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https://i.imgur.com/RxN8hYH.mp4 So in the theme of regional threads, one for the former socialist bloc in Europe makes sense. These states are incredibly diverse, but over the past decades have seen the destruction of socialist systems, the brutal implementation of neoliberal capitalism, and a political sphere often dominated by reactionaries. A lot of the same political trends occur across the vast region. Belarus https://twitter.com/evangershkovich/status/1294974816114679808?s=20 https://twitter.com/franakviacorka/status/1294908760880816129?s=20 The Radio Liberty/Atlantic Council guy above is pretending that the chant is "radio liberty" instead of "give us liberty." Never trust US propagandists! https://twitter.com/nypost/status/1293583686466785281?s=20 https://twitter.com/kazbek/status/1295092256022695936?s=20 Currently having a massive protest movement after suspicious election results. The current president Lukashenko came down hard on the protests. If Lukashenko is overthrown, NATO and western vultures hope to swoop in and privatize what remains of the social services in the country. quote:Lukashenko’s traditional approach was to secure his position by guaranteeing Belarusian neutrality and a degree of engagement with Europe, while demanding subsidies from Russia that would enable him to buy the allegiance of the population. However, that bargain frayed in the years after the Ukraine crisis of 2014, when Lukashenko’s room for geopolitical maneuver between Russia and the West contracted. Moreover, Lukashenko, despite his willingness to work with the Kremlin, has always wanted to be president of an independent Belarusian state, not a governor of a province in greater Russia. He was reportedly unnerved by proposals that began to be floated as to how Russian president Vladimir Putin might circumvent the then-ban on standing again for the presidency in 2024—which envisioned Putin taking the helm of the currently moribund Russia-Belarus “Union State” and turning that position into a new and more powerful chief executive role that would effectively demote Lukashenko. quote:In the last decade, it became apparent that there is almost no way to oppose inequality and authoritarianism in the post-Soviet space without this struggle being co-opted into an anti-communist, or anti-leftist, position – even though the ‘authoritarians’ are quite vehemently anti-communist themselves. The anti-socialist sentiments in society are so strong that the two polar opposites to communism – capitalism and nationalism – come sweeping in and claim the protestors. https://www.rt.com/russia/498140-minsk-protests-similar-kiev-moscow/ I admit I’m no expert on Belarus, and I’d be delighted to find out that there are strong working class organizations on the ground to turn to. Russia Rigged the US election in 2016 by poo poo-posting, and the CIA says they’re going to do it again in 2020. In reality it’s a country with a lot of stuff going on internally and diplomatically. From gas deals with Europe, to Crimea, and the Syrian War, and that’s just the stuff that consistently makes headlines. Also may have invented the COVID-19 vaccine? Guess we’ll find out soon if that’s real. Oliver Stone interviewed Putin a few years ago. So you can listen to the devil himself. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=GfRhd3VEt78 Ukraine We need to talk about commercial surrogacy https://www.newyorker.com/news/news-desk/the-stranded-babies-of-the-coronavirus-disaster quote:As a result, every year, thousands of would-be parents travel abroad, to the handful of countries where surrogacy is legal. One of the biggest destinations is the United States, which has cutting-edge reproductive technology and the most permissive laws: both same-sex couples and unmarried people can have children via a surrogate. But the price tag is out of reach for many people, and, in the past decade, Ukraine has emerged as a cheaper alternative. Ukrainian surrogates give birth to several thousand babies every year, the majority of whom have foreign parents. The country has around fifty reproductive clinics and numerous agencies that act as middlemen, matching couples with egg donors and surrogates. Also this is probably the thread where we get nostalgic about Tito too https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=0RRnCnO1Y2c Atrocious Joe has issued a correction as of 03:13 on Aug 18, 2020 |
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Aug 16, 2020 23:01
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i have a few armenian friends and judging by their posts things are getting bad even in the us between expat communities, supposedly there have been stabbings in glendale and fights regularly, i don't know how true that is though is it ok if i don't shed tears for lukashenko? it sucks that there's no space to be both anti-authoritarian and anti-imperialist
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Aug 16, 2020 23:06
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I would say Belarus is in a situation that is still unknown in exactly what the demands of the opposition (despite the obvious) are including even new elections or not (if not Tsikhanouskaya would just be president without a valid vote...I don't know how that would be democratic). In the end, it is unclear if the opposition wants a full cultural shift, dissolving the Union state and/or mass privatization. It is assumed by some that the opposition wants just internal political reform, but the opposition really hasn't stated it or given assurances in the last week. That said, I would say that is clear grievances going on (COVID/economics) that have brought people to the streets but a lot of it boils down to what the opposition actually wants to do. As along as there is that ambiguity, who knows? I don't know how it will shake out, but to me the current "we will figure it out afterwards" attitude is at very least an issue of concern. ------------------- That said, in Russia, there is clearly seething anger at the government that has been building across the last year and a half after pensions got slashed. This has been compounded by COVID (Russia did a poor job, maybe not the worst but certainly very poor), that welfare payments were purely tied to number of children, and the general growing inequalities in Russian society. It isn't even the fact that the Russian government is low on funds or is in dire straits currency reserves are near an all time high, but that I guess VVP loves living life on the edge and wants to see how far he can push it. The irony is that while Russia has been pushing more aggressively outside its borders to a fair amount of success, internally the country is still very clearly mismanaged. (I don't know why Lukashenko (for example) just doesn't resort to economic populism either.) Ardennes has issued a correction as of 17:01 on Aug 17, 2020 |
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Aug 17, 2020 00:47
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Oh I heard this poo poo absolutely rules here's a link I stumbled onto https://twitter.com/franakviacorka/status/1295257067419242497 sounds like fun
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Aug 17, 2020 08:27
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It looks like all the plausible outcomes for Belarus are lovely in one way or another. Lukashenko seems like definitely the most lovely, though. Oh well. Why did I ever think anything could turn out well in the short term?
