|
Konomex posted:Yet further evidence for my 'Morrison has early onset Alzheimer's' campaign. There's also the fact the fuel excise is, for better or worse, effectively a (very narrow) carbon tax. While it's incredibly regressive, once prices get over a certain point people start having to either demand higher wages, or drive less - either by substituting some trips with other modes of transport, or forgoing the trip entirely. Hell, I've been dunking on people opposing a bike path in my area by suggesting they look at petrol prices.
|
#
?
Mar 30, 2022 00:59
|
|
|
|
| # ? Apr 27, 2024 13:16 |
|
|
With how good electric bikes & scooters have become it's only a matter of time before that becomes a serious mode of transport and more infrastructure is required They are already a bit of a nuisance on bike paths given their huge speed advantage & relatively loving clueless operators (comparing a cyclist who can go 30km/h+ to a doofus on an e-scooter)
|
|
#
?
Mar 30, 2022 01:21
|
|
|
froglet posted:There's also the fact the fuel excise is, for better or worse, effectively a (very narrow) carbon tax. The future of fuel excise tax is a can of worms because it's going to shrink as electric vehicle uptake increases. Most likely scenario is that we move to some kind of distance based road levy but this again is regressive as disadvantaged people have to travel further for work etc. But we will need to maintain taxation currently collected by fuel excise, whilst not discouraging electric vehicle uptake, and somehow recognising that the poorer people will have difficulty in moving to electric cars. Maybe some kind of increase to fuel excise with a rebate based on income. Or a distance levy that factors in income.
|
|
#
?
Mar 30, 2022 01:28
|
|
|
Konomex posted:Yet further evidence for my 'Morrison has early onset Alzheimer's' campaign. theyre not stupid the entire purpose is a rear guard action while capital is ripping the copper out of the walls. the news media are the stupid ones, a bunch of ignorant stenographers who learned their trade from the idiots preceding them
|
|
#
?
Mar 30, 2022 01:36
|
|
|
norp posted:With how good electric bikes & scooters have become it's only a matter of time before that becomes a serious mode of transport and more infrastructure is required I just bought an ebike and rode it to the office today. It's great. Can't recommend it enough. Also being able to Griff Tannen unpowered cyclists at the lights is good.
|
|
#
?
Mar 30, 2022 01:42
|
|
|
 the most terrifying elden ring boss
|
|
#
?
Mar 30, 2022 01:49
|
|
|
norp posted:With how good electric bikes & scooters have become it's only a matter of time before that becomes a serious mode of transport and more infrastructure is required If they get much more popular I don't think multi use trails where they mix with pedestrians/ dogs/ kids etc. will be safe My pre pandemic commute trail was getting pretty bad, there's things to learn when cycling on a path with others and a high speed e-vehicle is probably not a good place to start I kinda feel like they should be on the roads, which means we need better bike lanes etc.
|
|
#
?
Mar 30, 2022 01:53
|
|
|
Bargearse posted:loving of course they are
|
|
#
?
Mar 30, 2022 01:55
|
|
|
Playing around with the election calculator on ABC: https://www.abc.net.au/news/elections/federal/2022/guide/calculator And if you feed in a reasonable scenario from all the latest polling it's entirely possible both Frydenberg and Dutton lose their seats. Who's the heir apparent if that happens? Most of the rest of the recognisable cabinet members are either senators or retiring.
|
|
#
?
Mar 30, 2022 02:43
|
|
|
freebooter posted:Playing around with the election calculator on ABC: It's time for Tony to return to parliament.
|
|
#
?
Mar 30, 2022 02:50
|
|
|
My friend built me an E-Bike since i moved to the inner west and I was using those Lime rental bikes to get around (usually walking 5min in the wrong direction to get one only to find it damaged when I got there) and its honestly the sickest way to get around. mine is VERY ILLEGAL because it has a throttle for motor control and our government are loving stupid. Mandating that they can only be pedal assist creates a nice little market for Bosch to sell their bikes and keep cheaper (read: hackable) bikes out of the market and out of reach of others. cops dont really seem to give a gently caress at the moment but im sure as they become more popular they will start paying attention to them. but yeah my commute to Homebush via car is 15-20min if I avoid the toll roads, if I ride my e-bike it'll be about 30min along the bike routes (longer route too) we absolutely need more bike infrastructure too. even where its pretty decent like around here/the city bike lanes kinda just start and finish in weird spots and you have to really plan your route ahead of time if you want to stick to the bike lanes. the narrower streets that are busy I tend to get up on the footpath and just cruise along at regular-push-bike speeds to avoid hitting someone. the bike route to my office is an extra 5km vs just going down parramatta rd the whole way, which lol if you think that is ever a good idea as a cyclist.
|
|
#
?
