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What even was appealing about Arizona to John McCain anyway? Was it just a place with a soft enough field that he could become a senator without a lot of resistance? Because that's the only reason Liz Cheney even came back to Wyoming.
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Nov 3, 2020 03:55
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I hope the Trump-holes actually let people vote instead of "poll watching". I hope it's not close and it's clear Biden wins by tomorrow. I hope it's a smooth and easy election day. I'm full of hope, but also poo poo, and the poo poo has more substance...
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Nov 3, 2020 03:56
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For a dissenting opinion... "serious data analyst" gummi is going with this. https://twitter.com/gummibear737/status/1323395067692912640 These twitter accounts are going to be a fun visit in a few days.
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Nov 3, 2020 03:56
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Gripweed posted:Yeah they said that there's way too much confusion and too many factors for a single national needle. But those three are good bellweathers, Trump probably needs all of them to win. For any rational scenarios, he absolutely does.
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Nov 3, 2020 03:57
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https://twitter.com/Redistrict/status/1323451590527823872?s=20 That seems insane to me. Even 2008 had nowhere near those numbers. Zore posted:There are 3 needles for NC, GA and FL The 3 states with the closest races. Should be fun.
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Nov 3, 2020 03:57
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Vorik posted:There won't be a needle this year? NYT's needle was hilarious in 2016 For all his failures Bernie Sanders killed the needle, and for that I am grateful
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Nov 3, 2020 03:58
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LegendaryFrog posted:For a dissenting opinion... "serious data analyst" gummi is going with this. No way are Minnesota, Wisconsin, and Michigan going Trump.
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Nov 3, 2020 03:59
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Phlegmish posted:No way are Minnesota, Wisconsin, and Michigan going Trump. You are correct, but this is the only account I could find by a Trumper that promised anything less than red New York.
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Nov 3, 2020 04:01
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Timeless Appeal posted:
That's the map I went with in the post your map contest.
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Nov 3, 2020 04:01
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TyrantWD posted:That's the map I went with in the post your map contest. Which is over here if you want to make your map official: https://forums.somethingawful.com/showthread.php?threadid=3946258 Not much time left now!
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Nov 3, 2020 04:03
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For context, this is the map I think you'd get if you applied the infamous Republican methodology that was floating around Twitter yesterday of "take the numbers and add +10-15% to them because that's just what I want to do." It's mostly amazing how high the margins are in so many red states that I think it absolutely cannot breech some of these firewalls even in an insane Reagan-style blowout.
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Nov 3, 2020 04:05
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Jaster posted:For context, this is the map I think you'd get if you applied the infamous Republican methodology that was floating around Twitter yesterday of "take the numbers and add +10-15% to them because that's just what I want to do." This post isn't a complete reflection without the asterisk note: "I've been seeing some positive signs in Kentucky of a Biden win, but I'm not quite ready to call it yet."
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Nov 3, 2020 04:07
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Vorik posted:https://twitter.com/Redistrict/status/1323451590527823872?s=20 160 million would result in the highest voter turnout rate in a presidential election since 1960.
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Nov 3, 2020 04:12
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DaveWoo posted:160 million would result in the highest voter turnout rate in a presidential election since 1960. What happened in 1960 that got everybody so heated?
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Nov 3, 2020 04:14
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I hope Biden wins this, and I hope he wins it in such convincing fashion that I can enjoy the evening without massive anxiety.
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Nov 3, 2020 04:15
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Vorik posted:https://twitter.com/Redistrict/status/1323451590527823872?s=20 2008 had 131 million voters from a population of 304 million people (43% of total population). This year could have 160 million from a population of 331 million people (48% of total population). Or more! It's a wild increase. For comparison, 2016 had 137 million voters from a population of 323 million (42% of total population).
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Nov 3, 2020 04:15
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Gripweed posted:What happened in 1960 that got everybody so heated? Everybody was horny for JFK.
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Nov 3, 2020 04:15
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vyelkin posted:Everybody was horny for JFK. This time around everyone's horny for BIDEN The people just want Catholic presidents
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Nov 3, 2020 04:18
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Gripweed posted:What happened in 1960 that got everybody so heated? Probably the debates. TV was a new political tool that drove lots of participation. It was also very close.
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Nov 3, 2020 04:18
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The next two days are going to be a special hell for me as a social studies teacher. I really am not sure what I should do. Do a normal lesson tomorrow and put on some news or clips the day after? Try to teach a normal lesson both days and just keep an eye on my news feed in case something major happens? Maybe just give the kids an open floor to ask questions and share their opinions? I just feel kind of anxious about how to handle this moment, especially since I'm in Chudland. I took Thursday off (we're on a 4 day schedule) since I couldn't take the day after, and boy do I think I'm going to need it.
