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DVOA includes two great ideas you don't get in "normal" stats - success rate and opponent adjustments. Success rate being the number of times a play is successful, something like get 40% of needed yards on 1st down, 80% on 2nd down, 100% on 3rd or 4th down. That's a neat idea, since it weeds out plays such as when a draw on 3rd and 25 gets a running back 15 yards; it wasn't really successful, so the running back doesn't get much credit for it. Opponent adjustments are also a good idea, it's the formal way of saying "Yeah, but they've only played Miami, Washingon, and the Jets so far, wait until they play a real team!" The problem with DVOA is it takes these two basic, good ideas and mushes them into an opaque mega-Excel document. They also do this stuff with "greatest team of all time!" every year to fill content, and it almost always winds up being due to small sample sizes that vanishes by week 8 or 9. I wish they'd just post success rate percentages and opponent-adjusted yards and left it at that; maybe they do have that info in their paid site I dunno. I have written too much about DVOA
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Oct 8, 2019 15:34
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| # ¿ May 16, 2024 15:12 |
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