Mar 30, 2022 02:52
|
|
|
freebooter posted:Playing around with the election calculator on ABC: For reference the two latest polls with that calculator put the results at ( LAB / LIB / IND ) Morgan: 103/42/6 Newpoll: 91/54/6 yep not exactly that many left after that. lol.
|
|
#
?
Mar 30, 2022 02:58
|
|
|
The only election calculator I trust is one that only outputs "OOPS LIBS WIN"
|
|
#
?
Mar 30, 2022 03:04
|
|
|
dr_rat posted:For reference the two latest polls with that calculator put the results at And also for reference, even 91 seats would be the biggest Labor victory in 50 years, surpassing Hawke's 1987 high watermark of 86 seats. (But also it's mapping polling results out uniformly; I don't actually think Frydenberg is likely to lose a silver spoon seat like Kooyong, even if the feds are even more on the nose in Victoria than elsewhere.) Wheezle posted:It's time for Tony to return to parliament. It's always Toney Time
|
|
#
?
Mar 30, 2022 03:25
|
|
|
freebooter posted:Playing around with the election calculator on ABC: I like your enthusiasm
|
|
#
?
Mar 30, 2022 03:41
|
|
|
The Death Is Certain pessimism only drags the polls down a certain amount. Morrison won the 2019 election very narrowly after a 1 or 2 point margin of error because that was all he needed. Labor currently lead the Libs by about 10 points. They would have to be off by a staggeringly huge amount this time for a Liberal victory. Result: entrenched "better things aren't possible"-ism in the ALP and a decade of Liberal-lite governance
|
|
#
?
Mar 30, 2022 03:56
|
|
|
Pedal assist ebikes share mups perfectly well, it's idiots on hacked/homemade rockets that gently caress it up for everyone
|
|
#
?
Mar 30, 2022 03:56
|
|
|
If the odds are against Morrisson I think I'm going to chuck $50 on the libs so at least if I have to look at his smug grin post win again I can at least make some cash out of it.
|
|
#
?
Mar 30, 2022 03:58
|
|
|
edit, ignore, I'm wrong
|
|
#
?
Mar 30, 2022 04:00
|
|
|
BOAT SHOWBOAT posted:It's a 5 point margin, wouldn't a 10 point be 60/40, it'd 55/45 Real Bodybuilder forum how many days are there in a week energy here.
|
|
#
?
Mar 30, 2022 04:04
|
|
|
EoinCannon posted:If they get much more popular I don't think multi use trails where they mix with pedestrians/ dogs/ kids etc. will be safe But if you put in better bike lanes then someone might not be able to park on the street in that particular spot!
|
|
#
?
Mar 30, 2022 04:04
|
|
|
Tomberforce posted:If the odds are against Morrisson I think I'm going to chuck $50 on the libs so at least if I have to look at his smug grin post win again I can at least make some cash out of it. Speaking of, Sportsbet's best odds for the next leader of the opposition after the election if you remove all the ALP and Frydenberg, Dutton and (lol) Morrison are Tehan at $71 and Hawke at $101. Might be worth a flutter.
|
|
#
?
Mar 30, 2022 04:05
|
|
|
freebooter posted:The Death Is Certain pessimism only drags the polls down a certain amount. Morrison won the 2019 election very narrowly after a 1 or 2 point margin of error because that was all he needed. Labor currently lead the Libs by about 10 points. They would have to be off by a staggeringly huge amount this time for a Liberal victory. Geez, I must have tuned out about polls. Labor is really up by 10 points? Refusing to believe or hope until Anthony Green says so on election night.
|
|
#
?
Mar 30, 2022 04:13
|
|
|
The local cafe, which is always filled to the brim with boomers, was popping off about the libs this morning. I believe the cafe owner said scomo was trying to "gently caress us in the rear end" They weathered the fires, they semi weathered covid but in the end it seems like, at least amongst that particular audience, it was their incompetence at managing the cost of living and finances that finally did them in
|
|
#
?
