January Current Events: 50 is my favorite caliber AND my BMI

The Something Awful Forums > Discussion > Internet VFW > January Current Events: 50 is my favorite caliber AND my BMI

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Bored As Fuck: Jan 1, 2006; Fun Shoe

Contrapoints rules, especially her videos on the right wing and climate change/apocalypse.

# ¿ Jan 2, 2020 19:51

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# ¿ May 16, 2024 18:19

Bored As Fuck: Jan 1, 2006; Fun Shoe

Laranzu posted:

Clue 3: Forever War edition. Who had the United States in the airport parking lot with the drone strike?

https://mobile.twitter.com/AlSuraEnglish/status/1212875885520379905?s=20

Jesus Christ. Iran is going to strong arm Iraq and we're going to get forced out. Either that or we start another loving war.

# ¿ Jan 3, 2020 00:55

Bored As Fuck: Jan 1, 2006; Fun Shoe

UP THE BUM NO BABY posted:

A whole lot of dead wedding attendees beg to differ

Those were good aim, absolutely bad intel or image intelligence.

Who would've thought that firing missiles at people shooting up in the air in countries that celebrate by shooting in the air, would be a bad idea.

# ¿ Jan 3, 2020 00:58

Bored As Fuck: Jan 1, 2006; Fun Shoe

Mr. Nice! posted:

For those who don't immediately recognize that name, he was an IRGC major general in charge of the quds.

Yeah. This guy was a huge piece of poo poo. Absolutely helped to enable the death of Americans in Iraq.

Good articles on the guy:

https://www.newyorker.com/magazine/2013/09/30/the-shadow-commander?verso=true

https://foreignpolicy.com/gt-essay/irans-deadly-puppet-master-qassem-suleimani/

quote:

The decision not to act is often the hardest one to make—and it isn’t always right. In 2007, I watched a string of vehicles pass from Iran into northern Iraq. I had been serving as the head of the U.S. military’s Joint Special Operations Command (JSOC) for four years, working to stem the terrorism that had devastated the region, and I had become accustomed to making tough choices. But on that January night, the choice was particularly tricky: whether or not to attack a convoy that included Qassem Suleimani, the head of Iran’s elite Quds Force—an organization roughly analogous to a combination of the CIA and JSOC in the United States.

There was good reason to eliminate Suleimani. At the time, Iranian-made roadside bombs built and deployed at his command were claiming the lives of U.S. troops across Iraq. But to avoid a firefight, and the contentious politics that would follow, I decided that we should monitor the caravan, not strike immediately. By the time the convoy had reached Erbil, Suleimani had slipped away into the darkness.

# ¿ Jan 3, 2020 02:24

Bored As Fuck: Jan 1, 2006; Fun Shoe

Meshka posted:

Why? Suleimani is responsible for a lot of American deaths. Good kill.

It's awesome that he's dead but this could be seen by Iran as an act of war.

Acting glib and tweeting YEAH WE loving KNEW HE WAS THERE, gently caress YOU WE'D DO IT AGAIN is not going to help calm things down for fucks sake.

# ¿ Jan 3, 2020 04:02

Bored As Fuck: Jan 1, 2006; Fun Shoe

Hot Karl Marx posted:

https://twitter.com/JasonSCampbell/status/1212930634315948033

Lmao why the gently caress would we listen to this lying piece of poo poo?

# ¿ Jan 3, 2020 04:21

Bored As Fuck: Jan 1, 2006; Fun Shoe

Hot Karl Marx posted:

https://twitter.com/anthony/status/1212939219267702785?s=21

Does he have a Top Secret / SCI with the correct code words to have been read in on this?

BUTTERYMALES

# ¿ Jan 3, 2020 04:51

Bored As Fuck: Jan 1, 2006; Fun Shoe

MRC48B posted:

Holy jesus christ this isn't true these days. There's a million ways they can gently caress with us, this isn't 2003.

Yeah. Even just having hackers attack the criminally insecure Industrial Control Systems (ICS) like SCADA systems related to our manufacturing, oil and gas, utility, or maritime port sector of our economy would completely gently caress us.

# ¿ Jan 3, 2020 05:11

Bored As Fuck: Jan 1, 2006; Fun Shoe

Meshka posted:

Think of it as a parity of power. They have none. For every attack against American citizens the relatianion will be ten fold. Maybe attacking american personel was not the wise strategic choice on their part.

They have "none?" Are you loving high?

# ¿ Jan 3, 2020 05:13

Bored As Fuck: Jan 1, 2006; Fun Shoe

Chichevache posted:

I get where you're going with this, but it might not be the best thing to post on a forum.

Literally any thinkpiece on the dangers of terrorism would have ideas like this. US govt agencies have for years warned of the vulnerability of our water supplies. Magazines like AQ's Inspire told people to poison water supplies. It's a tactic as old as organized warfare itself. I don't think some guy posting about it here is going to get the NSA guy lurking on our forums in a tizzy.

Edit: As stated above,the threat of weaponized fentanyl or carfentanil has been warned about repeatedly, as well.

