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Aerox
Jan 8, 2012
I want the final 3 to be Kim/Sandra/Denise and I will be furious if any of them are out before the merge.

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Aerox
Jan 8, 2012
It's hard to narrow it down between my favs but I think this is what I'm going with:

Pony: Kim
I know she probably won't last long because everyone seems extremely freaked the gently caress out by her (and they probably should be) but she's so dang good at Survivor I'm excited to see what she does against competitors with a higher IQ than Leif.

Poison: Amber
She's boring and I'm fully expecting that every single one of her confessionals is going to be about marrying Rob and their relationship and I just do.not.care.

Aerox
Jan 8, 2012
I made my wife get out of the jacuzzi on vacation so I could watch this and I have no regrets.

Thoughts:

- INSANELY good premiere. Tension pretty much the entire two hours.
- Absolutely inspiring to watch Sandra roll up to a group of people who know how dangerous she is, talk 30 seconds of poo poo, and smirk in the corner when she instantly has the target fall off her back. Queen stays Queen!
- Shocked and thrilled to have the two of the least deserving people on this season gone back to back. Perfect boots for quality of TV.
- Thank god for Natalie gifting her idol for maximum tv entertainment.
- Denise, Kim, and Sandra are my three favorites and this was an absolute rollercoaster but I’m happy all of them seem to be playing hard and well.
- If this keeps up it will probably be the best season of all time??

Aerox
Jan 8, 2012
Do we even know for sure Rob actually said that? My first assumption was she made it up entirely so she could have a reason to go after Amber.

Aerox
Jan 8, 2012

Lone Goat posted:

Weird that Danni (assumedly) had no pre-game alliance and gave her token to someone that voted for her.

This is probably wishful thinking, but I would guess that Denise is playing the same strong social game she played last time, which is be the nice therapist that everyone likes while building relationships, and that that just hasn't been interesting enough to show given the chaos of the first two episodes.

Aerox
Jan 8, 2012

Binary Logic posted:

I think its 30%. That's the number from a million dollar *ahem* winner from McMillions.

You have to pay federal tax and state tax, if required, of where the show films (usually California which requires it) and while the numbers vary a bit by state and your tax bracket overall if you receive cash as a prize it usually ends up being in the neighborhood of 45%-50% of total winnings going to taxes.

Aerox
Jan 8, 2012

ApplesandOranges posted:

And I think that's a valid stance to take, because if he was never for contention you don't want to get people's hopes up. I don't think any of them have gotten any word from production even after the cast list was finalized though, not even a 'hey I know you would have wanted to be on, but this is why'. Because I think Vecepia has been wanting to come back for decades and they've just stonewalled her.

Also it just sounds like they have a priority list for casting because ideally you reach out to as many people as feasible, then start making cuts. Rather this seems more like 'let's get Boston Rob and Paravati and Sandra, etc. and then if we have to start scraping the bottom of the barrel maybe we'll call some of the others.'

I don't remember where I read this, but supposedly for this go around they cast a really wide net early on just to see who would say yes and stumbled into finding out they had enough winners for the season. Pretty much called up every even remotely popular person just to see if they were willing to play again. A lot of popular non-winners were apparently told they weren't chosen but that "they'd understand when they saw the season's theme."

Aerox
Jan 8, 2012

Lt Jon Kavanaugh posted:

The only winner I'm bummed about not having back is Chris from Vanuatu, I've always thought he was one of the best winners. But I get that he probably didn't want to play again and even if he did you'd have to cut one of the more recent winners and CBS probably wouldn't want to do that.

Jeff hates him because on day one he made an alliance of uggos and voted off all the beefcake.

Aerox
Jan 8, 2012

Lt Jon Kavanaugh posted:

I have no idea if thats true or not but sounds completely believable given Jeffs opinions.

I'm kind of half kidding, but not really. It's apparently known that Jeff doesn't like Chris, but afaik no one has ever really gone into details on why.

Part of it is very likely that Jeff ended up dating Julie Berry from that season, and Chris was the swing vote who lied to them and then took out Julie at Final Five, so I imagine Julie was not a fan of him at all even though she ultimately voted for him to win.

I genuinely think though that Probst was super pissed about that whole season because pre-merge a bunch of out of shape guys who called themselves the Fat Five seized control of the game, and then at the merge it shifted into an almost entirely female-dominated game who took out everyone but Chris. Adding onto that, most of the younger half of the cast was eliminated pre-jury, and most of the remaining contestants for the back half of the game were pretty old by Survivor standards, and I doubt Jeffrey enjoyed any of that.

Aerox
Jan 8, 2012

IcePhoenix posted:

this Russell was cool did he ever get another shot?

Yeah, he played a second time on Phillipines

Aerox
Jan 8, 2012
The fact that everyone knows that Amber is on Edge and no one in the game has a clear understanding of what exactly is going on on Edge or how things work probably mean that people are (smartly, imo, even though we the viewers know he doesn't have anything at this point) assuming that Amber's been sending Rob poo poo and that he's got idols or advantages in his pocket. Like someone else mentioned I saw the Ethan vote as a move to try to flush an idol, it just turns out none of the targets had one.