Mar 30, 2022 04:15
|
|
|
CAT INTERCEPTOR posted:Geez, I must have tuned out about polls. Labor is really up by 10 points? Hope is a lie, but it was pretty reassuring to see the polls being quite accurate in the SA election.
|
|
#
?
Mar 30, 2022 04:22
|
|
|
abigserve posted:Pedal assist ebikes share mups perfectly well, it's idiots on hacked/homemade rockets that gently caress it up for everyone  its just the idiots fam. the bike has nothing to do with it. Scooters are loving stupid though and correctly banned (in NSW)
|
|
#
?
Mar 30, 2022 04:34
|
|
|
CAT INTERCEPTOR posted:Geez, I must have tuned out about polls. Labor is really up by 10 points? Yeah they've been on the up for about six or eight months. The interesting thing as well is that the primary vote of the third parties are pretty stable - they're picking up disaffected Lib voters.  This is what Abbott was leading by at his highest point before the 2013 election (he dipped a bit during the election campaign itself). abigserve posted:The local cafe, which is always filled to the brim with boomers, was popping off about the libs this morning. I believe the cafe owner said scomo was trying to "gently caress us in the rear end" The fact they started losing ground around the end of last winter suggests to me it at least started out COVID-related - Sydney succumbing to a long lockdown, feeding into probably all the Omicron and RAT test stuff over Christmas and NY. The fact there was no (or at least way less) federal small business support compared to 2020 was probably a big factor.
|
|
#
?
Mar 30, 2022 04:38
|
|
|
keep in mind swings are not uniform, morgan has a long history of overestimating labor, state breakdowns in federal polls are usually less accurate, polls will very likely narrow once the campaign starts properly etc. so we're certainly not at "labor is likely going to win 90+ seats in a landslide" yet. but a solid rudd-level victory is a pretty likely scenario at least. the government managing to turn things around around from polling this bad so close and win the election would be unprecedented though for a basic "realistic scenario" i'd probably just assume labor tpp of ~53%, dropping down from the current polling average of 56%. but even using that you can't really extrapolate that well to individual seats, due to swings not being universal, you only really get an alright estimate of likely seat numbers. idk that dutton or frydenberg are that likely to lose their seats, it's certainly possible but i wouldn't bet on it or anything. i don't think labor is targeting dutton's seat this time & all indications are still that queensland is labor's worst state by a fair way. if frydenberg loses his seat it'll probably be to the independent that's running, but it's very difficult to tell how likely that is beyond that she has a good chance of being very competitive.
|
|
#
?
Mar 30, 2022 04:42
|
|
|
Laserface posted:
Yeah, gonna agree here, I've seen plenty of suspiciously fast e-bikes totally fine and idiot dog walkers being a far bigger problem. Emphasis on the idiot part.
|
|
#
?
Mar 30, 2022 04:42
|
|
|
Dog walkers can be a pain and regular cyclists are also an issue if they are riding way faster than they should be but imo there is no place for any motorized mode of transport on our multi-use paths without serious speed limiting and control, and the people I'm talking about explicitly bypass all those things so they can really whip around edit; there's one guy who lives a couple of streets away from me that bombs a mountain bike around and I've seen him nearly take out kids and poo poo, if you're walking on a footpath you're just not expecting someone to fly up behind you at 35ks an hour
|
|
#
?
Mar 30, 2022 04:46
|
|
|
CAT INTERCEPTOR posted:Yeah, gonna agree here, I've seen plenty of suspiciously fast e-bikes totally fine and idiot dog walkers being a far bigger problem. Emphasis on the idiot part. There is an alarming amount of people out there that have absolutely zero sense of danger and think 'because it can go this fast, it is safe to go this fast' you see them in all those videos of morons wiping out on e-scooters (usually rental ones). the people on the modified e-scooters that do like 60mkh are on borrowed time too but i think they tend to up the safety a bit more by at least wearing a helmet. my bike isnt even that quick - it'll only do 40mk/h if you pedal and go full throttle, and you still need to give it a crank or two to get moving from stopped. the added bonus is that if i snap the chain or otherwise lose the ability to pedal, the hub motor in the rear wheel can still drive the bike. mid-drive bosch systems, if they lose the chain, you are pushing that heavy rear end bike home the whole way.
|
|
#
?
