Derek Lowe posted:

https://blogs.sciencemag.org/pipeline/archives/2020/12/30/vaccine-roundup-late-december

Oxford/AstraZeneca: As the world knows, this adenovirus vector vaccine has been a messy one. I think that both partners need to take responsibility for some real mistakes in the trial execution and further mistakes in their announcements since the data became available. But I haven’t seen any sign of that (although I would be even happier than usual to be corrected on that point).

Last night, the UK authorities approved this vaccine for distribution there. Of special interest is the intent to give as many people as possible a first shot, without holding back supplies for the second round. I think that this is simultaneously the correct decision for them to make and also very bad news. It appears that the coronavirus variant first reported there is indeed more contagious: Trevor Bedford is convinced, and we have early data that would seem to only make sense if the R for this form is indeed higher. One mechanism for that may be higher viral load developing in patients more quickly, making them presumably more infectious (via shedding more viral particles). That said, it also appears (so far) that the course of disease with this variant is not actually worse than the other strains, but it’s not any better, either. And with higher transmission, that’s bad enough. (Note that the WHO believes that the South Africa variant is spreading quickly as well).

That situation in the UK appears to be one of the biggest factors driving the approval and rollout, and I see their point: this vaccine is indeed better than nothing, one shot for more people is likely to be better than two-shots-for-some, and it looks like they’re going to need all the help they can get. But “better than nothing” is a rough place to be. So what do we know about the efficacy of a single shot of the Oxford/AZ vaccine, and about the effect of waiting for a second one?

All I can say is that attempts to answer those questions land you immediately in a confusing mess. It’s a mess made worse by AstraZeneca, whose CEO has made statements about the vaccine’s efficacy that are not (so far) backed up by actual numbers. If you’d like me to name a major drug company that’s going to come out of this pandemic looking worse, it’s them. Anyway, as you’ll recall, initially there was a hint that a lower first dose followed by a standard second dose might be more protective overall (although I don’t think the evidence for that is very strong at all, considering the statistical spread in the data). But now there’s a report that increased efficacy might be driven by an even longer wait between the two doses. I don’t find that evidence very compelling, either (we’re getting into some pretty small subgroups by this point, and that is always a dangerous area to draw conclusions from). And if you’re going to leave people walking around with a half dose at first, or a full dose but with a longer wait for the second one, it makes the question above even more crucial: how protective is one dose?

We do not know. We don’t know for this vaccine, nor for the Pfizer/BioNTech one, nor for Moderna’s. No studies have been designed to find that out, so all we can do is guess based on what we’ve seen with the interval between doses in the two-dose studies. That’s been encouraging with the two mRNA vaccines, but remember: we don’t know how they are over a longer period, because no one was left without a second dose for that long. It’s certainly possible that without the second booster that the protection seen after one shot starts to wane. We do not know. And we know even less about the Oxford/AZ vaccine’s behavior under these conditions. Giving as many people in the UK as possible a single dose of that vaccine with a longer wait until the booster is a gamble, and you wouldn’t want to do it that way if the alternatives weren’t even worse. It’s the right move, unfortunately, and it’s a damned shame it’s come to this.

The US trial of this vaccine was paused for weeks, of course, while adverse events were investigated. It’s basically fully enrolled now, and the data will include many more elderly patients than have been investigated to date. I would assume that our current terrible infection rates will allow this trial to move along rather quickly, but I have no estimate of when we might see it report.

sinky posted:

Have u considered that leaving the EU will solve problems not caused by being in the EU??

https://twitter.com/guardian/status/1344650282198831105?s=20

ANYTHING YOU SOW posted:

Some more on the decision to have a longer wait between first and second dose of the vaccine:

quote:

"Apartheid was horrible in South Africa and it’s horrible when Israel practises its own form of apartheid against the Palestinians, with checkpoints and a system of oppressive policies. Indeed another US statute, the Leahy law, prohibits US military aid to governments that systematically violate human rights.

It’s quite possible that one of the reasons that Israel’s version of apartheid has outlived South Africa’s is that Israel has managed to maintain its oppressive system using not just the guns of soldiers, but also by keeping this nuclear gun pointed at the heads of millions. The solution for this is not for Palestinians and other Arabs to try to attain such weapons. The solution is peace, justice and disarmament.

South Africa learned that it could only have real peace and justice by having truth that would lead to reconciliation. But none of those will come unless truth is faced squarely – and there are few truths more critical to face than a nuclear weapons arsenal in the hands of an apartheid government.

Jakabite posted:

I think in the case of this one shot thing there actually is a fair degree of consensus, even from the linked article. It is a terrible call to have to make but is at the moment the best decision with the information available. It’s a risk but public health is about balancing risk and when you’re heading to pain town and arriving in five minutes, you’re better off deploying everything ASAP than waiting.

Necrothatcher posted:

surprised the Guardian published this:

https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2020/dec/31/joe-biden-us-pretence-israel-nuclear-weapons

Julio Cruz posted:

wonder how long before whoever wrote it is linked to Corbyn

Regarde Aduck posted:

I can't actually listen to these dickheads anymore. I mean the scientists and experts. They are at best weak willed and unable to convince the people that matter and at worse actively stupid. Every crisis point, such as this, has just as many 'experts' argueing the exact opposite. Which means half of them are lying or wrong. There's been no consensus on anything. It's all hosed.

Tarnop posted:

Do you honestly think they'll be giving people a second shot in 12 weeks? Or in in 12 weeks time will the same people (Blair) be arguing that those shots should go to unvaccinated people? What does your heart tell you?

Necrothatcher posted:

It's Desmond Tutu.

Necrothatcher posted:

It's Desmond Tutu.

Guavanaut posted:

Weasling Weasel posted:

gently caress me, sounds like it's not just London Hospitals turning people away now. It is possible to try anyone on twitter with that loving smily faced in their handle for murder yet.

Gambrinus posted:

Johnson and Hancock should be afraid to ever set foot in public again. Hope they get their food spat in. Hope someone takes a baseball bat to them. Cunts.

Private Speech posted:

Actually now that I think about it Gibraltar joining Schengen might create a pretty big headache refugee-wise, since Schengen tourist visas are significantly easier to get than the UK ones.

Won't be much use for illegal migrants like NI would be, but it could be an interesting option for refugees?

stev posted:

Just those two?

Nutapii posted:

What smiley face?

Jedit posted:

https://twitter.com/SpillerOfTea/status/1344629788191973376

Regarde Aduck posted:

I can't actually listen to these dickheads anymore. I mean the scientists and experts. They are at best weak willed and unable to convince the people that matter and at worse actively stupid. Every crisis point, such as this, has just as many 'experts' argueing the exact opposite. Which means half of them are lying or wrong. There's been no consensus on anything. It's all hosed.

Dead Goon posted:

Mother Teresa was a bit poo poo too, turns out Religion isn't particularly nice.

endlessmonotony posted:

Wizard?

CyberPingu posted:

That's a mighty big brush you have there.

feedmegin posted:

Lizard wizard. Queens actually a Slann.

endlessmonotony posted:

Organized religion has this whole problem with being unaccountable.

You might have heard about some of the problems it has led to in... uh, every faith that has ever inherited an organization?

Faith's like wealth, kids shouldn't inherit their parents'.

sebzilla posted:

Hot take: earnest wholehearted belief in a supernatural religion in 2020 is p. bonkers and lowers my opinion of the critical thinking abilities of anyone who announces their beliefs to me.

Like if you were brought up in a church and like the community bits then I guess cool, whatever, but actual God stuff? For real? Why?

Counts double for people who come to it later in life and haven't had it forced on them from youth.