Aerox
Jan 8, 2012
I can't remember the wording of it -- can he play it any time at Tribal and just leave, or does he have to play it before they even go to Tribal and he misses the whole thing?

If it's the former, the dream comedy scenario is that Sarah steals his vote and then he walks out, nullifying her stolen vote.

Aerox
Jan 8, 2012

BGrifter posted:

Makes sense, but I’m not sure how you do it without blowing up your game in the process. I can’t imagine a merge alliance being cool with losing a vote and leaving everyone stuck behind to bear the risk.

I’m having a hard time imagining how it gets played as anything but a desperation move from the bottom to survive one more week. Maybe a situation where a tribe swap puts him massively down in the numbers and he just needs to get through a week to the merge?

It’s a clever design with a ton of potential to backfire spectacularly.

I guess I could also see a rare scenario in which you're down to you and one other alliance member with one idol between you and instead of going with a 50/50 guess of playing right or losing in a vote split anyway you guarantee an idol block and force the majority to turn on each other or take one of them out.

Aerox
Jan 8, 2012
It’s my understanding (someone correct me if I’m wrong) that game show rules require them to have the major twists written out in advance, although they can write themselves in some wiggle room, but they’re generally bound to what they wrote.

Twists, merges, tribe reshuffles, final 2/3, jury size, etc are all documented somewhere in some form pregame (this event happens in this form at this time/when this condition is reached) so that if there’s a lawsuit they can protect themselves. (“Jeff/Production kept reshuffling the tribes until I was away from all my allies and then I lost!”) To that end, stuff that says random is random, and there have been multiple instances of random swaps and stuff creating deeply unfair and/or uninteresting situations, but they’re stuck with it.

Aerox
Jan 8, 2012

STAC Goat posted:

I did not know that. Ok, that's different. I am not a smart man.

I think it got lost in the chaos of the first episode and wasn’t really important enough to include but the very first “twist” was that a lot of the contestants, if you watch some of their pre-game video, had been duped into thinking the tribes were men vs. women. They segregated them all by gender a couple days and sent them out on the boats together — during the pregame stuff they seemed to know who was playing from their own gender then not the other.

There was a lot of day zero personal strategizing about potential alliances and early targets that went out the window when the new balanced tribes were revealed.

Aerox
Jan 8, 2012
The Heroes vs. Villains tribe setup makes more sense if you look at the tribes as "Team of Survivor Players Jeff Thinks are Hot" vs. "Team of Survivor Players Jeff Thinks Make Good TV But Are Not Hot" and then for balance reasons production made him swap Parvati and Rob with Cirie and Rupert.

Aerox
Jan 8, 2012

Aerox
Jan 8, 2012
QUEEN. STAYS. QUEEN. :colbert:

Aerox
Jan 8, 2012

sleep with the vicious posted:

thought on tonights vote based on next weeks preview, only in spoiler because i know some people dont like previews:

Rob wouldn't turn on them.

He would turn on them in a loving heartbeat and he's finally on a tribe where everyone knows it.

Aerox
Jan 8, 2012

CODChimera posted:

Who was that crazy guy back in one of the first seasons that did that? I wanna sat Amazon but can't remember

Thank god Rob got voted out, it would've been beyond bullshit if that worked especially with Adam and Ben.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=lTBdPP9kpss

Aerox
Jan 8, 2012

Fast Luck posted:

That Sandra blindside was amazing. It only flitted across my mind briefly as a possibility and I never expected it, and I like the editing call to not tip the viewer off that it was an option Denise was considering.

That tribal theoretically could have been a huge disaster, by the way. Imagine the following unfolding: Jeremy peaces out. Denise plays her idol. Sandra goes oh poo poo and plays hers, and so does Kim. Tony tries to crawl into a spy bunker but Probst drags him out and sends him off to Extinction.

Does anyone know what the contingency plan in the rules are if, at vote time, everyone is either gone or has made themselves immune? Do they just cancel tribal?

Aerox
Jan 8, 2012

Silly Burrito posted:

Not exactly the situation you described, but.....just watch if you haven't.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=DzX7OXMhyUs

Right, but what if she also had an idol?

Aerox
Jan 8, 2012
I think a fun twist for upcoming seasons would be an open, known rule that only one hidden immunity idol can be played per tribal, it's whoever yells it first, and the idol can be played at any point once Tribal Council officially starts (where it would function as a regular immunity necklace and prevent people from writing your name down) up until the normal time after the votes are cast (where it can block cast votes).

Do you play early? Do you play late? Do you know who else actually has one? Do you risk waiting for the votes for a huge move or blow up the vote early and maybe get an alliance member in trouble? Who knows!

Aerox
Jan 8, 2012

bagrada posted:

A camera operator goes home and then the next tribal council is done with Jeff's voiceover over drawn art of the players like in sealed court trials.

