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I am skeptical the Russian government would do such a thing, but certainly it would be smarter on their part to start paying attention to increasing unhappiness in their borders (or look at Belarus) and adjust accordingly. More than corruption itself, the real thing holding back Russia has been that the Russian state has generally married a highly centralized state with fresh-water neoliberal domestic policy and the result has been predictable. Russia has some elements of the country it once was. The state still owns most of the "commanding heights" of the economy (finance, health care, energy, much of the country's manufacturing and mining) but generally has done its best the dividends of the state control rarely make it to average Russians. Russia has fairly low unemployment historically, but that is traditionally been married with low wages. Some of this maybe be due to paranoia about Western sanctions and the destabilization of the Ruble, but the country has nearly 600 billion in foreign exchange reserves. It isn't the Soviet Union during the late 1980s. I would say before a UBI, the Russian state just needs to first actually spend some infrastructure outside of Moscow and modernize its health-care system. The pension reforms were a prime illustration moronic stupid beltway-esque policy that the Kremlin still ceaselessly follows even if it has endangered the regime more than all the Western sanctions combined. If anything the Russian state makes it easy for the CIA by doing nearly all the heavy lifting for them. Ardennes has issued a correction as of 23:56 on Sep 9, 2020 |
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Sep 9, 2020 23:43
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even highly competent kleptocrats (like putin) are still, at best, rather incompetent public stewards
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Sep 10, 2020 02:32
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dead gay comedy forums posted:even highly competent kleptocrats (like putin) are still, at best, rather incompetent public stewards Granted part of it is that the same economic thinking penetrated the Kremlin in the 1980s/1990s is still very much there. The question is if Putin realizes that it may endanger his thievery. It is a bit funny watching Batka rather wave a AK at his front gates than reverse the economic direction Belarus has been going. Ardennes has issued a correction as of 02:43 on Sep 10, 2020 |
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Sep 10, 2020 02:40
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mortons stork posted:Im not sure the Russian economy can go full command mode anymore. It would be a painful divorce from the oligarchic class which they basically fused into the ruling elite that entrenched ruling class has lasted thirty years, you think they'll beat the romanovs?
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Sep 10, 2020 06:06
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https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-54090389
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Sep 10, 2020 06:52
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Ardennes posted:The question is if Putin realizes that it may endanger his thievery imho that's what breaks them because they don't they see hoarding of resources and power as necessary for their ruling, investing in public infrastructure would be relinquishing those
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Sep 10, 2020 15:44
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Sep 10, 2020 15:45
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dead gay comedy forums posted:imho that's what breaks them because they don't I don't think it really does though if anything state ownership allows the more control and gives them a client-network to provide loyalty. Also, the Russian state does invest in infrastructure it is just usually in Moscow or big show projects like the Crimean Bridge. Honestly, I just think the finance ministry and most of the advisers just follow along with American economic thought even if it makes even less sense in a centralized state and is actively harming the regime's control over the situation. Instead, the government has been hoarding cash, fighting inflation, and pushing continued austerity just like dear Milton would want. The Kremlin at a certain point is just defeating itself. You say that the only thing that really keeps them in power is that the Western-backed opposition in Russia/Belarus is even more extreme and is determined to eradicate any semblance of economic stability where they can find it. At this point, even mild Keynesism would be a miraculous revelation.
