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Doktor Avalanche
Dec 30, 2008

Continuity RCP posted:

Your position appears to be that the Belarusians can't topple their dictator because some of them are liberals.

E: or perhaps that the protests are worse than the dictator, again because liberals

belarusians can do whatever they want
my position is that the neolibs will end up in charge and commence with selling off everything, that's it

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uncop
Oct 23, 2010
People often demand way too little evidence that leaders utilizing vaguely leftist rhetoric are an anti-imperialist force. It’s pretty rare that comprador governments are obviously and totally in the pocket of some specific imperialist, most try to put on the air of just playing foreigners against each other to reap some benefits if it’s at all possible. Duterte in Philippines is a good example of that type of comprador who manages to initially fool people about being anti-imperialist. Incidentally he’s still managing to fool a lot of ignorant people abroad without even trying to look leftist!

IMO, you should listen to imperialists whining about who’s causing trouble for them, and what sort of trouble. I don’t think I’ve ever heard that sort of talk about Lukashenko, he’s always been tolerated with mild criticism about authoritarianism like you see leveled at Hungary. OTOH he really triggers my comprador-sense when he depicts the situation as if the only options were the couple of big scary imperialist forces close by, and the only thing keeping them at bay is him skillfully playing them against each other. The telltale sign of comprador ideology IMO is that the only thing that can protect you from an imperialist are the graces of a less malevolent one (often presented as not imperialist at all, but it depends).

uncop has issued a correction as of 12:25 on Aug 18, 2020

Venomous
Nov 7, 2011





https://twitter.com/franakviacorka/status/1295708815053160450?s=19

this is just a poo poo situation entirely, isn't it. Whatever happens, the people of Belarus lose

Jordan7hm
Feb 17, 2011




Lipstick Apathy

Venomous posted:

https://twitter.com/franakviacorka/status/1295708815053160450?s=19

this is just a poo poo situation entirely, isn't it. Whatever happens, the people of Belarus lose

Nah, I’m pretty sure the dictator getting kicked out is a net good at this point. Ideally he goes the way of Ceausescu but not holding my breath.

Farmer Crack-Ass
Jan 2, 2001

this is me posting irl

Zeno-25 posted:

What is the worst case outcome for US interests in Belarus?

I can get behind that :d2a:

i thought treating countries like chess pieces was bad

Top City Homo
Oct 15, 2014


Ramrod XTreme

Jordan7hm posted:

Nah, I’m pretty sure the dictator getting kicked out is a net good at this point. Ideally he goes the way of Ceausescu but not holding my breath.

gently caress u idiot

Ghost of Mussolini
Jun 26, 2011

Jordan7hm posted:

Nah, I’m pretty sure the dictator getting kicked out is a net good at this point. Ideally he goes the way of Ceausescu but not holding my breath.
When I think "ideally" I think "Romania in the 90s".

Victory Position
Mar 16, 2004

I. M. Gei posted:

This has nothing to do with politics or Lukashenko, but I gotta ask it here since this thread might be the most relevant place for my question outside of D&D.

I’m about to buy something from a store in Poland that I need to ship to the US, but the place I’m ordering from doesn’t do international shipping. They will ship to anywhere in Poland, though. What’s the best way to ship this thing from Poland to the US?

can you find an escrow service that can arrange for overseas shipment? you're starting to get into a bit of technical territory since you may have to forward your own freight, so before that, are you sure that DHL can't handle it? they can practically walk anyone through a shipment if they get involved

dead gay comedy forums
Oct 21, 2011


Jordan7hm posted:

Nah, I’m pretty sure the dictator getting kicked out is a net good at this point. Ideally he goes the way of Ceausescu but not holding my breath.

beaten but repeating for emphasis: if you ideal scenario is 1990s Romania, holy loving lmao

Maximo Roboto
Feb 4, 2012

Doctor Jeep posted:

belarusians can do whatever they want
my position is that the neolibs will end up in charge and commence with selling off everything, that's it

Better things aren’t possible

Atrocious Joe
Sep 2, 2011

Some interesting stuff
https://twitter.com/27khv/status/1295764417032921090?s=20

quote:

Belarusian opposition leader Maria Kolesnikova, one of the three women that fought Belarus' self-appointed president Alexander Lukashenko in the August 9 presidential elections, says it's too soon for EU sanctions that will only make negotiations with the state more difficult.

The EU imposed selective personal sanctions against Lukashenko and members of his entourage involved in falsifying the elections and unleashing the brutal police crackdown on the protests that followed last week.

The EU is still deliberating but expects to announce more measures by the end of the month.

However, Kolesnikova says the measures will hinder the chances of Brussels and the Belarusian opposition of starting a dialogue on Lukashenko’s exit from power. Kolesnikova is now the only member of the trio still in Minsk after her colleagues Svetlana Tikhanovskaya, who actually won the election according to independent polls, and Veronika Tsepkalo both fled the country last week under duress and to escape arrest.

Kolesnikova joined forces with Tikhanovskaya and was formerly the campaign manager for jailed ex-banker and leading opposition candidate Viktor Babariko.

