Register a SA Forums Account here!
JOINING THE SA FORUMS WILL REMOVE THIS BIG AD, THE ANNOYING UNDERLINED ADS, AND STUPID INTERSTITIAL ADS!!!

You can: log in, read the tech support FAQ, or request your lost password. This dumb message (and those ads) will appear on every screen until you register! Get rid of this crap by registering your own SA Forums Account and joining roughly 150,000 Goons, for the one-time price of $9.95! We charge money because it costs us money per month for bills, and since we don't believe in showing ads to our users, we try to make the money back through forum registrations.
 
  • Post
  • Reply
Ferrinus
Jun 19, 2003

i'm finding this quite easy, i guess in part because i'm a fast type but also because i have a coherent mental model of the world
I don't particularly care about "free speech" and am happy to see genocide deniers probated or banned, but I think it's clear at this point that the empirical facts of Chinese (re)education and repression programs are unclear enough, and inflected enough by propaganda from either side, that it is not natively obvious what is happening over there. Therefore, it's subject to political discussion and debate, and someone raising questions about it in either direction should not be understood to be stirring poo poo in bad faith or to be doing the equivalent of holocaust denial.

Adbot
ADBOT LOVES YOU

Ferrinus
Jun 19, 2003

i'm finding this quite easy, i guess in part because i'm a fast type but also because i have a coherent mental model of the world
I've put these two paragraphs in both the generic communism thread and the eurasia thread but i'm going to repost them here because they seem to have been useful to people. These are two posts a friend of mine made on another discussion board to criticize and contextualize what's happening in Xinjiang and also Mongolia. Sorry for the lack of caps etc:

quote:

it's one of those things where there's a coherent argument that the definition of genocide should include what's going on, but if you actually applied it evenly you would find that the uk did several hundred genocides and we are doing like three or four right now. what's going on in western china is bad, but mostly for more mundane reasons of cultural chauvinism, the everyday shittiness of hostile police forces, and various forms of coercing people into participating in the national wage labor market. the government is way more liberal than the public on minority issues in china, and the public in turn are somewhat more accepting of minority cultures having a place in the country than in several neighboring countries. in fact the problem is precisely that they're listening too much to the liberal stuff because they're abandoning the soviet nationalities model and want to build a western melting pot, and are trying to take the most simple liberal criticisms of how the west actually did that and apply it in naïve fashion: for example they don't want to be seen as repressing islam in general, so they try to identify a good and bad islam, and come up with various theological doctrines and ritual practices associated with each, and layer in judgments about national and separatist identity, which may or may not be defensible in theory, but then when time comes to apply in practice, it means cops and spies caring a lot about whether your mosque conducts services in arabic or some central asian language other than uighur, and getting mad if they can't quickly figure out who someone is quoting or referencing, and a dozen other situations where the details of religious life are not readily legible to the police bureaucracy, generating suspicion and hostility that they're free to take as probable cause or whatever their analogue is. like, they're basically trying to be more woke than us about it, while also doing a hell of a lot more of it and more comprehensively transformative and in everyone's face than we would (whereas the instinct of liberal interventionists when confronted with messy effects from disruptive policies is to minimize things, fiddle with edge cases, target more narrowly), and that generates extreme contradictions

quote:

do we know that maoist and/or bolivarian communes aren’t happening? yes

the situation in inner mongolia is simply that they’re telling the schools where the instruction had been primarily in mongolian language and script to switch to primarily chinese language instruction with mongolian language as a standalone subject. [other poster] is correct in noting that it would still be easy for kids who wanted to retain mongolian language in daily home and community use to do so, provided they have some motivation outside of it being the primary language of instruction. it’s also true that this level of language practice in schools would be a substantial improvement over what other people facing declining languages have available, such as most minority languages in europe, or the non-mandarin chinese dialects. it’s also true what the locals are concerned about, that this is clearly a part of the national policy of reducing the standing of minority language and practice in a top-down fashion. unlike with the tibetans or uighurs, there isn’t even a plausible negative outcome that is being avoided: ethnic mongols are well-integrated in areas where they live with han chinese, and the pockets of people who don’t speak chinese and don’t want to keep well enough to themselves. the choice between primarily mongolian language schools and primarily chinese language schools was already available in most parts of inner mongolia, and people were in the process of increasingly choosing chinese language schools for basically career opportunities. closing off the choice seems to be a pointlessly insulting move, particularly to the teachers who aren’t masters of chinese language use to the extent they are fluent in mongolian, who are facing job losses because the government doesn’t think their language is important. it’s very understandable that they and their allies in the diaspora are very unhappy about it

i don’t like it because i don’t want to be part of an oppressor people but also i think by most objective standards the mongol language and culture is still hugely better respected than, like, irish gaelic in ni. and it’s true that the market economy would have driven the same trends it has everywhere in terms of language use shifting to those dominant in large commercial areas. it’s just you would hope for communism to do positive things about that instead of saying that changing to be more efficient producers is social progress

I think it does a good job of squaring the circle of, on one hand, acknowledging that there is obviously state-based coercion and repression happening along ethnic and religious lines, but on the other hand understanding that the incentives of the developmentalist Chinese state are different from the incentives of the hegemonic US state and therefore alter how and why China treats with its own ethnic minorities. Trying to proletarianize your rural population in order to increase the urban labor pool is different from trying to terrorize migrants in order to maintain an easily-exploited lower stratum in the reserve army of labor.

This on its own isn't meant to convince anyone (I assume this isn't actually meant to be a thread in which the debate is settled), but I'm trying to illustrate here that the "pro-China" take is a good-faith analysis coming from a particular socialist tradition and not a deliberate attempt to sweep war crimes under the rug or something.

Ferrinus
Jun 19, 2003

i'm finding this quite easy, i guess in part because i'm a fast type but also because i have a coherent mental model of the world

Flavius Aetass posted:

Yeah this is essentially the root of the issue as I see it, so whether you like Rime or not I'd like this to be addressed by the people arguing in favor of less moderation.

