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SchrodingersCat
Aug 23, 2011
This is how the world ends.

This is how the world ends.

Not with a bang but a cough.

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SchrodingersCat
Aug 23, 2011

Asproigerosis posted:

Fun little tidbit, my sister is an NP manager for a group of SNF/rehab homes with a bunch of olds. Several of her NPs quit this week out of fear of the roni. Come on, there aren't even any confirmed cases in the homes yet! Do not mind that no testing is being done.

My SNF lost about half of our second floor to "unexplained" dyspnea/temps with multiple CXR showing basilar infiltrates over the weekend. 13 hospital DCs in the last 3 days, three expirations. Rapid spread through the floor.

My department was told today that we are required to start treating patients on that floor for PT/OT/ST. We haven't been given gowns, and they are giving each therapist one n95 mask that they have been told must last a week or they are not getting another one. The building administration has been arguing with doctors who want to send pts to hospital; admin is fighting tooth and nail to keep butts in beds.

Most of the department is talking about quitting and I am starting a two-month leave of absence tomorrow.

SchrodingersCat
Aug 23, 2011

DesertIslandHermit posted:

The survivorship bias after all of this is going to be obnoxious as gently caress

After this is over and it becomes ethically feasible I think there is going to be a reckoning between clinicians and the medical establishment, and it's been a long time coming.

Accountants shouldn't be telling doctors what to do.

SchrodingersCat
Aug 23, 2011

twoday posted:

during the Spanish Flu of 1918, it is theorized that cytokine storm also played a huge part. That flu killed a ton of young healthy people (usually above the age of 25 I believe), and they thought that the way it worked was that young people have healthier immune systems and stronger immune responses, so that's why the cytokine storm was so lethal. But oddly, the 18 and 20 year olds were much less affected. One theory to explain this is that the Russian flu, a milder pandemic that occurred in the 1890's, was the first major viral infection experienced by people in that age group, and that it reprogrammed their immune response in such a way that it created a loophole in their immune responses which the Spanish Flu was able to take advantage of. As COVID has shown us, cytokine storm does not necessarily favor the young, so this seems to make sense. This is also a good argument for vaccinations at birth

then again, if there were to be a pandemic of ultratuberculosis that takes advantage of a loophole created by BCG vaccine we would also be turbofucked so who knows

There is some similar speculation with SARS-CoV2 that exposure to OC43, another coronavirus that circulates in the pediatric population, confers some partial immunity. There was some research back in the day that also indicated cross-reactivity between OC43 antibodies and SARS. This would partially explain why the new virus spares the young.

SchrodingersCat
Aug 23, 2011

twoday posted:

neat

would parents be more likely to have that protection too then?

Yes. I am sure there will be follow-up studies and I am interested to see the results.

Going to see lots of really good and possibly revolutionary research coming out of Europe and Asia re: this virus.

SchrodingersCat
Aug 23, 2011

twoday posted:

I feel terrible for [those countries] but this is amazing [data]

Europe and Asia will do the research because the US doesn't do any research that can't be used to sell something.

Looking for silver linings here, research into the Spanish Influenza led, either directly or indirectly, to most of the important medical advances of the 20th century.

SchrodingersCat
Aug 23, 2011
So I start my two month leave of absence today. Now starts the two week countdown to see if I caught it before I fled from my building.

The skilled nursing facility I work in has now welched on its promise to take in no pts with respiratory symptoms and is now actively admitting pts to our quarantined plague floor and demanding that therapy provide services to them. Therapists are given one mask a week and no other equipment and must spend 45-60 minutes per session in direct contact with pts, within a space of 1-2 feet.

I hope none of my co-workers die. I feel bad for going on leave but if I bring it home to my wife she will likely die.

A few of my co-workers were crying today as I left because, financially, they have no choice but to work.

SchrodingersCat
Aug 23, 2011

About two years ago, on a hunch, I had my wife sell out a good chunk of our Roth IRA and pay off a lot of debt. I also had her move the traditional IRA to safer investments. I had her check it a few days ago and it was around the same as it was 2 years ago (when the stock market was ~27k), even after the crash. I figured this was the reason I had that feeling, and I would much rather keep my wife alive now than have an extra whatever in the bank when I'm 65. I am going to have to work until I die anyways since the growth on that IRA will never match inflation.

The new stimulus bill allowed penalty-free withdrawal from IRAs, so I will be suckling on that teat for a while.

SchrodingersCat has issued a correction as of 00:54 on Apr 2, 2020

SchrodingersCat
Aug 23, 2011

Thoguh posted:

I think almost 10% of the cases in Iowa are in one single nursing home. That's gotta be a terrifying place right now.

Nursing homes are a loving hellscape on the best of days.

