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freebooter
Jul 7, 2009

Comstar posted:

So, sounds like the delta variant is less deadly?

I don't think so? It's about the same, but more contagious, so indirectly more deadly because it will infect more people.

The reason e.g. the UK is seeing an uptick in cases but not deaths is because they're so vaccinated.

Anyway, exclusive in the Sat paper today has leaks from the national Cabinet meeting and apparently the AHPPC urged Morrison to drop AZ entirely but he didn't want the optics of GPs having to throw out vaccines the government had bought:

https://www.thesaturdaypaper.com.au/news/politics/2021/07/03/exclusive-morrison-ignored-chief-health-officers-advice/162523440011987

quote:

The Saturday Paper has spoken to several people with direct knowledge of how the emergency meeting late on Monday unfolded. There was a sense of panic and frustration from the prime minister, who also grilled the Australian Health Protection Principal Committee (AHPPC), the advisory body for chief health and medical officers, about making vaccines mandatory for aged-care workers.

“They wanted AstraZeneca abandoned,” one source says, “but Morrison wouldn’t do it.”

...


Now, with a Commonwealth indemnity scheme in place – which Health Minister Greg Hunt says covers both the GP and the patient in the event of serious complications or death – the federal government had a solution for an emerging problem.

Entire batches of the AZ vaccine are due to expire within weeks and months.

“They were worried about the optics of doctors having to throw out lots of AZ stock the feds had bought,” one source tells The Saturday Paper.

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freebooter
Jul 7, 2009

froglet posted:

The thing is, I thought there is no reason for us to drop AZ entirely. That's not to say jab everyone with it, but how many people over the age of 60 have received both their shots? (I looked it up, it's less than 40% for the older age brackets)

It's less effective against Delta, which is basically the same as saying it's less effective against COVID, because that's going to become the dominant strain globally by the of the year. (Unless an even worse one crops up!)

But I'd assume the reason the AHPPC wants to drop it is because its name is mud. Jeanette Young basically gave it a coup de grace the other day. It doesn't matter how good your vaccine may or may not be if nobody wants to take it.

freebooter
Jul 7, 2009

froglet posted:

I get what you're saying, but isn't "less effective" still better than none?

I guess for me the determinant factor is how much supply we've got on the horizon, when it's due to arrive, and whether or not we'll have enough to go around. Like I don't understand why right at this moment, given the situation, we can't go "hey old folks, if you caught COVID, odds are you will die. Please take this vaccine that may not be perfect against this variety of COVID, but is substantially better than you catching COVID without any vaccination".

Yes, but given the supply constraints I guess a lot of people worry that getting AZ now means they'll go to the back of the queue for a Pfizer booster later, and be walking around with AZ only while Australia opens up and floods itself with Delta. Or at least that's my personal concern. Anecdotally I know a lot of boomers are worried about the blood clots.

kirbysuperstar posted:

But then there's people who already had AZ, or the studies that show that the mRNA-type stuff doesn't do poo poo in people who are immunocompromised/suppressed but AZ does because it's dead-virus-type and aaaaaaaaaaaa

For real? I haven't heard of that but my partner is immunocompromised and she's shortly getting her second Pfizer...

freebooter
Jul 7, 2009

Thank you Dr Comstar

freebooter
Jul 7, 2009

Comstar posted:

No one worries about THAT as much as freebooter is worrying about AZ!

At no point did I say I was concerned about blood clots (I'm not) but good to see your reading comprehension is as tip-top as your medical degree

Capt.Whorebags posted:

My partner is immunosuppressed for rheumatoid arthritis using a TNF-alpha inhibitor and had similar concerns. Both she and I had two doses of Pfizer and then four weeks later had antibodies testing performed. We both had a “normal” response to the vaccine for the antibodies expected, I think IgG? I’m not a doctor, she’s a GP.

She had zero reactions to the doses and was concerned that it wouldn’t have worked but all seems good.

I know, it’s anecdata, but info is hard to come by.

Cheers, I'll make sure she talks to her GP about an antibody test. This is the first either of us have heard of any testing or anything done on immunocompromised people, though I did just sort of generally worry that any vaccine wouldn't be as effective. It's what makes me most anxious about a world where we decide that vaccines are good enough and don't try to stamp it out any further than that.

freebooter
Jul 7, 2009

Senor Tron posted:

Unfortunately there are big chunks of the world where that couldn't happen for practical reasons even if there was political will for it.

There are, but it wasn't India or Tanzania or Brazil that led it explode globally to the point of no return. It was the complacency of Europe and the US in March 2020.

freebooter
Jul 7, 2009

Spookydonut posted:

Even if we get to 90% vaxxed we aren't gonna drop all restrictions completely because of the people who can't get vaxxed and you can still shed and spread virus even when fully vaxxed.

The government has said the final phase of the plan will be "everything back to normal," COVID gets treated like any other disease. They haven't put a vaccination threshhold number on that but I highly doubt it will be 100%.

freebooter
Jul 7, 2009

I've done 10-hour days 4 days a week for a while and honestly preferred 8 hours a day for five days a week, though if you have a long commute I can see the 10/4 mix being preferable.

