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ApplesandOranges
Jun 22, 2012

Thankee kindly.
Hmm, wonder how AUS Survivor chat is gonna go on here. I think it might be the first time we've had two big seasons on at once.

Anyway. Pony! I really like Ethan. There are a bunch of other contestants that I really like on there (Sophie, Denise, Natalie) but Ethan's so sweet.

Poison. Honestly? Sarah. Her pre-game press has a lot of arrogance and a lot of people seem to be stacked against her. I'm not knocking her winning game, but I think she's definitely gotten her win in her head and not in a fun cocky way like Sandra, and her brand of humour is definitely a bit more niche.

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ApplesandOranges
Jun 22, 2012

Thankee kindly.

STAC Goat posted:

Count me amongst those very skeptical about Kim. I don't hold it against her that her cast were idiots. You play with the cards you're dealt. It WAS a dominant win. But they were really loving stupid. Worse, they were passive. Even the competent ones were players content to keep the waters calm, get the easy vote, and not worry that someone else might be a threat to your win. She's not only playing with smart people, but theres going to be very few passive people. Maybe she'll be good, maybe she won't but it feels like watching a dominant amateur go pro.

There might be more passive people than you'd think. Michele, Ethan, Amber, Danni, Sophie... most of them were good at just staying under the radar, letting the bigwigs shoot themselves in the foot, and maybe rein people in only if necessary.

ApplesandOranges
Jun 22, 2012

Thankee kindly.
Kim, as far as I can tell, is very good at being both a physical threat as well as being able to make everyone feel like she's their best friend. It's similar to Lauren's analogy about Chris in the EoE finale: everyone thinks she's their best option. We've seen it before with J.T.

It's a different kind of dominant win compared to Rob, who both controlled his tribe in a different way, and had his winning game mixed in with newbies.

I think that if Kim can find another Sabrina or Chelsea - loyal players with just enough blemishes on their playstyle that she can outshine them in a FTC - then she'd be fine.

ApplesandOranges
Jun 22, 2012

Thankee kindly.

IcePhoenix posted:

I just read the bio post (it's very good) and am curious: why does everyone think Tony has like a negative chance to make it very far? Does everyone just hate him or something? I don't follow stuff that happens outside the game really.

Tony's great, but he also has a reputation for sneakiness and chaos. And that's difficult to deal with. He turned on LJ, a guy he played an idol for. But he's also surprisingly apt at the social aspect, considering Trish's loyalty and the fact that he literally won his million by convincing Woo to take him.

He has two advantages, thankfully. The first is that his Game Changers performance blunted his threat level, and I think he's definitely going to try to calm down and ease off. The second is that Sarah is on his tribe, and she's got a bigger target on her back (and more cockiness since she's a bit fresher off her win). So if he's smart, he can shield himself for a bit, but he'll need to adapt some new kind of gameplay to make it far.

ApplesandOranges
Jun 22, 2012

Thankee kindly.

Spatula City posted:

I haven't watched the last two seasons, but here's hoping this season isn't a complete production mess. I also kinda hope some of the big threats are taken out early. though I don't think people should really be gunning for Sandra until late pre-merge/post-merge, when she's such a perfect decoy vote.

The 'perfect decoy vote' is how 'goats' keep slipping into the endgame.

The only person who really managed that strategy correctly was Jeremy, and even it almost fell apart at the end.

ApplesandOranges
Jun 22, 2012

Thankee kindly.
I still find it kinda silly that US Survivor has been staying in Fiji for years to save costs but their challenge budget looks way worse than Australian Survivor.

US has better editing, but that is about the only thing I think they do better these days.

ApplesandOranges
Jun 22, 2012

Thankee kindly.
AUS has more enjoyable editing (camp life, etc.) but the airtime can also be horribly skewed - someone got eliminated last season with no confessionals at all, and it's not like she was a very early boot, I think she was sixth out or something.

There is also very noticeable splicing for confessionals, and very obvious 'yes, this person/tribe is gonna win the challenge' music.

So yeah, AUS has the better editing as far as enjoying the season goes, but the technique is a bit choppier.

ApplesandOranges
Jun 22, 2012

Thankee kindly.

Jose Valasquez posted:

I haven't watched AUS but I find it hard to believe they are worse about this than the US version. It is really bad.