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Aug 17, 2020 14:47
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Thanks for making this thread, because I've been living in a weird situation I must tell about. At work I'm involved with half as many Belarusians as non-Belarusians (they work remotely as superexploited labor). Urban liberal young men, half of whom are pretty activist about what's happening in there. The Finns are literally like "why isn't the EU sanctioning Belarus already or NATO sending the tanks to the border, we need to do something as the leaders of the free world!" and generally watch the unrest as if the task were to finally bring western civilization itself into Belarus and as if the local activists obviously can't help but look up to it. If I went and complained about Finnish imperialism to randos, they'd probably laugh, but holy poo poo how hard it's been revealed at me recently, like a complete mask off moment that the people taking their masks off don't notice themselves. They just casually thirst for blood like American right-wing pundits, and they're centrist libs! Politics talk at work makes me sick nowadays. So, anyway, I couldn't ignore what's happening in Belarus even if I wanted to. Today, one of the political dudes told us about unions joining the struggle, the part about the state television strike was really juicy. They sound like they're winning, too organized to beat down with violence and their concerns cut across the population widely enough that they won't abruptly run out of sympathizers, beating them up will just produce more. I've noticed that I can't help but respect people confronting a violence machine in hope of a better future, even if they're just libs with lib goals. Like, in these acute situations all a normal person can do is either play with the cards they've been dealt or fold entirely. If their political goals aren't the FYGM kind, they're good people, right? There's always this inkling of hope about well organized nationalists outside the first world, like maybe they'll push back imperialism in the country a bit and have a bit more of the cake to share. But I don't feel like I've ever seen such hopes realized? I really hope there aren't surprise Nazis in similar numbers as in Ukraine.
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Aug 17, 2020 16:31
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If Lukashenko goes, my guess is that the end result is Belarus falling closer into Russian orbit. Between him being deposed/stepping down and new elections, the opposition will splinter, average citizens will see the danger of a power vaccuum, and a plurality will go to a pro-Russian candidate who promises stability. There might be even be some fuckery like there was in eastern Ukraine and Crimea. I'm not a Russia Truther by any means, but Putin does not want to let go of Belarus so easily. The Union State has been a long term project of his. Hell, he even wanted to use the concept to constitutionally stay on as president of a supranational entity containing Russia and Belarus.
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Aug 17, 2020 16:44
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Right, I've was told that Russia has so far said that they want to stay out of it as long as the opposition is a homegrown movement, because the gamble wouldn't be worth it if they are not being driven out. It's a good incentive for the opposition not to invite western imperialisms in with open arms. The opposition splintering would suck for the country though and it looks pretty likely now that you said it. I heard that it's composed of basically all the anti-Lukashenko folks united by the fact that their preferred candidates were jailed before the election and there was just that one person to vote for apart from him.
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Aug 17, 2020 16:52
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well, this can't be good for weev there may be an extradition treaty in the works 
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Aug 17, 2020 16:54
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uncop posted:Right, I've was told that Russia has so far said that they want to stay out of it as long as the opposition is a homegrown movement, because the gamble wouldn't be worth it if they are not being driven out. It's a good incentive for the opposition not to invite western imperialisms in with open arms. There is a dilemma here though because while none of the outside actors partially like Lukashenko, the question again resolves around Belarus' future status. In addition, the EU has brought up potential sanctions but also seems to be dragging its feet on the issue. I think a big part of the reason he is still around is each side (the opposition, Russia, EU etc) is waiting for the other one to make their move. We will see if the US tries to stick its dick in as well. --------------------- That said, if the opposition goes in a wild direction, I don't see Russia just laying down and taking it. Russia isn't and really can't just let Belarus join the West's security umbrella even if the result is open warfare. Ardennes has issued a correction as of 17:10 on Aug 17, 2020 |
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Aug 17, 2020 17:06
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I know I have radicalized a lot, because I know seeing this stuff like six years ago would've excited me (euromaidan did lol) but now i'm just depressed, nervous about where this leads when the imperial hand is found behind all this, etc.
