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kiimo posted:Well this is all subjective but let me see if I can tackle that. Maybe the thought process might be that Skyy Moore is always open, like immediately off the line and then again and again and also has gigantic hands (10 1/4) but more importantly uses them to effectively catch everything. He's probably going to be a PPR monster. You watch his tape and you can see moment after moment where you say Mahomes throws it to him right there, and there, and there. His QB in college did not get him the ball like that. He's not Hill but since we're talking about Hill, Hill is smaller than Skyy Moore and so is Hardman? Those guys survived the NFL just fine. I realize Hill is basically one muscle but still his size shouldn't be an issue. edit: Also yeah Jameson might not contribute much if anything this year but if you're like me and have a bad roster and want to build for the future, he's perfect because he wont contribute a ton of points this year (and thus wont affect my draft pick for next year much) but should still be good in the long run while not stopping me from getting another high pick next year (when all the scuttlebutt is saying that next years draft should be loaded). If he falls to my second 1st at #8 I'll be hard pressed to not take him. AAAAA! Real Muenster fucked around with this message at 16:42 on May 24, 2022 |
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May 24, 2022 16:38
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Right I am just guessing, I certainly wanted Jameson above all others in the draft. The Chiefs had their choice of several wide receivers and traded back presumably to still land skyy moore. Of course GMs always say they got their guy but in this case I think it might be true. They rejected Pickens in particular, a guy who is 6'3 so why did they prefer Moore to him? I think it's the separation he routinely gets. Physically he compares pretty well to Steve Smith. 
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May 24, 2022 16:52
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Picking a guy at 6 or 10 in this draft isn't a big difference imo, big tier of whatever for most of the 1st
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May 24, 2022 17:08
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kiimo posted:Well this is all subjective but let me see if I can tackle that. Maybe the thought process might be that Skyy Moore is always open, like immediately off the line and then again and again and also has gigantic hands (10 1/4) but more importantly uses them to effectively catch everything. He's probably going to be a PPR monster. You watch his tape and you can see moment after moment where you say Mahomes throws it to him right there, and there, and there. His QB in college did not get him the ball like that. He's not Hill but since we're talking about Hill, Hill is smaller than Skyy Moore and so is Hardman? Those guys survived the NFL just fine. I realize Hill is basically one muscle but still his size shouldn't be an issue. Counterpoint: Darwin Thompson  To be clear, I understand the positives for Moore. I loved his tape. He is fast and he cuts on a dime. I'm kinda surprised how low his 3 cone and shuttle times were because his tape doesn't show that at all. I'm saying from a dynasty standpoint, he is being overdrafted. Draft position and athletic profile do matter and Skyy Moore was a back of the second round prospect with concerns. Moore's body type isn't really the same as Reek or Steve Smith. You call pull the RAS profile for Steve Smith, but Moore looks thin and I think there are concerns on whether he can put on mass without losing speed. Having said all that, I'm a big believer in get your guy. But I wouldn't take Moore before 1.08 or 1.09 in SF.
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May 24, 2022 17:46
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Well to also be clear I'm not advocating taking him but rather trying to list reasons why he's being overdrafted. This isn't a Darwin situation. Also that size thing seems pretty ridiculous to me in the post Devonta Smith world. Dude is like a 160 pounds soaking wet and almost had a 1000 yards his rookie year. I guess I believe in separation above all else.
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May 24, 2022 19:08
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kiimo posted:Also that size thing seems pretty ridiculous to me in the post Devonta Smith world. Dude is like a 160 pounds soaking wet and almost had a 1000 yards his rookie year. Probably would have broke 1000 yards if he had some weight on him
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May 24, 2022 20:19
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kiimo posted:Well to also be clear I'm not advocating taking him but rather trying to list reasons why he's being overdrafted. This isn't a Darwin situation. I kinda agree with you, but there is a significant difference between the college production of those two. And people were worried about Smith too last year. It was definitely a talking point. But Smith was also a much better prospect than Moore.
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May 24, 2022 22:35
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12 team SF draft I'm in had Pickett 1.01, Willis 1.11, and Ridder 1.12  People are dumb, and hopefully they showcase it during your drafts!
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May 25, 2022 00:22
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Why am I never in these leagues?
