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Whoreson Welles
Mar 4, 2015

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abelwingnut posted:

sorry for the derail on all of this btw! just looking for tips as fantasy football feels like a whole different planet nowadays.
This hits home real hard. My keeper league took a pause last year because of the unpredictability of Covid and we just did a one-off redraft. Now we’re starting the keeper league back up and swapped out the guy who never really participated with an old friend who doesn’t watch the NFL anymore but likes to banter and his buddy is going to help him draft and set rosters. We selected keepers and I’m looking at available players and just feel like I don’t know or remember half these dudes anymore or how they performed last season. Time is wack, yo.

Anyway here is my predicament: I’m 5th pick in a 10-team .5PPR but also have the 12th overall due to trades carrying over. All the elite RBs are kept or will be picked by the time I’m up so it leaves me with a handful of rookie or 1-to-2-year vet RBs to choose from.

Najee Harris (will probably get taken but listing him anyway)
Antonio Gibson (same)
CEH
Chris Carson
DMont
JK Dobbins
Josh Jacobs
Miles Sanders
Darrell Henderson

Right now I would love to see Gibson fall to me and then hopefully get Dobbins or Henderson with #12. CEH feels like a trap due to the backfield and redzone work, and I can’t bring myself to take Fumble Machine Chris Carson again. Is there a strong case for any of these guys or is this the group that you just grit your teeth and take the good with the bad?

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Whoreson Welles
Mar 4, 2015

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Yeah I didn’t bring up available receivers because I’m tired of being one of those guys who doesn’t luck out on an elite RB to keep for several years. The problem is none of these guys are likely one of those yet unless they really establish themselves this season but due to our keeper point system, taking them in the first or second round already starts them with a high value that they probably won’t live up to.

I’m keeping Kittle, McLaurin, Robert Woods, and Chase Edmonds which is why I’m in the hunt for an RB pair so badly. Available high WRs are Justin Jefferson, Amari, CeeDee, ARob, Mike Evans, DJ Moore.

Whoreson Welles
Mar 4, 2015

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Sataere posted:

Reaching for value is a good way to end up mediocre.
I’m writing this 15 times on my draft sheet.

Whoreson Welles
Mar 4, 2015

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kiimo posted:

Almost a week. Monday TO Sunday

Is there no max time?

Whoreson Welles
Mar 4, 2015

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Yeah that team is the definition of “solid” in my book.




Also please note I’ve come in last in my keeper league the last two seasons.

Whoreson Welles
Mar 4, 2015

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So I think I’ve finally come to terms with my internal struggle that in my keeper league first round I’ll either wind up with Najee Harris, Antonio Gibson, or Justin Jefferson and that seems just A-OK.

Whoreson Welles
Mar 4, 2015

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My keeper league drafts Saturday morning and at this point I’m just going to let the fantasy gods take the wheel.

Whoreson Welles
Mar 4, 2015

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AAAAA! Real Muenster posted:

My redraft league that is keeping keepers for the first time this year is drafting tonight. Would it be dirty of me to draft Etienne really late then stash him on IR all year so I could keep him for cheap next year?

Edit: we keep for two rounds higher the following year.

I’m honestly considering this in my 10-team keeper league and hoping no one else has the same plan. We have a draft position-based value system, basically #1 overall pick is worth 170 keeper points, last pick is worth 1. It gets a little more complicated than that but if I could get him in the last handful of rounds and have a skilled RB2 keeper worth like 20 points going into the 2022-23 season it would be pretty dope.

P.S. I guarantee you at least one of my leaguemates has the same plan

Whoreson Welles
Mar 4, 2015

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Dobbins injury came after I drafted him this morning.

Cool. Cool.

Whoreson Welles
Mar 4, 2015

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Rip to me for taking him with my second 2nd round pick I had gotten from a trade last season. Sucks for the guy, hope he can come back strong but ACLs are tough.

Whoreson Welles
Mar 4, 2015

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I was feeling relatively good about this draft Saturday morning until the Dobbins injury. I have some rare brain disease where I love taking handcuffs for RBs that other people own.

10-team keeper league, 0.5 PPR, 1 Flex slot

QB: Aaron Rodgers
RB: Najee Harris, JK Dobbins, Chase Edmonds (K), Darrell Henderson, AJ Dillon, Tony Pollard
WR: Terry McLaurin (K), Robert Woods (K), Mike Evans, Deebo Samuel, Kenny Gollday, TY Hilton
TE: George Kittle (K), Robert Tonyan
D/ST: Washington
K: Jason Sanders

I absolutely messed up taking Tonyan with my 3rd to last pick not realizing it was my 3rd to last. I was in a trade last year that netted me an extra 2nd round pick that I unfortunately used on Dobbins, so it left me one less late rounder which I wanted to use on Trey Lance.