If there are two people left in an endurance challenge and one is wobbly and the other is rock solid then 9 times out of 10 the rock solid person will fall out of nowhere

It's actually incredibly obvious, but it doesn't make the challenges less exciting. Their challenge department blows US out of the water.

AUS also really, really loves dramatic music.

ApplesandOranges
Jun 22, 2012

Thankee kindly.
It's really weird after having watched AUS for two weeks how few character moments there were again. Michele was barely there, and Kim and Tyson only really appeared when they were in danger. I do think they tried to give everyone equal airtime though other than the standard camera hogs (Rob/Sandra/Parvati).

Also I can't believe Denise finally skipped a tribal council.

ApplesandOranges
Jun 22, 2012

Thankee kindly.
Tyson was scrambling just as much as Kim, though. It’s just that he was tipped off earlier so had more time to throw Kim and Amber under the bus.

ApplesandOranges
Jun 22, 2012

Thankee kindly.

Spatula City posted:

I have no idea how Fabio would have fared here, and I am kinda disappointed we missed that golden opportunity. imo production wants to pretend Nicaragua didn't happen. but also they wanted largely competent players and not people that bumbled their way to the end and won against assholes just by being likable. so I wasn't really surprised he wasn't cast.

I know they'll never, ever do this, but I would love to see a total shitshow season of Survivor featuring some of the floppiest, messiest, and weirdest players.
alternately, a returnee season consisting entirely of pre-merge boots. somehow trick Francesca into coming back, wahahahaha.

Brenda did come back so it's not like they shafted the season completely. But Nicaragua doesn't have a lot of 'we need them back' people. Maybe Marty, maybe Fabio... and I'm not sure who else. Holly and Sash aren't quite compelling enough.

ApplesandOranges
Jun 22, 2012

Thankee kindly.
They still need a camera crew for the Edge and editors to sort through all that extra (and mostly useless) footage.

Also exit interviews are good for Survivor. It gets the show traffic and doesn't actually cost the show anything, they just need to remind the contestants not to say anything that would reveal future stuff on the show and the press probably arranges most of it.

ApplesandOranges
Jun 22, 2012

Thankee kindly.
He doesn’t ‘owe’ the fans a re-appearance. If he’s done, he’s done.

Earl declined because he has a newborn baby. Cochran declined because he was happy with his game. Both are equally valid reasons not to come back.

If you want to be disappointed in anybody, it’s production for not even asking Tina, Vecepia and Todd.

ApplesandOranges
Jun 22, 2012

Thankee kindly.
If he didn’t pass the health check that’s one thing. It’s a different thing if they didn’t even reach out in an expression of interest.

They’re allowed not to want Todd for any number of reasons. But I don’t think it’s wholly a health concern when they put Shane on the Second Chances ballot despite him clearly going through nicotine withdrawal in Panama.

ApplesandOranges
Jun 22, 2012

Thankee kindly.
And I think that's a valid stance to take, because if he was never for contention you don't want to get people's hopes up. I don't think any of them have gotten any word from production even after the cast list was finalized though, not even a 'hey I know you would have wanted to be on, but this is why'. Because I think Vecepia has been wanting to come back for decades and they've just stonewalled her.

Also it just sounds like they have a priority list for casting because ideally you reach out to as many people as feasible, then start making cuts. Rather this seems more like 'let's get Boston Rob and Paravati and Sandra, etc. and then if we have to start scraping the bottom of the barrel maybe we'll call some of the others.'

ApplesandOranges
Jun 22, 2012

Thankee kindly.
Also, the fan favourite was won by someone who was... not the nicest person and when she found out she was going to be voted out, threw a petty tantrum, put out the fire and went 'I started it so I'm going to put it out'.

ApplesandOranges
Jun 22, 2012

Thankee kindly.
Because Russell (kinda) ran his season and Jeff loves two things: dominant players, and people who claw their way up from the bottom (hence why we have F4 firemaking and EoE).

Which makes his dislike of Chris Daugherty a little funnier.

ApplesandOranges
Jun 22, 2012

Thankee kindly.
Apparently word from Michelle/Jeremy's watch party is that Michelle wanted to work with Parvati, and Jeremy wanted to work with Rob. So yeah, RIP Ethan.