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Sep 10, 2020 16:19
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I mean, it's not like Russia's ruling elite isn't a kleptocratic oligarchy which directly profits from those very policies and it is furthermore deeply enmeshed within the upper echelons of state power. Theres a silovik in every board of the large companies, and in exchange those companies owners enjoy security of their ill gotten property through the bandit 90s and a direct line to the Kremlin for policy influence. The Russian state may reap only pitiful dividends from its often large stakes in big business (less than 1% of the federal budget), but the people running that poo poo, many of whom occupy a blurred position between state and corporate functionary? Hoo boy. Also many of the enterprises the state has only a controlling share on, but not wholly state property? They act exactly like big corps in the west (offshoring capital, ceo comp etc) and about as transparently. E: to make my argument clearer: I think a command economy is as far from the current Russian elite's interests as it would be in the USA, which is why they stubbornly continue to pursue neoliberal hell policies instead (liquidation of state companies by another third in the next few years just came to mind). Still, I could be pleasantly surprised, if something like UBI did pass. mortons stork has issued a correction as of 16:48 on Sep 10, 2020 |
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Sep 10, 2020 16:39
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mortons stork posted:I mean, it's not like Russia's ruling elite isn't a kleptocratic oligarchy which directly profits from those very policies and it is furthermore deeply enmeshed within the upper echelons of state power. Theres a silovik in every board of the large companies, and in exchange those companies owners enjoy security of their ill gotten property through the bandit 90s and a direct line to the Kremlin for policy influence. Admittedly, the state itself hasn't really given up significant power in recent years despite some reorganization of state companies (also a major segment of the budget does directly come from oil and gas revenue). Also, by virtue of controlling the majority of the economy, the state can directly shape how society works and has pushed employment. That may change, but it hasn't so far and the issue isn't so much that the state doesn't have massive economic power or has been starved for resources it is the contrary via corruption. (I am not saying btw that there aren't state-corporate patronage networks.) I think the more pertinent issue than privatization is just spending and that the Russian state has generally spent far too little. Even if you want to say it has been to defend against sanctions, their foreign exchange reserves are at an all-time high, inflation has already been generally managed, and foreign debt is some of the lowest in the world for a country of its size. The state hasn't been starved, far from it, the state is doing absolutely great, but they have just treated the economy as an austere family budget (it isn't that much of a surprise, Russian economists are generally third rate even for neoclassical theorists). If anything, it is terrible for private Russian enterprise (if they could figure it out) because they are usually more exposed to the consumer sector (retail/supermarket chains/hospitality etc etc) which is getting absolutely slammed. If anything they should demand the state start spending moolaa like Trump did. Obviously, if the government goes for mass privatization, it is going to be bad but right now, they are just slowly suffocating themselves. (Btw how the Ukrainians have reacted has even been worse and they have been handing out agricultural land wholesale to European agribusiness since basic services have been on life support. That is the thing about Eastern Europe/former Soviet Union, it can always get worse.) Ardennes has issued a correction as of 18:45 on Sep 10, 2020 |
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Sep 10, 2020 18:41
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Ardennes posted:I don't think it really does though if anything state ownership allows the more control and gives them a client-network to provide loyalty. Also, the Russian state does invest in infrastructure it is just usually in Moscow or big show projects like the Crimean Bridge. Honestly, I just think the finance ministry and most of the advisers just follow along with American economic thought even if it makes even less sense in a centralized state and is actively harming the regime's control over the situation. I don't think you understand how corrupted decrepit and bankrupt the russian government and its ruling oligarchy is. Putin was a crony of Yeltsin. He was brought on by the six oligarch clans like a mafia boss or king to referee between themselves and corrupt bureaucrats. Putin brought with him former KGB agents to enforce this agreement. He is their servant, he didn't beat them. An audit was done recently showing that the state only owns 23% of GDP. For all intents, "state" companies are toothless. They operate under a mechanism called " Open Stock Company". The state has the right only to appoint directors who are bound to operate by the profit principle. Profits go to company directors not the state budget. Almost no equipment except the oil sector has been maintained or upgraded since the fall of the USSR The profits that do flow to the state are around 10%, similar to the flat tax all other oligarchs pay. The tax is paid almost exclusively to support oil extraction subsidies and oil extraction has become a huge parasite on the entire economy Every year since the fall of the USSR at least 1 trillion dollars has been offshored For all intents, Russia has taken on the same periphery role of exporting grain and oil as it did in the 19th century. After Putin, I expect more instability.
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Sep 11, 2020 00:19
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yeah it doesn't matter having a great deal of state control over the economy if the ruling forces don't give a gently caress about, you know, making it better for everyone else? which is why is insanely self-defeating and proper of kleptocrats: they are more cunning and brutal, but still follow a certain logic of working under capital that makes it far more stupid to carry on, and the longer it goes, the worse it gets because redistributing some wealth from the pilfered mining will make a bunch of magnates pissed off and they will retaliate in some way, and even if the state is far more powerful to deal with it than years ago, the added instability will gently caress some things up. Those guys can't accept some minimal losses, the ones inside the state apparatus can't as well, and suddenly hey how comes there is a goddamn young bolshevik movement in Russia that keeps growing and growing in popularity?