The time for penalties "is not yet ripe", Kolesnikova said in an interview with the German newspaper Welt am Sonntag, published on Saturday August 15.

“Economic sanctions will hit ordinary Belarusians in one way or another, as the past shows,” Kolesnikova said. At the same time, sanctions against specific Belarusian politicians will worsen the chances of the EU, as well as the chances of the opposition in Belarus, of holding a dialogue with officials in Minsk on forming a transition government.
I've never read this site before, but it seems like it's a German based business news outlet, so it seems lefit. I'm assuming this is the view of the current financial elite in Belarus, if the campaign manager of the banker (and philanthropist) who was disqualified from running is saying it.

The do outright quote the Gene Sharp theory of regime change later on without citation though, which is sort of funny.

quote:

The protests have reached a critical mass and Lukashenko’s rule now appears untenable. Belarus has reached the “3.5% rule” limit: a rule of thumb holds that peaceful protests are twice as likely to succeed than violent ones, and no protest movement that has engaged 3.5% of the population has ever failed. With a population of 10mn, Belarus needs to have 300,000 join the protest to reach this threshold and passed that number at the weekend.
https://intellinews.com/belarus-opposition-leader-maria-kolesnikova-says-it-s-too-soon-for-sanctions-189795/?source=belarus

mortons stork
Oct 13, 2012
Коммерсантъ is russian ft basically. Decent reporting on markets, technical stuff
Subs cost a pretty penny, but they do tend to get facts right in my experience. Along with another outlet they are the voice of the business class

e: i actually realized you were talking about another outlet. my bad, i cannot read. leaving my shame up for all to see.

mortons stork has issued a correction as of 19:15 on Aug 18, 2020

Atrocious Joe
Sep 2, 2011

I don't know anything about European news outlets, so I'm fine with any clarification. But yeah, if it was unclear I was looking at intellinews.

At least with mideast media you just need to look at what gulf state it's based in to know it's point of view

Doktor Avalanche
Dec 30, 2008

Maximo Roboto posted:

Better things aren’t possible

they're possible, just not probable
it's called pattern recognition

Venomous
Nov 7, 2011





iirc Die Welt is basically the German equivalent of the Daily Telegraph, ie. extremely conservative, anti-Russian, and incredibly scummy

Gaupo Guacho
Aug 5, 2010

by Pragmatica
I miss the USSR. ppl who protest should be run over with t34s.

Gaupo Guacho
Aug 5, 2010

by Pragmatica

Continuity RCP posted:

Your position appears to be that the Belarusians can't topple their dictator because some of them are liberals.

E: or perhaps that the protests are worse than the dictator, again because liberals
pretty much anyone who protests a dictator is by definition a liberal therefore dictators are always preferable. its pretty simple praxis/theory/immortal science stuff. you need to brush up.

ContinuityNewTimes
Dec 30, 2010

Я выдуман напрочь

Gaupo Guacho posted:

pretty much anyone who protests a dictator is by definition a liberal therefore dictators are always preferable. its pretty simple praxis/theory/immortal science stuff. you need to brush up.

this is the most tepid poo poo imaginable

Lostconfused
Oct 1, 2008

Just ignore the imperialist troll.

Its Coke
Oct 29, 2018
it's weird how all the former Soviet states immediately broke off once the union dissolved. almost like they were colonies gaining independence from an empire that no longer had the power to control them. but that doesn't make sense because empires can only be capitalist

Ardennes
May 12, 2002

Its Coke posted:

it's weird how all the former Soviet states immediately broke off once the union dissolved. almost like they were colonies gaining independence from an empire that no longer had the power to control them. but that doesn't make sense because empires can only be capitalist

A bunch of the republics wanted to the union to continue but literally couldn't once Yeltsin withdrew. In all honesty, if the smaller union had survived, it probably would have led to a bunch better material outcome for the region's population.


As for when Lenin was talking about imperialism, he wasn't necessarily talking about the concept of an state dominating other states (which he didn't have a problem with) but particularly how the West conducted itself.

Ardennes has issued a correction as of 21:58 on Aug 18, 2020

ContinuityNewTimes
Dec 30, 2010

Я выдуман напрочь
The Bolsheviks trying to restore the borders of imperial Russia isn't imperialism because Menshevik Georgia and Finland were existential threats to the soviet union

Ardennes
May 12, 2002

Continuity RCP posted:

The Bolsheviks trying to restore the borders of imperial Russia isn't imperialism because Menshevik Georgia and Finland were existential threats to the soviet union

The Bolsheviks went into the Caucasus pretty much just for Baku, and Armenia/Georgia were an afterthought and the Bolsheviks were officially supporting Finnish Communists during their Civil War. Also, the portions of RSFSR was actively occupied by Western/Japanese forces until 1922.

I am just going to keep on spitting history.

