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DutchDupe posted:I lie about lying to pollsters in twitter threads. I'm a huge galaxy brain winning the election for TRUMP. In no way does lying about this help Trump at all. It can only help Biden. These are stupid people! Very fine stupid people
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Nov 1, 2020 16:56
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Oh if its own thread you don't need to PM me - I'll just keep an eye on it then. If you don't donate I will probe you tho, so.
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Nov 1, 2020 16:56
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Cool https://twitter.com/MorningConsult/status/1322930029043605504
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Nov 1, 2020 16:57
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Bread Set Jettison posted:Polliwonks: Iowa Man just unverified Florida Man Florida Man Florida Man Florida Man eats Iowa Man
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Nov 1, 2020 16:58
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Seven Hundred Bee posted:Oh if its own thread you don't need to PM me - I'll just keep an eye on it then. Is there any point in throwing extra money down on Senate races? 270 to win lets you make maps for that too. Also, will Maine and Nebraska EVs work independently for this purpose?
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Nov 1, 2020 16:58
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Also yes I do see my math error. 50 x 10 is not 5,000. e: yeah I guess NE and ME will count as separate "states," so if you bet on NE2 going to Trump and it goes for Biden you have to pay up.
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Nov 1, 2020 16:58
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vyelkin posted:Wait, does Nate Silver not pay to get past pollsters' paywalls? FiveThirtyEight spent their budget on Fivey Fox this year
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Nov 1, 2020 16:59
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DutchDupe posted:Is there any point in throwing extra money down on Senate races? 270 to win lets you make maps for that too. Sure. Bet on whatever you want. And yes Maine/Nebraska EVs are seperate predictions on the 270 to win map. More money for charity is good!
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Nov 1, 2020 17:03
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It's glaringly obvious that this is the Trump campaign's last ditch strategy if it all comes down to pa, but it's really really bad that the press can't push back on these ridiculous claims. https://twitter.com/therecount/status/1322926474882621441
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Nov 1, 2020 17:08
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Ok Comboomer posted:Florida Man Florida Man Florida Man. Florida Man meets Iowa Man. They have a fight, Nobody wins. Florida Man.
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Nov 1, 2020 17:08
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VitalSigns posted:Shy Trump voter effect is real I had an argument with a good friend about this -- he's still not talking to me. My point was just: Do some people lie to pollsters? Sure. Do a statistically significant number, spread evenly across all polled states, who are lying perfectly in line with state and national trends, to multiple pollsters? Come on. No.
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Nov 1, 2020 17:10
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The map thread should also give you a gang tag depending on how you do: All correct: Nate Platinum 1 miss: Nate Gold 2 missed: Nate Silver 3 missed: Nate Bronze 4 or more missed: Nate Plastic
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Nov 1, 2020 17:11
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Updated rules:quote:The rules are simple:
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Nov 1, 2020 17:12
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Is there any new polling on who people expect to win?
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Nov 1, 2020 17:15
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Shimrra Jamaane posted:How does that happen. Presumably the person the poll calls tells them a tall tale, and then the newspaper fails to do any verification on it?
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Nov 1, 2020 17:16
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posting any map that isn't a comedy map gives me delirium tremens
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Nov 1, 2020 17:16
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Acebuckeye13 posted:The map thread should also give you a gang tag depending on how you do: Nate Radium: you get every single state wrong, which is arguably harder to do than scoring a Nate Plastic
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Nov 1, 2020 17:17
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VitalSigns posted:Shy Trump voter effect is real Lol oh yes, this canard again. Whatever Scott needs to sleep at night, his reputation is poo poo since the Obama years when he decided to out himself as a racist chud. Get hosed Scott.
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Nov 1, 2020 17:18
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eke out posted:lol remember that iowa poll last night where trump won every age demographic except 65+ I guess they don't like his proposals that involve them dying in massive numbers from a contagious but preventable disease
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Nov 1, 2020 17:22
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Phlegmish posted:I guess they don't like his proposals that involve them dying in massive numbers from a contagious but preventable disease Pick, June 16th posted:We are getting some really good campaign insights though. Looks like campaigning on mass death, piles of corpses in the streets, costs you probably around five points? Big misstep in my opinion.