Whoreson Welles
Mar 4, 2015

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buffalo all day posted:

idk i love lance but what would you even do with him, you drafted aaron rodgers. i guess you could say the same for Tonyan. your RBs look good enough with Najee + DHenderson, with Dillon and Pollard as longer term upside.

I'd drop TY, he has a nasty disc issue that's going to keep him out for weeks. think about going for some upside at WR

Yeah mostly wanted Lance as a late-round keeper. T.Y. was late too so I’m not too broken up if I end up dropping him but for now he can chill in IR with my poor boy J.K. I am going to need to be on top of my FAAB game the first few weeks to make up for it.

Whoreson Welles
Mar 4, 2015

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I dropped like 4% FAAB on Ty’son Williams after drafting Dobbins Saturday morning before the games. I doubt he’s going to do anything but my RB bench after Najee Harris is

Chase Edmonds
Darrell Henderson
AJ Dillon
Tony Pollard

Edmonds and/or Henderson will probably work out to be serviceable RB2s but what can I say, I’m like a doomsday prepper with RBs. Except all my doomsday supplies are high-sodium deli meats and dry Captain Crunch.

Whoreson Welles
Mar 4, 2015

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Who the hell is saying Kamara at 3 is a bad idea? 3rd pick this year is pretty much just take whichever of the four or so remaining elite RBs you feel good about and gently caress the haters.

Whoreson Welles
Mar 4, 2015

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Nature is healing.

Whoreson Welles
Mar 4, 2015

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I don’t want to bash anyone who drafted him and I’ll preface this by saying I’ve come in last two years running in my keeper league but:

Can someone sell me on D’Andre Swift? I get he’s talented but aren’t the Lions in a real bad spot for RBs? He got taken pretty high in two of my leagues and I just can’t wrap my head around it.

Whoreson Welles
Mar 4, 2015

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So I drafted Dobbins as my RB2 the morning of the day he got injured, panic grabbed Ty’son that evening, and now it looks like I maybe have my RB2 back?

All before the first kickoff. This season is going to be wild.

Whoreson Welles
Mar 4, 2015

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RCarr posted:

Also lol if you haven’t looked at your lineup 250 times since the draft.

That reminds me! I haven’t checked my lineup since 8:42am!

*sees Mike Evans in WR2 slot*

:smith:

Whoreson Welles
Mar 4, 2015

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Soul Glo posted:

I'm playing against Gronk this week and I started Mike Evans :(

Gonna need a big big day from rest of my dudes.

Same but against AB. Now I’m overthinking the rest of my roster.

Whoreson Welles
Mar 4, 2015

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You all can ignore this but I just need to salt/dramapost so I can sleep tonight. I’m on the left.



I’ve come in last in this keeper league two years in a row, and this will probably be year three. I don’t understand how anyone can be this bad at fantasy football. I do the Beersheets and Fantasypros and all the experts and weekly articles. I’ve done research, I’ve “gone with my gut”, I just can’t seem to form a reliable team. Every year it feels like my picks all bust and even playing the waivers isn’t enough to supplement my team. Am I just doomed? Bad? Unlucky?

I know it’s only Week 1 and means nothing but holy poo poo what an absolutely demoralizing start to the season.

Thanks for coming to my TED Talk. I’m not giving up on the season and maybe I’ll be back here in a few weeks gloating about my team but I just needed to vent.

Whoreson Welles
Mar 4, 2015

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Lol I think I lost by so much that it broke the app and made ESPN think I almost won.

Whoreson Welles
Mar 4, 2015

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I’m keeping Lamb in that scenario. Najee’s numbers will come. Dude’s workload is insane, he will definitely thrive against the lower half of run defenses even with Pitt’s awful O-line.

Whoreson Welles
Mar 4, 2015

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Chef Boyardeez Nuts posted:

Anyone in an ESPN league needs to load the Watson Trade Assistant immediately



What a deal!

One of my leaguemates proposed one year we do a small money league where you must send and accept one IBM Watson trade every week.

Whoreson Welles
Mar 4, 2015

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Zohn posted:

I love Monday mornings where all of my guys have played and I have a small lead, but my opponent has Aaron Jones left tonight. Especially fun looking at all the guys on my bench who outscored my starters.

I’m pulling for Rodgers to steal all the Aaron Jones points tonight. Hopefully we both get what we want. I’m down 36 points because I had the MIA kicker and WFT D/ST combine for 1 while my opponent had Pats D/ST and his kicker combine for 30.

At least I got to watch Najee straight up hip toss a dude.

https://twitter.com/steelers/status/1439644683362344961?s=20

Whoreson Welles
Mar 4, 2015

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the_american_dream posted:

I have Alvin kamara



That’s the end of the post.

Goondolences

Whoreson Welles
Mar 4, 2015

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Despite an amazing Rodgers performance, lost by 3 because WFT D/ST and Jason Sanders combined for 1 point.