Defense or even contextualization of the CCP's policies in various ethnic autonomous regions isn't a matter of "this genocide is good, actually" or "though this genocide is regrettable, it is a price we have to pay for progress", it's "this isn't a genocide." In fact, for many, the Soviet and Chinese models autonomy and targeted economic development for ethnic minorities is precisely an alternative and antidote to the flatly genocidal policies of such liberal capitalist states as Canada.

Ferrinus
Jun 19, 2003

i'm finding this quite easy, i guess in part because i'm a fast type but also because i have a coherent mental model of the world

SpiderHyphenMan posted:

Is current-day China proof that communism works?

Jury's still out on that one, but it's definitely proof that Deng knew what he was talking about.

Rime posted:

Genocide is OK here because we are ideologically pure, unlike those filthy capitalists.

There is zero difference between the decades of enforced Sinicization and cultural repression in Xinjiang, and the Residential Schools program of Canada. To claim that what is occurring there is fine and acceptable because China was a communist nation decades ago is insanity. To claim crimes against humanity are an "antidote" to capitalism is reprehensible and disgusting.

See, you've literally read the opposite of what I wrote. I don't think genocide is okay. You and I disagree on the facts, not the ethics. If I thought the vocational schools in China were even the loose equivalent of the residential schools in Canada, I would oppose them in the strongest possible terms. However, I don't think they're the same for a variety of reasons (taking some adults rather than a preponderance of children, for starters).

To be fair to you, I might be a gleeful supporter of genocide who is simply cloaking his bloodthirst beyond technical quibbles about contemporary and historical facts. For sure, actual holocaust deniers will open with leading questions about logistical feasibility, not lay all their cards down on the table immediately. However, that's not what I'm doing. I think the CCP has contradicting forces in it, some of which genuinely want to push Han chauvinism and who complain that minorities get too many rights, and others of which want to cleave to the Soviet "each nationality gets autonomy" model. I think both communists and capitalists in the Chinese elite have a strong interest in dumping as many people into the industrial proletariat as quickly as possible, such that terrorist attacks in Xinjiang give them a good pretext to ramp up and do manually something that was just happening due to market forces before.

However, no one in China actually has an incentive to commit genocide on any of its internal nationalities rather than just put all those nationalities to work. This is why the one-child policy, for instance, hit the Han the heaviest and minorities like the Uyghurs the lightest.

Ferrinus
Jun 19, 2003

i'm finding this quite easy, i guess in part because i'm a fast type but also because i have a coherent mental model of the world

Hairy Marionette posted:

You’re right about the one child policy. Most (all?) minorities were exempted from the policy. But I could just as easily say that nobody in America has an incentive to commit genocide on any of our minority populations. Genocide is never something that has a rational reason behind it, and yet America does a hell of a lot of it.

Americans don't have an incentive to literally exterminate Black people and Mexicans, but they do have a powerful incentive to dehumanize and immiserate them because sorting people into tiers and doling out human rights proportionate to your spot on the tier list is an important element of extracting profits. The internment camps on the US's southern border are absolutely logical, because they help us to maintain an underclass to hyper-exploit. Full-on industrial extermination camps might represent an irrational excess, but you don't need those to be doing a genocide as such.

Ferrinus
Jun 19, 2003

i'm finding this quite easy, i guess in part because i'm a fast type but also because i have a coherent mental model of the world

Hairy Marionette posted:

I don’t follow how genocide can be rational for America and irrational for China. But then, I don’t understand why my fellow Americans are racist despite growing up in the most segregated city in the country.

I would say that genocide is not rational for China yet, because China is still faced with the challenge of getting as many people as it can into the urban proletariat in order to develop its productive forces, and the wealth it's amassed thus far comes mostly from investment by stronger powers rather than the exploitation of weaker powers. That is to say, slavery and colonialism aren't (yet) major contributing factors to the Chinese economy, so the racism that greases those gears isn't really central to China's continuing function.

This can certainly change depending on how China's relationship to, say, Africa develops, or when the Chinese productive forces have been built up to such an extent that they have to start figuring out how to systematically abandon and warehouse their surplus population. In that case, inventing race to determine who gets a job and who doesn't becomes useful to the point of being arguably unavoidable.

Ferrinus
Jun 19, 2003

i'm finding this quite easy, i guess in part because i'm a fast type but also because i have a coherent mental model of the world

thotsky posted:

some mod said C-SPAM has to be palatable to a liberal consensus elsewhere in the forums

why? just don't read it, you're the free speech guys

I would say it "has to" be palatable to a liberal consensus in the same way that a new enterprise "has to" be profitable. It's not good, it's just how things happen to work. The broader SA community isn't going to allow a Stormfront subforum or something, even though in theory liberal principles of free speech demand that we give the Klan its day in court. Likewise, communist apologia is constrained by the forums Overton window whether it ought to be or not. Ideally, the consensus can be moved left over time.

Ferrinus
Jun 19, 2003

i'm finding this quite easy, i guess in part because i'm a fast type but also because i have a coherent mental model of the world

Nix Panicus posted:

You know what? Fair. I took a few minutes to look through Homex's old posts and they were level headed about China for the most part.

Totally a Holodomor apologist though, although I partially agree that while the famine was a thing that happened due to incompetence, mismanagement, and fickle nature instead of an engineered genocide, lol if you don't think Stalin didn't take advantage of the situation.

Homex was also weird about the DPRK

I think part of it was that Homex was engaging with some of the biggest shitheads on the forums who were constantly screaming about the billions murdered by communism, which put them on the defensive. CSPAM was certainly shittier in the past

Take advantage of the situation to...?

Ferrinus
Jun 19, 2003

i'm finding this quite easy, i guess in part because i'm a fast type but also because i have a coherent mental model of the world

Relevant Tangent posted:

A ton of Americans are calling out the camps on the border, in America. Also it's wild if you can recognize that those are genocidal death camps but not that the ones in China are.

The question is, what is the political purpose of genocidal death camps in China? It's obvious why the US would want to torture and dehumanize nonwhite migrants. Why would China do an about-face and start trying to exterminate the self-same ethnic group whose social reproduction they directly supported scant decades ago?

