Register a SA Forums Account here!
JOINING THE SA FORUMS WILL REMOVE THIS BIG AD, THE ANNOYING UNDERLINED ADS, AND STUPID INTERSTITIAL ADS!!!

You can: log in, read the tech support FAQ, or request your lost password. This dumb message (and those ads) will appear on every screen until you register! Get rid of this crap by registering your own SA Forums Account and joining roughly 150,000 Goons, for the one-time price of $9.95! We charge money because it costs us money per month for bills, and since we don't believe in showing ads to our users, we try to make the money back through forum registrations.
 
Ringo Roadagain
Mar 27, 2010

the people talking about the fainting thing is weird because I mean if you got a bad fever and are probably really dehydrated and insist on still be out and about, aren’t you pretty likely to faint? people seem to be thinking the people falling down in the streets are straight up dying there on the spot.

Adbot
ADBOT LOVES YOU

Ringo Roadagain
Mar 27, 2010

CPA Hell posted:

I think this in the cluster that was announced late last week, where they showed the timeline of the different people in parallel to show that it was definitely asymptomatic transmission.

apparently the woman who spread this and was showing ‘no symptoms’ was actually on fever reducing medication. so she was showing symptoms.

https://www.reddit.com/r/China_Flu/comments/excc8x/chinese_woman_not_asymptomatic_during_her_stay_in/

Ringo Roadagain
Mar 27, 2010


this seems dumb as gently caress uhhhh couldn't she have just gotten it from someone in Shanxi? Has she self quarantined for 42 days or something? There's no article. Just a tweet/

Ringo Roadagain
Mar 27, 2010

SKULL.GIF posted:

If she didn't self quarantine then presumably they should be able to track down her contacts and figure out who had it and transmitted it to her. Otherwise...

otherwise what? the only explanation is that she contracted it 42 days ago?

Ringo Roadagain
Mar 27, 2010

vyelkin posted:

ok cool lets make a quick assumption and do some math

of the cases described today, 1508 of 14,840 are lab test positive, the rest are clinical diagnosis which weren't counted in previous days' reports, that means it's just over 10% (10.16%) of cases were lab confirmed. Let's round to 10% for ease of calculations

let's make an assumption that today is a typical day in Wuhan and not some freaky outlier

taking that 10:1 ratio, that means...

the peak of Hubei's reporting under the old methodology was February 4th, when they reported 3,156 new cases that day. If we apply the 10:1 ratio, that means there were actually approximately 31,560 new cases that day

and taking the total number from yesterday, of 44,653 total confirmed cases in China, with the same ratio that would mean nearly half a million people had had the disease

even with all that, it's possible it has actually peaked in Wuhan, just from a much much much higher peak than we previously knew

I will be very curious to see if the ~1% death rate holds true with this massive increase in reported cases, or if the known death rate falls a lot as we confirm a lot of cases that were likely mild enough they didn't get prioritized for lab testing but are now being confirmed based on clinical diagnosis (apparently involving CT scans but not viral testing)

aren’t the other 13000+ not just from today but also previous days? so it’s more like everyday day didn’t report a quarter of cases because they were clinically diagnosed?

Ringo Roadagain
Mar 27, 2010

this thread is less reasonable than both reddit subs including the crazy conspiracy one. funny that someone posted glp because they actually are crazier than this thread

Ringo Roadagain
Mar 27, 2010

Charlz Guybon posted:

Nope that's from today. Just look at that BNO tweet I posted further up the page. Another 6500 cases from yesterday.

https://twitter.com/ghoeberx/status/1227743726879100929

sounds like it's not but I guess we will find out tomorrow/ just seems weird that confirmed with the test would drop slightly but the confirmed diagnostically would spike so much

Ringo Roadagain
Mar 27, 2010

Sheng-Ji Yang posted:

i feel like if the r0 was actually that high we would see a lot more spreading from the foreign cases. maybe in hubei province.

I don't know poo poo and even ive managed to glean that r0 changes. it even says right there

quote:

during early epidemic double every 2.4 days, and the R0 value is likely to be between 4.7 and 6.6

that it's during the early days. When the people who are sick don't know they have an unknown virus and the people around them don't know either and no one is taking any precaution like even simple poo poo like washing their hands.

