Register a SA Forums Account here!
JOINING THE SA FORUMS WILL REMOVE THIS BIG AD, THE ANNOYING UNDERLINED ADS, AND STUPID INTERSTITIAL ADS!!!

You can: log in, read the tech support FAQ, or request your lost password. This dumb message (and those ads) will appear on every screen until you register! Get rid of this crap by registering your own SA Forums Account and joining roughly 150,000 Goons, for the one-time price of $9.95! We charge money because it costs us money per month for bills, and since we don't believe in showing ads to our users, we try to make the money back through forum registrations.
 
  • Post
  • Reply
Djarum
Apr 1, 2004

by vyelkin

BigBallChunkyTime posted:

Is there a second hearing for later today?

Yup, an evening hearing.Volker and Morrison.

Adbot
ADBOT LOVES YOU

Djarum
Apr 1, 2004

by vyelkin
No I didn't. Honest... I ran out of gas! I--I had a flat tire! I didn't have enough money for cab fare! My tux didn't come back from the cleaners! An old friend came in from out of town! Someone stole my car! There was an earthquake! A terrible flood! Locusts! IT WASN'T MY FAULT, I SWEAR TO GOD!!!

Djarum
Apr 1, 2004

by vyelkin
https://twitter.com/Scout_Finch/status/1196939942666100739?s=20

Djarum
Apr 1, 2004

by vyelkin

oxsnard posted:

I don't think people quite grasp how much young people loving despise Trump. Vote or Die in 2004 was corporate branded resistance aimed at 20 somethings. And it didn't work. This is something all together different. Most Americans think Trump is gonna win, and yet Democratic voters are more excited about an election than they were in November 2008 and 2012. That's with no candidate.

Polling was inaccurate in 2016 because their turnout models were based on Obama presidential cycles. Voters aren't approaching 2020 with apathy. Everyone likes to bitch that the country is dominated by idiot racists. But less than 30% of the adult population in the US voted for Trump and a solid half of those voted him in not because they think Trump is awesome, but because he had an R next to his name.

We're gonna see youth turnout at the polls that we haven't seen in decades. Republicans can figure out the poo poo storm that's headed their way if they pay attention. That's the impeachment and conviction scenario. Otherwise they can acquit in the Senate, point at the polls and scream fake news up until November next year and watch as they lose both houses and the executive branch. Next year is shaping up to be a good rear end year

The other big problem is for the GOP is the white suburban voters have turned on them. This is part Trump but also that many of these are younger 30-40 year older moving into these districts who are much more liberal.

They would be best to convict him in the Senate, get Pence in there who announces he will not run for election and they throw another unconnected candidate in there by early Spring, that way they at least have a chance. But like you said they will likely acquit him in the Senate which will cause an even more massive blue wave in response. They live in their bullshit bubble and do not realize the backlash that is coming. One would think that the Virginia, Kentucky and Louisiana losses would have given some pause.

It is also very strange that the GOP is putting that much political capital on smearing Joe Biden which anyone with half a brain would have realized he was never going to be the nominee.

Djarum
Apr 1, 2004

by vyelkin

oxsnard posted:

The best thing for the party would be for Trump to keel over dead or resign. And then replace him with Nikki Haley. Removal is a lose lose situation because any gains from decorum/"both sides" voters wouldnt make up for the losses in the red cap crew

Nikki Haley is now tainted as well. The GOP is going to want a clean break from Trump, especially if they are going to pivot like they need to.

As for the Res Cap crew, they aren’t going anywhere. They aren’t going to vote for Democrats and while they might bitch and moan for a bit they will fall in like because they are mindless idiots that follow what Fox News tells them to.

It’s like the Qanon stuff. I am convinced it is some Goon who decided to gently caress with these idiots and see what would be the thing that would be too outlandish for them to believe.

Djarum
Apr 1, 2004

by vyelkin
This is their defense? Wow...

Djarum
Apr 1, 2004

by vyelkin

Slowpoke! posted:

Chalupa! Take a shot.

(Of Mountain Dew Code Red)

Nonono, Mountain Dew Baja Blast available only at Taco Bell!

Djarum
Apr 1, 2004

by vyelkin
SCHIFF GOING FOR THE THROAT!

Djarum
Apr 1, 2004

by vyelkin

Party Plane Jones posted:

Quote this post if you want the ‘I want nothing’ Gang Tag whenever it gets uploaded.