# ¿ Jan 3, 2020 05:35

Bored As Fuck: Jan 1, 2006; Fun Shoe

Proud Christian Mom posted:

is there a round about number of how many dead Iranians, Iraqis and any other group that will assuage some of yalls bruised egos

It all depends on how hosed things get and how far this poo poo escalates. 300k-500k dead easy if this starts another civil war in Iraq.

The Iranian backed "Popular" Mobilization Units that are trained, bought, and paid for by Iran are not exactly popular in a lot of the country. I could see this poo poo devolving into another civil war, but I think the most likely scenario is one where we're forced to leave Iraq and Iran will basically make it a puppet state.

# ¿ Jan 3, 2020 05:46

Bored As Fuck: Jan 1, 2006; Fun Shoe

M_Gargantua posted:

A Hit? The military industrial complex has bombs to sell! The economy will soar.

Not if they retaliate with cyber attacks.

# ¿ Jan 3, 2020 06:06

Bored As Fuck: Jan 1, 2006; Fun Shoe

https://www.vox.com/world/2019/7/8/18693297/us-iran-war-trump-nuclear-iraq

What a War with Iran Might Look Like

quote:

How Iran might try to win the war

Retired Marine Lt. Gen. Vincent Stewart left his post as the No. 2 at US Cyber Command in 2019, ending a decorated four-decade career. Toward the end of it, he spent his time at the forefront of the military intelligence and cybersecurity communities.

If anyone has the most up-to-date information on how Iran may fight the US, then, it’s Stewart.

“The Iranian strategy would be to avoid, where possible, direct conventional force-on-force operations,” he wrote for the Cipher Brief on July 2, 2019. “They would attempt to impose cost on a global scale, striking at US interests through cyber operations and targeted terrorism with the intent of expanding the conflict, while encouraging the international community to restrain America’s actions.”

In other words, Tehran can’t match Washington’s firepower. But it can spread chaos in the Middle East and around the world, hoping that a war-weary US public, an intervention-skeptical president, and an angered international community cause America to stand down.

That may seem like a huge task — and it is — but experts believe the Islamic Republic has the capability, knowhow, and will to pull off such an ambitious campaign. “The Iranians can escalate the situation in a lot of different ways and in a lot of different places,” Hanna told me. “They have the capacity to do a lot of damage.”

Take what it could do in the Middle East. Iran’s vast network of proxies and elite units — like Soleimani’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps — could be activated to kill American troops, diplomats, and citizens throughout the region. US troops in Syria are poorly defended and have little support, making them easy targets, experts say. America also has thousands of civilians, troops, and contractors in Iraq, many of whom work in areas near where Iranian militias operate within the country.

US allies would also be prime targets. Hezbollah, an Iran-backed terrorist group in Lebanon, might attack Israel with rockets and start its own brutal fight. We’ve heard this story before: In 2006, they battled in a month-long war where the militant group fired more than 4,000 rockets into Israel, and Israeli forces fired around 7,000 bombs and missiles into Lebanon.

About 160 Israelis troops and civilians died, according to the Israel Ministry of Foreign Affairs, and about 1,100 Lebanese — most of them civilians — perished, per Human Rights Watch, a US-headquartered advocacy organization. It also reports about 4,400 Lebanese were injured, and around 1 million people were displaced.

But that’s not all. Iran could encourage terrorist organizations or other proxies to strike inside Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates, and other Gulf nations. Last year, it planned and executed drone strikes on two major Saudi oil facilities deep inside the kingdom, convulsing world markets. Its support for Houthis rebels in Yemen would mostly certainly increase, offering them more weapons and funds to attack Saudi Arabia’s airports, military bases, and energy plants.

The US government on April 8, 2019, said it had designated the IRGC as a terrorist organization, marking the first time a US government has made such a designation on a foreign government’s organization.

Experts note that the Islamic Republic likely has sleeper cells in Europe and Latin America, and they could resurface in dramatic and violent ways. In 1994, for example, Iranian-linked terrorists bombed the hub of the Jewish community in Argentina’s capital, Buenos Aires, killing 85 people and injuring roughly 300 more.

That remains the largest terrorist attack in Latin America’s history, and the possibility for an even bigger one exists. In 2018, Argentina arrested two men suspected of having ties with Hezbollah.

But Chris Musselman, formerly the National Security Council’s counterterrorism director under Trump, told me the US and its allies may have the most trouble containing the proxy swarm in Western Africa.
“We could see a conflict that spread quickly to places the US may not be able to protect people, and it’s a fight that we are grossly unprepared for,” he said, adding that there’s a strong Hezbollah presence in the region and American embassy security there isn’t great. Making matters worse, he continued, the US isn’t particularly good at collecting intelligence there, meaning some militants could operate relatively under the radar.

“This isn’t really a law enforcement function that US can take on a global scale,” he said. It would require that countries unwittingly hosting proxies to lead on defeating the Iranian-linked fighters, with US support when needed.

