Political Polls and Party Strategy 2021: Political Polling Somehow Still a Thing

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Gucci Loafers: May 20, 2006; Ask yourself, do you really want to talk to pair of really nice gaudy shoes?

Discendo Vox posted:

Pot isn't some plucky underdog leftist issue. It's got a multibillion VC lobby and investment from groups all over ag and wall street, and has for decades now. A number of red ag states are practically slavering over it; McConnell just doesn't have any cover for passage, and the specific bill isn't designed to pass.

For those not familiar with the concept of a "messaging bill":

Taken from this otherwise very suspect site that I'd not rely on without a bunch of further research for anything but the quoted material.
https://www.legbranch.org/honest-messengers-how-symbolic-messaging-votes-in-congress-match-vote-choices-on-real-votes/

How is this bill not designed to pass specifically?

# ¿ Dec 5, 2020 01:27

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# ¿ May 18, 2024 07:39

Gucci Loafers: May 20, 2006; Ask yourself, do you really want to talk to pair of really nice gaudy shoes?

dwarf74 posted:

Nobody expects McConnell to bring it to the floor. It is however a great thing to point at and say "hmmm wish we had the senate right about now..."

Right and that's makes sense.

But are we saying this bill is solely being brought up to pressure Republicans then Democrats go back to their waffling on the issue and punt it back to the States?

# ¿ Dec 5, 2020 01:46

Gucci Loafers: May 20, 2006; Ask yourself, do you really want to talk to pair of really nice gaudy shoes?

That's relieving.

# ¿ Dec 5, 2020 02:38

Gucci Loafers: May 20, 2006; Ask yourself, do you really want to talk to pair of really nice gaudy shoes?

Discendo Vox posted:

A common (but not exclusive) purpose of messaging bills (especially the small ones, which this one isn't) is really in the lobbying entities that get the bills on the floor. The lobbying groups then point to the bill when meeting their clientbase and say "look at how hard we're fighting, keep paying us". Politicians signing off on them also get to convey that to donors. Donors and the industry that fund lobbyists and trade groups are, in many circumstances, and especially with VC-funded insurgent industries, genuinely ignorant enough of the political process to think the bill matters. (this is also one of the issues with industry and pressure groups writing bills and the ongoing brain drain in government- laws are increasingly badly drafted as both bureaucratic and congressional resources and institutional knowledge are lost.)

This is super interesting and thank for the reply.

This is kind of mini-rant but I strongly dislike like how the primary avenue of legalization revolves around tax income. Yes, it's true that governments are broke but the primary reason for legalization should be that using marijuana is... enjoyable? There's absolutely nothing inherently wrong this and humanity has been purposely manipulating it's own consciousness for hundreds of years. Are we going to just have this endless deadly violent cat and mouse game forever? If Hannah Montana is singing about using drugs... then you lost the drug war.

When prohibition ended, FDR said "What America Needs Now is a Drink.". If only there someone who'd double down and say "What American needs now is a joint.".

# ¿ Dec 5, 2020 21:04

Gucci Loafers: May 20, 2006; Ask yourself, do you really want to talk to pair of really nice gaudy shoes?

Vincent Van Goatse posted:

I mean, things just being enjoyable isn't a prima facie reason for them to be legal (or illegal). This is partially because lots of very actually harmful things can be enjoyable to someone, but mostly because enjoyability is a fundamentally subjective quality, which is usually one helluva bad basis for drawing up a law.

Marijuana should be decriminalized or legalized or whatever because it's not only enjoyable to a significant number of people but is also essentially not terribly dangerous in and of itself (because you can absolutely be a danger to others while high if you're, say, a commercial pilot flying a passenger plane or a surgeon performing major surgery, or just driving a car).

Good points. I just can't stand how we're saying that we should legalize weed because our governments are broke.

# ¿ Dec 5, 2020 22:00

Gucci Loafers: May 20, 2006; Ask yourself, do you really want to talk to pair of really nice gaudy shoes?

BiggerBoat posted:

TL/DR: Advertising is destroying honest news and, by extension, our culture and the information we absorb.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=tHEOGrkhDp0

# ¿ Dec 6, 2020 00:22

Gucci Loafers: May 20, 2006; Ask yourself, do you really want to talk to pair of really nice gaudy shoes?

Does anyone have historical Hispanic voter history data? What I want to know is what does this look like from the 1960 onwards? Is this just noise or the start of a trend?

Google is failing me.

