- CommonShore
- Jun 6, 2014
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A true renaissance man
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 It’s the UFC 259 Breakdown
Hey if you don’t think this looks like a good card, you’re in the wrong thread because that means you don’t like mma. This is a triple championship card (one of two in UFC history I think? Idk I can’t remember). And if you think about it, there are 5 belts on the card, even of only 3 of them are on the line. That’s kinda neat. One of the champ fights is super competitive, one is lopsided but oddly compelling, and one is a technical dork’s wet dream so shall we?
Plus as of today we have 15 fights, which means that we’ll probably have a good 11 come Saturday 
As a consequence, I’m going to actually break down each section of the card in a different post, because this is three pages in Word by the time I’m through the title fights – there is a lot of fights and a lot to say!
Main Card
Light Heavyweight Championship Jan Blachowicz © (+207) vs Israel Adesanya (-222)
Middleweight champion Israel Adesanya makes his bid at becoming a simultaneous two-division champion, and Polish Power Blachowicz makes his first title defense after upsetting Dominic Reyes to win the vacant title. This is a cool fight from a technical dork’s perspective because there are so many interesting factors.
Blachowicz entered the UFC with a grappler’s resume, and looked for some time like an also-ran contender, but he has shifted his threat towards heavy hands in recent years and put those hands on enough dudes to become the first champion of what may be the post Jon Jones era. He’s on an 8-1 run right now, including decisive, scary KOs of Corey Anderson and Luke Rockhold. He’s an extremely powerful fighter and his game is built around that.
Adesanya on the other hand is a slick technician kickboxer who last time out beat the snot out of challenger Paulo Costa in September. He’s undefeated as a professional mixed martial artist, and 9-0 in the UFC.
What are these factors? Well the first one I see is Jan’s size advantage. Jan is a big light heavyweight – he’s as big for this division as Paulo Costa is for middleweight. Sure, Izzy (a long but lean middleweight) beat Costa, but how will he contend with Jan’s additional 20 lbs? Weight classes exist for a reason. If Izzy can’t get any respect from Jan things won’t go well for him (or perhaps for the audience, see below). People will think back to Silva vs Griffin, but the size difference is much larger here. And if Jan gets to a clinch, he’ll probably just crumple Izzy up into a cube like that looney toons dog mangling Sylvester the cat.
The next one is Izzy’s striking IQ. I don’t like dealing in GOAT talk (in fact I think it’s a stupid conversation because obviously it’s GSP) but Izzy may be the best striker ever in MMA. He’s on that short list and in that conversation. He’s fast and creative, and he has adapted his skills well to the sport. If he can hurt Jan, his speed and technical superiority are so great that it’s hard to see how he loses this.
Here's the problem though – these two factors can come together into an extremely boring fight. If Izzy can’t get Jan’s respect, but then it goes past the first round, Izzy is disciplined and smart enough (and shameless enough) to just tap Jan’s knee with low-commitment low kicks for the next 20 minutes and take a decision. He’ll do what he has to win, and he’s not risk adverse, but he’s also not one to take stupid risks just because someone boos him. Don’t forget the Yoel Romero fight.
Featherweight Championship Amanda Nunes ©(-710) vs Megan Anderson (+750)
Some money has come in on Anderson since last night – she was +8xx last I looked. This is our blowout. Women’s Featherweight is a lovely division. There simply aren’t enough fighters in it for it to be competitive, but Nunes has killed everyone and the only possible contender in either of the two divisions that she terrorizes is Megan Anderson.
Nunes is a powerful grappler/brawler. She has a judo black belt, so she’s hard to take down, she has a BJJ black belt and an excellent back game, so she murders opponents on the ground, and she also has accurate punches and faceplant KO power. She is the most dominant woman in the sport. At one time she had a reputation of being a one-round fighter, but that’s well in the past. She’s coming off a 5-round brutal beating of grappler Felicia Spencer.
Anderson is pretty much just a kickboxer. She’s the tallest woman in the UFC (probably ever), and she has a crummy ground game – she got notably outgrappled by Holly Holm. But here’s the thing – she has power: Holly Holm decided it was best to take her down.
Anderson doesn’t have a great set of tools, but last night Dan Hardy released a breakdown which made me (and some gamblers) realize that she may have the right tools to threaten Nunes: long straight punches to meet Nunes’s hooks, strength in the clinch to make Nunes work to take it down, and pretty good timing that can make things connect. She also has extremely freaky long legs which she likes to throw on an opponent on the exit, and which she can make connect hard enough to end a fight. Would I bet the house on Anderson? gently caress no. But I might throw a small bet on her while I pick Nunes in a parlay.
Bantamweight Championship Petr Yan © (-104) vs Aljamain Sterling (-107)
And here’s our pickem. This fight is raddddd. Yan is our fresh champ of the post-Cejudo era, taking the vacant title by beating up an unfortunately overmatched Jose Aldo in July. He’s good at punching people, at kicking them, and good at wrestling them too.
