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Moon Slayer
Jun 19, 2007

The rules are simple:

- Post what you think the final electoral map will look like when the 2020 US presidential election is over. You can also bet on the Senate races as well.

- When all the states/races have been called by the Associated Press, for every one that you called wrong you will donate an amount of money to RAINN.

- Decide how much you want to gamble per state! As always, don’t gamble anything you can afford to lose: if you are having financial trouble right now maybe don’t participate, or set your wager to $0.25 per state or something.

- When you post your map, also post what amount you are wagering.

- Only post one map. All bets are final: the first map you post will be what you are in for. So if you post the Jeb! map and bet $10, be prepared to send RAINN $500.

- Not all maps have to be unique. If you want to get in on the action with someone else’s map, just quote them and say something like “I agree with this,” and state your wager.

- For the purposes of this contest, Main and Nebraska’s congressional districts are considered “states.” So if you bet NE2 going to Trump and it goes for Biden, you have to pay up just the same as if you bet Iowa going to Biden and it goes to Trump.

- The easiest way to post your map is probably embedding one from 270towin. After you make your map, there’s a “share map” button that will open several embed options at the bottom. Choose the one on the far right and copy the image link, then add [img] tags. If you want to use some other site, MSpaint your own blank US map, or hand draw all 50 states, go nuts.

- Discussion of maps is also fine! This thread will follow the same rules as the Poliwonks thread:

quote:

What you shouldn't post about :

* Your personal voting choice or how you think others should vote
* The value and ethics of voting for a particular candidate, not voting, or voting third party
* Relitigating the 2020 primary or the 2016 election
* Ideological differences between wings of the Democratic party or political theory in general
* Your opinion of the candidates independent of their 2020 race - this is not a referendum on them as individuals

- Deadline for submissions is the close of the first polls at 6:00 pm Eastern Standard Time, so if people want to try and game things via exit polls and turnout reports they can (can try, at least).

- In the event a state is not called for a while (aka Florida again) you can donate what has been called or wait and do it all together.

- Contest rules are open to change if people have better ideas about something.

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Moon Slayer
Jun 19, 2007

I’ll get things going with my map. I am betting $20 per state:



I call this the “conservative, closer than polls suggest” map. I waffled back and forth on Georgia, Iowa, and Florida, but in the end decided I’d rather be sending money because of a pleasant surprise than anything else.

Moon Slayer
Jun 19, 2007

zakharov posted:

LOL I think this is the same as Moon Slayer whoops

It's a good map. Not the best map by far, but still ...

e:

Acebuckeye13 posted:

The map thread should also give you a gang tag depending on how you do:

All correct: Nate Platinum
1 miss: Nate Gold
2 missed: Nate Silver
3 missed: Nate Bronze
4 or more missed: Nate Plastic

Moon Slayer fucked around with this message at 17:59 on Nov 1, 2020

Moon Slayer
Jun 19, 2007

Blue South Carolina? Interesting.

Moon Slayer
Jun 19, 2007

Sure would be nice, though.

Moon Slayer
Jun 19, 2007

The Chad Jihad posted:

(If actually trying for Nate Radium violates the fun of that challenge I can post a different map)

Nope! You're an achievement hunter and I respect that.

Moon Slayer
Jun 19, 2007

Bird in a Blender posted:

Are we required to go to RAINN or can we donate to any charity we want? Not that it matters much, just wondering.

I guess if you've got a particular charity in mind that's fine.

Moon Slayer
Jun 19, 2007

Red Wisconsin but blue NE2 is also an ... interesting choice.

Moon Slayer
Jun 19, 2007

I think you mean the yellow Jeb! tsunami.

Moon Slayer
Jun 19, 2007

I'm loving some of these swing state combos. Red Georgia but blue Texas? You absolute madman.

Moon Slayer
Jun 19, 2007

Hell yes, inject those shaky needles straight into my arm. When you get them uploaded, that is.

Moon Slayer
Jun 19, 2007

Correct.

Moon Slayer
Jun 19, 2007

BrianBoitano posted:

When is too late for a gangtag entry? If it's soon I'll just steal someone else's but I'd prefer to make one after work.

In any case, I'm in for a minimum of $20 total. I'll do some amount per state once I do me map!

Originally I said submissions have to be in by the time the first polls close, which is 6:00 pm EST, but that's just parts of Indiana and Kentucky so if you get something in by 7:00 EST I think that's probably more than fine.

Moon Slayer
Jun 19, 2007

I'm going as news-dark as I can to manage my anxiety. I'll keep an eye on my bookmarks and when I see a bunch of new posts here I'll take that to mean that the results are finally in and people are posting donation receipts.

Be well, goons. :)

Moon Slayer
Jun 19, 2007

Raenir Salazar posted:

Does it have to be RAINN or can I also do like, the Canadian Red Cross?

e: I'm Canadian and I'm not sure if I'm able to donate to RAINN.

Any worthy charity is fine. I didn't take this into consideration when I thought this thing up.

Moon Slayer
Jun 19, 2007

Moon Slayer posted:

I’ll get things going with my map. I am betting $20 per state:





This is assuming that Georgia and Arizona are called for Biden and North Carolina is called for Trump, which is what most experts expect. And then I rounded up to 50.

Thank you, all, for participating in this! By my quick, probably-off calculation this thread has donated around $1,900 to worthy causes, including RAINN, The Trevor Project, and the Canadian Red Cross, with more to come.

e: oh crap almost forgot, I'll take the one with the moving needles, please!

Moon Slayer fucked around with this message at 03:59 on Nov 8, 2020

Moon Slayer
Jun 19, 2007

goethe.cx posted:

(blue georgia???)

Slightly blue North Carolina, slightly red Georgia was a call a lot of people, including me, made. It made sense since NC went for Obama in 2008 and Georgia last went for a Democrat in 1992.

I mean, look at this final map, it's absolutely wild:



And, as long as I was screwing around on 270towin, here's my advance prediction for 2024:




Harris/Cuomo (D): 435
Pence/Hogan (R): 68
Trump/Cruz (Ind.): 35

(not an actual prediction or toxx, I was just bored)

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Moon Slayer
Jun 19, 2007

I don't have time right now to scroll back through but did anyone pull off the Nate Radium challenge (all states/districts wrong)?

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