The chaos would also extend into the cyber realm. Iran is a major threat to the US in cyberspace. Starting in 2011, Iran attacked more than 40 American banks, including JPMorgan Chase and Bank of America. The attack made it so the banks had trouble serving its customers and customers had trouble using the bank’s services.

In 2012, Iran released malware into the networks of Saudi Aramco, a major oil company, which erased documents, emails, and other files on around 75 percent of the company’s computers — replacing them with an image of a burning American flag.
In the middle of a war, one could imagine Tehran’s hackers wreaking even more havoc.

“I would expect them to have begun selected targeting through socially-engineered phishing activities focused on the oil and gas sector, the financial sector and the electric power grid in that order,” Stewart wrote. “There may be instances now where they already have some persistent access. If they do, I expect they would use it, or risk losing the access and employ that capability early in the escalation of the crisis.”

# ¿ Jan 3, 2020 23:19

Bored As Fuck: Jan 1, 2006; Fun Shoe

bulletsponge13 posted:

It wouldn't take a shitload of Marines. We literally have dudes who make their living snatching people from cars and getting the gently caress out of dodge.
I would imagine they could have had him on a bird and out of the country in 30 minutes from hit. It wouldn't need SSE- interdict, kill the guards, snatch the dudes- your at the airport- throw that gently caress on a 60, fly them to a waiting aircraft- boom. I'm sure it wouldn't be so simple and quick, but if you are going to risk a massive escalation, why not make it worth it in the long term?
Again. Maybe I'm just dumb- I just can't imagine this was a better strategic course of action than capturing him.

We have soldiers stationed at the airport, along side Iraqi army and others. Who's to say that JSOC staging a snatch and grab wouldn't immediately start a firefight because Iraqi army guys have no idea who is taking the Quds Commander. Because we sure as gently caress couldn't give the Iraqis any advance warning. It could turn into a bloodbath.

Also, what are the benefits of having him alive? There are none. Trying to use him as a bargaining chip would be tricky, and I wouldn't trust even a competent administration to do that. The legal clusterfuck that would ensue by having taken him prisoner would be worse than the one we're dealing with now. We didn't even want UBL alive for that reason (and because we wouldn't want him to have a chance to speak/preach during a trial). And I'd imagine that the shitshow of a trial (if there was one) would require a ton of classified info being released.

Bored As Fuck fucked around with this message at 00:40 on Jan 4, 2020

# ¿ Jan 4, 2020 00:32

Bored As Fuck: Jan 1, 2006; Fun Shoe

facialimpediment posted:

This long thread is absolutely everywhere, as it's basically the NYT's star ISIS reporter. Her and her team put together the massive "ISIS files" story a year and a half ago, all primary documents from inside the caliphate, so she really knows her poo poo.

Basically, Donnie got a menu of options, picked a moderate one, then the embassy protest happened. Donnie bigbrain didn't want his own Benghazi, so he flipped his choice to the extreme Suleimani option.

And here's how she ended the chain:

https://twitter.com/rcallimachi/status/1213436210238111744?s=19

Scariest parts are the following:

10. Since the strike, Iran has convened its national security chiefs. Chatter intercepted by American intelligence indicates they’re considering a range of options. Cyberattacks, attacks on oil facilities and American personnel and diplomatic outposts have all been cited so far.

11. But among the “menu options” that I had not heard before were: (1) kidnapping and execution of American citizens. (This might explain why the State Department has ordered the evacuation of all US citizens in Iraq, not just government and embassy employees).

12. Another is attacks on American diplomatic and military outposts not just in Iraq, Lebanon and Syria, but as far afield as UAE and Bahrain. The official I spoke to was particularly concerned for American troops stationed in Iraq, some of whom are co-located with Shia militias

# ¿ Jan 4, 2020 17:20

Bored As Fuck: Jan 1, 2006; Fun Shoe

Hexyflexy posted:

He's an oddity in terms of TV Nazis, he's not white supremisict, he's very white nationalist, which is subtlety different. He's also dumb as gently caress which is endlessly entertaining for me as a black dude seeing him getting owned. The guy has absolutely no confidence in his position at all.

For posterity and for people who haven't seen this before:

https://youtu.be/2vMK-p6-M5E

# ¿ Jan 4, 2020 17:24

Bored As Fuck: Jan 1, 2006; Fun Shoe

Yeah that's a good one too.

# ¿ Jan 4, 2020 17:56

Bored As Fuck: Jan 1, 2006; Fun Shoe

colachute posted:

https://twitter.com/stratsentinel/status/1213503750398185472?s=21

I’m glad we eliminated the threat.

gently caress

# ¿ Jan 4, 2020 18:04

Bored As Fuck: Jan 1, 2006; Fun Shoe

Best Friends posted:

That was literally the job of the guy we killed

Lol yeah. Woops

# ¿ Jan 4, 2020 19:52

Bored As Fuck: Jan 1, 2006; Fun Shoe

I have it saved on my phone. Formatted it the best I could, as it was saved in plain text.

