and get intercepted more, or do they throw dumpoffs and throwaways and not move the ball.

Meanwhile....

The top are a bunch of the top QB's and Jimmy G, while down in hell:

33. Josh Rosen -126

quote:

28-of-36 for 444 yards with five touchdowns and no interceptions. No, those aren't Rosen's splits in any category. That's what Alabama quarterback Tua Tagovailoa did against South Carolina. Just sayin'. As for Rosen, all of his dropbacks this week came in the fourth quarter with the Dolphins down by at least 37 points.

34. Ryan Fitzpatrick -209

quote:

Fitzpatrick's second pass of the game was complete for 15 yards on first-and-10. The next time he picked up a first down, the Dolphins were down by 30 points in the fourth quarter. He had three plays in New England territory: two pick-sixes and a third-down sack. He did not convert any of his seven third-down plays, going 1-of-5 (a 2-yard completion on third-and-14) with two interceptions and two sacks. I swear every word of this write-up is true. Fitzpatrick and Rosen combined for -336 DYAR this week, a total that would set the single-game record for negative DYAR (pending end-of-year opponent adjustments) if it had been done by one player.

Kalli
Jun 2, 2001




Their previous GM was a tire fire who severely overpaid for a bad cornerback who had great interception numbers because Aaron Donald would cause QB's to piss themselves and throw prayer balls.

Blitz7x posted:

I, what?

I guess the whole "doesn't throw ints, and completes a lot of passes" thing.

Kalli
Jun 2, 2001



hifi posted:

you buried the lede. let's argue about this


The bystander label is probably the wrong choice, but the way to read that is:

When pressured:

Bystander = Holds the ball and doesn't make risky passes. More likely to be sacked, less likely to throw ints, more likely to make good completions.

Gunslinger = Says gently caress it I'm going deep and gives his receivers a chance to make a big play. Throws more ints, but makes more good completions and avoids sacks.

Game manager = Hates throwing ints, hates getting hit. If a pass rusher's coming, he's dumping that ball to the running back or to the waterboy.

The guys furthest from the middle are the biggest outliers. So Favre is King of the Funslingers, while Wilson / Alex Smith treat interceptions like warcrimes. Chad Pennington under Gunslingers seems... funny.

Kalli
Jun 2, 2001



I think we should talk about how the Buffalo Bills have a smart plan. Regardless of what you think about Josh Allen, they've definitely put good pieces in place around him, and hired a smart defensive coach who's got that team playing well.

That's right folks, there's TWO good teams in the AFC BEAST.

Kalli
Jun 2, 2001



Steve Young is what is colloquially known as a right oval office.

Kalli
Jun 2, 2001



wilderthanmild posted:

"Philip Rivers injured in hyperbaric chamber mishap"

yeah, I was gonna say, if any team is a Final destination re-enactment.....

Kalli
Jun 2, 2001



mastershakeman posted:

He sucked in Arizona too but maybe he's a hidden gem like favre or young

His first few passes hit receivers in the hands and were some of the worst drops you've ever seen wait, you're a bears fan, nevermind. After that Rosen was completely rattled and useless, but he could've possibly done something if the Dolphins receivers weren't abject garbage.

Kalli
Jun 2, 2001



The main problem is that there are nowhere near enough tackles that can play at an NFL level and that the coaching is loving bad.

The QB's are mostly fine, it's just that for every Patrick Mahomes falling into Andy Reid's loving embrace, there's a Mariota who was broken by a football troglodyte.

Seriously, go look at Jared Goff under Jeff Fisher compared to last year, or Dak Prescott now compared to what the Cowboys have done for... the past 15 years offensively.

The QB's are fine, the league just needs coaching worth a poo poo.

Kalli
Jun 2, 2001



I'm just saying, if you think Goff is just a guy, then you should be even madder at coaching for not getting production like he had last year out of all the QB's just like him.

https://twitter.com/FO_ASchatz/status/1174036540932198400

Kalli
Jun 2, 2001



DVOA is updated, and it's pretty great: https://www.footballoutsiders.com/stats/teameff/2019

Top 5 offenses: Cowboys, Chiefs, Ravens, Patriots, Washington
Top 5 defenses: Patriots, 49ers, Packers, Buccaneers, Rams

Packers have by far the worst offense of the top 10 teams, and they most closely resemble the Bears.

Kalli
Jun 2, 2001



SKULL.GIF posted:

How much of that is because they played the Bears and the Vikings defenses their first two weeks? Does DVOA take quality of opponent in account?

Yeah, over time it'll even itself out, opponent quality starts being factored in in week 4, but isn't up to full strength until like week 10.

Also lol at Case Keenum's statline through two games. Man, the Vikings should try to get a guy like that.

Kalli
Jun 2, 2001



Nail Rat posted:

Yeah Joe Namath is in the hall. What will really suck is when Roethlisberger gets in.

Joe Namath was at least good in the AFL era, and Roethlisberger has always been a significantly better QB then Eli.

Eli is really close to Jim Plunkett, just with the benefit of playing in New York.

