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Halisnacks
Jul 18, 2009
Is there a consensus on what would constitute a good vs bad result for Labour in the local elections? And if there is a bad result, is Starmer at all vulnerable to a leadership challenge?

Were a leadership challenge to take place, I think he’d have a way harder time seeing off a challenger than Corbyn had with Smith, but I have no sense of whether the PLP would actually trigger such a contest with sufficiently bad results in the local elections.

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Halisnacks
Jul 18, 2009

Jaeluni Asjil posted:

I'd be surprised. The mega excuses:

(1) Corbyn wrecked labour because of his anti-semitic, racist, terrorist loving, free broadband (despite the party now being far more anti-semitic having booted out leftwing Jewish members, kow-towing to BoD, far more racist having refused to take to task those proven in the leaked report to be racist bullies and all on the right of the party, terrorist loving Starmer - just because murder is committed by people in a state uniform doesn't mean they're not terrorists, free broadband - doesn't seem so daft now does it after over a year of WFH / school from home, many organisations moving to a more permanent use of online conferencing etc instead of carbon-burning flights etc, and lockdowns.

(2) Johnson and the vaccine bounce - maybe a bit

(3) Corbynistas refuse to back Starmer and insist on either voting for other parties or not voting, and it's all their fault despite the other lot refusing to back Corbyn for 5 years. <IMHO> If the Labour party is to become a party worth voting for in the next general election, it needs to be torn down now and forced to face up to the error of its ways to give it 2-3 years to rebuild </IMHO>

(3) It's too cold to vote

(4) It's too hot to vote

(5) Pluto turned retrograde on April 28th - lasting until October:

The long-term, lasting change in the starry sky is now the beginning of Pluto's retrograde, starting on April 28th, 2021 and which lasts until October 7th, 2021. Pluto represents power, abuse of power and profound transformations that we have to go through.

(6) Laura Kuennsberg loves Boris

Every BBC political article ever


are already well and underway.

So one of those situations where Starmer won’t be held accountable if the Party does terribly, but will be given all the accolades if they somehow outperform expectations. Cool.

Halisnacks
Jul 18, 2009
Any reason I shouldn’t be voting for Siân Berry ahead of Sadiq tomorrow?

Halisnacks
Jul 18, 2009
I actually don’t think Starmer will last that much longer. I think these results undermine him too critically, and leave him with too much baggage, even for the centrist/right part of the party. That BBC interview is not an artefact of someone who will hold their position for years to come.

His brand is now: (1) can’t communicate a vision; and (2) turns off voters.

If he manages to hold on, it will be because the Labour right can’t identify better options. While I know their number one priority is to keep the left out of power, they know their best shot of doing that is to offer something that can be spun as electoral success.

Halisnacks
Jul 18, 2009
So Labour could not even manage to get a single frontbench spokesperson on Marr three days after the largest set of elections until the next GE, one of the few times people are more clued into Westminster politics?

They are failing even by their own measure of “competent” managerialism.

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Halisnacks
Jul 18, 2009
So in the timeline where 2019 still happened, but RLB beat Starmer for the leadership - how would Labour have fared this last week?

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