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Aug 17, 2020 19:25
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wait. Finland is the leader of the free world?
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Aug 17, 2020 19:34
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Granted, I think it helps to separate what is going on the ground and the people involved and the broader never ending geopolitical chess match. There are ways to resolve this that are relatively win-win for both sides. —— Also regarding Finland, it is more nationalist the you would think. Ardennes has issued a correction as of 19:45 on Aug 17, 2020 |
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Aug 17, 2020 19:37
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I've heard the chant is "give us freedom" which makes a lot more sense for the march for freedom than the name of a radio station And by heard I mean literally with my ears, in that video, "day nam svaboda" ContinuityNewTimes has issued a correction as of 19:51 on Aug 17, 2020 |
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Aug 17, 2020 19:49
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Taintrunner posted:wait. Finland is the leader of the free world? All the countries that consider their international meddling to be a favor to the party being meddled with consider themselves leaders of the free world. International imperialist cooperation allows all of them to consider themselves to have some kind of crucial transformative role in the world that would be a downright crime to abandon. They all justify their meddling basically the same way, from Finland to Canada to Japan. We have to be there, because if we weren't there, it would be worse, and if it's bad now, that's only because *the others* (which tends to include the USA because we all consider ourselves better and more worthy of leadership than you) are making it worse harder than we are able to make it better. uncop has issued a correction as of 20:01 on Aug 17, 2020 |
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Aug 17, 2020 19:52
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Victory Position posted:well, this can't be good for weev transnistria is moldova not belarus
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Aug 17, 2020 21:11
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I have one contribution to make to this thread, knowing very little about belarus, being focused far more on russia myself. https://jacobinmag.com/2020/08/belarus-protests-lukashenko-minsk but jacobin's just had an interview with left-wing writers from belarus. its fairly interesting, in how the left space is occupied by the dictator who has coopted leftwing imagery and language for his own use, combining it with soviet nostalgia and renewal to ensure that no real left wing voices are left with much power. i also feel like those tactics by lukashenko might be the reason a lot of western twitter lefties are confused, and tankies are straight up kneejerk siding with him
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Aug 17, 2020 21:26
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you can be anti-authoritarian and anti-imperialist, like the lefty general strike guys who seem to be the sharpest tools in the shed in knowing how dire things are and hopefully will be able to pull a miracle
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Aug 17, 2020 21:43
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mortons stork posted:I have one contribution to make to this thread, knowing very little about belarus, being focused far more on russia myself. That said, the guy being interviewed seems to have thrown up his hands at demanding any type of economic concessions from either side and again to just hope for the best. I think that is the issue here, Lukashenko has given just the appearance of Soviet nostalgia while the official opposition doesn't seem to have any clear economic programme. Any attempt to form an independent left has water thrown on it. Ardennes has issued a correction as of 22:06 on Aug 17, 2020 |
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Aug 17, 2020 22:01
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dead gay comedy forums posted:you can be anti-authoritarian and anti-imperialist, like the lefty general strike guys who seem to be the sharpest tools in the shed in knowing how dire things are and hopefully will be able to pull a miracle
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Aug 17, 2020 22:09
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e-dt posted:It looks like all the plausible outcomes for Belarus are lovely in one way or another. Lukashenko seems like definitely the most lovely, though. Oh well. Why did I ever think anything could turn out well in the short term? how is lukasehnko the most lovely when the other side are neolibs who want to privatize everything and immiserate millions
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Aug 17, 2020 23:33
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Doctor Jeep posted:how is lukasehnko the most lovely when the other side are neolibs who want to privatize everything and immiserate millions Admittedly, it isn't clear. It is why it is a geopolitical/political no-man's land atm.
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Aug 17, 2020 23:42
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Doctor Jeep posted:how is lukasehnko the most lovely when the other side are neolibs who want to privatize everything and immiserate millions I'm not sure what kind of fighting words are, "I'll never relinquish power, even in death," are, but they do sound grim; the question here is would the armed forces follow the letter of that to its miserable end
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Aug 17, 2020 23:49
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This has nothing to do with politics or Lukashenko, but I gotta ask it here since this thread might be the most relevant place for my question outside of D&D. I’m about to buy something from a store in Poland that I need to ship to the US, but the place I’m ordering from doesn’t do international shipping. They will ship to anywhere in Poland, though. What’s the best way to ship this thing from Poland to the US? I’m thinking I need to get it shipped from the store to a “middle man” address somewhere in Poland, and then ship it to the US from that address instead. How can I do that?