Kalli
Jun 2, 2001



Mystic Stylez posted:

also loving lol if you don't think Eli deserves all the HoFs in the world the second after he went 2-0 on Brady's rear end. put him on MLB's, NBA's and NHL's too

also put in Julian Edelman

Kalli
Jun 2, 2001



Docjowles posted:

god drat it. I know the players don't matter but Wynn owns and apparently he's just going to be hurt forever and be another meaningless early round bust

Now will they somehow trade for Trent Williams, or just mold a new tackle out of clay?

Kalli
Jun 2, 2001



Thought experiment: 32 Patrick Mahomes, each assigned to a team, or 32 Andy Reids, each assigned to a team. Which results in better offensive play?

Kalli
Jun 2, 2001



Also I'm pretty sure in the world of 32 x Tim Tebows vs 32 x Brian Schottenheimers, we'd get better play out of the Teebsters.

Kalli
Jun 2, 2001



Hell yeah. Giant shoulder Elvis.

Kalli
Jun 2, 2001



I want two things out of football uniforms

1) GIGANTIC shoulder pads

2) GIGANTIC LOGOS on them shoulder pads.

Kalli
Jun 2, 2001



https://twitter.com/PFF_Eric/status/1174074875583053826

The Brian Schottenheimer experience, turning a Russell Wilson led offense into something resembling the worst offensive cast possibly ever in the league that's actively tanking.

Kalli
Jun 2, 2001



It'll also be funny to see the Cowboys join the "played the Dolphins" club.

AndrewP posted:

How has Dallas had a less efficient passing offense than Chicago?

Looked at the play by play real quick
First 15 plays so:

Cowboys @ Washington
3.5 drives to get to 15 plays, has an int a sack and a bunch of poo poo.
Giants @ Cowboys
2 drives, bunch of 1sts, threw a TD on the 16th play.

Packers @ Bears
Typical Trubisky stuff
Bears @ Broncos
Quick 3 and out, couple 1st downs on the 2nd drive.

Guess the Int & Sack are just worth way more negative EPA then being Trubisky.

Kalli
Jun 2, 2001



DariusLikewise posted:

The first 15 plays of a game are usually chosen/scripted by an offensive coordinator, then they actually start calling plays on the fly after that.

Yeah, for example, the Packers offense was up 21-0 against the vikings on those scripted plays, and then did nothing for the rest of the game. Because they're implementing a new offensive system, and they're not in sync yet.

Or the Patriots force fed Antonio Brown with their early plays, getting a quick touchdown out of it. then he pretty much disappeared for the rest of the game.

It's usually a good measure of how good your OC is at designing a gameplan and the rest is how in sync your offense is / how good you are at adapting to what the defense is giving you.

Kalli
Jun 2, 2001



<Almost loses to the Bengals and a dead Steelers team>

2-0 Baby!!!

Kalli
Jun 2, 2001



Finger Prince posted:

Plus the swing is only like a yard on rushing and 1.5 yards on passing for the entire league, so even the best rushing team only got 1 more yard per attempt over 30 plays than the worst team, which seems inconsequential, probably because it is.

EPA is expected points added, it's from the research into EP which calculates how many points a scenario is likely to be worth.

If you're at 1st and goal at the one, you almost always score 7 points there. If you're at 1st and 10 at your 1, you almost never score points on that drive. If you bomb it deep and pick up 40 yards, it's now 1st and 10 from your 40, which is way more likely to score points, so adds a lot of EPA.

The difference between the Ravens and the Seahawks on those 30 plays is over like 3 touchdowns by EPA.

Kalli
Jun 2, 2001



Its Rinaldo posted:

<Played the Dolphins and said dead Steelers team>

And hosed them sideways, and gets to follow that up with the Jets twice, Washington and Giants over the first half of the season. :whatup:

Kalli
Jun 2, 2001



Ricky Williams was rad.

Kalli
Jun 2, 2001



Finger Prince posted:

Well thanks for correcting me and answering my op about what it actually is. I still question the value of it, since it would indicate that Miami, at 0-2, with 10 points scored and -92 net points, is equal to Seattle who are 0-2 with 49 points scored and +3 net points.

Yeah, but this chart is just looking at the 1st 15 plays, looking at the opening drives which are scripted by every team going into the game. Brian Schottenheimer is driving a Wilson led offense to be as productive as dead fish.

Let's look at how the Seahawks started their games:

Bengals
D1: 3 and out, 2 incompletions and a 1 yard run
D2: 3 and out with 2 runs and a sack
D3: (Bengals flubbed the return) 1 1st down, then a sack, negative completion, inc, false start into a punt on a drive that started in bengals territory.

Steelers
D1: 1st down on play #1 then incompletion, failed run, sack
D2: Two first downs into Steelers territory, then failed run, sack, sack into a punt.
D3: 1st down run to start, then offsetting penalties, then a fumble and an offensive penalty.

So yeah, aside from a couple of nice runs, that's a really bad way to start each game offensively.