Iran - US relations 1989 to now

Polyakov posted:

So I sat down and this unintentionally swelled from a couple paragraphs to a midsize essay over the course of a few hours, but its done now and as a result you all get to see it.

Iran and US relations post war

HW Bush

Iran US relations are a bit of a mess just constantly. One of the big pushing factors to Iran-Contra was in part a desire to build relations with Iran in order to get them to make Hezbollah release the hostages they had been taking like candy in Lebanon. (Along with the desire to generate off the books cash to arm the Contras). This was the apex of the utter clown parade that was US attempts to talk with Iran during the war itself, with Iran and the US and Israel all being taken to the cleaners by a conman claiming to have contacts with the US government and moderate elements of the Iranian government for weapons. Just after the end of Iran-Iraq, HW got a call from Tehran from a man claiming to be Rafsanjani (The president of the time). Who said, they wanted to improve relations in return for releasing US hostages in Lebanon held by Hezbollah. It came to light later after he asked the CIA to check, that it was a political opponent of Rafsanjani who was trying to embarass him by having him implicated with the US. Trying to normalise relations had the added hurdle of not even being able to find the right person to talk to. The concept of just essentially some guy being able to ring up the president of the USA and pretend to be the president of Iran is utterly boggling.

Clinton

Both sides have at various times since then attempted to bridge the gap, but utter farce or internal politics got in the way on both sides.

Rafsanjani was actually interested in rapprochement and had the hostages released in 1992 along with the bodies of the two that Hezbollah had murdered, however the US didn’t reciprocate in letting Iran back into the international community. While this was going on there were more murders of Iranian exiles and an attempt to start an uprising in Iraq after Gulf 1, which the hawk elements of the US government took as an excuse to renege after the hostages were home. Rafsanjanis political opponents would take that as an excuse to harden their own stance and stepped up their support for Hamas and Hezbollah and was aggressively trying to derail the Arab-Israeli peace process at the time. (A time when it looked anything other than vanishingly unlikely). Iran for their part saw what happened to Iraq, saw the increased permanent US deployments in the gulf and the continued sanctions against them as proof of US duplicity. This was in danger of low key starting a war in the mid 90's. A US military exercise set the Iranians on edge as they saw it as a precursor to them invading the islands they controlled in the Persian gulf, and they started threatening the gulf with a build-up on their positions on the central islands of Abu Musa and Abu Tunb (and others), this was not an idle threat of their ability to really badly gently caress with world oil supplies which they had shown a willingness to do before.

Here we get Rafsanjani really trying to make peace with the US and just cool everyone off, they gave a huge oil contract to a US company to develop an offshore oil field, the government and the CIA pushed for this to happen as they really wanted to try and break the ice. But then the republicans won Congress and the Israeli lobby and those who just plain hated Bill Clinton and they put up even harsher economic sanctions. This is the point that Newt Gingrich really starts yelling about overthrowing Iran. He pushed through a very public 18 million dollars for the CIA's budget for Iranian operations. This would accomplish bugger all, you can’t run a spy ring in a coffee shop for 18 million. It completely tanked any chance of the CIA really developing any meaningful Iranian intelligence network (Which they had lost in its entirety 6 years prior). What the CIA actually did was stuff like smuggling books into Iran. The one thing this really achieved was in convincing Iran that America was essentially declaring full scale covert war against them, so Iran countered by actually declaring covert war. They attempted to start a riot in Bahrain and then blew up Khobar towers in Saudi Arabia, a building that housed a bunch of USAF personnel of whom they killed 20 and injured a further 400. The revolutionary guard navy harassed boats in the gulf leading to concerns about suicide boat attacks.

At this point however as the US is genuinely considering bombing Iran in retaliation a new president took over from Rafsanjani. President Khatami stopped the Rev. Guards from killing dissidents in other nations, had the leader of the intelligence services sacked for conducting these operations without notifying the supreme leader. He started making all sorts of noises about condemning terrorism, not killing Salman Rushdie and apologising for the US embassy siege as well as restraining the revolutionary guards from messing with people in the gulf. Clinton reciprocates by making noises about apologising for US actions in the past, not quite going as far as to do so but certainly moving in that direction and eased some restrictions on Iran. However Khatami couldn’t get the Iranian government to move forward to respond to US overtures. Clinton made a significant effort to meet Khatami when both were scheduled to speak at the UN before he left office, however Khatami who lacked the Supreme Leaders authorization to conduct talks slid out a side door to avoid him.

GW Bush

Then we get Dubya entering office. The state department and the joint chiefs of staff both pushed for continuing Clintons attempts to connect with Iran. However, they were obsessed with Iraq and just didn’t care all that much about Iran by comparison. The only person who cared and took an active interest in what to do with Iran was John Bolton, and I hardly need to articulate what his views were, but nobody cared enough to support his views to Dubya. Iran during this are hoping that they might be able to get on Dubyas good side by his links to oil industries in the US. They probably correctly divined that pressure from corporate interests could make Dubya take an interest in them.

Then we get 9/11.