Ferrinus
Jun 19, 2003

i'm finding this quite easy, i guess in part because i'm a fast type but also because i have a coherent mental model of the world

Relevant Tangent posted:

I don't know. I think being willing to call them what they are is probably an important first step to figuring it out.

Your problem is that you aren't being cynical enough. There isn't some kind of universal human urge to commit genocide that all world leaders are secretly restraining. States do things to advance their material interests, not just because. Follow the money!

Per quotes I posted earlier, there's a solid argument to be made that the CCP is engaged in, if not a cultural genocide per se, at least a sort of cultural bed of Procrustes - sanding off all the rough or potentially-destabilizing edges of Uyghur culture in order to leave something behind which is conducive to A) entering the labor force and B) driving tourism. These are both things which will enrich and strengthen the state, and which Middle Eastern terrorism gives the Chinese government the pretext to do with state-backed coercion rather than simply waiting for it to happen through market forces.

The cultural and economic position of Uyghurs in China just isn't the same as the cultural and economic position of Mexicans or Hondurans in the US, so China has no incentive to treat them like we treat Mexicans and Hondurans. To be sure, China will subject them to coercive force in accordance with its interests, but you need to have some grasp of what those interests actually are.

Ferrinus
Jun 19, 2003

i'm finding this quite easy, i guess in part because i'm a fast type but also because i have a coherent mental model of the world

Serf posted:

for me it was realizing that authoritarianism is fake

Boy, can you believe that socialist states constitute a class dictatorship? Thank goodness that's not true for literally all other states by definition- (touches earpiece, frowns)

Ferrinus
Jun 19, 2003

i'm finding this quite easy, i guess in part because i'm a fast type but also because i have a coherent mental model of the world

Dolphin posted:

yes they are.

Why would the Chinese government attempt to exterminate an ethnic group whose development and reproduction it had been deliberately supporting mere decades ago?

Ferrinus
Jun 19, 2003

i'm finding this quite easy, i guess in part because i'm a fast type but also because i have a coherent mental model of the world

Dolphin posted:

actually i equated them directly to something the us did so this is some bad faith bullshit

The equation doesn't make sense, is your problem here. Maybe if the US government was specifically arresting Mexicans who were found to be particularly faithful Catholics on suspicion of promoting child abuse?

Ferrinus
Jun 19, 2003

i'm finding this quite easy, i guess in part because i'm a fast type but also because i have a coherent mental model of the world

Dolphin posted:

no, that's also not how burden of proof works. there appears to be widespread consensus that this is a thing that is occurring so it's incumbent on you to prove that it isn't. kinda like how everyone says gravity is a thing and if i say it's been wrong all along i have to provide the evidence.

There is not a widespread consensus. It only seems to you that there is because of your immersion into a particular slice of the western media sphere. The appearance of consensus is manufactured in part by taking a few extremely specious sources and having a multiplicity of publications, front groups, etc all cite those few sources in slightly different ways. That's why all the stuff you're posting - which, doubtless, seems to you to be a galaxy of evidence - keeps turning out to stem from the same two or three guys.

Ferrinus
Jun 19, 2003

i'm finding this quite easy, i guess in part because i'm a fast type but also because i have a coherent mental model of the world

Yes. There is actually nothing resembling a worldwide consensus on this - it only seems that way to you because like three sources, all with incredibly shoddy or outright specious research (like that famous sampling of eight (8) people to determine that over a million were in custody) have been multiplied across dozens or hundreds news website, twitter threads, TV bulletins, etcetera.

I think you're too deeply immersed to ever be convinced, but you do serve as a very useful example of the dangers of lacking a materialist analysis. Since you've consciously and repeatedly ignored any attempt to suss out an economic or even cultural basis for why China would cage or murder millions of its own people, you're just left bouncing around the discourse, seizing onto anything that sounds spectacular while boasting the barest veneer of professionalism, even though each individual source you put forth never, ever stands up to scrutiny. It doesn't matter, because it feels like they're a dozen others, even though behind the curtain they're all copying off each other's homework.

Ferrinus
Jun 19, 2003

i'm finding this quite easy, i guess in part because i'm a fast type but also because i have a coherent mental model of the world
A funny story is that this also happened with the Ukrainian famine, like they had their own Adrien Zenz-equivalent. "Thomas Walker", a literal wanted criminal and con man who hadn't been anywhere near the region at the time of the famine, ended up the frequently-cited and re-cited basis for an entire Victims of Communism cottage industry, and of course a bunch of Nazis, but I repeat myself.

Ferrinus
Jun 19, 2003

i'm finding this quite easy, i guess in part because i'm a fast type but also because i have a coherent mental model of the world

Grapplejack posted:

We know that the camps exist, and we know that they're "re-education camps" designed to "prevent terrorism" by "eradicating dangerous beliefs". That's straight from the chinese government.

Yes, absolutely, and I've seen some scathing criticisms of them by, for instance, Indian Maoists who work purely off China's own words and (some leaked) internal documents: https://www.cpiml.net/liberation/2020/08/chinas-concentration-camps-for-uyghurs-in-chinas-own-words

There's no question that, using the threat of terrorism as a pretext, the Chinese government is taking coercive measures to shape the religious practice and general training and education of some slice of Xinjiang's Uyghur population. The Uyghurs aren't the only ethnic group which is facing pressures to assimilate (I referenced earlier the way that Mongolian-primary schools are giving way to Mandarin-primary schools in which Mongolian is an elective course) but they might be facing the greatest and most direct pressure as a result of instability in the region.

The thing is, this is exactly where specific details, starting with but not limited to actual numbers, become important. There's a big difference between mandatory schooling for some adults who get to go home on weekends and for all children who board there for months, for instance. The former, more mild-sounding case still represents a top-down attempt to sculpt a population's cultural and religious beliefs to be friendlier to the state, obviously, but it's a far cry from trying to annihilate a culture outright, and as I've said before there's a sharp divide between trying to forcibly drive minorities into the workforce and trying to forcibly push minorities out of the workforce even if you use cops and holding facilities to do either job.