Oh, and here's the Dolphins for fun:

Ravens
D1: A 1st down into an interception
D2: Another 1st into a -8 yard run and a quick punt.
D3: Another 1st into a failed completion and 2 incompletions

Patriots
D1: 3 and out
D2: 2 1st downs into a holding penalty, leading to a sack and punt
D3: 3 straight runs into a punt.

This is pretty bad, but somehow better then I thought it would be. The Dolphins offense appears to get worse after the scripted portion of their offense. yikes

Kalli
Jun 2, 2001




Apparently his given name is Vidauntae, so actually also cool.

His draft profile is fairly nice all in all, I definitely would've been happy to take this in the late 1st:

quote:

STRENGTHS Rare combination of size, length and athletic traits as a rusher. Long-levered frame with athletic, knotted calves. Brings freaky athletic traits to table and is still growing into his body. Flashes instant reaction time off snap and up the field thanks to his twitch. Has enough upfield juice to push offensive tackles into hasty retreat. Generates pop through speed-to-power element. Very good flexibility throughout. Able to sink and swerve around corner if he gets early lead in race to the edge. Possesses hip swivel combined with shoulder turn to slip and flip around the corner of an offensive tackle he's engaged with as a pass rusher. Rushes with forward lean that keeps his momentum downhill. Uses rip-and-stab move and an ominous spin move that could turn into a dominant rush trait in the NFL. Elongated lateral slides can open into sprint very quickly to chase run play bouncing outside. Length gives him a shot at dramatically increasing his play-making ability against the run. Hand usage is improving.

WEAKNESSES Despite talent and traits, production and overall play has been uneven at Michigan. Earned full-time starting nod in just his final season. Needs more weight-room work. Consistency of anchor at point of attack in question. Can be rooted out of his gap by power. Can do better job of using his length to keep blockers off of him. Doesn't make enough plays on other side of the line against run. Needs to show a nastier play demeanor at all times. Scouts question whether he has enough toughness for trench battles if bumped inside or to 5-technique. Held back by his inconsistent play speed. Excessive leaning and narrowing of his base during the play causes balance and footwork inconsistencies. Needs better readiness to take on move blockers.

DRAFT PROJECTION Round 1

SOURCES TELL US "Really, really talented player. You won't always see it on every play so that is going to be a coach's job to get that out of him. Rushers with his size and athleticism are hard to find and they usually go very early in the draft." -- AFC executive

NFL COMPARISON Chandler Jones

BOTTOM LINE "Inconsistent" has been the buzzword that has followed Charlton since coming to Michigan, but he began the process of shaking it during his senior season. Charlton is an ascending prospect with the size, length, athleticism and pass-rushing potential that NFL general managers dream of. What you see today might not be what you get. While his production coming out of college will be modest, he could become a substantially better player as a pro if he's committed to the weight room and willing to absorb coaching. High-impact defensive end with all-pro potential is his ceiling. His floor is solid starter.

Kalli
Jun 2, 2001



Not terribly surprising:

https://twitter.com/benmurphytv/status/1174712904337285122?s=21

Kalli
Jun 2, 2001



No way, Stephen A is an artist.

Kalli
Jun 2, 2001



This is real good

https://twitter.com/Danny_Heifetz/status/1174764770378956800

Kalli
Jun 2, 2001



Ahh he's trying the Richie incognito approach of just doing lots of brazen crimes. Very smart

Kalli
Jun 2, 2001



I think after Kareem Hunt, it's stupid to just cut a good player, as teams do not care, but the league should absolutely throw him on the commissioner's exempt list.

Kalli
Jun 2, 2001



Gonna be mad when Matt Ryan isn't allowed to wear this on the field anymore

Kalli
Jun 2, 2001



BGrifter posted:

Huh, guess we finally know what it takes for a player to be so toxic even the Patriots won’t stand by him.

It’s an astonishingly low bar, but a bar nonetheless.

Yeah all those toxic players the Patriots have stood by?

Kalli
Jun 2, 2001



I thought everyone knew foh at least from that sucking dick while my man plays 2k meme.


Oh you meant like Britney Spears toxic

Kalli
Jun 2, 2001



^^ Until the lawsuit stuff came out, he absolutely was the new TO. last two weeks kinda uh, changed that narrative.

It's kind of amazing how fast AB went from baby TO to somewhere beyond Richie Incognito.

Kalli
Jun 2, 2001



Man I can't believe all this adversity the Patriots are going to have to overcome, I hope they can manage it.

Kalli
Jun 2, 2001



Chinatown posted:

seriously though


has there ever been a bigger flameout/fall from grace/whatever in NFL history than this?

Aaron Hernandez for sure. Ray Rice got suspended and was riding out his DV hit until TMZ released the video. The Incognito stuff took forever to come out, Darren Sharper took years to be investigated....

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Kalli
Jun 2, 2001



Aaron Hernandez was really funny in retrospect because it went from lol, why are the cops at his house? Oh weird, a football player friend of his was murdered a mile away from there?
<Goes to the Patriots facility for a little bit, gets followed around by news helicopters>
He gets cut, then oh man, they're arresting him, oh man, he destroyed all the security cameras in his house.

It was within like 8 hours.

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