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zoux posted:If, after all this, Democrats end up with a slim trifecta, I don’t think even we will find a way to be miserable about it. True, but you won't see me believing that 49-49 means anything but R 53-47 until those elections are over
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# ? Nov 18, 2020 05:23 |
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# ? May 4, 2024 13:21 |
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zoux posted:If, after all this, Democrats end up with a slim trifecta, I don’t think even we will find a way to be miserable about it. You haven’t been paying much attention. The whining about how bad Biden is started 8 months ago.
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# ? Nov 18, 2020 05:24 |
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Final 538 poll aggregate in GA was B+1.2 which is pretty good, less than a percent off and in the right direction Senate polls had a dead heat too https://mobile.twitter.com/Redistrict/status/1328918812041809920 If he's right that's a 9 or 10 seat majority zoux fucked around with this message at 05:33 on Nov 18, 2020 |
# ? Nov 18, 2020 05:29 |
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https://twitter.com/hollyotterbein/status/1328911571091935233
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# ? Nov 18, 2020 05:32 |
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zoux posted:If, after all this, Democrats end up with a slim trifecta, I don’t think even we will find a way to be miserable about it. Whole forum will be on Joe Manchin-watch.
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# ? Nov 18, 2020 05:33 |
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zoux posted:If he's right that's a 9 or 10 seat majority Which is better than it sounds because Nancy Pelosi, for everything that can be said against her, is very good at keeping the Dem majority unified in terms of voting.
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# ? Nov 18, 2020 05:39 |
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zoux posted:Final 538 poll aggregate in GA was B+1.2 which is pretty good, less than a percent off and in the right direction Worth pointing out that IA-02 is crazy close. The dem is behind by 48 votes (.01%) out of 393672 cast. Wouldn’t be unheard of for the recount to swing it the other way. Edit: fixed % SousaphoneColossus fucked around with this message at 06:28 on Nov 18, 2020 |
# ? Nov 18, 2020 06:02 |
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zoux posted:If, after all this, Democrats end up with a slim trifecta, I don’t think even we will find a way to be miserable about it. I honestly wonder if Manchin doesn't flip in that scenario.
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# ? Nov 18, 2020 06:47 |
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Pobrecito posted:I honestly wonder if Manchin doesn't flip in that scenario. I doubt it. He'd lose the seniority and power he has with the Dems, and then get taken out by a more crazy Republican in the next primary.
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# ? Nov 18, 2020 06:50 |
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Pobrecito posted:I honestly wonder if Manchin doesn't flip in that scenario. As a dem he would be extremely powerful, anything that gets passed in the next two years would have to go past him. As a rep he would be one of 51 screeching old fools blocking anything from getting done. What do you think?
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# ? Nov 18, 2020 07:01 |
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Handsome Ralph posted:Just a heads up, this thread is going to be closed within the next few days with a rebooted thread to follow shortly thereafter. If you haven't reached out to either myself or GreyjoyBastard or Majorian with any suggestions you have for the reboot, please feel free to do so. Thanks! Someone add that post about organizations (not candidates) in Georgia to donate to the OP. Or really just link it now so I can find it.
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# ? Nov 18, 2020 07:02 |
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Yeah no matter how bad Manchin is I don't see what incentive he has to formally turn coat. It's not like the GOP's likely to welcome him with open arms and not immediately primary the poo poo out of him - maybe if he went full psycho Trumpist, maybe, but if he were inclined to go that far I don't know why he wouldn't have done so already.
