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goethe.cx posted:the thing about Nixon's silent majority is that it actually was reflected in polling. most americans approved of him/vietnam despite the forceful protests. Trump seems to think he has the backing of a silent majority that is so silent it doesn't show up in any polls exactly. the silent majority is on bidens side for various reasons. people are loving tired of trump and his gently caress ups.
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Jun 15, 2020 20:25
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https://mobile.twitter.com/JuddLegum/status/1272552627268653056?s=20 More and more it seems that the trump campaign uses fomo as the biggest drive to fleece his base. It's been discussed that in 16 it was a way to draw in people that typically didn't get involved in politics, and it worked amazingly well for him. It has the ability to inflate numbers by getting in people that are low info, and at the same time it massively increases the ability to get email and donor lists. But it only really works when your the underdog or viewed as one, someone that is upsetting the whole environment. Now it actually looks more transparently false because he has been in office for 4 years, people know who he is and are more aware of the trucks he uses to seem bigger then he is. More people are seeing acts like this as made up, with most of the rallies being largely setpieces. The fact that he is using ad money to signal boost that tickets are going fast and don't miss out isn't a good use of his funding either. Trump isn't reaching new voters anymore, his base is as big as it will ever get with everyone in the country knowing who he is, what he stands for, and what he actually does. The same tactics used in 16 actually make him look weaker and have less outreach then before with less success each time.
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Jun 15, 2020 21:13
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https://twitter.com/NateSilver538/status/1272610740285968386?s=20 https://twitter.com/NateSilver538/status/1272611736202481664?s=20 This seems to confirm what we're seeing: namely that Trump's campaign is rapidly taking on water and looks to be in bad shape. Nate's point that it's still early is also a good one, we're still 5 months from election day which is an eternity in hellworld. They also have their elasticity scores ready. Iowa being so high up might mean it's actually in play. https://twitter.com/NateSilver538/status/1272618296571985920?s=20
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Jun 15, 2020 21:17
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My biggest takeway from this is that Biden is over 50+ in a lot of places - which I think speaks to enthusiasm for voting against Trump/for Biden in a way that Clinton never had. I think 538's weird poll of polls aggregate is probably undercounting Biden's lead.
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Jun 15, 2020 21:23
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Seven Hundred Bee posted:My biggest takeway from this is that Biden is over 50+ in a lot of places - which I think speaks to enthusiasm for voting against Trump/for Biden in a way that Clinton never had. I think 538's weird poll of polls aggregate is probably undercounting Biden's lead. It's possible. This doesn't include any of the other special sauce they have to make their model, it's just a straight polling average. They used to heavily advise against looking at their polls only model.
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Jun 15, 2020 21:25
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Seven Hundred Bee posted:My biggest takeway from this is that Biden is over 50+ in a lot of places - which I think speaks to enthusiasm for voting against Trump/for Biden in a way that Clinton never had. I think 538's weird poll of polls aggregate is probably undercounting Biden's lead. i wont go that far yet, but i do think enough of moderates/indies in 2016 viewed clinton as the "greater evil" compared to trump. now thats reversed. trumps burned every bridge outside his base as many better goon have already state. i do worry about a 1948 type scenario but there were different factors in that race than this one. Dapper_Swindler fucked around with this message at 21:43 on Jun 15, 2020 |
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Jun 15, 2020 21:40
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republican internal poll from Maine... from April: https://twitter.com/Politics_Polls/status/1272366620212703239 and some Trump polls: https://twitter.com/Politics_Polls/status/1272522717514825728 rasmussen! https://twitter.com/Politics_Polls/status/1272601911372517378 not sure how they're getting this average, but yikes
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Jun 15, 2020 21:42
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Seven Hundred Bee posted:republican internal poll from Maine... from April: i think its just everything catching up with trump and folks realizing that he is just a loud bigoted fuckhead who is also a giant coward who waffles on every issues except when it matter and than he picks the worst choices. trumps also ripped the mask off of alot the US lovely policies and such. i think the covid disaster broke alot of folks.
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Jun 15, 2020 21:48
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Seven Hundred Bee posted:and some Trump polls: These are the same poll.
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Jun 15, 2020 21:51
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the 2nd poll is just battleground states, not national - although I assume they're averaging results from those states - rasmussen is showing Trump down 12, though https://justthenews.com/politics-policy/polling/just-news-poll-shows-biden-48-36-trump-biden-now-leads-14-among
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Jun 15, 2020 22:01
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If there is no World Series this year, the Cubs cannot win it thereby causing the Republican to win.
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Jun 15, 2020 23:52
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Dapper_Swindler posted:i think its just everything catching up with trump and folks realizing that he is just a loud bigoted fuckhead who is also a giant coward who waffles on every issues except when it matter and than he picks the worst choices. trumps also ripped the mask off of alot the US lovely policies and such. i think the covid disaster broke alot of folks. It is early in the race, and these numbers will tighten.