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Nov 3, 2020 04:19
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vyelkin posted:2008 had 131 million voters from a population of 304 million people (43% of total population). Yea it’s not happening
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Nov 3, 2020 04:20
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Deteriorata posted:Probably the debates. TV was a new political tool that drove lots of participation. It was also very close. Also tbh turnout was just generally higher back then. 63.3% in 1952, 60.6% in 1956, 62.8% in 1960, 61.9% in 1964, 60.9% in 1968. Then it dropped to 55.2% in 1972 and has never fully recovered. Until now. Maybe.
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Nov 3, 2020 04:21
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AAAAAAAAAAHHHH *checks polling, relaxes* but AAAAAAAAAAHHHH
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Nov 3, 2020 04:22
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Sanguinia posted:The next two days are going to be a special hell for me as a social studies teacher. I really am not sure what I should do. Do a normal lesson tomorrow and put on some news or clips the day after? Try to teach a normal lesson both days and just keep an eye on my news feed in case something major happens? Maybe just give the kids an open floor to ask questions and share their opinions? I just feel kind of anxious about how to handle this moment, especially since I'm in Chudland. I feel like just talking it through, trying to have a conversation (not a debate!) about processes and the mechanics of the election could be good? I have zero teaching experience and I imagine it greatly depends on the ages and maturity of the kids.
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Nov 3, 2020 04:23
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okay then
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Nov 3, 2020 04:23
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my hot take: final votes will be high 130s/low 140s. turnout will be a dud tomorrow.
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Nov 3, 2020 04:23
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Gripweed posted:What happened in 1960 that got everybody so heated?
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Nov 3, 2020 04:24
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trying to imagine where my mental state might be this time tomorrow
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Nov 3, 2020 04:26
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Seven Hundred Bee posted:my hot take: final votes will be high 130s/low 140s. turnout will be a dud tomorrow. That might work if the early vote is as heavily skewed towards Biden as polls suggest.
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Nov 3, 2020 04:26
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How are u posted:I feel like just talking it through, trying to have a conversation (not a debate!) about processes and the mechanics of the election could be good? I have zero teaching experience and I imagine it greatly depends on the ages and maturity of the kids. Well, I spent the last two days explaining the Electoral College and the PoliSci factors for choosing which candidate you're going to vote for.
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Nov 3, 2020 04:26
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FBS posted:trying to imagine where my mental state might be this time tomorrow All signs point to "uncomfortable"
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Nov 3, 2020 04:27
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TyrantWD posted:That might work if the early vote is as heavily skewed towards Biden as polls suggest. correct we have evidence that there is an enthusiasm gap between parties: registered republicans are returning their ballots later and at a much lower rater also trumps fundraising is garbage right now, compared to 2016 when he beat clinton in the last 30 days
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Nov 3, 2020 04:27
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Seven Hundred Bee posted:my hot take: final votes will be high 130s/low 140s. turnout will be a dud tomorrow. That would be the best case at least in regards to the day being one big Covid-19 super spreader. (Which it of course probably will be anyway)  Also it would mean Republicans didn't show up, so it might be even better than a 160+ record smasher where both sides are just insanely hyped up. The early vote has been massive and crushing Democratic, at least from a party registration viewpoint. Seven Hundred Bee posted:we have evidence that there is an enthusiasm gap between parties: But what about the crowds! Didn't you see?? All the cars??? They had flags!!
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Nov 3, 2020 04:28
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Ah stupid image bullshit.
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Nov 3, 2020 04:28
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Seven Hundred Bee posted:my hot take: final votes will be high 130s/low 140s. turnout will be a dud tomorrow. Lotta people worried their vote wont count if its not in person this year and a lot of people think "in person" means only on election day. Most people are very for the death cult or very against it. I think overall turnout gona be high.
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Nov 3, 2020 04:29
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Tom Friedman's brainworms are terminal at this point. https://twitter.com/Nick_L_Miller/status/1323455284841467906
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Nov 3, 2020 04:31
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Seven Hundred Bee posted:correct So low turnout tomorrow will probably help Biden, this make sense to me. However, crazy high turnout helps his math for flipping Texas, which would doom Trump. So, same result but different map either way?
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Nov 3, 2020 04:31
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Antillie posted:So low turnout tomorrow will probably help Biden, this make sense to me. no, low turnout dooms trump.
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Nov 3, 2020 04:32
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Handsome Ralph posted:Tom Friedman's brainworms are terminal at this point. This is deranged.
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Nov 3, 2020 04:34
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| # ? May 3, 2024 10:44 |
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let me put it this way: 100 million people have voted already and estimates of the aggregate distribution range from 70/30 biden/trump to 60/40 at worse. trump needs huge turnout solely amongst his voters.
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Nov 3, 2020 04:34
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