Iran had been fighting the Taliban for quite some time and after 9/11 they seize the moment and invite the US in for talks, for the first time since 1986. Its been 15 years since the two countries have been able to even be in the same room together (The Germans and Italians are nominally there so it doesn’t look like it’s just the Iranians but their delegations tended to take very long lunches, like 5 hours long). It took some wrangling but the US agrees over the objections of Bolton, Wolfowitz and Luti (the assistant secretary of defence for near eastern affairs, who had served as Gingriches military aid before entering the administration). Iran gives the US significant intelligence about where the Taliban are in Afghanistan and are really pushing commonalities, the US are a bit leery but take their information and it develops into regular talks.

However at this point the Israelis intercept a shipment of weapons to Palestine from Iran, it seems unlikely this was an official government action but it still puts a bit of a spanner in the works. Then we get possibly the most ill-considered speech, the Axis of Evil speech. Which is notable because it didn’t come out of US government policy on Iran, because the US government had no policy on Iran at all, it was a lyrical flourish. This really hacks off Iran who withdraw from the talks, release a major Taliban commander and start undermining the government the US is trying to install in Afghanistan.

Then the US really decides to bollock everything up. Iran is interested in cooperating on Iraq, they want a say in selecting the new form of governance for that nation. Some effort is made on that front by both Iran and elements of the US government, but they get told to get stuffed and shut them out of Iraq entirely. So, Iran decided to be difficult, they were utterly convinced that the US was going to come and overthrow them, the lack of a clear US policy had reinforced this worry that had festered for 20 years, they took precisely the approach they had taken in Lebanon. They sought to create as much of a pig’s ear of a situation that the US would be too busy dealing with that to threaten them. And eventually they would come out on top. They would send thousands of fighters into Iraq to just get ready to create a mess due to the disintegration of the border, and it worked very well.

Both sides attempted via gestures to get the other to open up, the US sent significant aid to Iran after an earthquake hit a city, Iran sent a message via Switzerland which contained a plausible solution to normalising relations. Unfortunately, it was taken as a hoax and ignored because they had no easy way to validate its provenance, it turns out to have been from the highest level of Iranian government, so nothing came of either effort.

The US would move to supporting pro liberalising elements in Iran. Liberalising in this context meaning freedom of speech, human rights (as we in the west would understand them), labour rights, dismantling of the Revolutionary Guard’s chokehold over much of the economy, and freedom within the political process to choose who is on the ballot. Iran would react rather poorly to this, viewing it largely correctly as an attempt to overthrow them using soft power. That was not the only reason the US were attempting this but it was a major part of it.

At the end of all this muddled process in 2006 we get the Iran nuclear deal, or the start thereof. This was a major push from Condoleezza Rice, who took the view that you needed to engage with Iran to try and get them to cooperate. Because she was so close to Bush she circumvented all the Neo-Cons who gatekept the president, particularly Cheney and Rumsfeld at this point. She managed to get approval for using China and Russia to reach an agreement with Iran. It was offered to Iran that in return for halting their nuclear program they would get aid from Europe to modernise their oil and gas industry, they would get a light water reactor for nuclear power generation and a gradual reduction of sanctions. This was backed by Iran’s friends in Russia and the PRC as well. They prevaricated and were accused of stalling by the US which got their backs up and they eventually rejected it. They were probably going to reject it even without that particular wrinkle.

So that really brings us to the current state of sanctions on Iran, they were found in contravention of nuclear proliferation by the IAEA and there were significant international pushes for sanctions and inspection of cargo to stop Iran achieving nuclear weapons. This failure essentially kicks off Iran really escalating their activities, supplying Iraqi militias aggressively and paying them to attack US forces, we have reached the state of pretty much undeclared war that would rage for years.

Obama

Obama then turned up and he is explicit about using diplomacy to engage with Iran. He goes on Arab TV and talked this up for the middle-east at large. This was received very positively in much of Iran, but their own hardliners torpedoed every attempt of the moderate elements in Iran to actually do something about it. Not getting anywhere he would however try again, writing directly to Supreme Leader Khameini on two occasions and getting polite but non-committal replies. Unfortunately, then Ahmadinejad would get re-elected in Iran in 2009. He was one of only 4 candidates approved by the Religious Guardian Council to stand (of 476 applicants). There was pretty much certainly fraud in that election but its impossible to prove, he won by huge margins in every province bar two, even ones that he had lost in 2005. This sparks massive protests, after some indulgence from the Supreme Leader they eventually get told to stop but don’t, the Basijj militia go out attacking protesters and the police shoot a fair few, including the nephew of the second place candidate Mousavi. Iran blames the west for this, expels a number of British diplomats and all western journalists. There has been no reliable evidence that was the case. However, this set back relations further and the protests would continue but to no ultimate effect.