Mar 30, 2022 04:51
|
|
|
abigserve posted:Dog walkers can be a pain and regular cyclists are also an issue if they are riding way faster than they should be but imo there is no place for any motorized mode of transport on our multi-use paths without serious speed limiting and control, and the people I'm talking about explicitly bypass all those things so they can really whip around bold part, lol, ok, lets make more barriers to prevent people getting into alternative modes of transport. great idea. the rest of it, yes, that guy is an rear end in a top hat. it has nothing to do with his mode of transport. you can very easily slow down to a safe (read: walking) speed to pass pedestrians on the footpath. I do it all the time most bikes, electric or not, have brakes would you believe.
|
|
#
?
Mar 30, 2022 04:59
|
|
|
I don't see how "this bike shouldn't be able to exceed a safe speed" is a barrier lmao if you don't let people drive like maniacs, why, nobody would drive a car anymore!! My argument here is less against fast e-bikes (and scooters) and more against them being on footpaths/multi use paths - they should be on the road, in a cycling lane, exactly the same as road bikes (which can also easily exceed 40ks an hour and then some). I say this as a road cyclist that used to commute into work by bike.
|
|
#
?
Mar 30, 2022 05:04
|
|
|
lih posted:idk that dutton or frydenberg are that likely to lose their seats, it's certainly possible but i wouldn't bet on it or anything. Lol I'm literally trying to recover my Sportsbet password right now. I think I'll hedge on both Frydenberg and Dutton (irrespective of whether Labor are strongly targeting Dickson or not, it's always been very marginal) but I can't resist dropping a bit on Hawke and Tehan as well with such long odds. When there's already been chatter about knifing Morrison before the election I can't imagine a scenario where the backbench (or what's left of it) lets him remain as leader. (Me placing these bets is what will doom Labor to a loss)
|
|
#
?
Mar 30, 2022 05:06
|
|
|
Laserface posted:I do it all the time most bikes, electric or not, have brakes would you believe. Yeah, as someone who walks most places, a lot of people on bikes rarely seem to use them much when passing even large groups of pedestrians. Places where it's like a wide track is fine but places where the path is more cramped and particularly around rush hour it can be not exactly the safest. I see put everything with wheels on the road, chuck what ever weapons are handy on anything moving and after a week what ever remains can keep the road to themselves. Easy solution.
|
|
#
?
Mar 30, 2022 05:06
|
|
|
Laserface posted:bold part, lol, ok, lets make more barriers to prevent people getting into alternative modes of transport. great idea. This is so dumb.
|
|
#
?
Mar 30, 2022 05:12
|
|
|
Everyone would ride a bike to work if it wasn't for helmets.
|
|
#
?
Mar 30, 2022 05:13
|
|
|
abigserve posted:I don't see how "this bike shouldn't be able to exceed a safe speed" is a barrier lmao Multi-use paths should be wider and generally there should be more bike lanes. Sharing the road is fine in built up areas but anything thats a 60 zone/mutli-lane i opt for the footpath if no bike lanes are available. Pedal assist is not a bad thing, really. but ruling out throttle control entirely just gives the finger to anyone who would like to ride a bike to get around but otherwise cant. being able to gas it up steep/long hills and give your legs a break is a good thing, not a bad thing. JBP posted:Everyone would ride a bike to work if it wasn't for helmets. just get a Pro-Tec skate helmet. you can spend $10 more and you get a certified/sticker one. they are $80 and dont look anywhere near as try-hard/daggy as cycling helmets.
|
|
#
?
Mar 30, 2022 05:16
|
|
|
freebooter posted:Lol I'm literally trying to recover my Sportsbet password right now. I didn't realise Dickson is even marginal. Last time I was there was just before the last election and I was horrified at the number of Dutton signs in people's front yards. A big chunk of the voting public is boomers on acreage who wouldn't dream of voting Labor.
|
|
#
?
Mar 30, 2022 05:35
|
|
|
|
| # ? Apr 27, 2024 13:16 |
|
|
How the absolute gently caress did Libs stay ahead in the polls when the country was burning the gently caress down and Scummo was in Hawaii?
|
|
#
?
Mar 30, 2022 05:36
|
|