Ferrinus
Jun 19, 2003

i'm finding this quite easy, i guess in part because i'm a fast type but also because i have a coherent mental model of the world

Dolphin posted:

my point is that "anti-terrorism" is a very popular euphemism for doing unconscionable poo poo

I agree, and definitely think there's a self-serving element to the CCP's policies in Xinjiang for which counter-terrorism just serves as a pretext or excuse. The question is not whether Pres. Xi's heart weighs less than a feather, but what the self-serving element is. How is China cynically, materialistically advancing its own interests by repressing certain kinds of Islamic practice in Xinjiang? The best answer is that it is speeding up the rate at which certain rural or marginal populations enter the urban workforce.

Ferrinus
Jun 19, 2003

i'm finding this quite easy, i guess in part because i'm a fast type but also because i have a coherent mental model of the world

Grapplejack posted:

There's a lot of ways you can frame things using museums to notate traditional culture as being 'outdated and archaic' and reinforce whatever modern beliefs are, and you can do similar things with textbooks in order to reinforce a specific narrative that you're looking to build. The US did it by starving out these groups, but also used framing to enforce their systems on these groups.

It's also not super weird that the opinion on these minority groups changed, since the opinion on a lot of things have shifted over time with the Party since Mao, currently landing in Xi's heavily nationalistic government

Again, I think your read is correct here - although traditional communism places a huge premium on national/ethnic autonomy, it's generally conceived of in an instrumentalist way, like once these various nationalities find their footing and get proper support for their languages, schooling, etc. they will naturally want to fold themselves into our greater project of socialist construction as the next step. The CCP's ideal outcome is almost certainly that Uyghur culture remains as charming local flavor but loses any and all aspects that interfere with proletarianization and participation in nation-building.

However, I don't think that's at all the reasoning behind things like Canadian residential schools or American migrant internment facilities, because the US and Canada actually do need to destroy all remnants of indigenous peoples and systematically deny the humanity of people of color for their economies to work. The US doesn't actually want an open border or a closed border, and it doesn't want Mexicans to either fully assimilate or stay out entirely. Instead, they need to be present in the margins as an easily-exploited underclass.

Ferrinus
Jun 19, 2003

i'm finding this quite easy, i guess in part because i'm a fast type but also because i have a coherent mental model of the world

Dolphin posted:

My issue is not with people saying "we don't know for certain what's happening over there" because I totally agree with that. As I'm sure most people agree (I think) the CCP like other governments tightly controls their state secrets and a lot of this info is nigh impossible to accurately estimate barring the CCP releasing it. The only people who could possibly have access to that info is the CCP, or possibly other states' intelligence communities.

What I have a problem with is people vehemently denying stories from a multitude of people claiming this is occurring. Their experiences could separately be reasonable doubted, but taken as a whole I think it's really lovely to pronounce that you have the answer to this and the answer is it's just the US state department and a couple wackos and no one is actually suffering, and there is not an atrocity happening.

That's my point with the article thing, it's not "hah, THIS is the smoking gun" it's "here's more stories for you to dismiss while people are potentially suffering abroad" which maybe other people are comfortable with. I'm not.

You say "multitude" but in fact all your non-academic sourced keep collapsing back to the same several individuals or think tanks and unless I skimmed too aggressively you haven't posted any academic sources yet. Even the narratives of psychos like Zenz, when actually read rather than imagined and generalized from, end up describing this empty business like... there are boarding schools. There are cops. Etc.

You've studiously ignored every attempt to examine how and why the Chinese state would enact repressive measures because a materialist analysis just doesn't go the way you want it to. So, instead, there's just handful after handful of pocket sand, and somehow each particular source getting traced back to RFA or outright debunked never seems to have any bearing on how seriously we should take the next dozen.

Ferrinus
Jun 19, 2003

i'm finding this quite easy, i guess in part because i'm a fast type but also because i have a coherent mental model of the world

Dolphin posted:

not giving the guy any credit, as I said I don't even know much about zenz but is there a specific reason other than him being a religious idiot that he's blacklisted?

I see the evangelical leanings as the cherry on top the incredibly shoddy statistics done to produce the initial "over a million" figure and membership in the Victims of Communism foundation (which plays incredibly disingenuous numbers games of its own on the reg).

I'm sure Zenz is sincere in his allegations and joined VoC because they honestly reflect and support his beliefs, but I don't know what else but motivated reasoning could compel him to stick with his terrible numbers. The real problem, though, isn't him so much as the fact that like two sources out of three always end up leading back to him. If this joker constitutes so much of the genocide accusers' arsenal it indicates to me that they are scraping the bottom of the barrel.

Ferrinus
Jun 19, 2003

i'm finding this quite easy, i guess in part because i'm a fast type but also because i have a coherent mental model of the world

MY INEVITABLE DEBT posted:

look i dunno about you guys but im ready to believe a capitalist country is doing terrible things to its citizens

it just clashes heavily with the idea of the US (and others) government telling the truth about what anyone else is doing, or having pure motives to do literally anything

The thing is that China is in a different stage of capitalist development and therefore has different economic incentives that it will use state repression to pursue. 18th century England wasn't concerned over much with the immiseration of internal ethnic minorities because it was still trying to get as many of its own people out of subsistence farming or handicraft and into wage labor as possible, and to extend the length of the workweek from like four days to six.

Ferrinus
Jun 19, 2003

i'm finding this quite easy, i guess in part because i'm a fast type but also because i have a coherent mental model of the world

Admiral Ray posted:

This isn't true. So this is a single example, but for me is one of the big reasons I simply accept that China is committing cultural genocide (the distinction between genocide and cultural genocide is quite slim): In Zenz's report "Sterilizations, IUDs, and Mandatory Birth Control" (PDF) he makes the claim that 80% of net IUD placements are taking place in Xinjiang (calculated as placements minus removals). Chinadaily attempts to rebut that claim here, but they get the claim wrong:


Zenz specifically stated this:


Net IUD placement, not overall. Chinadaily also helpfully posts this image from the China Health Statistics Yearbook 2019:


Now Xinjiang is the very last row, and the second column is total placements, with the 4th column being removals. Using net IUD = placements - removals, then: (328475 - 89018)/(3774318 - 3474467) = 239457/299851 = 0.7986 ~ 80%.