After about a year in 2010, the US would try again, they exposed a secret Iranian enrichment reactor and threatened further sanctions. They presented a deal for Iran to send its uranium to Russia, who would refine it into fuel grade uranium for their power reactors. This actually seemed to be getting somewhere, as Iran accepted the deal in principle and Ahmadinejad was in favour of it publically. Unfortunately, Irans internal politics derailed it, the Supreme leader didn’t particularly like Ahmadinejad or the West, his own political opponents in the government were determined to derail it to embarrass the president. Iran could not get a political consensus to agree to it themselves and so they rejected it and continued enriching uranium. As a result they got hit with the really big sanctions stick by the UN, we also get Stuxnet at this point which buggers about a third of Iran’s enrichment centrifuges. Israel, while probably not acting in concert with the US on this though its no way to be sure funds Sunni terrorists in Iran who conduct a series of bombings against the revolutionary guard, killing north of 50 of their officers, including a major general and dozens of civillians. There were also several assassinations of Iranian nuclear scientists almost certainly conducted by Mossad. To explain why that’s important when we are discussing the US, the view of the hardliners in Iran is that of a global Zionist conspiracy which ties Israeli and US actions together. This really boosted Iran’s paranoia, though whether it was paranoia when there were people out to get them is of course an open question.

Iran then steps up its activities in the gulf, again, and start bombing campaigns in Iraq in an attempt to mess with the US attempts at withdrawal, killing at least 15 American soldiers, the US bombs Iranian backed militias in Iraq and warns Iran very strongly through Russia, Iranian boats charged a US task group openly threatening to blow them up and dropping fake mines in the water ahead of them. The commander had not been in the gulf that long and didn’t realise that it was the Revolutionary guard up to their usual tricks. Fortunately, when he asked permission to open fire he was told not to and we managed to avoid a shooting war starting right then and there. They did something similar to a British ship who fired warning shots at the revolutionary guard who fortunately thought better of their activities and left.

This behaviour continues with another round of sanctions over the nuclear enrichment program resolution in the UN in 2012 which shut the Iranian central bank out of much of the world’s financial system, followed by the EU implementing the same sanctions. Iran responded by threatening to close the states of Hormuz. These sanctions are really started to hurt Iran at this stage. It was at this stage that Obama goes into his second term and manages to thrash out the deal that would eventually be signed.

Conclusions

This is essentially the very very short version of Iranian relations with the US since 1989. I hope it has illuminated why making a deal with Iran is quite so drat difficult. They are a completely fractured nation with an uneasy balance of power between moderates and radicals. There is only really one person who can actually impart order, and that is the Supreme Leader Khameini. The supreme religious lot in charge are all really loving old, they have been there for decades and have seen everything come to nought and still in my view cling to this idea of Iranian regional hegemon as a greater Shia state that Khomeini explicitly stated was the goal of the Islamic revolution back in 1979.

The second is that Iran is pretty much as to blame for this as the US is, precisely how much is open to personal interpretation, there is no denying the huge scale of the damage that Dubyas administration did to ever finding an actual solution. But Iran has nobody but itself to blame for the fact that nobody likes them given their constant and repeated actions. It’s a revolutionary state that never learned to stop fighting, and really its been fighting for nigh on 40 years now. The Axis of Evil speech was poorly judged and deeply bloody unhelpful in terms of international diplomacy, but it really wasn’t inaccurate given Iran’s creation and support of two of the nastier international terrorist groups of recent years.

Iran and America now just fundamentally cannot trust each other, Iranian overtures historically have largely been met by either disbelief or a demand for complete capitulation by the US. And US overtures have been met with either silence or another campaign of bombings by Iran. The fact that the Obama deal got signed at all is an absolute miracle given the legacy of distrust that it had to overcome. Hardliners on both sides want war, its very difficult for them not to get it at this stage.

I’m avoiding discussion of the recent abrogation by Trump because dear god I don’t really wanna poke that beehive of modern political clownery, also my knowledge on the subject is much more limited.

# ¿ Jan 5, 2020 02:14

Bored As Fuck: Jan 1, 2006; Fun Shoe

Yes because we can absolutely believe without proof that Suilemani was Actually Good now and was gonna try rapprochement with the Saudis instead of continuing the proxy wars and terrorist attacks.

That's just as stupid as believing the Trump administration's lies about there being an "imminent attack" that they somehow stopped by killing a single guy (who was immediately replaced by his protege who has the exact same mindset, world views, snd philosophy).

# ¿ Jan 5, 2020 16:50

Bored As Fuck: Jan 1, 2006; Fun Shoe

https://youtu.be/aIOHtJ37naE

He's got it wrong - 3 wars. The war against ISIS.

# ¿ Jan 5, 2020 18:01

Bored As Fuck: Jan 1, 2006; Fun Shoe

pantslesswithwolves posted:

This is why I’m glad to be heading back to the Sahel in about a month as there’s definitely no militant groups there that will take money from anyone to kill Americans or other Westerners.

GL HF

seriously though, stay safe dude

# ¿ Jan 6, 2020 00:40

Bored As Fuck: Jan 1, 2006; Fun Shoe

Justin Godscock posted:

This is seriously the Trump everyone was worried about in 2015 when it became clear he was a threat during the primaries and not a novelty candidate.

