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The rules are simple: - Post what you think the final electoral map will look like when the 2020 US presidential election is over. You can also bet on the Senate races as well. - When all the states/races have been called by the Associated Press, for every one that you called wrong you will donate an amount of money to RAINN. - Decide how much you want to gamble per state! As always, don’t gamble anything you can afford to lose: if you are having financial trouble right now maybe don’t participate, or set your wager to $0.25 per state or something. - When you post your map, also post what amount you are wagering. - Only post one map. All bets are final: the first map you post will be what you are in for. So if you post the Jeb! map and bet $10, be prepared to send RAINN $500. - Not all maps have to be unique. If you want to get in on the action with someone else’s map, just quote them and say something like “I agree with this,” and state your wager. - For the purposes of this contest, Main and Nebraska’s congressional districts are considered “states.” So if you bet NE2 going to Trump and it goes for Biden, you have to pay up just the same as if you bet Iowa going to Biden and it goes to Trump. - The easiest way to post your map is probably embedding one from 270towin. After you make your map, there’s a “share map” button that will open several embed options at the bottom. Choose the one on the far right and copy the image link, then add [img] tags. If you want to use some other site, MSpaint your own blank US map, or hand draw all 50 states, go nuts. - Discussion of maps is also fine! This thread will follow the same rules as the Poliwonks thread: quote:What you shouldn't post about : - Deadline for submissions is the close of the first polls at 6:00 pm Eastern Standard Time, so if people want to try and game things via exit polls and turnout reports they can (can try, at least). - In the event a state is not called for a while (aka Florida again) you can donate what has been called or wait and do it all together. - Contest rules are open to change if people have better ideas about something.
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Nov 1, 2020 17:39
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| # ? Apr 27, 2024 18:19 |
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I’ll get things going with my map. I am betting $20 per state: I call this the “conservative, closer than polls suggest” map. I waffled back and forth on Georgia, Iowa, and Florida, but in the end decided I’d rather be sending money because of a pleasant surprise than anything else.
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Nov 1, 2020 17:39
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Betting five dollars per state. LOL I think this is the same as Moon Slayer whoops
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Nov 1, 2020 17:44
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Tater Love 
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Here's my POTUS map: Here's my Senate map:  Doing both at $5 per missed state. Edit: No gangtag, please. I like my current ones just fine. 
B B fucked around with this message at 00:19 on Nov 4, 2020 |
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Nov 1, 2020 17:48
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I'm betting $15 per wrong state. President: Senate: I call these maps the "Ohio and Iowa suck rear end but it's a landslide for Biden" combo.
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Nov 1, 2020 17:53
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zakharov posted:LOL I think this is the same as Moon Slayer whoops It's a good map. Not the best map by far, but still ... e: Acebuckeye13 posted:The map thread should also give you a gang tag depending on how you do: Moon Slayer fucked around with this message at 17:59 on Nov 1, 2020 |
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Nov 1, 2020 17:54
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I'll bet 5 bucks per state
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Nov 1, 2020 18:11
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Fully prepared to look like an idiot when TRUMP happens again, but ah well nevertheless ($10):
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Nov 1, 2020 18:11
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$10 per state. There is systemic polling error, but it's Biden who is being underestimated.
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Nov 1, 2020 18:37
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Blue South Carolina? Interesting.
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Nov 1, 2020 18:47
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Looking for that Biden blowout. 10€ per state. 
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Nov 1, 2020 19:06
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Man I thought I was posting the most optimistic map but here you come with blue MT and MO. Edit: And AK! That map has to be the high water mark for even remotely plausible.
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Nov 1, 2020 20:18
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Sure would be nice, though.
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Nov 1, 2020 20:20
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I am not much of a gambler, so $5 a state. The fix is in in PA. Between the naked ballots, counties not counting mail ballots until the 4th (hoping the SC would toss anything not counted on the 3rd), and I'm guessing lots of election day fuckery, I don't see it.
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Nov 1, 2020 20:32
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Hellblazer187 posted:Man I thought I was posting the most optimistic map but here you come with blue MT and MO. I wanted to stake out an optimistic map, instead of all the doom and gloom 2016 stuff. If I'm right - woohoo! If I'm wrong: Donations for a good cause! Win-win.
