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1) Bernhard 2) Saunters
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Jan 31, 2020 05:14
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Sydin posted:So please correct me if I'm wrong, but here's what I'm understanding about the first three primaries right now: I am cautiously optimistic about Super Tuesday based on the latest polls, but so much is going to happen between now and then. Also, South Carolina is one of those things, and it's a relatively safe Biden state.
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Jan 31, 2020 05:52
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Unless a candidate (again, probably Bernie or Biden) manages to sweep all three of the above and build enough momentum to look like the clear front runner.
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Nairbo posted:Warren is a loving idiot and her advisors are even more dumb The crazy thing is that she's actually a pretty intelligent person. She's been getting poisonous advice for months now.
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Jan 31, 2020 08:20
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Bad pollster... BUT.... good poll!? https://twitter.com/Politics_Polls/status/1223124938812358657 (last month they had Biden 30 Sanders 20 Warren 16 Bloomberg 8)
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Jan 31, 2020 08:23
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Corsair Pool Boy posted:That poll is from the 16th. Don't they usually get released within 24 hours? It's pretty common for polls to be a few days old at release. For whatever reason a couple have been released really late recently.
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Jan 31, 2020 08:57
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More good movement. This has always been a rough pollster for Bernie. https://twitter.com/PpollingNumbers/status/1223279008890138625
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Jan 31, 2020 17:31
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Groovelord Neato posted:Yeah the Democrat brand is dogshit it's why it's weird anyone thinks "but he's not a Democrat!" is a negative. TBF it's still a potential negative during the Democratic Primary in states where independents are excluded.
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Jan 31, 2020 18:24
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Lol they're shoving out Yang and pulling in Bloomberg.
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Jan 31, 2020 20:43
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Concerned Citizen posted:They change them every debate All of the previous debates had an individual donor number requirement. Lowering or removing any threshold at this point is a bizarre move. The only real explanation is that they are opening the door for Bloomberg.
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Jan 31, 2020 20:52
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Eminai posted:TBH it should just be a delegate requirement, but then they wouldn't be able to give Bloomberg free publicity. Anyone with delegates should get in for sure, or anyone who looks likely to win delegates in NV or SC.
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Jan 31, 2020 21:19
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Concerned Citizen posted:I get everyone hates Bloomberg, but it is actually weird that he's been excluded so far. A candidate polling as well as he is would not be excluded in any year other than this one. The donor requirement was always arbitrary and existed solely to try and make the debates watchable by removing some chaff. It doesn't make any sense post-NH when the stage will be much smaller anyway. He excluded himself by choosing not to compete in the race for whatever reason. He always has the option of not attending any debate he qualifies for, so I'm not sure how much I buy into the "ACTUALLY, this is a negative for Bloomberg" narrative. He could choose to show up at a debate and just suicide bomb the progressive candidates, for example, with no regard for his own viability. He shouldn't have that opportunity unless he's really competing.
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Jan 31, 2020 21:22
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Anyway, I think the new debate rules are insipid from the perspective of fundamental fairness, BUT I also think they may be a tactical win for Sanders. Yang is effectively forced off stage and Bloomberg presents an ideal punching bag, plus Pete and maybe even Klobuchar can continue splitting the moderate vote if they notch even a single delegate.
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Jan 31, 2020 21:33
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Bloomberg attending the DNC's "Nevada Debate" without campaigning there or even bothering to get on the Nevada ballot is some hellworld poo poo. Thankfully, Bernie has hellfire immunity and a yuge damage multiplier against billionaires.
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Jan 31, 2020 21:42
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Concerned Citizen posted:I don't think "really competing" is measured by whether you take donations or compete in the first four. His campaign staff is a massive, extremely well-paid army. He's spending millions on ads and he's a solid 4th in the polls - and rising. That seems like competing by any standard. I think he's like a 1% chance of winning the nomination but he's going to rack up delegates which is more than you can say about Amy Klobuchar or Andrew Yang. It's the Nevada Debate and he's not on the ballot there. If you polled Democrats nationwide about Michelle Obama she would also hit a 10% cutoff, but that doesn't mean she's "really competing." This whole thing is insane. In any case, the DNC debate cutoff doesn't consider campaign employees or other campaign expenditures. He would be in with or without those. Also, I genuinely think Klobuchar has a better shot at winning the ultimate nomination, albeit still sub-1%. Bloomberg is widely disliked by Democrats! Vox Nihili fucked around with this message at 21:59 on Jan 31, 2020 |
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Jan 31, 2020 21:55
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Jan 31, 2020 23:06
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kidkissinger posted:totally anecdotal, but all my marxist leninist friends are actually talking about voting in the primary for bernie. it's wild since they have been super harsh on electoralism in general, especially after 2016. Please push them to vote. Bernie is the US left's best shot in decades at, well, anything, really.
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Jan 31, 2020 23:13
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CubanMissile posted:Did the FEC deadline already pass? Not yet!
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Jan 31, 2020 23:25
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oxsnard posted:Wonder how much did Bernie raised this month. I would assume 10-15 million My guess is $15m-$20m range.