Here we have something we can all easily check using China released information that Zenz is right about The attempted rebuttal by Chinadaily doesn't even get the claim correct and the information they show even confirms Zenz's claim. Based on this, I'm not sure why I should immediately dismiss the claims of others. Zenz's claim was crystal clear, so Chinadaily is simply purposely strawmanning this in order to muddy the water, because they know most people won't even perform a cursory check.

It looks like you're right that China Daily hosed up or even lied when it came to representing Zenz's claim here. However, the measure of "net IUD insertions" itself is extremely weird. Offhand I can't find population studies anywhere else that attempt to make that comparison, probably because if you don't know who is actually installing versus removing birth control devices and why the number gives you almost no information. If all women were to get an IUD at age 20 and then remove that IUD at age 40, for instance, then net IUD insertions would be zero, but there would nevertheless be a very strict birth control regime in place. If, 20 years later, only half of the next cohort of 20 year old women were to get IUDs, while the entirety of the original, now-40 cohort got theirs removed, then "net IUDs installed" would be negative... and yet, we're talking about a situation in which half of all young women are prevented from having children!

When I was talking about Zenz's dodgy math I wasn't actually thinking of his birth control math but rather the survey of eight random people to arrive at the "million or more" figure in the first place. Basically, the conclusions he draws from really-existing numbers are not credible.

Ferrinus
Jun 19, 2003

i'm finding this quite easy, i guess in part because i'm a fast type but also because i have a coherent mental model of the world

OK baizuo posted:

Cya all on bread & roses

I'm told that bread & roses summarily banned a very informative Chinese poster for having the wrong opinion on Xinjiang.

Admiral Ray posted:

The issue with the IUD's is that one of the common claims by women is that they are tricked into or otherwise forced to get an IUD, so this kind of extreme overrepresentation of IUD's in a province that doesn't have that many people lends credence to there being a sterilization program and backs up their claims.

The kind of obfuscation done by Chinadaily here is exactly the kind of bullshit the US pulls when trying to trick the world about our abuses, and seeing China do it in response to a serious accusation doesn't just make me suspicious, it makes me think the claim of genocide is not just more probable than not, but is actually likely. Importantly, it shows that even if Zenz is a motivated researcher, his claims can't be wholly dismissed. I understand why people are wary of him and things source from him, but skepticism doesn't equate to outright dismissal. If someone keeps crying wolf, we still need to check even if it's incredibly annoying because the consequences of not doing so are disastrous.

I don't believe that China Daily is engaged in obfuscation there because their error is just too easy to point out. Zenz may think he has a mission from god, but he isn't flatly incompetent; he's not going to literally punch numbers wrong into his calculator or something. I think they were excited to catch an unusually egregious error and failed to look a gift horse in the mouth.

Anyway, even if they are deliberately misrepresenting that one claim of Zenz's, and even if we're willing to disregard Zenz's other bullshit, is CD also lying that installations have either held steady or gone down in recent years?

Ferrinus
Jun 19, 2003

i'm finding this quite easy, i guess in part because i'm a fast type but also because i have a coherent mental model of the world
I think the best way for Westerners to oppose coercive measures by the CCP in Xinjiang is to oppose US imperialism in the Middle East. The less hellish the US is making that part of the world, the less pretext the Chinese state has to police minority cultures in the name of preventing terrorism, and more sway those forces in the party that oppose or at least want to ramp down what's going on in Xinjiang will have. Unfortunately, it is very hard to stop the US from just sending its army wherever it wants.

Ferrinus
Jun 19, 2003

i'm finding this quite easy, i guess in part because i'm a fast type but also because i have a coherent mental model of the world

Admiral Ray posted:

I would agree, but I've seen the same rebuttal done again and again (not here, but elsewhere). This is one of the few things that is easily checked because the statistics Zenz used aren't free to the public (which, imo, makes his claims weaker since he could have at least provided a loving table). If that Chinadaily article didn't post the actual scanned page from the Health and Hygiene Statistics Yearbook I never would have even been able to check the math.

I'm not sure what this is a response to. We know Zenz's claim about the 80% net IUD thing isn't fabricated, and the article addresses that separately, so I think this is in response to this claim of Zenz's:

Which is a confusing as hell sentence, but after reading it a few times I think he means the cumulative net added per capita. I don't know why he uses per capita rather than just sticking with his initial method, even if that method is strange as well. In any case, I can't independently verify his specific numbers here since I don't have access to the previous years statistics, but I did eyeball the values off this figure:



and the overall ratio is (1400 + 800 + 900 + 1000) / (400 + 50 + 50 + 25) = 4100/525 = 7.81. Again though, I have no loving idea where the actual values on this plot came from and I honestly don't know what units are being used. If the Y axis is supposed to be per 100k or per 10k, fine, but otherwise this poo poo doesn't make any sense. Even then, per what capita? In Xinjiang? In Uyghur women? In all women?

From what he shows, it does look like the rate of net IUD's added is stable (the trend per capita over the last decade fluctuates around 1000), while the rate of net IUD's added drops nationally. Since I don't have the raw data over this period, I can't check to see if this is simply due to a higher rate of removal nationally (which we may expect, especially since the 1 child policy was rescinded for Han families), but considering that the Uyghur population went from ~54% of the population to ~60% over the same period, it doesn't immediately make sense for that rate to remain the same in the province. Overall, that claim and the rebuttal are unconvincing either way since I can't get at the actual data for it.

After having taken some time to think about it, I am increasingly convinced that the reason China Daily refuted an imagined claim about raw number of IUDs added, rather than the actual claim about net number of IUDs added, is that "net IUDs added" is an insane statistic which communicates nothing. The people getting IUDs are different from the people removing IUDs! There might be a lot of young people entering the workforce who want to put off childbirth while, at the same time, the fact that IUDs weren't in widespread use prior (due to poverty, medical access, culture, whatever) means that there's no matching cohort of aging people who either feel ready to have children or who simply no longer have the need to bother.