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Nov 1, 2020 21:01
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I'm trying for Ok Comboomer's 'Nate Radium' challenge, 1$ per state. An intentionally wrong guess is still wrong so if I ace the challenge I will be donating $50 (If actually trying for Nate Radium violates the fun of that challenge I can post a different map)
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Nov 1, 2020 21:10
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i'll go in at $10 per state kind of feel iowa is a coin flip and last couple of polls out of the state haven't looked great, but david wasserman keeps mentioning ominous private polling at the district level, so i'll roll with it. texas is definitely a major reach that's been fooling folks for a decade, but the historical turn out we're seeing at least allows for the potential of a purple texas. my ohio call is probably wrong, but i'm calling it for democrats because it makes a prettier map. georgia i'm more confident on, the general sense i'm getting is that the extra blatant suppression in 2018 is really motivating turn out and i feel like kemp and his cronies haven't been able to effectively counter it this year. pennsylvania has such a consistent polling lead for biden i don't think there's a fix or polling error large enough to keep it red. i actually feel real confident on florida and arizona, seniors flipping from trump to biden in 15 to 20 point swings just completely eviscerates one of the key republican voting blocks, and i don't see how they can possibly recover from that in our retirement home states. probably out over my skis with this map, but i like the aesthetics of having every blue state either touching or with line of site to another blue state over open water. one day we'll have the heartland completely surrounded GhostofJohnMuir fucked around with this message at 21:21 on Nov 1, 2020 |
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Nov 1, 2020 21:17
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The Chad Jihad posted:(If actually trying for Nate Radium violates the fun of that challenge I can post a different map) Nope! You're an achievement hunter and I respect that.
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Nov 1, 2020 21:17
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I will stake $5 per state, as well as something far more precious: my honor as a poster.  As you can see I have a somewhat optimistic but not wholly delusional take.
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Nov 1, 2020 21:47
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Mine's actually pretty much the same as Nessus', and I'll put down $5 per state as well. May Fivey Fox have mercy on our souls.
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Nov 1, 2020 21:51
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Hewlett posted:Mine's actually pretty much the same as Nessus', and I'll put down $5 per state as well. May Fivey Fox have mercy on our souls.
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Nov 1, 2020 22:18
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$7 per state. This is pure gut, no brain. EDIT: my gut changed its mind once and only once Gravybong fucked around with this message at 01:40 on Nov 2, 2020 |
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Nov 2, 2020 01:20
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Sure, I'm in for 5 bucks per wrong state.
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Nov 2, 2020 01:21
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Here is my map: I am betting €0.69 per state. If I calculated correctly, that means I can only lose a maximum of 0.69 * 55 = €37.95 if it's somehow the exact opposite of this. I will not flake out on purpose, but if I forget about this thread for whatever reason, mods are free to send me a reminder via PM.
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Nov 2, 2020 01:22
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I am a very pessimistic person. I am hoping to donate a lot. ($5 per state wrong)
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Nov 2, 2020 02:00
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TL posted:Sure, I'm in for 5 bucks per wrong state. dc not reporting any results is a bold prediction, but in keeping with the spirit of 2020 will probably be the actual outcome
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Nov 2, 2020 02:00
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GhostofJohnMuir posted:dc not reporting any results is a bold prediction, but in keeping with the spirit of 2020 will probably be the actual outcome Aw poo poo I missed it. Well, at least RAINN is guaranteed 5 bux from me.
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Nov 2, 2020 02:22
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I am also wagering my posting honor, but as that's extremely small stakes, I'll also bet $1 per electoral vote difference between this and the actual results.
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Nov 2, 2020 02:38
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 $1 per state
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Nov 2, 2020 02:45
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I'll chip in for $10 per state. Are we required to go to RAINN or can we donate to any charity we want? Not that it matters much, just wondering. This is my optimistic, but still not believing in Texas map.
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Nov 2, 2020 02:52
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Wager: $2.50 per state for both RAINN and The Trevor Project (i.e. each state is a 2.50 donation to RAINN and a 2.50 donation to The Trevor Project).
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Nov 2, 2020 03:06
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Bird in a Blender posted:Are we required to go to RAINN or can we donate to any charity we want? Not that it matters much, just wondering. I guess if you've got a particular charity in mind that's fine.
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Nov 2, 2020 04:05
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Moon Slayer posted:I guess if you've got a particular charity in mind that's fine. Ahh cool, if I can donate to a local charity that actually makes things a lot easier. e: not that I'll be wrong about anything, of course
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Nov 2, 2020 04:11
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I think the Trump magic has worn off, especially after his piss poor handling of Corona. I think Biden has it in the bag, with the exception of the Midwest. As a Texan, I really want Texas to flip. $1 per wrong state. 
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Nov 2, 2020 22:56
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I'll do $10 per miss
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Nov 2, 2020 23:07
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 lol sorry misread the OP, 2 bux for each state I get wrong.
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Nov 2, 2020 23:09
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Red Wisconsin but blue NE2 is also an ... interesting choice.
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Nov 2, 2020 23:13
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 $2/state.
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Nov 2, 2020 23:41
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Moon Slayer posted:Red Wisconsin but blue NE2 is also an ... interesting choice. Hey I've got these singles and nothing to lose bud E: Tried to make Nebraska's District 2 vote for Biden
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Nov 3, 2020 00:08
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| # ? Apr 27, 2024 18:19 |
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Zamujasa posted:
Jeb! loves charity.
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Nov 3, 2020 00:13
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