# ¿ Dec 7, 2020 18:16

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vyelkin posted:

2020 (13%): 65/32 Biden
2016 (11%): 65/29 Clinton
2012 (10%): 71/27 Obama
2008 (9%): 67/31 Obama
2004 (8%): 54/44 Kerry
2000 (7%): 62/35 Gore
1996 (5%): 72/21/6 Clinton
1992 (5%): 61/25/14 Clinton
1988 (3%): 70/30 Dukakis
1984 (3%): 66/34 Mondale
1980 (2%): 56/37 Carter
1976 (2%): 75/24 Carter

As Pick said, the closest a modern Republican has come to winning the Hispanic vote overall was Bush in 2004. There are many more Hispanic Trump voters this year because it's the highest turnout election since 1900 and Hispanic voters increased their voter share by 2% from last time, but the overall vote pattern doesn't look that different from historical norms. But, as has also been pointed out, Hispanic voters are not monolithic and so the distribution of who votes how and where is just as important as looking at national trends.

Good point and Democrats should appeal to Cuban voters especially given that Florida is a swing state. I wonder why they're failing to do that? What benefits do they get from the Republican Party?

# ¿ Dec 7, 2020 23:37

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Aruan posted:

The issues that appeal to Cuban voters also alienate the rest of the party.

Right, that part I get but what are those issues specifically?

# ¿ Dec 8, 2020 00:06

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sexpig by night posted:

screaming about Castro mainly

like that genuinely is just it, hardline anti-cuba stances are entirely for cuban expat votes and literally nobody else.

Ah hah, One Issue Voters.

# ¿ Dec 8, 2020 00:49

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NaanViolence posted:

Everyone blames it on all the spam, but a huge part of this phenomenon is caused by entire generations being too socially inept and anxious to have an actual phone conversation, and normalizing that is hilarious. Texting is so goddamned shallow and humans are not good at it when compared with talking.

Social media has ruined our faith in fellow man. The media glosses over nuance for clickbait. We believe we have all the answers to the worlds problems because we watched a few YouTube Videos instead of having an actual dialogue we instead scream at each other.

# ¿ Dec 11, 2020 00:46

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Raenir Salazar posted:

Republicans doubling down on Trumpism in the wake of defeat instead of immediately kicking Trump off the GOP Island really is something I wasn't expecting and I think is going to do wonders in keeping people engaged.

Now the open question is which coalition will continue to turnout in mid terms, I can see the argument that without a clear Trump like figure running for office, with Republicans continuing to be cartoonishly evil just without the figurehead, that Democrats continue to turn out while Republicans maybe stay home.

If I was the GOP,

I would expect Trump to be charged, arrested and prosecuted for various types of crimes. This is a given his history and current on-going investigations especially that are only waiting for him lose executive privilege. He's likely to be found guilty but to the GOP that's irrelevant they use all the anger it generates to further energize their base.

# ¿ Dec 12, 2020 05:03

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TulliusCicero posted:

Do you have statistics to back this claim up? A lot of teachers and students I have seen and talked to (including myself) have made remote learning work since April. Maybe college professors might be having a hard time, but most college professors aren't very good instructors anyway, because they are not trained in education.

Tangent, but Remote Learning can and does work if you rebuild your curriculum with it in mind. The problem is a lot of the school district and college leadership are lazy and impatient as gently caress, and just tell teachers to "'make it work", with completely unreasonable guidelines by the states that are inflexible, on standards built for in-person learning, by geriatric politicians that haven't been in a classroom since the Beatles were a hot new band.

It's "imagine a huge square peg stuffed into a small round hole, forever"

I really hope we get actually good education policy with Jill Biden being a former educator. I can dream

Remote learning is another bullet point in the endless lists of reason why college education is too expensive. Room and board is already as much as a typical apartment if not even more. What's the point of paying for large college campuses?

Colleges want remote learning but to complement the experience not replace it.

# ¿ Dec 16, 2020 18:34

Gucci Loafers: May 20, 2006; Ask yourself, do you really want to talk to pair of really nice gaudy shoes?

I'd totally support some kind of advertising, marketing, propaganda, etc. thread. That'd be interesting as hell.

# ¿ Dec 29, 2020 02:49

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Discendo Vox posted:

I am one of those goons. DnD does not currently have the moderation necessary to handle discussion of this subject. It will go very bad, very fast.

Heh.

What the "communications goons" were the IKs?

# ¿ Dec 29, 2020 20:42

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With the way the economy has shifted even with things like remote work it simply no longer makes sense for these towns and cities to exist.

What is a little interesting is that many coal miners are rather educated and skilled machinists. It's just that once coals gone, then the best would be for them to pack their bags and relocate. That'd ideally be Texas, Nevada or even California with it's green energy industry.