Ringo Roadagain
Mar 27, 2010

Sab0921 posted:

For less fear monger-y and more academic discussions regarding the outbreak, a friend who is an ID specialist recommended these guys as follows on Twitter: Trevor Bedford, Michael Mina, Justin Lessler.

This is a good thread about working through models and hypotheses about the spread of the disease, trying link its rapid and severe spread in Hubei vs more limited transmission seen elsewhere.

https://twitter.com/JustinLessler/status/1227375168130928641?s=19

just gonna quote this post that it looks like no one paid any attention to and link the other two accounts.

https://twitter.com/michaelmina_lab

https://twitter.com/trvrb

Ringo Roadagain
Mar 27, 2010

Charlz Guybon posted:

Holy poo poo!
Maybe the R0 really is over 5 with that number by mid January!

How many medical staff does Wuhan normally have, because 1100 sounds like a considerable percentage.

https://twitter.com/JustinLessler/status/1227375225181888512

R0 will be higher in hospitals especially when they don't know what exactly they are dealing with

Ringo Roadagain
Mar 27, 2010

vyelkin posted:


lol

so on the one hand we have the WHO saying the big leap is just them working through a backlog based on now reporting clinical confirmation as well as lab tests

on the other hand, Chinese Infowars told me the entire country is an apocalyptic plague zone with billions dead from xi jinping's invention, viral pneumonia

who to believe?????
very cool I was right

Ringo Roadagain
Mar 27, 2010

SKULL.GIF posted:

I have no idea what this means or what it's implying any the epidemic.

https://twitter.com/BNODesk/status/1228112826214047744?s=20

maybe it means 1000 of those 15000 or so clinically diagnosed cases from yesterday were removed from the total cases? so I don’t think it actually means much.

Ringo Roadagain
Mar 27, 2010

Hamelekim posted:

Some good news! Only 40% to 70% of the world will be infected by this thing if it becomes a global pandemic.

https://twitter.com/livecrisisnews/status/1228402312055590915

https://twitter.com/mlipsitch/status/1228373884027592704

a good thread too

Ringo Roadagain fucked around with this message at 00:08 on Feb 15, 2020

Ringo Roadagain
Mar 27, 2010

its boggles my mind that people in this thread are ignoring an expert in this poo poo saying he believes this will most likely become a pandemic that could kill a million people in the US alone because somehow that's not bad enough. is it because he isn't treating it like the end of the world? Seriously, he explains that with an r0 between 2-3 this could infect 40%-70% of people.

https://twitter.com/mlipsitch/status/1228374615501574146

Instead you are willfully ignoring the part of that statement where that r0 =4.4-6.7 or whatever estimate is for the early days of infection. r0 changes and is different depending on where you are. the gently caress is wrong with all of you.

Ringo Roadagain
Mar 27, 2010

Notorious R.I.M. posted:

please panic in the same degree and manner as me

disagree. people should be panicking less than me. as a person who thought they had contracted the first ever case of second-hand rabies it makes me sad seeing people who are somehow even crazier and more anxious than.

oh I also have a friend who came back from Thailand last week and I told him I wouldn't hang out with him until after two weeks have passed.

Ringo Roadagain
Mar 27, 2010

is everyone ready for the FEMA death camps and mass graves?

Ringo Roadagain
Mar 27, 2010

the Cambodia thing is such an absolute blunder

Ringo Roadagain
Mar 27, 2010

Sheng-Ji Yang posted:

oh man i forgot the olympics are this summer lmao

hopefully this is seasonal

I’m personally very concerned for Eiichiro Oda, author of One Piece. He smokes a lot and only gets like 3 hours of sleep a night so this will definitely gently caress him up. He can’t die before he finishes One Piece...