But yes bring on the 4-day 8-hour week (except for people like me who get paid by the hour)

freebooter
Jul 7, 2009

Sydney extending the lockdown by another week after Perth and Brisbane and Darwin have exited theirs, I'm sure this will cause a re-examination of the "you should avoid lockdown until it's absolutely unavoidable" mentality in Sydneysiders

freebooter
Jul 7, 2009

I was being sarcastic, the experience of other cities will never cause Sydney to rethink anything because those cities are imaginary and the borders of metropolitan Sydney are actually Australia's national borders.

freebooter
Jul 7, 2009

Launchpad McQuack posted:

I don't know how we got here but we have gotten to the point where anyone getting sick in a pandemic is totally unacceptable from a political point of view.

You reckon we should wait until a bit more than 7% of Australians have been vaccinated before letting her rip, or nah?

freebooter
Jul 7, 2009

Senor Tron posted:

They didn't keep JobKeeper because Morrison really doesn't want states to lock down. Simple as that.

Part of me suspects he regrets closing the borders in the first place now that he's seen governments in other parts of the world face zero (political) consequences for their "have some hand sanitiser and get back to work" strategies

freebooter
Jul 7, 2009

Thank gently caress for this, though:

https://twitter.com/matttburke/status/1412946624674897920

freebooter
Jul 7, 2009

There is an alternate universe out there where Gladys resigned for one of her numerous scandals and Perrottet is the premier and runs with a let-her-rip strategy and half the media goes along with it because Sydney of course is too big to fail

freebooter
Jul 7, 2009

Kinda weird that Victoria has exactly the same unhinged pro-Lib media but Andrews still managed to not only win, but win in a landslide. What was the deal with that? I was living overseas at the time.

freebooter
Jul 7, 2009

Capt.Whorebags posted:

Edit: can’t hear “Deputy Commissioner Worboys” without hoping we’ve gone full Fury Road.

Ditto

freebooter
Jul 7, 2009

birdstrike posted:

No they can’t, vic stomped delta less than a month beforehand. If they weren’t watching and learning from that they should be sacked.

Someone on twitter was seriously arguing that "nowhere in the world" has managed to deal with a Delta outbreak despite that fact that Melbourne and Perth both dealt with Sydney's loving spillover by swiftly going into lockdown

freebooter
Jul 7, 2009

Centusin posted:

Everyone here loves to refer to Sydney's spillover, keep in mind at many points in this pandemic, 50% of returned travellers in NSW hotel quarantine have been people travelling onto other states after returning internationally without anybody in NSW complaining about the Labor premiers abandoning returning Australians. Perhaps NSW quarantine would have never had any leaks at all had Labor premiers been willing to do their job and help reunite Australians with their families, without inventing imaginary evil migrant holidaymaker narratives.

Those outbreaks in Melbourne and Perth didn't involve hairdressers that worked at a salon where 900 clients were potentially exposed. The first limo driver case in this outbreak was reported on the the 16th, the problems with the Double Bay Salon began on the 15th and were unknown until the 24th, at which point restrictions immediately began to tighten. Unless NSW was supposed to lockdown before any cases were reported, the situation is not remotely comparable to the small number of cases Victoria and Perth had to deal with.

It does seem like a valid point that right now Vietnam, Thailand, Cambodia, South Korea, Malaysia, Fiji etc are experiencing record numbers of cases despite having handled the situation well up to now. It's almost like this is a more infectious variant that is harder to deal with, which results in more unknown spread earlier on. And NSW is still better positioned than most other places that are handling a Delta outbreak right now.

It's possible to believe that other states should be taking more returned travellers and also that NSW's insistence on playing chicken with COVID puts itself and the rest of the country at heightened risk, cheers

freebooter
Jul 7, 2009

I am annoyed that Victoria's border isn't closed yet but genuinely surprised Queensland's isn't, what's the go there?

freebooter
Jul 7, 2009

Comments and Twitter full of people squealing that YOU DIDN'T WARN ANYONE IN THE ACT

freebooter
Jul 7, 2009

I knew I should've moved back to Perth last year

freebooter
Jul 7, 2009

I doubt it, because a removalist would have had a work exemption.

I think Victoria and SA will be fine because we won't play chicken with it and will immediately lock down for a week if we have any new cases pop up, but yeah, not feeling good about it.

freebooter
Jul 7, 2009

Urcher posted:

Word cloud for June:



Sydney living rent-free in Victoria's head

freebooter
Jul 7, 2009

I'm sure those comments will go down well in Frydenberg's marginal Victorian seat

freebooter
Jul 7, 2009

Launchpad McQuack posted:

We were sold a bunch of lies from state premiers and CMOs that this can be eliminated.

We have eliminated it dozens of times across every different state and we'll do it again.

freebooter
Jul 7, 2009

go_banana posted:

I've forgotten, why did Victoria, Queensland and WA (hmm what do all these states have in common) propose to reduce the number of arrivals?