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# ? Nov 18, 2020 07:09 |
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Lol now let's unskew them polls
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# ? Nov 18, 2020 07:12 |
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Spiritus Nox posted:What will happen to us in this thread if these numbers turnout to be basically accurate and/or underestimate the dems They had Trump +2 on nov 1st in GA Trump +1 in FL on nov 2nd So their polls were some of the best
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# ? Nov 18, 2020 07:30 |
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Spiritus Nox posted:Yeah no matter how bad Manchin is I don't see what incentive he has to formally turn coat. It's not like the GOP's likely to welcome him with open arms and not immediately primary the poo poo out of him - maybe if he went full psycho Trumpist, maybe, but if he were inclined to go that far I don't know why he wouldn't have done so already. He did vote for impeachment, voted against Trump tax cuts and against repealing Obamacare, voted to preserve funding for Planned Parenthood and is surprisingly moderate about gun control so he's persona non grata among Republicans. WV Republicans are 100% hardcore Trump cultists who are viciously opposed to Democrats in government. Manchin's opponent in the 2018 senate race even called on him to resign from his Senate leadership position because something something Obama Clinton Schumer gun rights which led to this fun quote "Joe Manchin posted:I don’t give a poo poo, you understand?” Manchin told a Charleston Gazette-Mail reporter when asked about Morrisey’s call. “I just don’t give a poo poo. Don’t care if I get elected, don’t care if I get defeated, how about that?
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# ? Nov 18, 2020 07:49 |
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zoux posted:If, after all this, Democrats end up with a slim trifecta, I don’t think even we will find a way to be miserable about it. somewhere in the distance you hear the sound of joe manchin sharpening his teeth e:fb e2: joe manchin had the same fetish for hatred as joe lieberman. He exists to consume the despair of both parties. He would never switch parties even if he could, he would just fade into the background as a republican. Dr. Fishopolis fucked around with this message at 08:10 on Nov 18, 2020 |
# ? Nov 18, 2020 08:06 |
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At the end of the day while clearly a conservative Manchin is still a Democrat and thus has no reason to switch over.
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# ? Nov 18, 2020 08:09 |
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Dr. Fishopolis posted:e2: joe manchin had the same fetish for hatred as joe lieberman. He exists to consume the despair of both parties. He would never switch parties even if he could, he would just fade into the background as a republican. I mean it's different when the conservative Democrat is from West Virginia instead of Connecticut. If the only thing Manchin did was vote for a Democratic majority leader in a 50-50 senate it would still be a pretty big improvement over whatever chud the state would have elected in his place. Joe Lieberman had no such excuse.
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# ? Nov 18, 2020 08:56 |
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joe manchin uses the word "poo poo" more often than i do, tbh
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# ? Nov 18, 2020 09:24 |
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Vincent Van Goatse posted:Which is better than it sounds because Nancy Pelosi, for everything that can be said against her, is very good at keeping the Dem majority unified in terms of voting. Is that really true anymore? Compared to Republican solidarity?
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# ? Nov 18, 2020 10:15 |
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Vincent Van Goatse posted:Which is better than it sounds because Nancy Pelosi, for everything that can be said against her, is very good at keeping the Dem majority unified in terms of voting. lol, no she is not "very good" at that and if she was its a poo poo piece of work anyway
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# ? Nov 18, 2020 10:18 |
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Jaxyon posted:Is that really true anymore? Compared to Republican solidarity? Yes. Nancy Pelosi is still very good at getting the party to vote in lockstep. https://www.rollcall.com/2020/03/04/2019-vote-studies-pelosi-sets-record-holding-caucus-in-line/ For some reason (I could guess why) it's a D&D-ism that Nancy Pelosi is horribly ineffective.
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# ? Nov 18, 2020 11:28 |
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Booyah- posted:lol, no It’s literally one of the most important jobs a speaker has. It hasn’t mattered as much recently because the GOP controls the senate.
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# ? Nov 18, 2020 13:34 |
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Booyah- posted:lol, no what? she's in clear control of her caucus and has been since 2006. say what you will about nancy but her whip is legit
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# ? Nov 18, 2020 13:41 |
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i say swears online posted:what? she's in clear control of her caucus and has been since 2006. say what you will about nancy but her whip is legit You could probably argue that one of the reasons they stay in line is that she doesn't push them too hard to do anything risky.