ContinuityNewTimes
Dec 30, 2010

Я выдуман напрочь
I personally don't think the annexations being afterthoughts actually helps

Ardennes
May 12, 2002

Continuity RCP posted:

I personally don't think the annexations being afterthoughts actually helps

At least in Armenia, there was a local Bolshevik uprising that generally paved the way for the Red Army. This was after almost the entirety of Armenia had been occupied/ethnically cleansed by Turkish forces. Georgia was more of a traditional invasion, big part of it was to secure the Baku-Batumi pipeline.

Top City Homo
Oct 15, 2014


Ramrod XTreme
amazing how all these "ironic" hot takes by the most smooth brained posters is always associated with not knowing any history or theory

absolule dullards

a plague on the earth reproducing their toxic garbage culture like a virus plague on the human psyche

Top City Homo has issued a correction as of 22:44 on Aug 18, 2020

dead gay comedy forums
Oct 21, 2011


Its Coke posted:

it's weird how all the former Soviet states immediately broke off once the union dissolved. almost like they were colonies gaining independence from an empire that no longer had the power to control them. but that doesn't make sense because empires can only be capitalist

if you are talking about the constituent Soviet republics, that is one hell of a bad sell there

78% of voters in the 1991 referendum across all constituent states voted to remain together, 113 and a half million votes in favor total, validated independently by the West

however that was no loving good for NATO, Gorbachev got wise too goddamned late and realized he had been played and his reforms had to be proposed a good while ago; Yeltsin was ready to go full reckless dumbass mode and he told every local directory to basically go gently caress themselves

Ghost of Mussolini
Jun 26, 2011

dead gay comedy forums posted:

Gorbachev got wise too goddamned late and realized he had been played and his reforms had to be proposed a good while ago
Not to exculpate everyone else involved (internal or external) but Gorby played himself from day 1 and has nobody to blame but himself first

Gaupo Guacho
Aug 5, 2010

by Pragmatica

Top City Homo posted:

amazing how all these "ironic" hot takes by the most smooth brained posters is always associated with not knowing any history or theory

absolule dullards

a plague on the earth reproducing their toxic garbage culture like a virus plague on the human psyche
don't worry, although you're a sad and angry person now, marxism will eventually prevail

its definitely not a dead-end in history that hasn't been relevant for thirty years

dead gay comedy forums
Oct 21, 2011


Ghost of Mussolini posted:

Not to exculpate everyone else involved (internal or external) but Gorby played himself from day 1 and has nobody to blame but himself first

that's more or less what I meant lmao

Gaupo Guacho posted:

its definitely not a dead-end in history that hasn't been relevant for thirty years

yet the ghost of it still haunts the poo poo out of liberals for some reason

Ardennes
May 12, 2002

Gaupo Guacho posted:

don't worry, although you're a sad and angry person now, marxism will eventually prevail

its definitely not a dead-end in history that hasn't been relevant for thirty years

World's most powerful country (in a few years) is at very least a de jure Marxist-Leninist state. Also, quite a few countries it does business with/backs are run by Marxist-Leninist parties.

(There is an ongoing debate in the East Asia thread on how M-List the PRC is in the East Asia thread.)

dead gay comedy forums
Oct 21, 2011


Vietnam right now is deffo more communist than the PRC haha

Ardennes
May 12, 2002

dead gay comedy forums posted:

Vietnam right now is deffo more communist than the PRC haha

They are pretty similar in reality.

twoday
May 4, 2005



C-SPAM Times best-selling author
the holy roman empire was neither holy, nor roman, nor an empire

Algund Eenboom
May 4, 2014

Gaupo Guacho posted:

don't worry, although you're a sad and angry person now, marxism will eventually prevail

its definitely not a dead-end in history that hasn't been relevant for thirty years

Im going to press the post history button in this post and see what happens

Algund Eenboom
May 4, 2014

Uh-oh

Algund Eenboom
May 4, 2014

Not looking good

Algund Eenboom
May 4, 2014

Well that's too bad. I hope you enjoy the rest of cspam

Atrocious Joe
Sep 2, 2011

mortons stork posted:

I have one contribution to make to this thread, knowing very little about belarus, being focused far more on russia myself.
https://jacobinmag.com/2020/08/belarus-protests-lukashenko-minsk
but jacobin's just had an interview with left-wing writers from belarus. its fairly interesting, in how the left space is occupied by the dictator who has coopted leftwing imagery and language for his own use, combining it with soviet nostalgia and renewal to ensure that no real left wing voices are left with much power. i also feel like those tactics by lukashenko might be the reason a lot of western twitter lefties are confused, and tankies are straight up kneejerk siding with him

this interview was good. the one writer's disdain for pro-Soviet YouTube was sort of funny. Are Soviet YouTube channels really that influential, or does that writer just have a political disagreement with them.

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Top City Homo
Oct 15, 2014


Ramrod XTreme

Atrocious Joe posted:

this interview was good. the one writer's disdain for pro-Soviet YouTube was sort of funny. Are Soviet YouTube channels really that influential, or does that writer just have a political disagreement with them.

soviet youtube is very informative and many are active in organizing labor unions or discussing marxism, communist revolutions and soviet and russian history in incredible detail unseen in english channels

i think he has problems with academic marxists who ignore organizing and and recommend waiting out all recent revolutionary moments

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