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Sep 11, 2020 02:45
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https://twitter.com/franakviacorka/status/1304048152459309058?s=20
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Sep 11, 2020 02:46
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doesn't the EU usually have to agree on that sort of thing or what
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Sep 11, 2020 02:55
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twoday posted:doesn't the EU usually have to agree on that sort of thing or what is the UK still in the EU, they seem about to get on board https://twitter.com/LinkeviciusL/status/1304087616057475072?s=20 https://twitter.com/DominicRaab/status/1304131225880268805?s=20
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Sep 11, 2020 03:03
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Top City Homo posted:I don't think you understand how corrupted decrepit and bankrupt the russian government and its ruling oligarchy is. Putin was a crony of Yeltsin. That could be true and the Russian government itself could not actually be bankrupt. It isn't just corruption and resource extraction that is the issue that if the Russian government is in fact doing well and simply refuses to spend the money they have. It is why I am skeptical the problem is a mafia-style issue of corruption but rather it is an ideological issue of the Russian government having income and resources but simply not wanting to spend them. It isn't that corruption doesn't exist but that even despite the corruption the Russian state does have significant resources (and the Rubles is generally trading with oil prices) but are simply build-up for some nebulous purpose. It is something that is also likely to never change the way things are going (if there is a liberal revolution) because Western-style corruption is just that corporations basically aren't taxed period and simply get limitless zero-interest loans rained on them from central banks: either you have shadowy state-private collusion or just out in open legalization of corruption. At the end of the day, both Putin and his "official" opposition come from fundamentally the same perspective. (I mean how much money is offshored in a single year from the US?) Also, personally, I have always been a bit skeptical of the typical narrative around corruption in Eastern Europe, that the problem with the region is endemic corruption itself and the only solution is for a new government to come up and "root it out" and yet they never do or simply privatize what's left. It is really about liberals finding any way to keep people from the resources of their country. dead gay comedy forums posted:yeah it doesn't matter having a great deal of state control over the economy if the ruling forces don't give a gently caress about, you know, making it better for everyone else? Honestly, I suspect both the government and the Western-backed opposition will agree to go after leftist movement first since it is a common threat. It isn't impossible for a move to the left, but the Russian left needs to start really getting out there at a street level and avoid more than temporary alliances with liberals who will throw them under the bus the first second they can. Ardennes has issued a correction as of 03:44 on Sep 11, 2020 |
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Sep 11, 2020 03:13
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Ardennes posted:Honestly, I suspect both the government and the Western-backed opposition will agree to go after leftist movement first since it is a common threat. It isn't impossible, but the Russian left needs to start really getting out there at a street level and avoid more than temporary alliances with liberals who will throw them under the bus the first second they can. so basically the younger generation in Lenin's country has to rediscover Leninism through experience, just loving lol
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Sep 11, 2020 03:40
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dead gay comedy forums posted:so basically the younger generation in Lenin's country has to rediscover Leninism through experience, just loving lol Lately humanity seems to be really into dooming itself to repeat its own mistakes. But yeah, everything has to be learned from nearly square one again. Ardennes has issued a correction as of 04:02 on Sep 11, 2020 |
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Sep 11, 2020 03:58
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Dunno, what this means as a whole - but as a Swede, I loving hope we'll honor the requests for asylum. https://twitter.com/Den_2042/status/1304398748450250752?s=19
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Sep 11, 2020 14:43
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dead gay comedy forums posted:so basically the younger generation in Lenin's country has to rediscover Leninism through experience, just loving lol Russian dont have a liberal delusion in their activism at least the russians i know
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Sep 11, 2020 15:19
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Lots of Central Asia used to be in the Soviet UnionJose posted:https://twitter.com/Hezbolsonaro/status/1313250767017451521?s=19 https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=fzFHMhsTdf0
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Oct 6, 2020 02:40
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guess we get to see how to undo a color revolution
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Oct 6, 2020 02:43
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Archduke Frantz Fanon posted:guess we get to see how to undo a color revolution COUNTER COLOR REVOLUTION!
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Oct 6, 2020 03:07
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Archduke Frantz Fanon posted:guess we get to see how to undo a color revolution It is more than other way around, the former president who was released came to power after Kyrgyzstan's last color revolution, and was arrested later on corruption charges and manslaughter. His party got 2% of the vote. That said, both he and the current president are pretty pro-Russian. Ardennes has issued a correction as of 03:34 on Oct 6, 2020 |
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Oct 6, 2020 03:28
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Ardennes posted:It is more than other way around, the former president who was released came to power after Kyrgyzstan last color revolution, and was arrested later on corruption charges and manslaughter. His party got 2% of the vote. oh i thought it was the guy they color revolutioned. i guess he fled. looks like the color revolution party is what is falling apart.