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# ? Nov 18, 2020 14:25 |
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Murgos posted:You could probably argue that one of the reasons they stay in line is that she doesn't push them too hard to do anything risky. one would think that would invite dissent from the left flank which essentially has not happened in fourteen years
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# ? Nov 18, 2020 14:26 |
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I'm not convinced that this is due to Nancy's particular skill rather than the Dem caucus simply having fewer crazies. I'm also concerned that leadership is uniformly over 80 and the youngest committee chairman is 59. https://twitter.com/daveweigel/status/1328705537454780416 While he was always gunning for the Senate this dynamic also probably played a role in Kennedy swinging at Markey now instead of waiting for him or Warren to retire (and it's definitely why Pelosi encouraged him). Elotana fucked around with this message at 14:41 on Nov 18, 2020 |
# ? Nov 18, 2020 14:33 |
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i say swears online posted:one would think that would invite dissent from the left flank which essentially has not happened in fourteen years
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# ? Nov 18, 2020 14:35 |
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Elotana posted:I'm not convinced that this is due to Nancy's particular skill rather than the Dem caucus simply having fewer crazies. I'm also concerned that leadership is uniformly over 80 and the youngest committee chairman is 59. The Dem causus has historically also been more ideologically diverse than the GOP in the past 20 years, but as of the last time I checked Dems are slowly becoming more homogeneous as issues become more nationalized. Not having a good whip count is how you end up like McConnell where John McCain drops a no vote on repealing Obamacare out of nowhere, which is great and hilarious for us, but not something I'd want to see on the other side of the aisle. The aging leadership and no apparent mentoring/transition program is inexcusable though.
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# ? Nov 18, 2020 14:45 |
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James Garfield posted:I mean it's different when the conservative Democrat is from West Virginia instead of Connecticut. If the only thing Manchin did was vote for a Democratic majority leader in a 50-50 senate it would still be a pretty big improvement over whatever chud the state would have elected in his place. Joe Lieberman had no such excuse. Yeah, Joe Lieberman's seat is now occupied by Chris Murphy, who has been pretty cool.
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# ? Nov 18, 2020 14:45 |
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whydirt posted:The Dem causus has historically also been more ideologically diverse than the GOP in the past 20 years, but as of the last time I checked Dems are slowly becoming more homogeneous as issues become more nationalized. Not having a good whip count is how you end up like McConnell where John McCain drops a no vote on repealing Obamacare out of nowhere, which is great and hilarious for us, but not something I'd want to see on the other side of the aisle. i agree with all of this
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# ? Nov 18, 2020 15:06 |
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Grape posted:Yeah, Joe Lieberman's seat is now occupied by Chris Murphy, who has been pretty cool. and ned lamont is governor lol
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# ? Nov 18, 2020 15:07 |
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So we were talking about this a bit yesterday: https://twitter.com/Redistrict/status/1328901086883799041 This brings the total to: Biden 223,936 59.1% Trump 145,290 38.4% 2016 was: Hillary 188,592 54.2% Trump 136,582 39.3% Johnson 13,305 3.8% 2012: Obama 178,491 57.8% Romney 124,769 40.4%
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# ? Nov 18, 2020 15:08 |
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https://twitter.com/SecPompeo/status/1329020941964337152 Incredible for Pompeo to break with the president on this, we've been waiting for a top-ranked republican to come out against...oh wait https://twitter.com/Reuters/status/1329024973055385600 Wasn't this like 80% last week or something zoux fucked around with this message at 15:12 on Nov 18, 2020 |
# ? Nov 18, 2020 15:10 |
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i say swears online posted:and ned lamont is governor lol It is funny to me that in contrast to the rest of the country, the down ticket Republicans actually did mostly pretty terribly here this year. The head of the local GOP party is even like stepping down lol. Meanwhile those loving Massholes still have a Republican governor.
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# ? Nov 18, 2020 15:10 |
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# ? May 4, 2024 13:21 |
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Okay with it being more than two weeks past the election and this thread essentially turning into USPOL 2, we're going to close up shop here and reboot the thread in the coming days. If you have any suggestions for the new thread, I encourage you to PM them to me. Thanks all!
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# ? Nov 18, 2020 15:20 |