Fantasy football taketh away, and fantasy football taketh away again. 0-2 down but not out.

Whoreson Welles
Mar 4, 2015

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:five:

Whoreson Welles
Mar 4, 2015

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Woods is killing me and it’s wild that now Mike Evans probably has a better floor because Woods spit in Stafford’s cereal or something.

Whoreson Welles
Mar 4, 2015

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ESPN win percentages must use the same insane machine learning that their IBM Watson trade suggestions does. Last week I was down 36 with only Rodgers to play on Monday night, win percentage was 99-1. Rodgers throws one touchdown late in the first, doesn’t move the needle. He throws another at the end of the second, it goes to maybe 5% for me.

He throws one halfway through the third, suddenly it’s like 92-8 in my favor? I was still down probably 14 points with barely over a quarter left so idk what this thing was smoking. Did it think he was just going to continue throwing TD’s every five minutes without question?

Long story short I lost by 3. Thanks WFT and Jason Sanders for combining for 1 point last week.

Whoreson Welles
Mar 4, 2015

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Bellmaker posted:

Just need 15 from CeeDee Lamb and Miles Sanders in .5PPR...

I think you’re safe. Just hopefully most of those points come from Sanders because I need Dak to keep it under 22 to secure my first win of the season.

Whoreson Welles
Mar 4, 2015

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SouthShoreSamurai posted:

I need Devonta Smith and Miles Sanders to outscore Hurts by 3 pts. This game is gonna be weird to watch.

That’s always the worst when your players coincide with your opponent. Like having a WR and your opponent has the QB, or you have a D/ST and your opponent has players from the other team, so when they score it comes with extra pain.

kiimo posted:

I picked up Peyton Barber as a Jacobs sub and then started Ty'Son Williams over him.

You would think I would have learned my lesson about starting Ravens running backs last season

That was my b, had to finally start him this week. He’s going right back to the bench once Henderson gets healthy.

Whoreson Welles
Mar 4, 2015

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poly and open-minded posted:

If Dak could score 12 pts or less today, it would be cool

Co-signed

Whoreson Welles
Mar 4, 2015

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Wow, any of those Dak close call TDs go through and I would have lost. Ended up winning by 1.5 to go 1-2 on the season. Feels a lot better than 0-3.

Whoreson Welles
Mar 4, 2015

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dkj posted:

Someone in one of my public leagues traded Lamb and Najee for Tyreek Hill. Then the guy getting Hill said he didn’t see that Najee was part of the deal. Which means he genuinely thought someone was just trading him Hill for Lamb straight up lol.

Also, offered someone Jamar Chase for Edmunds, hoping they accept. And thinking of offering DJ Moore for Chris Carson in another league which seems fair to me.

I have like zero sympathy for those people who bitch about bad trades after they’ve made them, especially ones with outlandish excuses. “Oh I was trying to hit Decline and sneezed and happen to hit Accept and then Confirm and then Confirm again. I also didn’t realize I sneezed and hit Accept until several hours later.”

Whoreson Welles
Mar 4, 2015

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Yeah, dude should have taken the four seconds to make sure it says Julio Jones, WR, ATL. Like the info is right there, I don’t care how excited you get that you found a WR1 on FA.

Pretty much the only mistake I think worth forgiving is someone somehow accidentally dropping a player and then immediately, I mean within 30 seconds, texting the commish to explain and have it undone. Bad trades, dumb pickups, all of that stuff has clear information right next to the players name of what you are getting.

Whoreson Welles
Mar 4, 2015

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Chernabog posted:

Somebody dropped Golladay. Is there something I'm missing or should I try to grab him? Would probably drop Gainwell.

I have him, have yet to start him. He’s one of those guys where the talent is there and I’d rather him than some other waiver wire garbage, but my starters do well enough that I’ll likely just have him riding the pine all season and then go “why did I keep him on my team this year” in week 17.

Whoreson Welles
Mar 4, 2015

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Yeah you’re basically gimping yourself for the next 3-4 weeks in hopes that you’ll be beastly afterwards, which is still just like a 55% chance CMC doesn’t immediately injure himself again anyway.

Pass.

Whoreson Welles
Mar 4, 2015

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26 points alone is insane for one IDP position. Maybe he was tackling players so goddamn much they just thought it was easier to credit him with a tackle after every play and go back and review the tape later.

Whoreson Welles
Mar 4, 2015

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drat really? Maybe the scoring is different. I only play in one IDP league and usual scores across those positions ranges from 5-15. Each week do you see two or three guys hit the 20s but most of them stay well below 18.

All in all I’m not a huge fan of IDP, to me it’s just as (if not more) random than having a D/ST and K.

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Whoreson Welles
Mar 4, 2015

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Davis. Going to be an ugly game but he’ll run on volume alone. Patrick isn’t bad either but might have a tough matchup vs BAL.

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