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Oct 6, 2020 03:36
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Archduke Frantz Fanon posted:oh i thought it was the guy they color revolutioned. i guess he fled. Yeah, there was a split in the Social Democratic Party (the post-revolution party) broke apart and now it depended on who supports the current president though. That said, unlike most color revolutions, Kyrgyzstan didn't adopt an anti-Moscow line and so far Russia has stayed out of it. Armenia did the same. Honestly, I think Putin was awaiting to make a similar deal with the Belarus opposition but they decided to go the traditional route. Ardennes has issued a correction as of 04:40 on Oct 6, 2020 |
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Oct 6, 2020 04:34
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Hey, what’s up with Transnistria? like in general a few months ago someone said it was a mob run state in relation to a chat about Moldovan wine
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Oct 6, 2020 14:30
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wolfs posted:Hey, what’s up with Transnistria? like in general They're not wrong
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Oct 6, 2020 15:45
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https://twitter.com/Reuters/status/1313481636978155520?s=20 lol https://twitter.com/Partisangirl/status/1313441687570509824?s=20
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Oct 6, 2020 15:46
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So sad that all these legitimate popular uprisings are delegitimized by people saying it's a CIA coup. smdh
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Oct 6, 2020 15:59
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spankmeister posted:They're not wrong is it a cool mob or a bad mob
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Oct 6, 2020 21:49
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https://twitter.com/zaborona_media/status/1316363833104109568 'White Lives Matter'
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Oct 15, 2020 07:25
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https://twitter.com/AJEnglish/status/1316747781151887362?s=20
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Oct 15, 2020 16:09
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i was reading about the odessa massacre in 2014 and posted about it in d&d and i do not understand the responses where they're claiming the people who were killed brought it on themselves: https://forums.somethingawful.com/showthread.php?noseen=0&threadid=3765883&pagenumber=276&perpage=40#post509086902 like i'm not going insane right?? this is actually something that happened, because i find the responses in that thread bizarre verging on fascist justifications for a pogrom. they barricaded themselves in against people trying to lynch them and fought back against a mob, so really it's their fault they were burned and beaten to death! how the hell can you 'both sides' people being burned alive by a mob. what the gently caress mila kunis has issued a correction as of 20:42 on Oct 20, 2020 |
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Oct 20, 2020 15:17
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fwiw, youre not going insane. i think quite simply the battle lines have long since been drawn
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Oct 21, 2020 18:06
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Reading the succ not just justifying but braying for "human being lefty" blood makes me actually glad the universe is furiously and demonstrably sick and tired of the mayonnaise chimpanzee's bullshit on this planet
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Oct 21, 2020 21:24
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mortons stork posted:fwiw, youre not going insane. i think quite simply the battle lines have long since been drawn Ironically enough, the Ukrainian population itself has been growing becoming less and less enamored with successive post-Madian governments. The openly pro-Russian Opposition Bloc has been pushing upward in the polls and now is almost as large as Poroshenko and Tymoshenko's parties combined. I think a lot of it just absolute fatigue with constant corruption, classism, and the war itself. In addition, much of central and eastern Ukraine was never onboard with revitalizing Bandera and wartime Ukrainian fascism. Euromadian succeeded in the first place because much of the public thought EU association would somehow be a turning point for the country, and besides Visa access, has in many ways put the Ukrainian economy in an even worse position since Ukrainian industry can't really compete with the EU. Zelensky himself was elected because he seemed like a fresh face and also was generally softer on nationalism issue, his polls have since steadily dropped only to be largely picked up by the Opposition bloc. Essentially, the Ukrainian people were conned and now they are stuck. I wouldn't expect the Opposition Bloc do be any less corruption than other Ukrainian parties, but it does seem to be that people want "the adventure" to end.
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Oct 21, 2020 21:39
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how do you put the nationalist cat back in the bag though. they're not going to allow a peaceful transition of power to that
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Oct 21, 2020 21:46
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mila kunis posted:how do you put the nationalist cat back in the bag though. they're not going to allow a peaceful transition of power to that Admittedly, Yanukovich was popularly elected and took power peacefully. Honestly, I don't know if the nationalists have enough strength left to demand what they want. Remember as well, that much of the nationalist's base is in Western Ukraine (this is where the Euromadian's more radical phase kicked off in the first place) but their strength in Eastern and Central Ukraine has wavered considerably. They make a move especially if it seems like a peace deal would lead the separatist provinces back in the country. --------------- Also, it does seem protests are still going on in Belarus on Sundays but with significantly less force than previously. The big outcome from the protest movement may simply be Putin has more leverage on Lukashenko. More than the weather or even what has been released on the opposition (turns out many of them are neoliberal right-nationalists), is that the opposition just really hasn't given any goals beyond wanting Lukashenko out which doesn't really seem to be enough on its own especially if even after months they have no real platform to speak of.
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Oct 21, 2020 23:07
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I think the no-platform issue stems from the fact that the leading political parties in the protest have monstrously unpopular policy platforms, so not giving away the game as to what they want to do once batka is out is required to keep the protests going. These are popular protests, but there is no populist politics. In fact, the most populist guy is the one ordering omon to crack skulls and torture protesters.
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Oct 22, 2020 07:16
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