# ¿ Dec 30, 2020 23:43

Gucci Loafers: May 20, 2006; Ask yourself, do you really want to talk to pair of really nice gaudy shoes?

I don't know if anyone forgot but let's remember one of Biden's nicknames was literally "Amtrak Joe".

# ¿ Dec 31, 2020 23:02

Gucci Loafers: May 20, 2006; Ask yourself, do you really want to talk to pair of really nice gaudy shoes?

Speaking of polling data... Honestly the GA Election despite all the good work done still appears to be super-tight 50/50 race looking at aggregated polls?

Maybe the Ds have a slight edge but not much if anything.

# ¿ Jan 1, 2021 03:08

Gucci Loafers: May 20, 2006; Ask yourself, do you really want to talk to pair of really nice gaudy shoes?

The good guys might win. Again. :ohdear:

# ¿ Jan 6, 2021 01:59

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Say the line Dave!

What is the line he's supposed to say?

# ¿ Jan 6, 2021 02:08

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I can't see Atlanta going Red. At all. Not in 2020.

If the trend continues, it's over.

# ¿ Jan 6, 2021 03:05

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Seph posted:

Without that assumption though, I don't see how the establishment Republicans survive this unless they blatantly disenfranchise the right wing of their party.

Agreed but I think it's unlikely we see the current crop of Republicans changing any time soon. Even in the Midterms or next election. Over the last four years we've seen the Old Guard moderate Republicans cut out of the Party. Who's left outside of Romney that's still in office?

We are left with people like Matt Gaetz and Ted Cruz who are never going to change. Or Graham who's just being slick and now throwing Trump under the bus after supporting him for years. They're ideologues who will fight until the end and have no reason not to especially given they're from heavily gerrymandered States and Districts.

# ¿ Jan 7, 2021 23:35

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Judakel posted:

Sure, in a very narrow and limited context that involves ignoring the fact the fastest growing demographic in the country didn't turnout in the numbers one would historically expect for the Democratic nominee during a year with record turnout.

What narrow and limited context? What was the expectation?

Minority Groups are by far and large voting for Democrats. It's not as uniform as expected but as far as I am aware the changes year over year while concerning weren't significant.

# ¿ Jan 8, 2021 23:21

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I thinks some folks here need to quantify what they mean by significant or large. I don't have it offhand but last I checked the Hispanic vote for Republicans on the Generic 2020 Ballot was 1-3% after consistently dropping over a decade.

# ¿ Jan 9, 2021 03:51

Gucci Loafers: May 20, 2006; Ask yourself, do you really want to talk to pair of really nice gaudy shoes?

I'm honestly 50/50 on (impeachment)conviction at this point, I can see it going either way but the recent actions are extremely negative. Even worse than the ACA Repeal. Let's look at the impact so far,

https://twitter.com/DavidNir/status/1349839738858041344?s=20

https://twitter.com/Civiqs/status/1348789395319492611?s=20

Edited Per Pick's reply.

Gucci Loafers fucked around with this message at 06:14 on Jan 15, 2021

# ¿ Jan 15, 2021 04:44

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pthighs posted:

If you aren't a Romney or a Toomey, why would you convict when you can just say, "Well, he's out of office now, we should move forward"? Those career-minded doofuses will swallow their pride and do the safe thing for their career, regardless of their feelings about Trump. Any who vote to remove will be putting a big target on their back in the primaries and will be angering the side that is violent. I haven't seen anything yet to convince me that the current backlash will be any more permanent than any of the other backlashes we've seen. For example, those corporate dollars will be flowing again soon enough.

If they don't convict Trump all he's going to do for next four years is continually litigate the election but not in court but merely constantly whining on television. This won't just demoralize the party but he'll continue to leech all of it's funding. I don't believe the majority of corporate donations will ever return. It's absolutely not in anyone's business interest to have a civil war. I think we will have more detail on this but I highly doubt they are returning.

And let's also think about the recent election. The democrats did decisively win we're just numb after the last four years. If we hadn't had an election with such a authoritarian president it would have been over on that night.

# ¿ Jan 15, 2021 14:42

Gucci Loafers: May 20, 2006; Ask yourself, do you really want to talk to pair of really nice gaudy shoes?

I think he'll be too old to run but he'll still run just to keep his grift going. After all, he's in hundreds of millions in debt.

# ¿ Jan 15, 2021 16:14

Gucci Loafers: May 20, 2006; Ask yourself, do you really want to talk to pair of really nice gaudy shoes?