I was picturing a Junji Ito type story where Jeff has been going to tally zero votes and calling for a revote in a cycle for the last 200 years and everyone is slowly turning into their torch.

Aerox
Jan 8, 2012
One player is going to win two million dollars.

One player (so far) is going to get a roughly two and half all expenses paid resort vacation.

The rest of the players are going to starve on an island for nothing.

If you don’t think you have a shot at being the winner, Option 2 seems like a real smart move.

I remember seeing this years ago and have no memory of who said it or when it was said, but at some point someone affiliated with the show said if you don’t win, the second best place to be in is the first person voted out.

Aerox fucked around with this message at 05:07 on Mar 26, 2020

Aerox
Jan 8, 2012
https://twitter.com/meeshfitz/status/1250654870232760320

Aerox
Jan 8, 2012
I would agree with you except for the fact that this week people got real fired up about how she had to go because (paraphrasing) “she was definitely going to win” (I think Sophie said that?) which leads me to believe a lot of poo poo is happening out there we’re not seeing because based on what we’ve been shown that doesn’t make sense.

Aerox
Jan 8, 2012
I'm generally not a fan of it, but I think I'd be a lot more interested in it as a concept if everyone was stuck on their own mini EoE island and couldn't interact with anyone else other than monitored contact during the jury trips to/from tribal council. It'd be a ton of work since everyone would have to have access to the same advantages/hidden tokens/puzzles

If they really want to get back to the idea of surviving, see what a month of isolation where you're fully responsible for your own food would probably result in a lot more flag raises.

Aerox
Jan 8, 2012

Khanstant posted:

Survivor: Women vs. Boys the first season with half the cast under the age of 11 to finally settle who is more stronglier, adults or children.

I don’t think they need a lawsuit from the MILF Island crew

Aerox
Jan 8, 2012

Lampsacus posted:

I feel it would be a cool moment if they kept EoE an absolute secret from the main players still in the game only to reveal these hungry exiles at the merge as some rabid revenge tribe. And drop like three of them back in the game through a challenge then board up EoE.

That’s basically what happened on Pearl Islands and it was pretty underwhelming to be honest

Aerox
Jan 8, 2012
Here ya go:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=al_8hqFO1UE

Aerox
Jan 8, 2012

JOHN CENA posted:

I think that's the retooled Friday the 13th reality show that was pitched to CW and ITV about 5 years back?

I dunno how accurate this is going to end up being, but this article raises some points towards the end that make this whole thing sound very weird.

Essentially, that there's no game other than doing the challenges for the money pot, (No quizzes, no guessing who the killer is) and that the "Killer"/Producers just pick who goes home every week out of the entire pool of contestants except the person who won immunity and there's no logic or explanation to how it's chosen.

https://www.realityblurred.com/realitytv/2020/07/killer-camp-cw-review/

quote:

So how are the bottom two decided? Who decides which contestant to kill off and eliminate from the competition? And why the heck doesn’t the show tell us this?

I asked The CW, and got the rather interesting and reasonable response from the show’s producers:

“The bottom two are determined like this—one of the two is the person the killer has chosen to remove from camp that evening. The other person was chosen by the producers to be the most dramatic person that could be chosen. In [the case of one of the first two] was considered by some in camp to be acting guiltily so putting [that person] in the bottom 2 felt like it might encourage debate. The person eliminated is always decided by the ‘killer’.”

In other words, the contestant chosen to be the murderer—who’s benefitting financially from the cast’s incompetence at the challenges—picks one person, and the producers decide the other member of the bottom two based on who will make the best television.

Bummer if true, since the premise sounds like good fun.

Aerox
Jan 8, 2012

Nihonniboku posted:

Hmm? I don't agree that she ever could have won (too many people on the jury hated her), but she played Tony, not the other way around. She got him to blow up multiple alliances, for her or because of her, and made it to the final 3. If I remember correctly, maybe I'm wrong, but didn't she not tell anyone that she was a lawyer? Isn't that why Tony was so focused on her living on a llama farm?

I really don't fault Kass for engineering Cagayan's final 3 because if everyone had functioning brains she should have been a lock for final two no matter who won immunity.

I also think a Woo vs. Kass vote would have been a lot tighter than people think.

Aerox fucked around with this message at 18:13 on Mar 23, 2021

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Aerox
Jan 8, 2012
Assuming what Jeff said is true, I'm pretty amped.

The big standout to me was it sounds like they've realized the theme/gimmick poo poo was killing the game. I think a lot of problems in modern Survivor are related to them trying to hamfist poo poo into a stupid theme or season title when it's totally unnecessary.

I also love that it sounds like (and I'm hoping I don't misread this) that idols and advantages aren't just going to be tossed in bushes and people are just going to stumble over them but that there's going to be some real decision-making behind getting one and/or using it.

Those two things alone are enough to get my interest way up, and I also am pretty into the cast at least based on cursory glances.

We'll see, but I'm pretty optimistic!

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