He is stoking war because he wants a boost in the polls (or distraction from the impeachment) without any understanding of the implications or empathy for people on both sides plus doesn't know what the gently caress he is doing. He is threatening world stability for the first and direct time in his Presidency which, looking back, we were lucky to not see for as long as we did.

Yuuuuuuuuuuuuuup.

Scoop: Trump Officials Tried to Stop Iraqi Expulsion Vote
https://www.axios.com/trump-iraq-parliament-us-troops-vote-iran-11771de3-f3a0-42d9-82fd-10d13dbf76cd.html

Motherfucking Hezbollah has a better PR team than Trump does. Jesus loving Christ.

Hezbollah leader says only U.S. military should be targeted in retaliatory attacks
https://www.axios.com/hezbollah-leader-citizens-retribution-soleimani-fac58a08-e38f-4ab2-8126-6a37fac1e525.html

quote:

Hassan Nasrallah, the leader of Lebanon's Iran-allied Hezbollah movement, said during a speech Sunday that only U.S. military assets, not U.S. civilians, should be targeted in retaliatory attacks for the killing of top Iranian commander Qasem Soleimani, according to the Washington Post.

Why it matters: President Trump tweeted Saturday that the U.S. military has 52 Iranian targets in the event that Iran or its proxies strike American assets, including cultural sites. The threat prompted outrage from Iranian officials, who accused Trump of advocating war crimes.

What he's saying: Nasrallah said targeting non-military Americans would benefit Trump, according to WashPost.

"There are many U.S. civilians in our region — engineers, businessmen, journalists. We will not touch them. Touching any civilian anywhere in the world will only serve Trump’s policy."

When calling for retribution, "we do not mean the American people," he said. "The true, just retribution for those who conducted this assassination is an institution, which is the U.S. military. We will launch a battle against those killers, those criminals."

Between the lines: During the speech, Nasrallah avoided mentioning Lebanon as a potential site to launch retaliation attacks and distanced the country from Iran, saying "we are not tools to be directed by Iran."

Lebanon has been shaken by protests against political elites, including Hezbollah leadership.

The big picture: By interfering in a conflict between Iran and the U.S., Hezbollah could squander the political benefits it will gain from forming a new Lebanese government with a Hezbollah nominee as prime minister.

# ¿ Jan 6, 2020 02:29

Bored As Fuck: Jan 1, 2006; Fun Shoe

egyptian rat race posted:

This. Please read the bills that have been put up for consideration.

I'm not trying to be a dick either, but I used to work retail so spare me the story and bring a receipt or you're not getting a refund

Please stop I'm getting flashbacks

# ¿ Jan 6, 2020 19:03

Bored As Fuck: Jan 1, 2006; Fun Shoe

Handsome Ralph posted:

https://twitter.com/deebashadnia/status/1214224526151749633

Shaun King is a loving idiot

# ¿ Jan 6, 2020 20:49

Bored As Fuck: Jan 1, 2006; Fun Shoe

They don't even call them magazines in most states. They call them "ammunition feeding devices," so that means you can't even have a belt fed gun and put more than 10 links together lmao

# ¿ Jan 7, 2020 00:31

Bored As Fuck: Jan 1, 2006; Fun Shoe

Trump Administration Blocks Iran’s Top Diplomat From Addressing the U.N. Security Council

Foreign Minister Mohammad Javad Zarif had sought to give a speech condemning the U.S. assassination of Qassem Suleimani.

https://foreignpolicy.com/2020/01/06/trump-administration-blocks-iran-foreign-minister-zarif-addressing-un-security-council/

quote:

he Trump administration is barring Iran’s top diplomat from entering the United States this week to address the United Nations Security Council about the U.S. assassination of Iran’s top military official in Baghdad, violating the terms of a 1947 headquarters agreement requiring Washington to permit foreign officials into the country to conduct U.N. business, according to three diplomatic sources.

Iranian Foreign Minister Mohammad Javad Zarif requested a visa a “few weeks ago” to enter the United States to attend a Jan. 9 Security Council meeting on the importance of upholding the U.N. Charter, according to a diplomatic source familiar with the matter.

The Thursday meeting was to provide Tehran’s top diplomat with his first opportunity to directly address the world community since U.S. President Donald Trump ordered the Jan. 3 drone strike that killed Maj. Gen. Qassem Suleimani, a top Iraqi militia leader, among others.

The Iranian government was awaiting word on the visa Monday when a Trump administration official phoned U.N. Secretary-General António Guterres to inform him that the United States would not allow Zarif into the country, according to the Washington-based diplomatic source.

The move comes as the United States and Iran engaged in tit-for-tat recriminations over the killing of Suleimani. Trump tweeted over the weekend that if Iran retaliates for Suleimani’s death, it will face U.S. attacks on 52 targets—the number of hostages held by Iran in 1979. “Let this serve as a WARNING that if Iran strikes any Americans, or American assets, we have … targeted 52 Iranian sites (representing the 52 American hostages taken by Iran many years ago), some at a very high level & important to Iran & the Iranian culture, and those targets, and Iran itself, WILL BE HIT VERY FAST AND VERY HARD,” he said. “The USA wants no more threats!”