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Nov 1, 2020 17:27
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Rea posted:Seven paragraphs for a poll respondent who may or may not exist. What the gently caress happened with this Selzer poll? It heard yelling over a phone 
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Nov 1, 2020 17:31
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Phlegmish posted:I guess they don't like his proposals that involve them dying in massive numbers from a contagious but preventable disease Well, yes, but also that poll appears to be bad
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Nov 1, 2020 17:32
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It's been 12 hours and Nate hasn't even tweeted about his SNL appearance I'm beginning to think he's really busy
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Nov 1, 2020 17:34
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exquisite tea posted:Both campaigns have sort of written off Ohio, but I guess it's still completely possible that Biden could win it. It seems that in the Rust Belt, Ohio and Indiana are remaining more or less loyal to Trump. Pretty big U-turn in Michigan and Wisconsin, though. I wonder what the reason is for that difference, other than the fact that Trump had tiny margins in the latter two states to begin with.
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Nov 1, 2020 17:34
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TulliusCicero posted:Based on more data (and personal experience with my older cousins) it seems Gen X men have taken their rightful place as garbage tier 
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Nov 1, 2020 17:36
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https://twitter.com/Redistrict/status/1322921441122279425?s=20
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Nov 1, 2020 17:36
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Hell yeah, looking forward to our second Civil War being guys vs girls.
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Nov 1, 2020 17:37
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Phlegmish posted:I guess they don't like his proposals that involve them dying in massive numbers from a contagious but preventable disease to be clear, my point was not to dismiss them, it was to dismiss the one non-trafalgar poll showing that trump is winning young people outright actually i'd have to double check trafalgar, even they may not be that bad
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Nov 1, 2020 17:38
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Nov 1, 2020 17:39
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Nov 1, 2020 17:41
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https://twitter.com/RalstonReports/status/1322940513385816064
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Nov 1, 2020 17:41
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Map contest is up!
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Nov 1, 2020 17:41
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Does "firewall" refer to the estimated Dem lead in votes after early/mail voting?
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Nov 1, 2020 17:43
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Zwabu posted:Does "firewall" refer to the estimated Dem lead in votes after early/mail voting? Yes. Ralston's know among polling nerds for being the only dude who can actually make accurate guesses from early vote results.
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Nov 1, 2020 17:44
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You know what I regret now? Not having the idea sooner of a parody twitter for this fox about how he is a god of despair and agony.
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Nov 1, 2020 17:44
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nah posted:In no way does lying about this help Trump at all. It can only help Biden. These are stupid people! Very fine stupid people Yeah I don't get it either, that just dampens enthusiasm for your candidate. The shy voter effect is real, even if it usually doesn't reflect well on the ideology of the party that those people prefer to remain silent about, but it's not responsible for these significant and consistent margins we're seeing for Biden.
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Nov 1, 2020 17:45
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https://twitter.com/stella2020woof/status/1322940096228872192 lmao even Hannity's poll is less favorable to Trump than Selzer's Zwabu posted:Does "firewall" refer to the estimated Dem lead in votes after early/mail voting? Correct.
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Nov 1, 2020 17:46
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AKA Pseudonym posted:Old data but GenX is complicated. The Millennial split here between all adults and RVs is really interesting. The Bush-Obama-Trump years happening as this generation formed its political identity cemented Democrats as the party for serious, nerdy people who have the privilege of knowing how to navigate bureaucracy and do things like always check that their voter registration is up to date and vote in every election. This is an ideological realignment that's at least as big as the Southern Strategy and Republicans going from the party of Lincoln to the party of the Klan.
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Nov 1, 2020 17:48
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Two different FYGM's collided, and 'their own (literal) lives' seems to be winning out if barely, luckily for the rest of us
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Nov 1, 2020 17:50
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Zwabu posted:Does "firewall" refer to the estimated Dem lead in votes after early/mail voting? Specifically he's referring to the Dem turnout advantage in Clark county, which is the largest county in Nevada and contains over half the population or something silly. His theory is, and he seems to always be right, that there's a point where if the Dems bank enough votes there early its basically impossible for republicans to catch up
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Nov 1, 2020 17:52
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