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May 25, 2022 00:26
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Sataere posted:You call pull the RAS profile for Steve Smith, but Moore looks thin and I think there are concerns on whether he can put on mass without losing speed.
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May 25, 2022 01:33
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sourdough posted:Picking a guy at 6 or 10 in this draft isn't a big difference imo, big tier of whatever for most of the 1st For sure. I'm always just curious to hear the logic behind why people pick a certain guy at a certain spot. Mostly because I'm just now getting bigger into dynasty and not watching CFB at all. Relying on other interpretations of when and why I should draft a guy and only watching film breakdowns (as opposed to games) is such a foreign concept to me. But so far I really like it. And, to contribute a little bit, I just started a FFPC dynasty team co-managed with my brother, mostly just so we have something to tinker with during the offseason and stop drafting best ball all the drat time.  We were given pick 1.11, which was definitely a bummer for us because we wanted one of the top QBs to attempt to compete right away. We made a few trades and walked away with Lamar at 1.06 (which I found shocking) and Pitts at 1.11. Pretty pleased with everything thus far, except we were on the tail end of a huge WR run in the third round and had to settle for Tua over the guys we wanted at WR like DJ Moore, Diggs, etc.
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May 25, 2022 14:11
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Mock auctions have been live for two weeks and my two initial takeaways: -JT has been going for an average of $76 and the second pick has been going for an average of $64. That's LT level separation. I'm not sure JT has anywhere nead LT level ceiling - The WR2 market crash leaves juicier values than ever before, and this is from a guy who based his whole auction strategy around counting on the WR2 crash. I've seen Jeudy, Mooney, Sutton, Waddle, terry, DJM, and many more regularly go for around $3. Study wr2s and fall in love with a couple for a really cheap auction steal that makes you really happy.
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May 27, 2022 03:44
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Drunk Nerds posted:Mock auctions have been live for two weeks and my two initial takeaways: @drunknerds you are on the clock
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May 27, 2022 05:22
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This Tommy Pham fight has briefly woken fantasy football twitter from its slumber. Like a gopher waking up in midwinter, looking around lazily, and drifting back into hibernation for a few more months.
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May 28, 2022 19:33
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The tweet showing him winning the finals by 6 when his kicker got 17, shameful and why kickers should be banned.
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May 29, 2022 01:25
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You are receiving this broadcast as a dream...We are transmitting from the year one nine... nine nine ...You are receiving this broadcast in order t
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Pain of Mind posted:The tweet showing him winning the finals by 6 when his kicker got 17, shameful and why kickers should be banned. It's probably because I've been hitting best ball so heavily (already) this offseason, but I just can't really engage in any format with a kicker anymore. Defenses are pretty boring as well, but at least you routinely benefit from having a decent defense that continually produces turnovers. And it doesn't seem like a complete crapshoot finding a decent D. I just wish the one league I'm in with defense gave points for 4th down stops.
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May 29, 2022 02:09
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Yesterday, at least 4 10 team mock salary cap drafts filled on Yahoo. I'm excited!