Tehran, meanwhile, announced Sunday it was ending its commitment to limit enrichment of uranium as part of its 2015 nuclear deal, which Trump pulled out of in 2018 and then followed up by reimposing tough sanctions on Iran.

# ¿ Jan 7, 2020 00:35

Bored As Fuck: Jan 1, 2006; Fun Shoe

That attack on the base in Kenya left one American servicemember, and 2 contractors dead. 2 other servicemembers were injured.

Several planes and pieces of equipment were destroyed.

https://www.thedrive.com/the-war-zone/31721/3-americans-dead-6-aircraft-destroyed-or-damaged-including-a-rare-spy-plane-in-kenya-attack

# ¿ Jan 7, 2020 01:24

Bored As Fuck: Jan 1, 2006; Fun Shoe

AreWeDrunkYet posted:

Why are insurgents attacking military forces on a military base described as terrorists committing a terror attack?

e: Obviously the military press release is doing that, why is the news playing along?

I get what you're going for, but Al Shabaab is a designated terrorist group for good reason - they've committed terror attacks against Somali, Kenyan, Ethiopoan civilians, and have planned and attempted attacks against the U.S.

So they're both a terrorist group and an insurgent group.

# ¿ Jan 7, 2020 02:53

Bored As Fuck: Jan 1, 2006; Fun Shoe

aphid_licker posted:

https://twitter.com/VeraMBergen/status/1214595883813294083

And the President still has an unsecure phone and everything because Nothing Matters

# ¿ Jan 7, 2020 18:59

Bored As Fuck: Jan 1, 2006; Fun Shoe

CommieGIR posted:

He's also not twittering.

I seriously hope someone makes the right decision if he says gently caress it and tries to start nuking poo poo.

# ¿ Jan 8, 2020 02:39

Bored As Fuck: Jan 1, 2006; Fun Shoe

Vincent Van Goatse posted:

It's not so much being reasonable as having enough brain cells to know that directly killing American civilians right now would be absolutely a suicidal course of action for Iran.

Yeah, it's this. It's hilarious and extremely depressing that Iran is:

1. Playing Trump like a fiddle
2. Making him look weak and ineffective
3. Winning the PR game / looking reasonable compared to that loving idiot.

# ¿ Jan 8, 2020 03:37

Bored As Fuck: Jan 1, 2006; Fun Shoe

Also Beau released another vid

https://youtu.be/Q33-EerGS-M

# ¿ Jan 8, 2020 03:40

Bored As Fuck: Jan 1, 2006; Fun Shoe

sharknado slashfic posted:

Hannity being the de facto secretary of state hurts me physically

I turned on Fox News for 5 minutes and all Hannity was doing wasy giving reasons for why we should've killed the guy and strawmanning anyone who says it was a dumb idea.

# ¿ Jan 8, 2020 03:46

Bored As Fuck: Jan 1, 2006; Fun Shoe

I'm as glad as anyone that Trump is taking this opportunity to calm things down with Iran and not retaliate further (which could lead to all out war), but I cannot imagine the outrage and calls of cowardice a Democratic President would receive if they did the same loving thing.

Like, gently caress every single Republican and Fox News rear end in a top hat. I'm going to troll all of them now just calling Trump a little pussy rear end bitch for backing down against the terrorists of Iran. Cuz gently caress them.

# ¿ Jan 9, 2020 00:12

Bored As Fuck: Jan 1, 2006; Fun Shoe

not caring here posted:

Trump hasn't made a tweet in 24 hours and it concerns me.

Hopefully he's just comatose after whatever drug cocktail they had him on today wore off.

He seemed really out of breath.

# ¿ Jan 9, 2020 02:55

Bored As Fuck: Jan 1, 2006; Fun Shoe

gently caress Rand Paul. He's not even the semi tolerable kind of libertarian who is pro gun, pro gay, anti war on drugs, neutral abortion kind. At least those kind of libertarians are somewhat intellectually honest or internally consistent, even if they are idiotic "TAXATION IS THEFT HURPADERP."

# ¿ Jan 9, 2020 03:58

Bored As Fuck: Jan 1, 2006; Fun Shoe

Immanentized posted:

Apparently Mike Lee was raging specifically because the Administration would not confirm that they would seek congressional approval before launching further assassination attempts up to, and including the Supreme Leader of Iran. These people are utterly insane and need to be removed from any sort of power yesterday.

Lmao what the everliving gently caress

# ¿ Jan 9, 2020 17:22

Adbot: ADBOT LOVES YOU

# ¿ May 16, 2024 18:19

Bored As Fuck: Jan 1, 2006; Fun Shoe

Nick Soapdish posted:

https://twitter.com/ddale8/status/1215317632301355010

This really is the worst time line.

# ¿ Jan 9, 2020 18:14

The Something Awful Forums > Discussion > Internet VFW > January Current Events: 50 is my favorite caliber AND my BMI

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