Ringo Roadagain
Mar 27, 2010

FistEnergy posted:

If the R0 is anywhere near 3-5 then we should be seeing significant worldwide outbreak clusters in the next week or so right? If the communicable incubation period really is ~ 2 weeks.

incubation is like 5 days

Ringo Roadagain
Mar 27, 2010

every year 0.7% of the population dies

Ringo Roadagain
Mar 27, 2010

toilet paper thing is weird just shower right after you poo poo

Ringo Roadagain
Mar 27, 2010

Nothus posted:

Being late is his power move

following the lessons of Musashi Miyamoto

Ringo Roadagain
Mar 27, 2010

Weaponized Autism posted:

New Jersey released new numbers. 2 more deaths, and almost doubled the case count.

https://www.nj.com/coronavirus/2020...tive-tests.html

lol cool

Ringo Roadagain
Mar 27, 2010

gently caress You And Diebold posted:

https://twitter.com/AnnaPippus/status/1239971182142603266
1 in 10 chance of needing intensive care even for younger people that catch it. Lol once this thing really gets going in the US we are so hosed

Isn't it more like 1 in 50 here? Italy has what 19% needing ICU and 10% of those are between 19 and 50?

Ringo Roadagain
Mar 27, 2010

my county is gonna be the 2nd most infected county in the state in a few days this is so great

Ringo Roadagain
Mar 27, 2010

what does Italy even do at this point? they are shut down but number still keeps going up?

Ringo Roadagain
Mar 27, 2010

Armadillo Tank posted:

https://twitter.com/kommandostore/status/1241105735204945923

Estimates of chinese dead from public telecomm data: 7-14 million

Lmao. America is going to get hurt. When you have effectively no ventilators that 20% severe case thing becomes closer to a 20% fatality rate.

I dont think China was cremating 100,000 people a day for the past 2 months lol

Ringo Roadagain
Mar 27, 2010

guys are bad, just absolutely rancid farts a sign of the rona? cause I got some real gross gasses coming out of me today

Ringo Roadagain
Mar 27, 2010

lol just saw new york has 17 000 cases and the solution to people gathering in densely packed parks is to close streets to traffic so people can go out while also social distancing. hahaha.

social distancing is a meme now and is gonna get us 3 to 10 percent of us all killed.

Ringo Roadagain
Mar 27, 2010

2400 more cases in Jersey. Awesome. Gonna be a massacre here in a week.

Ringo Roadagain
Mar 27, 2010


35k test results and 13k positives. so thats what almost 40% positivity rate? High positivity rate is bad right lol

Ringo Roadagain
Mar 27, 2010

got any sevens posted:

they're testing people more likely to be sick, arent they?


america's mayor

yeah, you gotta have symptoms I think. at least that will be the case for the testing place that opening up by me tomorrow.

Ringo Roadagain
Mar 27, 2010


are those virus shame cubes like we saw in china or porta potties for very short people in the midground

Ringo Roadagain
Mar 27, 2010

Siljmonster posted:

probably boxes of tents but im gonna shove you in one anyways nerd

dont waste your time I live in jersey Im gonna be in one of those before easter

Ringo Roadagain
Mar 27, 2010


thankfully the anti anxiety medication my neurologist gave me a month ago has kicked in or I might be real worried about living in this state

Ringo Roadagain
Mar 27, 2010

D1E posted:

Why does everyone keep comparing this to 9/11 deaths?

I mean, even an imbecile like Trump can rationalize that one was a deliberate act of terrorism done TO us, and the other is a naturally occurring phenomenon that happened.

9/11 could have been stopped and the impact of this could have been greatly reduced.

real reason the comparison is dumb is this is gonna kill way more Americans than 911 easy. once you factor in all the dead Afghanis and Iraqis who knows though

Ringo Roadagain
Mar 27, 2010

Plinkey posted:

testing rates have gone down in the last few days

this I think. New jersey reported 3500 more cases so they are stil going up

Ringo Roadagain
Mar 27, 2010

facetoucher cat posted:

https://twitter.com/AdamSerwer/status/1244718897707843589

This person knows my secret. I want to shave my head so bad and this is the perfect opportunity. Now to just do it and hope that my husband doesn't totally flip poo poo. Hair is a prison, bald is beautiful

I did this a week ago. Knew'd Id gently caress up cutting my own hair so I shaved it. Knew it be month's before I hung out with friends so it would grow back. My heads a little oddly shaped but not that bad.

Adbot
ADBOT LOVES YOU

Ringo Roadagain
Mar 27, 2010

Stereotype posted:

I moved a crowbar into my room which I think is pretty effective and has a longer range than a hammer.

katana next to my bed

one on each side

  • 1
  • 2
  • 3
  • 4
  • 5