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May 31, 2022 14:39
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Finished our FFPC TriFlex Dynasty startup draft if anyone is curious. PPR + TE Premium Our team is Cement Surfboard. We were assigned pick 11, traded up to the 1.06 because Lamar was still on board and gave up our 2023 1st round and got a 2023 3rd back in the deal as well. Flipped the 2023 3rd to trade up later in the draft. This is our roster  We have all 2023 picks except our 1st rounder. Very happy with the draft. We're obviously pretty weak at RB but with Pollard and Gainwell I'm not terribly concerned considering it's full PPR. Hit on the very end of our talent tiers in R1 (Lamar and Pitts) but missed hard in rounds 3 and then 4. Wanted Diggs but settled for Tua, then wanted Davante but settled for Treylon Burks. Still not totally sold on Burks returning his ADP this season but we're hoping he grows into a true WR1. A few other thoughts: absolutely stoked about our TE depth. Pitts is obviously set and forget the whole time he's healthy and both Irv Smith and Tonyan should be great fill ins and flex options in a pinch, considering this is TEP. The one pick I'm really not sure on is Badie. Chris Evans was our other thought, but we liked the ceiling on Badie; if he hits, he hits huge. Justice Hill doesn't look good and if Dobbins or Gus Edwards miss time we're hoping Badie is able to answer the call. Feel free to be critical, the offseason is boring as hell as is. fennesz fucked around with this message at 05:30 on Jun 6, 2022 |
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Jun 6, 2022 05:28
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fennesz posted:Finished our FFPC TriFlex Dynasty startup draft if anyone is curious. PPR + TE Premium I am not a fan of it, it feels kind of risky to me since you need a bunch of players to all hit their ceiling (Tua, Hill, Pitts, Burks) to be competitive. It looks like you are below average at QB, substantially below average at RB though Pollard could pay off in a few years, solid at WR but not exceptional, and above average at TE with the potential for a lot of variance due to Atlanta needing to rebuild. Without trying to figure out the other teams in your league since the roster board makes that unreadable, I would put your team in the bottom 6, which is more painful since somehow it cost you next years first to end up like that. Then again, I am wrong about everything so you could very well slaughter your league, what do I know. Pain of Mind fucked around with this message at 02:05 on Jun 7, 2022 |
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Jun 7, 2022 01:59
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Fwiw I was thinking about the same, team looks very weak at RB and ok with depth at WR but without any surefire set and forget studs. Tua as an every week QB2 is scary. Losing the 2023 1st is rough. Even if say Tyreek's production doesn't drop trading Mahomes for Tua and Burks is a WR1 as a rookie, you're still probably going to struggle to be a top tier contender with those RBs.
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Jun 7, 2022 02:26
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Pain of Mind posted:I am not a fan of it, it feels kind of risky to me since you need a bunch of players to all hit their ceiling (Tua, Hill, Pitts, Burks) to be competitive. It looks like you are below average at QB, substantially below average at RB though Pollard could pay off in a few years, solid at WR but not exceptional, and above average at TE with the potential for a lot of variance due to Atlanta needing to rebuild. Without trying to figure out the other teams in your league since the roster board makes that unreadable, I would put your team in the bottom 6, which is more painful since somehow it cost you next years first to end up like that. Then again, I am wrong about everything so you could very well slaughter your league, what do I know. Appreciate the feedback! I think I mentioned it before, but I have experience with redraft, keeper leagues, and I've been doing best ball pretty hard so I'm always open to feedback about dynasty anything. Or not, no big deal. And, yes, the UI on FFPC completely sucks rear end...but here are the other rosters  Given how I value the various rosters (again, mostly from a best ball/redraft standpoint) based off of the draft alone I'd say we have a decent chance to be top 4. Of course that relies on guys hitting their ceiling. Pitts, Tua, Tyreek, Burks, everybody. The one early pick I'll give you being really sketchy, especially year one is Treylon Burks. We're just hoping he gets a decent snap % and target share and hopefully the full PPR format takes care of the rest. Same for Pitts. The guy will be on the field constantly because he does everything extremely well and that'll eventually translate to targets and points. As for the other dudes; Tua now has Tyreek to throw to and an offensive line that's hopefully not pure garbage. Brian Daboll is HC for the Giants and we're hoping that translates to Danny Dimes being something like a REALLY poor man's Josh Allen. Ok, even that's a stretch, but we're hoping we only need him as a bye week fill this season and maybe can develop into something resembling Mariota but, you know, better. The same pretty much applies to our WR corps. We really wanted positional advantage at QB and TE because we feel really confident at assessing WR and RB talent and I think we've more or less done that. Would I prefer to have Josh Allen, Herbert, JT, Justin Jefferson and Ja'Marr Chase? Yep. But considering we left the first round with 2 guys we considered tier 1 after being assigned the second worst pick in the startup draft: I'm drat happy with it. The other roster I think is definitely better than ours, at least in the short term, is Dynasty Depot. They had a massive amount of value fall to them throughout the draft and there wasn't a whole lot we could do about it. sourdough posted:Fwiw I was thinking about the same, team looks very weak at RB and ok with depth at WR but without any surefire set and forget studs. Tua as an every week QB2 is scary. Losing the 2023 1st is rough. Even if say Tyreek's production doesn't drop trading Mahomes for Tua and Burks is a WR1 as a rookie, you're still probably going to struggle to be a top tier contender with those RBs. Yeah we more or less went in with the knowledge that we underrate RBs compared to pretty much everyone else. Our logic is that if you get a Pitts, or even a Lamar to a lesser extent, they should be around the league for a drat long time. So you could build teams around them for 8+ years. But if we went JT and/or Najee our window to win was more or less 1, 2 or 3 years absolute tops. fennesz fucked around with this message at 02:41 on Jun 7, 2022 |
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Jun 7, 2022 02:36
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Dynalucker 2 and adam warlock look the best to me. Non productive struggle, kicker lives matter, and dynasty depot also look good. Team b/j is kinda intriguing too.