Also there was apparently a thing where every morning Ethan would offer the leftover burnt rice after breakfast to Rob, and that made Jeremy think that Ethan would never betray Rob, so he had to go. Which is kinda funny.

ApplesandOranges
Jun 22, 2012

Thankee kindly.
I imagine Rob and Parvati haven't exactly been idle. They know that the Old School bloc is in the minority, so I wouldn't be surprised if they've been making bonds with the swing votes.

I mean they should still cut those two loose sooner rather than later because these guys are there for a reason; one has a giant statue of himself and the other is namedropped as someone that every female thinks they are every season.

ApplesandOranges
Jun 22, 2012

Thankee kindly.
Honestly, I think Adam's biggest blunder is not talking to Denise about it. We've seen Adam talk Denise out of potential mistakes. We saw him discussing with Denise about putting the target on Parvati. What we didn't see is him telling Denise that he's thinking of talking to Ethan and Rob about it, because she could have talked him down.

That might also be a signal that Adam is definitely playing a bit of a selfish game too. Denise has to recognize that at the end of the day, he could cut her.

ApplesandOranges
Jun 22, 2012

Thankee kindly.
I'm just getting charmed by Michele all over again. I was pro Cydney in Koah Rong but Michele was in second place and even if I'm not attracted to women she's like, not just island hot.

The NTOS already looks hilarious and I'm so ready for Michele and Wendell to deal.

ApplesandOranges
Jun 22, 2012

Thankee kindly.
The tribe did bad selections for the jumping, but if Adam didn't keep trying they'd all be at tribal no matter how good Rob/Michele were at the puzzle. So yeah, I'll give him the credit for saving the tribe from really bad decision making. Even if he didn't outright win the challenge for them, he opened the door.

ApplesandOranges
Jun 22, 2012

Thankee kindly.
Nick's apparently said on social media that it wasn't thrown, he was just a dumb.

That said, they have cut out 'throw this challenge' storylines out before; Bradley's boot in Ghost Island was because Dom and Chelsea threw it, but they never mention it in the episode.

ApplesandOranges
Jun 22, 2012

Thankee kindly.
I mean, the 'best' option for them would be to vote with Rob, tell the girls they need to use their idol (if they have one) on Sarah, but then secretly switch their votes to Sophie. The idol gets flushed, then it's a 2-2 tie and Ben/Adam can take their pick of whether to vote out Rob or Sophie.

ApplesandOranges
Jun 22, 2012

Thankee kindly.

Spergatory posted:

I'm pretty sure Rob literally said to Adam's face that he was going to spread lies about him to bury him and that it didn't matter what he actually did.

Rob said 'let's bury Adam' to Parvati.

ApplesandOranges
Jun 22, 2012

Thankee kindly.
Adam's original tribe is also in the minority, so he's kinda boned either way, since Dakal look to be very united. I don't think there'll be a Pagonging, but it'll be tough for any of the Sele crew to survive past the early merge.

A Kim flip is the best hope for Sele, but even then with the double tribal it's almost assured that Dakal will maintain their majority going into merge.

ApplesandOranges
Jun 22, 2012

Thankee kindly.
I'd like to see Wendell vs. Rob: House Wars or something.

ApplesandOranges
Jun 22, 2012

Thankee kindly.
That was ice cold and I love it. Oh Sandra. You can't not respect that move.

Also wow, Yul is the only winner left from before the halfway mark, isn't he.

ApplesandOranges
Jun 22, 2012

Thankee kindly.
The other (small) thing that stood out to me was that Sandra was trying to sell the idol for two tokens. Which meant that she knew Denise was holding onto more than one.

ApplesandOranges
Jun 22, 2012

Thankee kindly.

Raxivace posted:

I dunno, JT's call in HvV was wrong but at least you can sort of see why he thought an all women's alliance was forming and coming after Russell. I'm not sure what huge upside Sandra was hoping to get out of giving an Idol to Denise.

Like are two fire tokens really worth that much?

I mean you can literally buy an idol with one token. Selling an expiring idol for two could, in theory get her a profit.

ApplesandOranges
Jun 22, 2012

Thankee kindly.

Raxivace posted:

I thought it was like 3 tokens for an idol. If its really only one than yeah that's a lot more defensible.