For myself so I can just blindly search through pages and find people quoting these lines: Mohican

Sure

Djarum
Apr 1, 2004

by vyelkin
Here we go again.

Djarum
Apr 1, 2004

by vyelkin

oxsnard posted:

Ok, so after thinking this over, how does that change the political calculus?

Option A: GOP Senators follow the playbook from the house. Divert, goalpost shift, make it into a total circus. This seems like the most obvious route but looking over who the House will be able to subpoena (assuming Roberts plays the neutral party role), that brings in a ton of witnesses who have undoubtedly witnessed numerous Trump crimes. One witness is a complete lunatic wild card, and all of them come from different GOP factions. This brings up the very real potential for other Republicans (including potentially high profile sitting congressmen and senators) to get sucked into crimes

Option B: Vote to remove, pretend you had a change of heart after hearing the facts. This has all of the downside of option A. Only upside is if senators think they can save their seats in reelection. I feel like disgruntled MAGA voters departing cannot possibly be outnumber by independents coming back into the fold

Option C: somehow convince Trump to resign. After thinking it over, it might be the best option for them. Avoids dirt coming up, perhaps takes away some enthusiasm for the 2020 election and at least has the potential to only piss off mega CHUDs, with the quasi CHUDs talking themselves into it being the Dems fault. I don't think it's possible because Trump is mostly gone mentally, and is more paranoid and deluded that ever.

All of these options look good to me

I think it will be an Option D: GOP makes a sham impeachment trial. Democrats and Media will yell bloody murder but will be unable to do much. They will likely pull in Hunter Biden, the Taco Bell guy, George Soros any whatever other insane conspiracy figure they can in to question. When Democrats rightfully say that none of this has anything to do with what Trump did they will spout out nonsense. The Senate will vote to not convict.

In turn that will put a ton of Senators into bad spots as by Summer it will become obvious that it is a noose they tied around their own necks. They will lose somewhere between 7-11 seats in the Senate and another 15-20 seats in the House. Even if Trump wins, which is unlikely, he will cost them all dearly. Since you know he won't be able to stop himself from bringing up how the Senate voted to not remove him EVERY SINGLE DAY of the next 10-11 months. All that will do is draw a massive target on the people who did that.

Sadly it is all incredibly easy to see as they aren't good at hiding their intentions. Unless somehow they can convince Trump to resign and Pence to not run which is a huge long shot. All the smart politicians got drummed out of the GOP a decade plus ago so it isn't surprising that they don't realize they are driving the bus off the cliff.

Djarum
Apr 1, 2004

by vyelkin

Angry_Ed posted:

I think there's at least 3 who are in for tough re-election fights in 2020 and if they voted to not even have the Senate Trial they'd be ensuring defeat.

Really, dismissing the Senate trial would be worse than holding it and just not voting to convict.

Yeah they aren't going to dismiss the trial. That would be political suicide more than what they are in already.

I still think they are just going to put on a shame trial, use it as an excuse to pull Biden and whatever other conspiracy theories out there on the stage to confuse the public that this is about that not the President committing a crime. Then either vote to not remove or not hold a vote at all.

Djarum
Apr 1, 2004

by vyelkin

torgeaux posted:

And Collins has a reason to vote against him, she's teetering on the edge of being unelectable post-Kavanaugh.

Collins is sunk. She made the wrong choice with Kavanaugh and is going to pay the price with it. I would not count her as a swing anymore.

Djarum
Apr 1, 2004

by vyelkin

theflyingorc posted:

Her main mistake was not picking a side early on and drawing so much attention. Being the single person whose opinion mattered was a really stupid place for her to put herself.

I think she was expecting that she would look like she was a leader and whatnot in the battle. Problem is Flake pulled his stunt and put her in the corner. Whatever the play she was expecting to do became marginalized.

From what I have heard the GOP is expecting her to lose that race. They are going all in on Arizona, North Carolina, Alabama and Georgia. They don't feel confident in Colorado or Texas. With the Pompeo stuff now Kansas will likely be an issue. Kentucky is not at all safe right now. I would look at Iowa and Montana as likely losses as well. If the blue wave is massive you could seen Tennessee, Arkansas, Louisiana, and South Carolina as well.

Like I said before I expect them GOP to lose between 7-15 seats in 2020 unless some miracle happens.

Djarum
Apr 1, 2004

by vyelkin

NoDamage posted:

I think you're right about this. Once they have control over the proceedings they're going to muddy the waters by subpoenaing Joe and Hunter Biden at the very least. They will probably also out the whistleblower in the process.