Walking into one today felt like end of days level poo poo. Watching an entire floor get depopulated in the span of three days is unreal. Then you read MadJackal's posts and realize those people are moving from your still-somewhat-safe world to his world and they likely won't be returning.

SchrodingersCat
Aug 23, 2011

Asproigerosis posted:

Two components of this are almost certainly:

1) longstanding distrust of the rich white male medical apparatus among the black community (which is entirely understandable considering you got so much disinformation right now from assholes all over and the long history of racism ie slavery, Tuskegee experiment).

2) Systemic socioeconomic racism in health care towards blacks. If you dig into numbers their access to treatment and medical coverage is almost certainly way lower than other racial breakdowns. I mean, come on, everyone knows black people, especially women, overexagerate their pain and don't really need pain meds :downs:

There is also the fact that two of the largest population centers in the state (Flint, Detroit) are overwhelmingly African American and several other large cities (Saginaw, Benton Harbor) are also majority African American. Detroit has the largest concentration of cases and deaths in the state.

I mean, the facts you posted are also true, but that doesn't tell the whole story.

I'd like to see statistics from other locales to see breakdown by race and SES.

SchrodingersCat
Aug 23, 2011

Gio posted:

and MI has some of the lowest rates of testing, too. we’re hosed.

Michigan was always going to get turbofucked by this. Old, poor, uneducated state that only ever voted blue due to the auto unions. High rates of drug use, obesity, and poor health. Massive cultural split between urban and suburban areas, which especially blows because most of the hospitals in Metro Detroit are in the suburbs. Detroit proper has like two or three real hospitals to handle a population of about one million.

SchrodingersCat
Aug 23, 2011

anime was right posted:

very cool and good. not at all going to result in lots of violence, looting, and riots.

We are pretty much heading into a full-on depression at this point. You can't have that much income and power inequality because the whole thing becomes top-heavy and collapses when a real crisis happens. Same as 1929. Now all of the people who have no jobs and no money saved won't buy anything and demand will collapse and our supply-side economy can go gently caress itself.

SchrodingersCat
Aug 23, 2011

facetoucher cat posted:

If God went down it might cause a superbug because of lady germs



American Christianity is a plague.

SchrodingersCat
Aug 23, 2011

Son of Man posted:

Even if you join police forces for the right reasons, the culture will either corrupt you or destroy you. There are people like your friend who pursue that career because they want to help. But the prison industrial complex is designed from the top down to make money and subjugate the populace. The system thus maintains a culture of cruelty and paranoia.

Someone mentioned earlier that they were going through the cheaha wilderness recently. I have a friend who is quarantined there. I'm worried about him because he be has a lung condition.

He was a cop for 20 years. Chief of police in a small town, detective in a city, etc. He was forced out of four departments, each time because he stood up to corruption (political harassment, planting drugs, beating up disabled people - despicable poo poo). He has a lung condition because he pulled a drowning boy out of the water and gave him CPR. The boy coughed up putrid water into my friend's lung.

The cops who pull drowning children out of water and give them mouth to mouth get fired for insubordination. The cops who beat up retarded kids circle up and get promoted.

Any time you bring together a group of people and give them power, weapons, and opportunity, they will become corrupted, especially in capitalist societies where everything is based around money and The Self.
The ones who resist will be ostracized and isolated. It's human nature. The people with bad natures (racists and bullies) will fall into the corruption easier and that's why the US police force as a whole is the way it is.

There are good cops, but the entire system is geared to break them down or wash them out.

SchrodingersCat
Aug 23, 2011
Michigan supposedly at 540 deaths, 14000 cases.

Don't trust those numbers. I know at least 5 pts in my skilled nursing facility have died of COVID with no diagnosis and at least 40 people are actively infected, also without diagnosis. And that was as of Wednesday.

The state is barely testing.

SchrodingersCat
Aug 23, 2011

Charlz Guybon posted:

It's already 1345 which is more than the 1321 yesterday. Probably going to hit 1500 today.

American case and fatality reporting is meaningless. There will never be an accounting of how hard this hits the US. Health systems have no interest in accurate reporting since their insistence on understaffing and understocking has left them unprepared, and local, state, and the federal government have no interest in accurate reporting since it will cost them re-election.

I really hope someone takes the time down the road to analyze the stats and figure out how many more pneumonia/ARDS deaths there are this year. It's going to be a looooooot.

SchrodingersCat has issued a correction as of 02:09 on Apr 5, 2020

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SchrodingersCat
Aug 23, 2011

Salt Fish posted:

The official number of deaths has been doubling every 3 days for 30 days. I don't think that's meaningless.

It's like someone telling you it's a little wet outside, and when you look out the window you find that you are in the middle of a lake.

The trend might be showing but the figures are nowhere near reality.

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