Sterling is the current darling of the Serra-Longo camp. He’s primarily a grappler but he has some striking skills too. He’s right now on a 5-fight streak with a blow-out first-round submission of Cory Sandhagen (the guy who clowned Frankie Edgar) in June.
For me the X factor in this is relative experience. They have a one common opponent: Jimmie Rivera (last weekend’s FOTN), who they both beat by decision. Yan is undefeated in the UFC, but he did this funny thing where he got the title shot with a bit of luck – while Aljo, and a few other top contenders like Marlon Moraes played a game of “let’s all beat each other in an MMA math circle,” allowing Cejudo the double-champ opportunity, Yan leapfrogged them and got a title shot by KOing the ghost of Urijah Faber, and then won the belt from an overmatched Jose Aldo. Meanwhile, Aljo has had to scrap through a series of top guys in the last couple of years.
Yan needs to show that he’s truly the champ. Aljo has earned his shot and stands on top of a heap of contenders. This is a great fight from a sporting perspective. Let’s enjoy it.
Lightweight Islam Makachev (-326) vs Drew Dober (+285)
This match loving owns. Islam is, according to Khabib, the heir to the lightweight division. He’s 18-1 overall and 7-1 UFC, his one loss a KO to Adriano Martins in his second UFC fight in 2015. Last time out he clowned BJJ standout Davi Ramos in September 2019 (that might be important). Dober is a lightweight dark horse, and he has earned my respect slowly in recent years. He’s on a 3-fight KO streak bringing his UFC record to 9-4 (1 NC). He’s a sturdy muay thai-based fighter. He has been outgrappled in the past (Dariush and Olivier Aubin-Mercier both submitted him) so Makachev is a rightful favourite, but Dober is an excellent and accurate striker who seems to have put things together. Makachev’s inactivity may also be a factor here.
Light Heavyweight Thiago Santos (+138) vs Aleksander Rakic (-149)
Hell yes. Santos fought not long ago so I’m going to reuse what I wrote: Santos is a mediocre-to-good middleweight who moved up to light heavyweight, went on a tear, and took Jon Jones to an extremely close decision which nearly everyone other than the judges scored for Santos. Oh, and Santos blew out both of his knees in that fight. This is his return to action. Santos is extremely aggressive, has power in all limbs, extremely accurate kicks, and a penchant for body shots. He’s fun to watch. He lost that fight to Glover by third round RNC, and by bad fight IQ. He severely hurt Glover with strikes several times but allowed Glover the chance to recover. Oh, and Santos has a KO over current champ Jan.
Rakic is an Austrian with a 5-1 UFC record, his loss a split decision to former title challenger Volkan Oezdemir. In September he took a pretty one-sided decision over former title challenger Anthony Smith. He’s a pretty well-rounded fighter with a couple quick KO wins. I don’t have too many thoughts on Rakic – I’ve seen him fight, and I remember he looked good, but nothing really stuck. This is a cool fight because they’re both strikers and Santos is one of the hardest hitters in the sport.
Prelims coming tomorrow.
UFC 259 Prelims (ESPN/ESPN+)
Bantamweight Dominic Cruz (+118) vs Casey Kenney (-125)
I like this kind of matchmaking even if I’m not entirely jazzed about the specific matchup. Too often we see former champs left to fight at the top level until we see them get KOed like 5x straight with no opportunity to get their feet underneath them (see: Weidman) and clogging up high-visibility spots that could be going to other matchups. The matchmakers need to be doing more matches like this: let the champ have a fight against someone farther down the totem pole. If they win, they get some confidence back. If they lose, you’re giving a boost to a prospect.
Dominic Cruz was the original UFC Bantamweight champion, getting that honour in 2010 when the UFC absorbed the WEC. He’s a high-activity scrambly striker who has great wrestling that he fluidly mixes in. He has also spent a ton of time on the shelf because his knees have a habit of repeatedly exploding, which leads to him being a two-time champion who only lost the belt once. Cody Garbrandt outclassed him in 2016 to take the belt in one of the best performances ever in MMA (watch it if you haven’t) and then Cruz in his next fight in 2020 challenged Henry Cejudo for the belt and lost by second round TKO. This will be Cruz’s first 3-round booking since 2014 and only his second since 2010.
Kenny is a stocky judo-based fighter from LFA who has a 5-Dvalishvilli UFC record (Merab owns more than a couple “0s”). In October he took a fight-of-the-night decision over Nathaniel Wood. This fight will tell us a lot about both fighters. Personally, I think that Cruz is old, but he has a good style for bringing his experience to bear. He has a bad style for fighting with broken knees.