Schiff had to interrupt Jordan a few times during his questioning to stop him from digging into the whistlerblower's identity. But there will be no such restraint in the Senate.

They are going to try. From what I gather they actually don't know who the whistleblower is and the person they have been trying to say is it, isn't. The reason why they are pushing for that person is it gives them a narrative that they are somehow partisan.

Djarum
Apr 1, 2004

by vyelkin

Ogmius815 posted:

I think this wildly optimistic. Dems will win Colorado and it will be a dogfight in Maine and Arizona. Dems have a shot in NC but will have to be very lucky to win anywhere else.

Maine is underwater, when she votes to not remove Trump that will be it for her. Internally the GOP is already considering it lost. Arizona will be a fight because the GOP doesn't want to lose and put a ton of resources into it but I don't think it will ultimately be that close.

Georgia will likely be a big battleground and the place to watch. Both of those seats are up, the Democrats have been mobilizing heavily there since Abrahams using her organization to build out for those races. If the Democrats don't get at least one of those seats things will be trouble for the election.

Perhaps it is wildly optimistic. I have been looking at recent trends from the last couple of elections post-Trump and a little bit of insider knowledge from both sides.

Djarum
Apr 1, 2004

by vyelkin

Skex posted:

The reason is that she's on everyone's short list for VP

That and she is going to be heading up all of the Georgia races it seems. I believe she thinks she can be more effective stumping and working for everyone. We shall see.

I agree she should run for one of the Senate seats for the record.

Djarum
Apr 1, 2004

by vyelkin

oxsnard posted:

I watched the rest of that Kimmel segment. He does a great job of summarizing the whole thing in about 4 minutes

Kimmel, Colbert and Meyers have all been doing amazing coverage of all of this. I am kind of surprised none of it has had a break out.

Djarum
Apr 1, 2004

by vyelkin

yronic heroism posted:

Throw in a Nunes impeachment

:getin:

As much as I think everyone would want him gone, Nunes isn't going anywhere. See only Democrats have shame, ethics and morals. A perfect example is Katie Hill was effectively revenge porn/slut shamed out of her seat and Steve King is still a member on Congress.

Honestly why every Democratic member of the House doesn't beat them over the head with that on a daily basis is beyond me.

Djarum
Apr 1, 2004

by vyelkin
This is more than likely the next step in whatever Russia's plan is. Those two Shreks obviously are not the masterminds here. They likely have had support and funding from Russia. Lev is also not going to flip unless he was told to.

If I had to guess they are going to air everything that has been done and show that all of the GOP is currently in cahoots with Russia. The reasoning is likely two fold, they can read the tea leaves and can tell that they are sunk in the upcoming elections and to sow more distrust and dissension in the West. If all those conspiracy minded MAGA heads get told that dear leader and all of his henchmen were actually taking orders from Russia it would cause them to distrust all government and news going forward. 20-30% of the population angry, paranoid and distrusting is a powderkeg waiting to explode.

Chaos in America would be exactly what Russia and China would want to further their goals. It's a lot harder to fight them when theoretically you would be fighting an insurgency at home.

Djarum
Apr 1, 2004

by vyelkin
Only in America can the love child of Boomhauer and Foghorn Leghorn can become a member of Congress.

Djarum
Apr 1, 2004

by vyelkin

Ehud posted:

I wish Nadler was a little better at dealing with the bullshit that the republicans are trying to pull. Schiff was great at shutting stuff down immediately. Nadler seems a little more prone to getting flustered.

Yeah. Schiff took no poo poo. Nadler is like the substitute that you have zero respect for because you know they can’t do poo poo.

Djarum
Apr 1, 2004

by vyelkin

BigBallChunkyTime posted:

Yes, and about halfway through the hearing, after she thoroughly and effortlessly shredded all Republican bullshit, they just stopped talking to her.

Yeah the worst thing was not having her by herself and force them to interact with her.

Djarum
Apr 1, 2004

by vyelkin

Fister Roboto posted:

lmao of course not

Nadler's doing a horrible job with this compared to Schiff.

Yeah Nadler is not up to this task.

Djarum
Apr 1, 2004

by vyelkin
Nadler is a disaster.

Djarum
Apr 1, 2004

by vyelkin

actionjackson posted:

I assume he must have some dirt on other Fox News people to be able to say this on air and not lose his job

No he is one of their token people who actually says some truthful things so they can go “Look see we are actually fair and balanced!” It’s all bullshit.