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Jun 16, 2020 00:50
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CelestialScribe posted:It is early in the race, and these numbers will tighten. sure but i am curious by how much. the numbers with clinton and trump had tighted a bunch by this point.
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Jun 16, 2020 01:30
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CelestialScribe posted:It is early in the race, and these numbers will tighten. Why do you think that? Right now the gap is growing, not shrinking, and we have no evidence Trump is addressing the specific reasons why he's shedding voters - in fact he seems to be doubling down on the things voters find most objectionable. Trump has been running attack ads for the last few months with no observable effect.
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Jun 16, 2020 01:46
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It is also worth noting that Trump's approval will go down even further as the pandemic re-intensifies and death numbers start to skyrocket, and he doubles down on a non-response.
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Jun 16, 2020 01:54
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Trump saying "if we stopped doing tests we'd have fewer cases" is Not A Good Re-election Look.
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Jun 16, 2020 01:59
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CelestialScribe posted:My money is on Warren or Baldwin. They seem the most logical choices, esp. as Warren and Biden seem to have patched up whatever feud they had years ago. Of the leaked names Warren would almost certainly perform the best in November, but I have zero expectation that Biden's backers would be remotely interested in risking putting her in the White House.
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Jun 16, 2020 02:06
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Seven Hundred Bee posted:Why do you think that? Right now the gap is growing, not shrinking, and we have no evidence Trump is addressing the specific reasons why he's shedding voters - in fact he seems to be doubling down on the things voters find most objectionable. Trump has been running attack ads for the last few months with no observable effect. Because the numbers always tighten in an election race. The same thing happened four years ago - the numbers widen, and then they tighten around convention time. I don't think it'll be anywhere near as close as '16, but I'd bet good money this lead will shrink to something like 4-5 points by August-September.
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Jun 16, 2020 02:31
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CelestialScribe posted:Because the numbers always tighten in an election race. The same thing happened four years ago - the numbers widen, and then they tighten around convention time. I don't think it'll be anywhere near as close as '16, but I'd bet good money this lead will shrink to something like 4-5 points by August-September. They don’t. Take, say, 2008.
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Jun 16, 2020 02:36
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CelestialScribe posted:Because the numbers always tighten in an election race. The same thing happened four years ago - the numbers widen, and then they tighten around convention time. I don't think it'll be anywhere near as close as '16, but I'd bet good money this lead will shrink to something like 4-5 points by August-September. My prediction is it never gets within 10: Trump seems committed to riding his worst impulses down with the ship, his standing will only get worse as deaths mount, and he seems more committed to attacking his own party than Biden. Also, as repeatedly shown, Brad Parscale is an incompetent buffoon with the electoral instincts of a grapefruit. Purposefully killing your own voters in Oklahoma seems... very dumb. In 2016 competent campaign professionals made up for Trump's shortcomings - and all those people have since been run out of the campaign.
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Jun 16, 2020 02:38
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evilweasel posted:They don’t. Take, say, 2008. I'm not sure what you mean: https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2008/president/us/general_election_mccain_vs_obama-225.html
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Jun 16, 2020 02:43
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axeil posted:https://twitter.com/NateSilver538/status/1272610740285968386?s=20 The important thing to note here is that Trump is sinking but Biden isn't gaining a whole lot. If these are discouraged voters who have firmly decided not to vote or to vote 3rd party the drop may stick, but Biden should be worried that a lot of these embarrassed Republicans will come back into the fold between now and November. It will be interesting to see if Biden's lead firms up by bringing up the % affirmatively voting for him. If I were Biden I would feel a lot better about a 2% Trump drop and a 2% Biden gain than I'd feel about a 4% Trump drop with no Biden gain.
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Jun 16, 2020 02:50
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CelestialScribe posted:I'm not sure what you mean: The only real tightening was the conventions after which the race opened up into a bigger lead.
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Jun 16, 2020 03:26
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evilweasel posted:The only real tightening was the conventions after which the race opened up into a bigger lead. Yes, that's what I'm saying.
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Jun 16, 2020 03:28
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The GOP convention may be such a poo poo show this year that Trump doesn’t even get a bounce from it.
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Jun 16, 2020 03:29
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We're doing another gangtag donations drive, this time for the Bail Project, dedicated to helping low-income people make bail and avoid pretrial detention. $5 or more gets you this:
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Jun 16, 2020 03:32
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A GIANT PARSNIP posted:The GOP convention may be such a poo poo show this year that Trump doesn’t even get a bounce from it. its gonna be a shitshow and i sorta suspect it wont happen if poo poo in florida gets bad enough. Seven Hundred Bee posted:My prediction is it never gets within 10: Trump seems committed to riding his worst impulses down with the ship, his standing will only get worse as deaths mount, and he seems more committed to attacking his own party than Biden. Also, as repeatedly shown, Brad Parscale is an incompetent buffoon with the electoral instincts of a grapefruit. Purposefully killing your own voters in Oklahoma seems... very dumb. In 2016 competent campaign professionals made up for Trump's shortcomings - and all those people have since been run out of the campaign. yeah. all the smart ghouls have been either thrown out of his tent or have been alienated in some way and now they are pissing into his tent. the smart ones know they are probably gonna lose and now they hopping they can mitigate some of the damage. thankfully, trumps not gonna help them with that.