An article linked a few pages ago goes into the statistic in a little more depth: https://thegrayzone.com/2021/02/18/us-media-reports-chinese-genocide-relied-on-fraudulent-far-right-researcher/

quote:

When Zenz attempted to defend himself against accusations of cooking statistics on birth control surgeries in Xinjiang, he ultimately cast further doubt on the quality of his research. Responding to a Chinese academic critic, he claimed that he had calculated Xinjiang’s 239,457 new net IUD insertions (devices added minus those removed) as 80% of the national total in 2018.

However, Henan province registered 206,281 new net IUD insertions, or 69%, in 2018. Hebei, meanwhile, registered 61%, amounting to a total of 210% of national net insertions. These numbers only make sense when calculated alongside provinces like Jiangsu and Yunnan that had more removals (-60% and -54%, respectively) than total national net insertions. By relying on such a bizarre metric, Zenz appeared to have attempted a cynical statistical sleight of hand to paint Xinjiang as a hotbed of birth control surgery.

In perhaps the most unintentionally absurd assertion in an article filled with them, Zenz asserted that the Chinese government inserted between 800 and 1400 IUDs per capita each year in Xinjiang. Which meant that each woman in the province would have had to have undergone anywhere from 4 to 8 IUD surgeries every day. With so much time spent on the operating table every day, it’s a wonder that anyone in Xinjiang could find time to work, or eat.

The bolding is mine (it's italics in the article); I want to draw attention to it because I think the weird "per capita" graph you post is actually Zenz's, not China's. As I say, I think that article is being too kind to Zenz because net insertions is, itself, a statistic of practically no utility; he's clearly gesturing at it and trying to get us to think that it indicates some sort of reproductive crackdown, but even a few moments' thought reveals that positive, neutral, or negative "net insertions" could all be associated with increased reproductive freedom or increased reproductive repression in different ways.

This is why I don't trust Zenz, and neither should you; he uses really-existing numbers, but tries to bullshit you about their implications. This is classic Victims of Communism fare; for example, in the course of totaling people killed by Stalin, they include the difference between Ukrainians born before the famine and after the famine, as though each potential person not conceived was actually a casualty of the Soviet state. Agenda first, numbers second.

Ferrinus
Jun 19, 2003

i'm finding this quite easy, i guess in part because i'm a fast type but also because i have a coherent mental model of the world

Dolphin posted:

can you think of another time a superpower sabotaged its own supply chain over anxiety?

The waxing power of monopoly and finance capitalism results in imperialism, and the uneven development of different regions of the world combined with the division and redivision of imperial spoils results in war. Kautsky theorized a "super-imperialism" in which all capitalist states merged into one gigantic extractive power that smoothly cooperated to exploit everything and everyone, but that just doesn't happen. Instead, you get the last hundred years of history.

Ferrinus
Jun 19, 2003

i'm finding this quite easy, i guess in part because i'm a fast type but also because i have a coherent mental model of the world

Admiral Ray posted:

Yeah I have to back off a bit on saying they were being deliberate in that. I don't tend to give media sources, especially state backed ones (eg, NYT to a large degree, Chinadaily), much slack on things like this since it's their entire job, but it is a bizarre metric that I can't say they were being purposeful in lying about after thinking about it for a while. I checked the numbers on the other provinces and since there's net negative removals in some provinces the "80%" is a lot more menacing than it seems. Xinjiang is still over-represented in the IUD stats, but it's not to the degree stated by Zenz. Rather, it is to the degree we might expect from a crackdown on a group that was previously allowed to flout the child policy in China. It's still horrific, and leads to cultural repression and erasure, but honestly going through Zenz's bullshit so closely makes me want to do the same to the other sources for this, because right now the nonsense he put out there makes me doubt the strength of my previous conclusion.

I'm actually glad you brought it up, because I feel like I've seen at least a couple other pro-China sources that have uncritically reposted the 80%->8.7% correction; it looks just enough like a stupid mistake (haw haw, he moved the decimal point! whatta maroon!) than the bizarre octopus ink it actually is that whoever wrote that China Daily article took the easy way out, and people inclined to believe China Daily just reposted it without question. I certainly was! It's good to actually spot this stuff, in part because it underscores how the Inception style use and reuse of what's honestly a small number of sources doesn't represent some kind of conspiracy on the anyone's part, on either side - just confirmation bias and a tendency not to look a gift horse in the mouth. This is also why the prime movers of either side of the debate are so important to dig into and verify, since they'll pop up everywhere.

The fact that a place with ~1.3% of the population sees ~8.7% of the use of a particular kind of birth control is significant, Zenz's legerdemain aside. As you say, it squares with the results of an ethnic group no longer getting to ignore nationwide birth control standards and therefore being subject to pressure to get their stats in gear. However, it also squares with just... increased availability of birth control plus reduced poverty, and as the article I linked points out the Uyghur population is still growing and indeed growing faster than the Han population. Pressure to conform can manifest as both threats and incentives, and most governments use a mix of both.

Ferrinus
Jun 19, 2003

i'm finding this quite easy, i guess in part because i'm a fast type but also because i have a coherent mental model of the world

Dolphin posted:

more like it doesn't make any sense, it doesn't serve us strategic interests.

Under capitalism, everyone more or less acts rationally based on their personal incentives and resources, but this all adds up to an insane apocalyptic death cult. Just because the outcome of all the world's nations pursuing their individual interests will probably lead to global ruin doesn't mean they won't do it.

Ferrinus
Jun 19, 2003

i'm finding this quite easy, i guess in part because i'm a fast type but also because i have a coherent mental model of the world

THS posted:

barbarism and the mutual ruin of all, as the saying goes

Barbarism equals oligarch power plus the Jokerfication of the countryside.