Djarum
Apr 1, 2004

by vyelkin
I am quite surprised that Fox hasn’t turned on Trump yet. Paul Ryan, who is a garbage human being but is no fan of Trump, took over as one of the heads of Fox News awhile back. We all know he has an axe to grind with him.

We all know Fox is going to turn on him at some point, it is just when.

Djarum
Apr 1, 2004

by vyelkin

nine-gear crow posted:

If anything that kind of shows how incompetent/inconsequential/cowardly Paul Ryan is that he’s so far failed to fire a single shot at Trump from what should be a consequence-free fortress position.

The only thing I can think of is that he is waiting for the right moment to cause the most amount of pain for him. I would have thought turning on him during impeachment would be it but I can see him being petty enough to not want to give a “win” to the Democrats.

Likely it will happen during the end of the campaign. No doubt Fox has some dirt on him that they can just happen to pull out, use that is the “final straw” that causes the GOP to turn on him. If the bullshit hose turns off then he will be in serious trouble.

Trump can lose, the GOP will take some serious hits but Ryan can be the kingmaker and ringleader of the new GOP which I am certain is what he is wanting.

Djarum
Apr 1, 2004

by vyelkin

SalTheBard posted:

Gaetz looked hosed up.

Cocaine is a hell of a drug.

Djarum
Apr 1, 2004

by vyelkin
Nadler is at least trying to get a handle on things today. Likely too little too late.

Djarum
Apr 1, 2004

by vyelkin

ManBoyChef posted:

Gaetz really bothers the hell out of me. He is such an entitled little bastard.

His father was heavily in Florida politics for decades and basically engineered for him to get the seat. He has several DUI stops that have magically disappeared over the years. From talking to people who grew up around him there is a lot of things that he has done that got swept under the rug because of his daddy.

Also it is pretty much an open secret that he has a big drug and alcohol problem.

Djarum
Apr 1, 2004

by vyelkin
"I'm not as good of counsel."

Djarum
Apr 1, 2004

by vyelkin

Ehud posted:

STOP UNCOVERING OUR CRIMES!!!

WE’LL DO IT TO YOU!




if you know know there were any....

Djarum
Apr 1, 2004

by vyelkin

Retro42 posted:

If it makes anyone feel better, MSNBC cut off live coverage right as Gaetz time started.

Cut off Gaetz for Jim Comey. If that isn't a "gently caress you" I don't know what is.

Djarum
Apr 1, 2004

by vyelkin

eke out posted:

because they're incredibly butthurt that Devin Nunes got caught? and, apparently, they think that someone "gave an order" to figure out who was associated with what phone number, which is absolutely baffling

That's because in the Conservative mind think someone has to order to do things like this, because in their world none of them do anything like this without orders.

It's like any organization that has questionable morals or inner workings. You are encouraged to not dig into anything and to mind your own business.

Also one would think they want to give some payback for taking out one of theirs.

Djarum
Apr 1, 2004

by vyelkin
Trump is going to insist on it being a circus. He is not content at just getting away with it, he needs to make it a spectacle to not only soothe his own ego but to try and put shade on his opponents, real or imagined.

The GOP Senate is ultimately going to be forced into doing it since if they don't the Fanta Menace will unload on all of them which will ultimately do them all more harm with their chances of re-election.

Now doing the circus and then forcing a vote is going to cost them in the end as well and everyone in the GOP is well aware except for Trump. The idiot thinks that this is going to help him in some way. I honestly would not be surprised if he doesn't testify, since in his mind everyone else is wrong.

Djarum
Apr 1, 2004

by vyelkin

bird food bathtub posted:

Piss Baby would have loving none of that. Anyone that didn't gratuitously slob his knob while chanting "Perfect phone call, read the transcript, witch hunt!" was branded a heretic and cast into the wilderness via tweet.

That is the one thing I have never understood about the GOP, but really anyone who Trump rails against on Twitter. I'd fight back, make fun of him and use his many weak points against him. The guy obviously hates being ridiculed. Remember how out of sorts he got against Rosie loving O'Donnell would start to gently caress with him? The problem is she always treated him seriously, instead of the joke he is. If someone would treat him like a joke it would smother his fragile ego.