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Jun 7, 2022 05:12
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James Starks has three 2023 1st round picks and three 2nds as well. He's gonna have a hell of a draft. Are you doing salaries? Taking Pitts 11th overall seems absurd to me. You said it's a TE premium scoring league though... how much of a premium? e. Zeke is RB27? Dang.
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Jun 8, 2022 01:00
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TE premium or not it’s still SF and two flex spots making TEs not that valuable. Unless it’s like 5ppr or something.
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Jun 8, 2022 03:01
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Oh my bad, it's full PPR (1.0) and TEP (1.5). Everything else is fairly standard though. 4 points for passing TD and 6 for everything else, etc. If you think that's wild, check out some Main Event draft boards from last year. Waller was going at pick 2-12 overall. e: Googled a bit and found one of Evan Silva's from 2021 (he picked 1.03). Dude looks like he smashed that draft to me https://myffpc.com/FFPCDraftBoard.aspx?refid=A09-680778DDC165&refid=A09-680778DDC165 Leperflesh posted:James Starks has three 2023 1st round picks and three 2nds as well. He's gonna have a hell of a draft. Are you doing salaries? Not entirely sure what you mean by salaries. Each draft, including startup, is just a straight up snake draft. Rookie drafts included. Otherwise, waivers are FAAB, yeah. And, yeah, I'm still shocked by Zeke's ADP in best ball too. I literally drafted him in a best ball 5 minutes ago at pick 48. Like...he was playing hurt all last year and was RB5. In dynasty I get fading him slightly because he's "old" for a RB but in best ball? Yeah I'm taking him any time I don't need have another pressing need in that spot. fennesz fucked around with this message at 05:38 on Jun 8, 2022 |
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Jun 8, 2022 05:26
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Zeke is cooked. He has not been the best RB on his team for 2 years. In a dynasty league he has little value when he likely has a maximum of 2-3 declining years left.
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Jun 8, 2022 06:07
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fennesz posted:Oh my bad, it's full PPR (1.0) and TEP (1.5). Everything else is fairly standard though. 4 points for passing TD and 6 for everything else, etc. Salaries is how you keep owners from keeping the same good players forever in dynasty: their salaries rise, and everyone has to keep their roster under a salary cap. If you don't do salaries or maximum contracts or something along those lines, someone who picked up Mahomes 143rd in his rookie year gets to keep him for his entire career.
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Jun 8, 2022 06:34
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Pain of Mind posted:Zeke is cooked. He has not been the best RB on his team for 2 years. In a dynasty league he has little value when he likely has a maximum of 2-3 declining years left. Came to post this. Pollard is clearly the better back at this point. No one should be excited to own Zeke, especially in dynasty.
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Jun 8, 2022 07:54
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I agree Zeke is more or less a short term investment in dynasty when compared to a lot of guys around the same spot ADP. The only thing about Pollard is he SUCKS at pass blocking so he'll likely never be a workhorse back in his own right. And it just so happens that Zeke is one of the best pass blocking RB's I've ever watched so it makes sense, strictly from that perspective alone, that he gets such a huge snap %. Leperflesh posted:Salaries is how you keep owners from keeping the same good players forever in dynasty: their salaries rise, and everyone has to keep their roster under a salary cap. If you don't do salaries or maximum contracts or something along those lines, someone who picked up Mahomes 143rd in his rookie year gets to keep him for his entire career. Ah, got it. Nope no salaries here then! I figured I didn't have that quite right but as this is my first dynasty league wasn't sure. One of my other redraft leagues transitioned to keepers in the last year but we give up picks instead of salary on guys. Though I do have my choice of Deebo (7th round), Burrow (4th round), and JK Dobbins (10th round) to keep in that league. 