Ferrinus
Jun 19, 2003

i'm finding this quite easy, i guess in part because i'm a fast type but also because i have a coherent mental model of the world

Herstory Begins Now posted:

The suggestion that cracking down and arresting and sending to re-education camps a significant fraction of the entire muslim population in xinjiang is popular among the muslim population in xinjiang is frankly comical

It's not that wild a claim. American policing is objectively monstrous, and yet despite recent protests and general shifts of the discourse I can still safely say that, among Americans, police enjoy widespread support. Obviously, race plays the decisive role here, but when the police DO brutalize or kill white people the victims are largely assumed to have deserved it or at least acted stupidly such that cop overreaction is at least a little their own fault.

Uyghurs are like 45% of Xinjiang's population (with the runner up clocking in at 40 or so) and longstanding policies of, basically, statewide affirmative action means that they are highly placed in the local government, judiciary, etc. The people getting invited or ordered into reeducation camps are probably the poorest and most rural slice of the region's population, because on one hand they're the most "at risk" of radicalization and on the other hand are the farthest from, and therefore most of need of integration into, the urban labor pool. Between those poor bastards and the actual elite (who you might accuse of being compradors, traitors to their countrymen, whatever) are surely a broad swathe of people who just go to work every day and might feel any which way about how the government treats the poorest and least educated among them.

That is to say, people often approve of policing even if the policing itself causes massive harm to those actually subject to it.

Ferrinus
Jun 19, 2003

i'm finding this quite easy, i guess in part because i'm a fast type but also because i have a coherent mental model of the world

Dolphin posted:

That's not what happened. I posted a random list of sources that I intentionally didn't read and ya'll pick and chose the ones you responded to, which happened to be the ones associated with people you didn't like. You attacked a list of alleged victims because the guy compiling the list said he didn't purport to its accuracy. There was one or two that you had logical objections to, like the study with 8 respondents.

This is extremely misleading. You make it sound like of your giant list of sources, a few were associated with Zenz et all, and people only responded to those. But this implies a pile of legitimate, untainted sources that China defenders deliberately didn't engage with because they had no good answer to them. Where are these other sources?

Ferrinus
Jun 19, 2003

i'm finding this quite easy, i guess in part because i'm a fast type but also because i have a coherent mental model of the world

Dolphin posted:

I think it's about time people started denying the genocide without mention of the United States in their arguments. It isn't a sound argument and makes you all look unreasonable, your entire argument is based on character assassination and some variation of the genetic fallacy. Like no one is arguing we have conclusive info but then to turn around and say you have conclusive proof that all the people alleging rape and other forms of abuse are lying because the United States is bad is pretty :ironicat:

There's unquestionably abuse happening because that's an inevitable side effect of basically any kind of policing. "No one is being mistreated" is a different claim from "a genocide is not being carried out".

Ferrinus
Jun 19, 2003

i'm finding this quite easy, i guess in part because i'm a fast type but also because i have a coherent mental model of the world

Dolphin posted:

More reading of this law:


Okay, so yes, wearing a beard can land you in a reeducation camp, that is established based on the word of the law. The law also implies it can land you in worse, depending on the severity of the beard.

That's not quite what it says. The actual vocational schools/internment centers are only one part of what's going on in Xinjiang, and "criticism or education or legal education" also encompasses, like, a guy coming to your house to lecture you. "Criticism and education" are actually regular parts of Chinese administration way beyond this specific policy; it goes on a lot in the military, for instance.

That said, the "irregular beard" and burqa regulations are clearly there to allow for broad "I know it when I see it" justification for stopping people on the street or going on to harass or arrest them in the tradition of cops everywhere. Fortunately, Chinese cops are on the whole less feral and murderous than ours.

Ferrinus
Jun 19, 2003

i'm finding this quite easy, i guess in part because i'm a fast type but also because i have a coherent mental model of the world

Dolphin posted:

You're right, but he is extremely sensationalist so of course they're going to. But just using mention of his name to dismiss an article that contains other information is bad. And I still haven't heard a decent explanation why Zenz, despite being a wackjob, has to automatically be wrong 100% of the time.

He's often not wrong, just disingenuous and making ultimately meaningless albeit sensationalist claims; see the "net IUD insertions" discussion we had a few pages ago for an example.

Ferrinus
Jun 19, 2003

i'm finding this quite easy, i guess in part because i'm a fast type but also because i have a coherent mental model of the world

Some Guy TT posted:

so has anyone been able to quantify this xinjiang forced labor thing i ask because that talking points been making a big comeback but last time i tried to investigate the sourcing all i could find was an australian paper whose main bit of evidence was i poo poo you not a deleted personal ad where someone said they were looking to sell ughyur labor but did not explicitly say that the ughyurs themselves were also expecting to be paid

It doesn't make sense on its face because prison labor is extremely inefficient and unproductive compared to wage labor, especially wage labor that requires some sort of training and resource investment like electrical work or whatever. Wage labor is obviously still coercive - either you fix my wiring, or the wiring of whoever else buys your labor-power, or you don't get to eat! - but there's no chance in hell the Chinese government is looking to enslave rather than train and indoctrinate the rural populations it's drawing into training centers.

Ferrinus
Jun 19, 2003

i'm finding this quite easy, i guess in part because i'm a fast type but also because i have a coherent mental model of the world

Eugene V. Dubstep posted:

beep boop persecution and punitive labour are irrational therefore China's perfect government would not do them

"Irrational" isn't the same as "contrary to existing incentives". There is a sense in which racism is irrational, but the US state does not uphold white supremacy because it's just so goddamn crazy. Rather, white supremacy is a critical precondition for capitalist exploitation in the US, so our police gleefully butcher members of minority groups in order to discipline the reserve army of labor, instill terror at anyone thinking of resisting, etc. If it didn't benefit us in the short to medium term, we wouldn't do it.

Similarly, the Chinese state derives certain obvious material benefits from the reeducation and indoctrination of previously-marginal populations in Xinjiang, and the spate of terrorism in the region gives China an excuse to ramp up that reeducation and indoctrination from the "natural" way it was happening before (i.e. poverty drives people to learn Mandarin and get jobs in the city on their own, thereby contributing to capitalist profits and to development of the productive forces). However, no one actually benefits from Uyghurs being enslaved or murdered en masse. Furthermore, because Chinese industry is still developing, China doesn't benefit from certain slices of its population to be excluded from waged labor on racial grounds (while the US, which actually has a surplus, does), and unlike America, China didn't premise its development on racial difference in the first place.