Djarum
Apr 1, 2004

by vyelkin

1glitch0 posted:

I don't know about that, but I was 18 when the Clinton thing was going on and everyone at school and at my professional level job were all saying, "This is stupid, right? It was a goddamn blowjob." Clinton was wildly popular and literally no one I knew during that time cared at all and thought the entire thing was stupid. I didn't watch the day to day hearing back then like I do now, but the basic consensus was it was very dumb.

Then Al Gore got pissy about it and refused to let the wildly popular president campaign for him and then the world ended. The Clinton impeachment and the Trump impeachment are pretty much not analogous in any way for so many reasons.

It being stupid and petty was the general conscious at the time. Granted the Right Wing Media Echo Chamber™ was still in it's infancy at that time. You had Rush and some lesser known AM radio idiots but that was the extent of it. A few years later Fox had become the machine it became. A big reason for that happening is actually Turner being bought by AOL-Timer/Warner. Without Ted Turner backing CNN and in turn Headline News as well both channels went from being effectively public service stations bringing straight news to needing to get big ratings and make money. Hence the race to the bottom in terms of news coverage and the start of the 24 hour news cycle. Fox got their winning strategy early, which everyone else followed with their own spin, and used that advantage to turn a generation of people into mindless, brainwashed idiots.

Gore not wanting to have Clinton campaign for him was a calculated risked. I have read a lot of interviews about the thinking behind it. The impeachment actually wasn't the biggest reason why he didn't have him stump for him, although it was part of the reasoning. The biggest reasoning was they felt that Clinton would overshadow Gore, which they were likely right. It is also why Hillary tried to avoid having Obama campaign for her as well, again a mistake in hindsight.

We would be in a VERY different world if Ted Turner had not sold Turner. It is one of the major turning points in all media and will be looked at by historians as much more important than we realize now.

Djarum
Apr 1, 2004

by vyelkin

1glitch0 posted:

Everything I've read at the time said that the primary reason for Gore turning on Clinton was because he was kept in the dark about the Lewinsky stuff and was simply bitter about it. I could be wrong, tho.

I totally agree that Turner losing control of CNN was way more gigantic than people have ever really understood. CNN was somewhat respectable when Turner had control. When he sold it the entire thing went into decline. Much more importantly than the start of the decline of cable news that has failed the entire country in every way, him selling also destroyed the American pro wrestling industry at the same time.

I'm obviously joking about the latter, but a world where a competent news network competed against Fox News, and WWE was sent into bankruptcy before elevating Donald Trump and taking Saudi blood money would be a much better world.

There was a bit of that but from interviews with the people running the campaign that was an easier thing to say publicly than saying that Gore was so easily overshadowed. It makes sense really. Granted Gore made a ton of boneheaded moves during that race. Lieberman being the VP just for starters alienated a lot of people on the left that voted for Nader which effectively lost the election for him. Also him not declaring victory that night and allowing Bush and the GOP to lay the groundwork to take the election was also stupid.

Ted Turner, for his faults and he has had a few, generally has done more good for the United States than most people over the last 40 years. It is an utter shame what happened to almost all of his life's work and how badly it was all handled. His diagnosis recently is an even sadder thing.

Adbot
ADBOT LOVES YOU

Djarum
Apr 1, 2004

by vyelkin

LegionAreI posted:

Oh he definitely would have been hosed if he smacked them down about it, it's more that the rule is completely stupid in the first place and has no purpose other than to let people grandstand. Which means nobody is ever going to change it because if there's one thing all politicians can agree on, it's that grandstanding is wonderful.

I do think he did well with the "minority day of witnesses" or whatever bullshit Collins wouldn't shut up about for both judiciary hearings. There wasn't a way to win that one either, but he did his due diligence and was pretty calm about it. It's utterly infuriating when someone tries to gently caress you with the bylaws or rulebook, and when someone did it to me I can't say I handled it as well as he did. Nadler has all the charisma of a brick wall, but he's keeping it together at least.

I do hope they pick someone more fired up to run the "prosecution." Preferably Schiff since that'd make Trump pop a blood vessel, but I'd take Jackson-Lee or Swalwell.

Schiff would be the best one to run the trial. Swalwell is great but he is best used as an assassin role where you bring him out to kill something dead. Basically he does what Gym Jordan and Gaetz are supposed to be doing if they weren't utterly incompetent.

Really the best thing for the Democrats to do is just be bored with the GOP's huff and puffs since if you engage that becomes the story. There will be more than enough fireworks in the Senate despite what Moscow Mitch wants.

  • 1
  • 2
  • 3
  • 4
  • 5
  • Post
  • Reply