Bantamweight Song Yadong (-141) vs Kyler Phillips (+135)
Song Yadong is a 16-4-1 (1) Chinese fighter with a 5-0-1 UFC record. He has a decision over Chito Vera and a majority draw with Cody Stamann which many thought should have clearly gone against him. He’s a pretty good fighter with pretty good striking, though admittedly I can’t remember many details about him beyond thinking that he has potential. I made fun of Kyler’s name back in October but he won his fight pretty decisively. He’s an 8-1 LFA product with a TUF loss to Brad Katona.
Flyweight Joseph Benavidez (+112) vs Askar Askarov (-117)
Poor Joey B. He was once called the uncrowned king of the Flyweight division, and then Mighty Mouse happened. Then Mighty Mouse went away and then DFigs happened. And now he’s fighting a guy with only one name on an ESPN prelim. Benavidez is an important figure in the lighter weight classes, having come in with the WEC merger. He’s one of the best rounded fighters in MMA, though grappling is his forte, and he has a reputation for being a smart fighter too. He’s coming off of two consecutive stoppage losses to Deiveson in title shots. He’s the champ of Megan Olivi’s heart anyway. Askar Askarov is 12-0-1 with a split draw to current title challenger Brandon Moreno. He’s a Dagestani wrestler with a win by twister. Tune in for some fun grapple action! If Askarov wins he’s probably the next in line for a title shot.
Flyweight Rogerio Bontorin (+118)vs Kai Kara-France (-132)
Second of three flyweight fights on this card. Kara-France is a city kickboxing product from New Zealand with a pretty good all-around striking game, though he lacks stopping power. He’s 5-2 in the UFC, though his losses are to Brandon Moreno (title challenger) and Brandon Royval (had a #1 contender shot) so he’s still in the mix. His fight with Royval in September, by the way, was a banger. Bontorin is a Brazilian from contender series. He has two UFC wins over dudes I don’t know, and then a February decision loss to Ray Borg (who has been released for losing a bunch of fights). Idk anything about him.
Even Earlier Prelims (ESPN+/Fight Pass)
Flyweight Tim Elliott vs Jordan Espinosa
Tim Elliott got kicked out of the UFC for losing too many fights, and then he came back on TUF to win a title shot against Mighty Mouse, which he lost, and then he lost some more fights. He’s a fun fighter to watch because he’s a weirdo who fights with his back to his opponent. His last time out he won a decision over Ryan Benoit, and to be fair to Elliot his three consecutive losses before that were to Brandon Royval, Askar Askarov, and Deiveson. Espinoza is a guy who I can’t really remember. He’s from the contender series and is 2-3 in the UFC. His best win is Mark De La Rosa, which isn’t especially impressive. Oh Espinoza had Covid, so if you’re tracking that....
Light Heavyweight Kennedy Nzechukwu (+219) vs Carlos Ulberg (-230)
Ulberg is a 3-0 Kiwi who got in via the Contender series. He’s at City Kickboxing. I remember his win on DWCS once I looked it up – he caught a guy in a brawl. He’s tall and has power, but no experience. Nzechukwu is a 7-1 Nigerian fighter who also came in via CS. He got triangled by Paul Craig, but that seems to be a rite of passage for new light heavyweights these days anyway. I think he’s a striker.
Welterweight Sean Brady (-192) vs Jake Matthews (+184)
Matthews was supposed to become what eventually Robert Whittaker became. He’s an Australian who came in as something of a young super-prospect but he just rather matured into a mid-carder like Evan Dunham. He’s only 26, but he’s 10-4 in the UFC. Last time out he took something of an uninspiring but comfortable decision win over Diego Sanchez. Brady is 13-0, 3-0 UFC. In August he submitted some dude, but then had to withdraw from a booking with Belal Wozzname because of a broken nose.
Strawweight Livia Renata Souza (+205) vs Amanda Lemos (-215)
Souza is a former Invicta strawweight champ who has gone 3-1 in the UFC, losing to Brianna Van Buren. She’s grapple based, and generally pretty active in fights. She doesn’t look like a future title challenger to me. Lemos is 2-1 UFC with only 3 fights since 2017. She took a decision over M I Z U K I in August.
Lightweight Uros Medic (-157) vs Aalon Cruz (+114)
Yep I checked the spellings. Medic is a 6-0 Serb making his debut off of a first-round CS win on August. He trains with Rafael Cordeiro and that seems to match his KO-heavy record. Cruz is 8-3 with a KO loss to Spike Carlyle in his only UFC fight.
Bantamweight Mario Bautista (-225) vs Trevin Jones (+206)
Bautista is 9-1, with two straight UFC wins since losing his debut to Sandhagen. He has performance bonuses in both of those wins. Trevin Jones fights under the flag of Guam. In August he scored a POTN KO of Timur Valiev but then  lost that on his record, so right now he’s 0-0 (1NC) in the UFC.
There you have it! Tune in! It all looks quite watchable and fun.
Just remember that these are the odds as of Tuesday/Wednesday: some of these lines have shifted a lot since then. I only include the odds to give a sense of how lopsided the matchups are, anyway.
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Mar 6, 2021 22:05