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Jan 31, 2020 23:40
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Project Ratfuck may already be underway. DES MOINES, Iowa — A small group of Democratic National Committee members has privately begun gauging support for a plan to potentially weaken Bernie Sanders’ presidential campaign and head off a brokered convention. In conversations on the sidelines of a DNC executive committee meeting and in telephone calls and texts in recent days, about a half-dozen members have discussed the possibility of a policy reversal to ensure that so-called superdelegates can vote on the first ballot at the party’s national convention. Such a move would increase the influence of DNC members, members of Congress and other top party officials, who now must wait until the second ballot to have their say if the convention is contested. https://t.co/7Ppot08hlM?amp=1
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Jan 31, 2020 23:41
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Warren's biggest self-own was almost certainly the "I support M4A but I don't support the payroll taxes required to fund it and no I can't tell you what we're going to do instead" thing that played out over a couple debates and news cycles in the fall. She got her pie eaten by PETE of all people. It's all been a slow drift downhill since then, and in recent weeks she's resorted to increasingly self-destructive tactics (the "Bernie is sexist" leak, the pivot to more idpol and less "big structural change" in voter outreach in Iowa, etc.)
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Feb 1, 2020 00:22
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Perez trying to get out in front of the ratfuck story. https://twitter.com/TomPerez/status/1223386600555646979
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Feb 1, 2020 00:36
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Mat Cauthon posted:Warren's cash on hand seems low for this early in the primary. Every non-billionaire campaign's COH looks a bit low. Bernie is better off but not exactly swimming in dough. I'm hoping his January numbers are impressive; we goons are certainly doing our part.
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Feb 1, 2020 03:01
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Anyone know what time the Selzer poll hits tonight?
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Feb 1, 2020 22:21
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Kraftwerk posted:Not gonna lie I’m getting really nervous about Iowa. At first I’m thinking that Bernie has it in the bag but now I’m wondering if all the olds are gonna panic and go Biden or Warren at the last minute because of this stupid electability argument. Make some calls if you're worried. No use trying to read the tea leaves.
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Feb 1, 2020 22:57
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John Wick of Dogs posted:These loving people say Bernie sorters are the ones in a cult This guy also trolled a Biden event. It's not clear if someone is paying him or if this is just his idea of a good time.
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Feb 2, 2020 00:51
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reignonyourparade posted:18-34: Bernie 40% Biden 17% Check the other crosstabs, too. Bernie's West Coast coalition is insanely diverse.
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Feb 2, 2020 01:46
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What. This is my whole evening you fucks!!! E: oh, nothingburger
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Feb 2, 2020 02:50
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FUCKkkkkkkfdas;;dgasfhaw i have like 20 tabs open for predictit!!!!!
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Feb 2, 2020 02:58
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BIGLY RIGGED!
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Feb 2, 2020 03:01
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im betting the Pete folks threatened a lawsuit
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Feb 2, 2020 03:35
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Gyges posted:Nobody can possibly cowardly enough to avoid the dumbest, most baseless lawsuit this side of one of Donny's lawyers. this is CNN we're talking about
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Feb 2, 2020 03:42
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From Patrick Murray at Monmouth: https://twitter.com/PollsterPatrick/status/1223791180376346625 Holy mackerel! This is weird. And I say this from experience. I was in our field house on last night of our Iowa. Happened to be standing behind one interviewer who did not read all the names on screen. By time I got to the control room, the supervisor already flagged that interviewer and pulled her off for retraining. It was the beginning of the shift, so we only had to delete that one interview. But we’ve also had data come back at the end of the night where we can see unusual trends in a particular interviewer. There is plenty of opportunity to replace those interviews if that is the problem. If it is a programming issue that should have been picked up fairly quickly. As I said, it is weird to bag an entire poll rather than just extend field for a day.
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Feb 2, 2020 03:43
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Concerned Citizen posted:that's absolute bullshit apparently it's sort of true but relates to only a single location where litigation was threatened by neighboring businesses or something
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Feb 2, 2020 06:32
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A number of sources are saying this DMR leak is correct now: Bernie 22 Warren 18 Pete 16 Biden 13 Klobuchar 13
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Feb 2, 2020 18:20
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rscott posted:The only person I've seen on Twitter posting that is Cenovich so I am skeptical Arjav (the poll leaker guy) said those numbers were correct, though apparently he only saw the top four results Nate has also effectively confirmed that he's seen the leak and that it is consistent with prior results (but he hasn't confirmed these specific numbers): https://twitter.com/NateSilver538/status/1223986454797438976
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Feb 2, 2020 18:29
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zimbomonkey posted:As I understand it caucuses don't start until 6 p.m. anyway and everything is so fluid it's not super useful getting real-time feedback. That said I'm going to be following it like a hawk because I'll be stuck in bumfuck New Jersey with nothing better to do The caucuses don't actually "start" until 7 pm Central time (BUT anyone who intends to caucus should be there at roughly 6 pm). Results should roll in a few hours after.
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Feb 2, 2020 18:54
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Civiqs Iowa results over time, with movement: 
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Feb 2, 2020 20:05
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Grouchio posted:Why am I still antsy about all this? I have a good feeling about Bernie but I'm wracked with the weight of the world upon tomorrow night's caucus, as if it'd make or break his campaign. Because we are on the brink of an incredibly momentous contest with so much on the line, and we have a real shot but the forces arrayed against us are both shadowy and formidable.
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Feb 2, 2020 21:24
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Spiffster posted:That loser wanting to hop in would cost him millions of dollars at Bank of America so it’s not gonna happen. He's also blown roughly 69,000 deadlines... which he should probably know about without having to call anyone.
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Feb 2, 2020 22:20
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| # ¿ May 22, 2024 07:33 |
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KidDynamite posted:gently caress yeah Bernie! When do results start rolling in? Roughly 9pm Eastern
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Feb 3, 2020 18:28
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