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I'm curious to see what a graph of "Team DVOA by week" would look like. Anyone know if FO provides a full-season data summary somewhere? Or would it need to be manually scraped from their weekly posts.
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Oct 8, 2019 14:14
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| # ¿ May 17, 2024 00:45 |
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Nosre posted:Comparing week 5 teams to other historical week 5 teams is one thing, but this is more wild: Well, purely going by math: - N.E is undefeated with only 1 decent divisional rival, and they beat them on the road; - Going by stats or the ol' eye test, N.E is certainly stronger than Buffalo overall; - Thus N.E winning the division has an extremely high probability at this juncture; - The expected wins versus their weak schedule gives them a very high bye probability; - K.C's in-conference loss hurts their projections for a top seed (although their match vs N.E will settle that potential 2-way tiebreaker); - So if you put that all together in the magic opaque number machine (very debatable methodology) you can reasonably arrive at: P(N.E in playoffs) > 99.7% P(N.E wins AFCE) =~ 95.0% P(N.E earns bye) =~ 90.7% P(N.E wins divisional playoff) =~ 78.7% P(N.E wins conference title) =~ 57.7% P(N.E wins title) =~ 37.3% Note that conditional probabilities are important to consider for those playoff matches. That is, the probability that B occurs if we assume A occurs. This would give a better representation of what FO is currently projecting for an individual Sunday in January. P(B|A) = P(A & B occur) / P(A occurs) P(N.E wins DivPO | N.E has bye) =~ 0.787/0.907 =~ 0.868* (* note that this specific calc isn't quite right, as we would need to cut out the (N.E wins DivPO without having a bye) slice, but I am about to go into a meeting and it's close enough° given how dominant their Bye% is) ((° note that I loathe that phrasing and will probably edit the true calc in later cause mathematical minds can't. let. poo poo. go.)) So, right now, IF N.E earns a bye and thus hosts a WC game winner such as Buffalo, Baltimore, Houston, Oakland, Indy, etc, THEN FO is projecting an N.E win approx 7 out of 8 times. P(N.E wins ConfPO | (P(N.E wins DivPO | N.E has bye)) =~ 0.577/0.868 =~ 0.665 So, IF N.E earns a bye AND then advances to the AFC title match, THEN FO is projecting an N.E win approx 2 out of 3 times. P(N.E wins SB | (P(N.E wins ConfPO | (P(N.E wins DivPO | N.E has bye))) =~ 0.373/0.665 =~ 0.561 So, if N.E earns a bye AND advances to AFC title game AND wins AFC title, THEN FO is projecting an N.E win approx 5 out of 9 times. Those playoff projections aren't that unreasonable, and the SB game itself is close to a coin-flip. What gives them such a massive lead in the SB Win% column is the projection that they have a 78%~ shot at #1 Seed and 13% shot at #2 Seed (thus the 90.7% bye). For comparison, K.C has the second largest Bye% at 46.7%, and thus FO projections account for K.C playing in the Wild Card round quite often. That extra game, plus a win sending them on the road in the divisional round, significantly lowers their SB Win%. TL;DR: Read the whole post, cause math is fun. Also, gently caress the Pats & gently caress the NFL Corporation in general. Go Players Go. kalensc fucked around with this message at 14:57 on Oct 8, 2019 |
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Oct 8, 2019 14:52
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Burfict wholly deserves the upheld suspension. Sucks that NFL bagholders will point to that as an actual action towards player safety.
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Oct 10, 2019 01:34
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fartknocker posted:Not gonna lie, I spent an embarrassingly long amount of time thinking what would be better options than an IS-3(?) and an M26, or more comedic for the nerds who would care about such things (Like me). Bradley tank from Pentagon Wars vs a fish tank imo
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Oct 13, 2019 16:54
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