Here's how bad it is,

https://twitter.com/New_Narrative/status/1350098139135561729?s=20

# ¿ Jan 15, 2021 16:16

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vyelkin posted:

This is the kind of poll that points to a GOP civil war between Republican politicians who see the toplines and realize that Trump is electoral poison in a general election, and their own base who even after everything that's happened continue to buy into Trump's narrative of the election and of the direction the United States is taking, and therefore continue to support him no matter what happens.

Good review, I guess my question is what happens to political parties that believe in baseless conspiracies and don't understand why they're losing in the first place? Are there any historical analogies?

What impact did Nixon/Ford and Carter have their parties? It seems the Republicans recovered after Bush and even Bush Jr. quite well but I don't believe that'll be the case for Trump.

# ¿ Jan 15, 2021 17:30

Gucci Loafers: May 20, 2006; Ask yourself, do you really want to talk to pair of really nice gaudy shoes?

The NRA just declared bankruptcy. And Sheldon Adelson passed way. You might as well consider the best Republicans PACs completely annihilated.

# ¿ Jan 15, 2021 22:16

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Pick posted:

George W Bush also almost completely disappeared. I don't even know what state he decided to live in.

He's announced he'll be at Biden inauguration and he'll even be participating. Not just watching.

# ¿ Jan 15, 2021 23:23

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Majorian posted:

I'm seeing news that he's attending, but where are you getting that he's participating? Not doubting you; that's just...grotesque news that I'd like to know the parameters of.

He's suppose do some kind of America United themed event during the inauguration along with Carter, Clinton and Obama. All the living US Presidents but not Trump.

Gucci Loafers fucked around with this message at 23:44 on Jan 15, 2021

# ¿ Jan 15, 2021 23:41

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Is it confirmed Pence is attending?

If so :lol:

No wonder Trump literally wants him dead.

# ¿ Jan 16, 2021 00:09

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Have there been any announcements from Trump outside of the Patriot Party announcement? I'm a little surprised he's been this quiet...

# ¿ Jan 28, 2021 02:15

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This is astounding, in short McConnell wanted Trump gone after the Capital Riots. His own party bucked and McConnell ended up blinking. I can't see the GOP continuing to win elections with Trump as a member of the party. Not to mention, his kids running for office. :barf:

My question, does anyone believe that this strategy is actually going to work? By that I mean the Republican Party taking back the Senate, House all the way to stuff like the various State and Local Governments. I can't see this occurring, not after the capital hill riots.

https://twitter.com/EricLiptonNYT/status/1354905062812823556?s=20

https://twitter.com/nytpolitics/status/1354793611985117189?s=20

Gucci Loafers fucked around with this message at 23:19 on Jan 28, 2021

# ¿ Jan 28, 2021 23:03

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Sodomy Hussein posted:

The political cunning of Mitch McConnell, Mastermind Majority Leader, continues to astound. As it turns out you can't back out of a deal with the Devil.

Don't get me wrong, I'm glad his party is making awful, terrible political decisions. For McConnell this means instead of enjoying retirement as successful public servant instead he'll be stuck watching everything he created burn down.

# ¿ Jan 29, 2021 00:39

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https://twitter.com/lbarronlopez/status/1356585916748431361?s=20

Good luck finding someone more liberal than Machin in West Virginia and can win an election as a Democrat. I don't know much about Arizona but that seems more feasible?

# ¿ Feb 2, 2021 17:51

Gucci Loafers: May 20, 2006; Ask yourself, do you really want to talk to pair of really nice gaudy shoes?

Yea, that's my take as well. West Virginia seems like a huge uphill battle and best fought somewhere else.

# ¿ Feb 2, 2021 18:00

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FMguru posted:

Some people saw just how much dumb money you could rake in by running a no-hope race against a prominent villain figure (like Amy McGrath did againt Mitch McConnell) and wanted in on that hustle.

Was their any hope for McGrath? She didn't strike me a grifter but honestly exceptionality talented and I mean that as I could see her being a great politician. Maybe it's just my gut feeling but her running against McConnell doesn't seem crazy even if it's a long shot.

# ¿ Feb 2, 2021 18:17

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# ¿ May 18, 2024 07:39

Gucci Loafers: May 20, 2006; Ask yourself, do you really want to talk to pair of really nice gaudy shoes?

FMguru posted:

I'm not saying McGrath was a grifter, but rather that her campaign showed that people will throw a ton of money at a longshot race just because it has a satisfying villain, and the grifters have take note.

Point taken. Do we still think she still should have ran? Or I guess what could she have done differently to prevent people from exploiting this opportunity?

# ¿ Feb 2, 2021 18:26

The Something Awful Forums > Discussion > Debate & Discussion > Political Polls and Party Strategy 2021: Political Polling Somehow Still a Thing

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