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Jun 8, 2022 15:03
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Free zero QB, ten flex spots only, Austin Powers-themed best ball league needs a few more https://sleeper.app/i/YdEGneNMVbMa
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Jun 17, 2022 15:50
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Drunk Nerds posted:Free zero QB, ten flex spots only, Austin Powers-themed best ball league needs a few more Needs just one more. Slow draft
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Jun 18, 2022 02:00
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Does anyone thing Reek will be worth his draft value? I just cannot trust Tua at all, even though on paper he should feast with Waddle and Hill.
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Jun 18, 2022 04:26
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RCarr posted:Does anyone thing Reek will be worth his draft value? I just cannot trust Tua at all, even though on paper he should feast with Waddle and Hill. Where's he going?
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Jun 18, 2022 04:38
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sourdough posted:Where's he going? He just went 22nd in a draft I was in.
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Jun 18, 2022 04:58
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RCarr posted:Does anyone thing Reek will be worth his draft value? I just cannot trust Tua at all, even though on paper he should feast with Waddle and Hill. It's not Tua I don't trust, it's his o-line and coaching staff. I'm pretty risk averse, though. If I had to spend a lot of draft capital on a WR, I'd probably only make safe bets (i.e. Davante, Chase, Jefferson) or dip lower than Reek for someone like Pittman (who I expect perform better with Ryan at QB) or even deeper for someone like Bateman (who is going to fill a vacuum left by Hollywood). van fem fucked around with this message at 05:04 on Jun 18, 2022 |
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Jun 18, 2022 05:02
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RCarr posted:Does anyone thing Reek will be worth his draft value? I just cannot trust Tua at all, even though on paper he should feast with Waddle and Hill. I've got him going right around the end of the 2nd round as WR8. Seems like a pretty fair discount for a player that's finished WR6, WR2, [redacted], and WR1 over the last four years. If Mike McDaniel is going to run a Kyle Shanahan style offense, then you would expect both WRs to be seeing easy completions in space for YAC opportunities. Chase Edmonds, Gesicki, and Cedrick Wilson don't strike me as serious threats to their targets either. My only concerns are: Tyreek's age (28 isn't exactly old for a WR, but it isn't young either), Tua might be bad enough to hold everyone back, Waddle might end up the WR1a, and The reworked line might still be kinda bad (but probably not bottom 5 bad). Waddle is going WR18 around pick 38 and Tua is going at QB18 according to the last time I looked at the ADP on FantasyPros. So, obviously the consensus is either way too high on Tyreek and Waddle, or way too low on Tua.
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Jun 18, 2022 05:03
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Ayudo posted:I've got him going right around the end of the 2nd round as WR8. I think Reek and Mahomes’ (and maybe Kelce’s too but he could end up having an amazing season if he is the guy all year) value both really took a huge hit with that trade. I’m avoiding both of them even though I’m rooting for both of them to do well.
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Jun 18, 2022 05:06
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RCarr posted:I think Reek and Mahomes’ (and maybe Kelce’s too but he could end up having an amazing season if he is the guy all year) value both really took a huge hit with that trade. I’m avoiding both of them even though I’m rooting for both of them to do well. Honestly, this seems like the kind of situation where both Tyreek and Waddle will be going right next to each other by end of August. I'd probably take Waddle today at current ADP, but might consider Tyreek in August if the distance between the two has narrowed by then.
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Jun 18, 2022 05:10
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RCarr posted:He just went 22nd in a draft I was in. I haven't done almost any research/thinking, but that's quite a bit too rich for me. I'll be happy with him as a lower WR2, so I guess I'm not going to get him anywhere. I'm much more uncertain about Davante Adams. He doesn't feel like a safe WR1, but the upside and target share should be there, right? He feels like a dude I'll still be happy with as my WR1, but like is he closer to overall WR#1 or a backend top 12 guy? I hate when high end dudes move cause it introduces so much variance into their likely outcomes. Like, AJ Brown, where the hell should I draft him??
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Jun 18, 2022 05:11
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Gesicki, Waddle and Tyreek to feed in a Shanahan offense with a question mark offensive line. My bones don't like anyone on that team in the first 4 rounds.
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Jun 18, 2022 05:45
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