Ferrinus
Jun 19, 2003

i'm finding this quite easy, i guess in part because i'm a fast type but also because i have a coherent mental model of the world

Gringostar posted:

on thing that's been bothering me is that while everyone here 100% acknowledges that most (all) western reporting are at minimum tainted by adrian zenz and the us state department and should be looked at with a poo poo load of skepticism no one has talked about how chinese media isn't also tainted as hell when it comes to reporting on issues inside their own boarder as well

that's my main issue ive had with this entire discussion is that there (at least to me) seems to be a double standard of dismissing 100% of western sources (which ill grant we should be dismissing 95% at least with how tainted it's been shown to be) we're at the same time also suppose to believe everything chinese state media is releasing as well?

in short, only trust your fists, the media will never help you

There's a lot of criticism of China's Xinjiang policies based purely off Chinese media, such as an article by an Indian Maoist group that I posted a few pages back. It's just that that criticism largely doesn't allege death camps, mass enslavement, etc, so it just doesn't do it any more for your average China watcher.

Ferrinus
Jun 19, 2003

i'm finding this quite easy, i guess in part because i'm a fast type but also because i have a coherent mental model of the world

THS posted:

i tend to frontload “whataboutism” to slap down any notion of “we have to DO something about this” - maybe im not giving people here enough credit but for americans, every discussion about the abuses of another state needs to begin with the absolute understanding that the US is the great monstrous evil empire of the world, should never be encouraged to sanction or otherwise take action on an issue, and is absolutely notorious for making up poo poo and funding disinformation

it is very easy for discussions in western-centric forums to lose sight of this context, and cspam isn’t totally immune to chauvinism

and it really is a matter of keeping things in context and perspective - and also questioning why we are talking about this atrocity in particular, and not a host of other comparable atrocities occurring elsewhere (because the us sees china as a rising threat and xinjiang can be wielded as a cudgel, yet central african republic or, say, sudan - well - they aren’t a threat, they aren’t covered in the media, and there isn’t a heap of CSPAM discussion about them. let’s be aware of why that is)

i think we have pretty well established this, though, so i have calmed down

The funny thing is we actually CAN do something about this, but it's opposing Western intervention in the Middle East, which, oops, isn't the conclusion we're supposed to draw!

Adbot
ADBOT LOVES YOU

Ferrinus
Jun 19, 2003

i'm finding this quite easy, i guess in part because i'm a fast type but also because i have a coherent mental model of the world

Thorn Wishes Talon posted:

I only post in the Doomsday econ thread so I hope it's okay if I share my two cents here.


We don't know what is really happening in Xinjiang because the Chinese government is refusing to allow independent international journalists and NGOs to go in to investigate and document the practices. That is literally the only reason, and it makes no sense to use it as the basis for hesitating to call it genocide because absence of evidence is not evidence of absence, particularly when the only entity preventing the gathering of said evidence is the Chinese government.

Why are they adopting such a stance of aggressive stonewalling? After all, there has to be nobody in the world who wants to permanently refute these allegations of genocide more than China. Such allegations are terrible for a country's reputation and can hang like a black cloud over any other endeavor they might wish to pursue in the international arena.

People here constantly (and correctly) bash the Biden administration for refusing to allow lawyers into the camps at the US border and generally failing to be much more transparent when it comes to how refugees are treated. But it seems those same people are willing to resort to all sorts of mental gymnastics to avoid holding China to the same standards. Sure, there might be some reluctant admissions that China may be "too heavy handed" or they might be committing a few human rights abuses here and there, but there's a substantial and very noticeable amount of sympathizing with China. Why? What makes China deserve this type of benefit of the doubt? I mean yes, this is the leftist subforum, but when did leftists become fascist sympathizers?


I don't know why there needs to be a consensus on the definition of genocide among posters for there to be moderation, because these forums don't exist in a vacuum. The term has a well-recognized and widely accepted meaning in international circles:


And you know what? We know for a fact that the bolded one is happening. We know because Chinese officials have themselves confirmed half of it — that birth rates amongst Uyghur women in Xinjiang have plummeted. They of course denied that this was due to forced sterilizations, but one must ask if there's a meaningful difference between forced sterilizations, and imposing conditions on these women such that they must avoid getting pregnant at all costs, to the point where many are willing to undergo "voluntary" sterilization if they want to have any hope of meeting the conditions of their release (if they are even given a chance to try getting pregnant in the first place — we don't know if they are allowed to fraternize with men). Now, intent is a requisite of the "genocide" label, so you might ask, is the prevention of births the intent of the Chinese government? Who knows — the Chinese government won't let us independently interview the women ourselves. I'm sure the CPP is loving the fact that these women are learning Chinese and producing widgets instead of pumping out little Uyghur babies, though.

Putting all that aside, those refusing to call the treatment of Uyghurs "genocide" on the basis that "they are just re-education camps" should ask themselves what their reaction would be if the United States repurposed its camps at the border into indoctrination facilities where every incoming refugee must forget their Guatamalan-ness/Costa Rican-ness/Nicaraguan-ness/etc. and instead learn English and the American Way of Life and a set of skills determined by the US government so that they can be a "productive" member of society, before they are allowed into the country. I suspect that people here would be falling over themselves to label it genocide, then, and all these distinctions between real genocide and cultural genocide would be thrown out the window in a heart beat.

At the end of the day what China does is much more than a series of human rights abuses. It is a crime against humanity. Considering this, whether it fits the definition of genocide perfectly or only partially is almost besides the point.

IS China adopting a stance of aggressive stonewalling? I know that UN inspectors are formally allowed in, though they complain of being followed by police. It's not really true that the region is a black box.

Separately, does China has a long history of genocide against the Han people, who have long been subject to childbirth restrictions?

  • 1
  • 2
  • 3
  • 4
  • 5
  • Post
  • Reply