3 tokens for an idol is only on the Edge. So far, any advantages that Edge players try to sell to remaining cast members have all been for a single token.

ApplesandOranges
Jun 22, 2012

Thankee kindly.


Someone also edited Denise's Wikipedia article, and it's great.

ApplesandOranges
Jun 22, 2012

Thankee kindly.
Yeah I don't mean off the menu, but Sandra knows that EoE people will try and sell advantages, which are all powerful. They've all so far only costed one token each.

ApplesandOranges
Jun 22, 2012

Thankee kindly.

Twin Cinema posted:

Does anyone know what happened between Wendell and Michelle off the island? It seems like he cheated on her, but I am not sure.

We don't have details and it's fine to respect their privacy. Best guess is that Michelle took the relationship more seriously than Wendell did.

ApplesandOranges
Jun 22, 2012

Thankee kindly.
Jeremy's also tight with Michele, so Denise may have gotten herself a solid Final 3 deal. That's if Sele can overcome that 5-7 deficit. Which is pretty much dependent on Dakal winning next tribal, since otherwise it looks like a likely Adam/Ben/Michele boot.

Jeremy going home would also be really bad for Denise - even if she could guarantee herself safety to merge with her second idol, she would have no tokens (if she followed up on her deal) and no allies other than a decimated Sele who are more inclined to turn on each other with such a big numbers disadvantage. Right now, the more original Seles that Denise can preserve, the better of a chance that they can try to take control of the game at merge.

ApplesandOranges
Jun 22, 2012

Thankee kindly.
Many of the 'new schoolers' are rootable, get the 'old schoolers legends only' mentality out of your head. Heck, Tyson only won in the same era of seasons as Sophie/Denise/Natalie.

Honestly, only Wendell is in the 'anti-root' category and I presume that's the edit messing with us to make him more dislikable.

ApplesandOranges
Jun 22, 2012

Thankee kindly.
The problem is that if you want to work with Sandra, you have to fulfill her conditions: 1. give her another fire token later and 2. Don't vote out Sandra or Kim.

So let's say you vote out Tony. Great! Except now you have a vested interest in keeping Jeremy around, and Sandra has a vested interest in keeping Kim around. So you're at a stalemate again, except that Sandra has a leg up in fire tokens, and we're not even including Kim's idol or Jeremy's ability to nope out of tribal altogether.

If you want to work against Sandra, and you blow her up back at camp... then that's a possibly jury burn vote, which is pretty bad on a season with the Edge. At least this way the cut was swift and Sandra respected it.

ApplesandOranges
Jun 22, 2012

Thankee kindly.
I don't think it'd be that hard to turn Kim and Tony against each other. Do they really want to go to fire/rocks for somebody who they weren't even exactly working together with before the swap?

Tony's already sketchy, and Kim should always have a target on her back. As long as Jeremy stays loyal (and I think odds are he does), they can be as firm together as Sarah and Sophie.

ApplesandOranges
Jun 22, 2012

Thankee kindly.

e.martin posted:

I am all about being entertained. So far I have not been overly impressed with this season. Has mostly centered around the players getting rid of the biggest threats in the game. Makes sense from a game play point of view but doenst add to the excitement level. Would have loved to see Sandra, Rob, Parv, etc all going at it at the merger.

Which is why it might be time to stop with the returning players thing. If you are "too good" or too big a threat you dont stand a chance.

I mean, if those guys keep running the show then it becomes 'wait why haven't the other people gotten rid of them, they're idiots'.

And we've seen people with 'big threat status' go far before. Cirie made it all the way to F6 in Game Changers, a season famed for knocking out big threats too early. You have to be able to adapt, and we've already seen Tony start to do that after flaming out massively last time he came back.

Everybody who's left is a legitimate threat because they've all won before. If you're not wising up to your opponents' strengths (like Michele's social game or Denise being an eternal cockroach) that's when you get blindsided when all the big flashy people get removed and then they sneak past.

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ApplesandOranges
Jun 22, 2012

Thankee kindly.
Oof.

I'm going to have to be convinced on why keeping Wendell was a smart decision. He's mouthy, he's impatient, he's defensive. Like yeah Yul is possibly a bit more inflexible... but from his season you also know that he's intensely loyal and he's great at working from the bottom. He's a perfect ally to have until late in the game.

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