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Jun 16, 2020 04:34
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Dapper_Swindler posted:its gonna be a shitshow and i sorta suspect it wont happen if poo poo in florida gets bad enough. I'm curious purely from an academic perspective what happens after the GOP gave North Carolina the finger. Does it end up affecting the results? True with Coronavirus there probably wouldn't be increased business revenue/hotel bookings but to back out like that at what's basically the 11th hour is unheard of in modern politics. I'd also imagine they owe the Charlotte Convention Center millions from a contractual standpoint.
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Jun 16, 2020 05:25
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axeil posted:I'm curious purely from an academic perspective what happens after the GOP gave North Carolina the finger. Does it end up affecting the results? True with Coronavirus there probably wouldn't be increased business revenue/hotel bookings but to back out like that at what's basically the 11th hour is unheard of in modern politics. They're keeping some token portion of the convention in Charlotte to avoid the contractual issues.
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Jun 16, 2020 06:04
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axeil posted:I'm curious purely from an academic perspective what happens after the GOP gave North Carolina the finger. Does it end up affecting the results? True with Coronavirus there probably wouldn't be increased business revenue/hotel bookings but to back out like that at what's basically the 11th hour is unheard of in modern politics. The biggest thing about North Carolina compared to Florida in my mind is that the stakes are much higher in NC—not only is there the presidential race (Which, if Biden wins, effectively means Trump's lost), but the GOP is also trying to defend a senate seat that could very well be the deciding seat in the Senate, and there's the gubernatorial race on top of that. Florida by contrast doesn't have anything going on downballot, so the GOP gains absolutely nothing by shifting the convention there.
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Jun 16, 2020 07:59
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Some close polls coming out today: https://twitter.com/Politics_Polls/status/1272858266838671361 https://twitter.com/Politics_Polls/status/1272852901350658048
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Jun 16, 2020 12:53
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canepazzo posted:Some close polls coming out today: Christ. If this keeps up into the fall, he will lose in a landslide. I doubt Michigan and Pennsylvania and Arizona and others will change that much. https://twitter.com/Politics_Polls/status/1272854711591264256 Dapper_Swindler fucked around with this message at 14:09 on Jun 16, 2020 |
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Jun 16, 2020 14:06
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canepazzo posted:Some close polls coming out today: These polls all have Biden over 50 and between 6 and 13% undecided, which is a low undecided # compared to 2016. I wonder if they pushed leaners to respond one way or the other. We'd previously been seeing Trump's number collapse but Biden's stay kinda steady, this is the first where Biden's number is up a lot.
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Jun 16, 2020 14:47
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https://twitter.com/AdamJSmithGA/status/1272913242633928710 geogia will probably flip to trump but holy poo poo.
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Jun 16, 2020 17:03
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canepazzo posted:Some close polls coming out today: My initial response was "There's no loving way Biden is up 10 in Florida, come on now" but the pollster is rated A/B by 538 so  . Still has to be an outlier, but even if Biden is only up 5 in reality that's still disastrous for Trump.
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Jun 16, 2020 17:30
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I wonder if its in part the demographic shift from the Puerto Rico exodus finally making itself known?
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Jun 16, 2020 17:40
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Seven Hundred Bee posted:I wonder if its in part the demographic shift from the Puerto Rico exodus finally making itself known? Plus released felons who can now vote.
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Jun 16, 2020 17:41
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So about that Trump pivot to attack Biden on police reform from the left...
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Jun 16, 2020 17:51
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awesmoe posted:https://twitter.com/lib_crusher/status/1272192636749742081 Yeah, IIRC last year both campaigns literally maxed out what they could spend on advertising in swing states; they had money to spend, but there was no available time left to buy. I don’t think the ad buy in DC is that awful a waste given that.
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Jun 16, 2020 19:11
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1-800-DOCTORB posted:Plus released felons who can now vote. Yeah I think this has definitely been understated in terms of impact. You're looking at 1m-odd newly eligible voters (actively being registered by voting rights orgs) who are demographically heavily Dem leaning due to the insanely racist justice system. Given that state-wide races in 2018 were decided on margins of less than 100k, that enfranchisement alone would have likely tipped Florida blue, all else being equal. And of course all else is definitely not equal!
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Jun 16, 2020 19:54
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