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Aug 18, 2020 01:03
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Continuity RCP posted:I've heard the chant is "give us freedom" which makes a lot more sense for the march for freedom than the name of a radio station I saw this elsewhere too, and it makes more sense and is less depressing. I'm clarifying that in the OP that's what I get for trusting some guy from the Atlantic Council
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Aug 18, 2020 03:05
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What is the worst case outcome for US interests in Belarus? I can get behind that 
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Aug 18, 2020 03:07
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Zeno-25 posted:What is the worst case outcome for US interests in Belarus? full integration of the Union State, which then fuses with the Eurasian Union to form USSR 2.0
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Aug 18, 2020 03:24
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twoday posted:full integration of the Union State, which then fuses with the Eurasian Union to form USSR 2.0 I think you are skipping just a few steps
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Aug 18, 2020 03:42
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dead gay comedy forums posted:I think you are skipping just a few steps chinese belt and road annex kazakhstan china belarus russia kazakhsatn union state ussr 2.0 bing bong so simple
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Aug 18, 2020 05:42
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twoday posted:full integration of the Union State, which then fuses with the Eurasian Union to form USSR 2.0 you forgot that ukraine joins
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Aug 18, 2020 06:14
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Ardennes posted:That said, the guy being interviewed seems to have thrown up his hands at demanding any type of economic concessions from either side and again to just hope for the best. I think that is the issue here, Lukashenko has given just the appearance of Soviet nostalgia while the official opposition doesn't seem to have any clear economic programme. It looks like this everywhere though. The left is so powerless to influence policy proposal, even during mass upheaval. It is disheartening, to say the least.
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Aug 18, 2020 08:21
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Atrocious Joe posted:I saw this elsewhere too, and it makes more sense and is less depressing. I'm clarifying that in the OP Mark Ames can eat a bag of dicks too
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Aug 18, 2020 08:21
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Doctor Jeep posted:how is lukasehnko the most lovely when the other side are neolibs who want to privatize everything and immiserate millions I assumed that the protests spoke for the majority of Belarusians. Obviously I would rather Belarus not go through shock  therapy. Although looking at the Jacobin interview posted above, it seems like Lukashenko has been pursuing some neoliberal policies as well:quote:Additionally, the government has been consistently dismantling the welfare state model and its social obligations to its citizens. This was apparent with the 2004 introduction of individual contracts with workers instead of collective agreements; the 2017 “tax on unemployment”; and the exclusion of military service, maternity leave, and university or college studies from the years that count toward your pension. The tight monetary policy of the past five years also led to a wage freeze, while prices continued to rise.
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Aug 18, 2020 08:44
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e-dt posted:I assumed that the protests spoke for the majority of Belarusians. Obviously I would rather Belarus not go through shock what if they do speak for the majority? i don't see what importance that has if we're talking about material consequences. regarding lukashenko's neolib policies, yeah i can believe he did that, and?
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Aug 18, 2020 09:14
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Doctor Jeep posted:what if they do speak for the majority? i don't see what importance that has if we're talking about material consequences. you're probably right, my opinion earlier was coming from a place of ignorance
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Aug 18, 2020 09:25
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Doctor Jeep posted:what if they do speak for the majority? i don't see what importance that has if we're talking about material consequences. Active hostility to the concept of democracy is quite a stance
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Aug 18, 2020 09:28
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I can kind if understand it from the point of view of class dictatorship but this is just the dictatorship of a dude
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Aug 18, 2020 09:29
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Continuity RCP posted:Active hostility to the concept of democracy is quite a stance Continuity RCP posted:I can kind if understand it from the point of view of class dictatorship but this is just the dictatorship of a dude how about you try actually understanding what i wrote instead of inventing this "active hostility" or are you also calling the people who criticize donald trump's response to the covid epidemic in the US "actively hostile" to democracy because he won an election which means nothing he does may be criticized
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Aug 18, 2020 09:47
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Doctor Jeep posted:how about you try actually understanding what i wrote instead of inventing this "active hostility" Your position appears to be that the Belarusians can't topple their dictator because some of them are liberals. E: or perhaps that the protests are worse than the dictator, again because liberals
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Aug 18, 2020 10:11
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Taintrunner posted:wait. Finland is the leader of the free world? what country does consider itself that in the coming decades, insofar as dictating neoliberal policy world wide and starting wars everywhere and defending capitalism at all costs a miraculous US recovery? the EU? china??? or is capitalism free of enough threats to keep itself going without any country leading as much as the US did before climate change kills everyone
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