The real mask-slip moment was the feds' insistence that Queensland's proposed quarantine facility would be an "addition to, not a replacement of" existing hotel quarantine. Can't have anything threatening the hotel industry's ongoing financial bailout.

freebooter
Jul 7, 2009

Victoria surely has to do a quick lockdown for smug I-told-you-so reasons if nothing else

freebooter
Jul 7, 2009

What does it matter? Is someone going to be hauled off to the gulag for not masking up at at the gym at 6am? I didn't even realise the rules had been relaxed, I had a job interview last week and had to wear a mask into the office for it.

freebooter
Jul 7, 2009

Megillah Gorilla posted:

"If they had no symptoms" doing a lot of lifting in that sentence.

Why? How do you know they had symptoms?

There are plenty of cases who've done the wrong thing (the removalists, the guy wandering around Wollert for 10 days while symptomatic before getting tested). There are also plenty of cases who don't have symptoms or don't realise they've been at an exposure site and just because everyone on this forum is a curtain-twitching weirdo who never leaves the house doesn't mean the rest of Australia is obliged to live like that.

freebooter
Jul 7, 2009

Tommunist posted:

I have vivid memories of your posting last year.

I have never criticised anybody for doing what they're allowed to do

freebooter
Jul 7, 2009

Tommunist posted:

Yes you did LOL

Since I apparently live "vividly" rent-free in your head feel free to refresh my memory

freebooter
Jul 7, 2009


This was in the context of Victoria recording hundreds of cases a day, and lmao that you either bookmarked it or trawled that far back through my post history

freebooter
Jul 7, 2009

Fists Up posted:

If you look at the list of reasons visas can be approved then "economic benefit" is really the only option one can go on for any of these people. It's a nice wide category they can use.

Willing to bet the government goes over personal applications with a fine-toothed comb but rubber stamps anything a big company like Seven puts in front of it without a second glance

freebooter
Jul 7, 2009

They're badly down in the Newspoll:

https://theconversation.com/view-from-the-hill-morrison-and-coalition-sink-in-newspoll-on-the-back-of-rollout-shambles-164699

When Shorten lost what seemed like an unloseable election I thought that was it, for sure, we were stuck with another Howard era. And I thought that even more when their approval shot up after the pandemic started. But the way things have been going lately, and the fact they've probably lost a lot of support in Victoria after all the sniping and Sydney favouritism, they could actually be hosed by the next election.

freebooter
Jul 7, 2009

bell jar posted:

Albanese will still lose

Incorrect. Albanese will win and announce that we have to cut Newstart further.

freebooter
Jul 7, 2009

Since the pandemic had proven that in terms of politics people only care about what's happened in the last ten minutes, the Liberals will probably shoot back up in the polls once everybody's vaccinated and can go to Bali again around New Year's.

freebooter
Jul 7, 2009

Senor Tron posted:

The reaction to borders reopening is hard to predict.

Once borders open we will have Covid in the community permanently. With as many people as possible vaccinated we're probably looking at flu numbers of infected and dead each year. That seems inevitable at this point, but Australians have got used (outbreaks aside) to not having it spreading uncontrolled. We'll eventually accept it because it will become the norm, but initially it will be a massive increase, in contrast to much of the world where it "just" being as bad as strong flu years is a massive improvement to the situation they have faced over the last 18 months.

This is going to be a really interesting mental shift, yeah.

The idea that it will become "just another flu" is something that was spoken about a lot last year, pre-vaccine, and relied on the idea that it would mutate to become less deadly. It seems like a lot of people are thinking we can just directly jump into that stage via vaccines when that hasn't actually happened yet. Britain is already, right now, recording 40ish deaths a day which is exactly what their typical flu death rate is when smoothed out across a year. That is obviously going to get worse, and that is obviously not the same as "just another flu" at all. Even before you factor in long COVID and unvaccinated kids.

I think the best scenario would be that we only very gradually ease the border restrictions (nobody gets in without being vaccinated, quarantine at home etc) and continue with test/trace/isolate while we watch how things develop in the rest of the world re: variants, booster shots, new vaccines. Maybe we can keep it at a mitigated low burn like South Korea or some Scandinavian countries did last year, and only go back into lockdown if some dangerous variant springs back up.

But I genuinely don't know how the public will react. Australians have been conditioned to be extremely intolerant of any community spread, but that might change once more and more individuals start getting vaccinated. I personally don't want to get anywhere near the loving thing even after being vaccinated, but I doubt most people will see it that way.

freebooter
Jul 7, 2009

go_banana posted:

NSW numbers are really, really bad. And Jesus Christ all the press asking if its time we just learn to live with the virus. Get hosed scum.

Akin to the old Yes Minister joke about politicians going "we must do something > this is something > therefore we must do this" I think a lot of journos go "we must ask something > this is something> therefore we must ask this."

Similar to the thinkpiece industry with its very short attention span both here and overseas churning out pieces along the lines of Australia Was A Covid Success Story; But Now The Tables Have Turned. Ten years from now or even one year from now nobody is going to remember a delayed vaccine rollout and a few months of lockdown for Sydney, and Australia's overall pandemic response will still be one of the best in the world. Conversely, the fact that the US and UK have gotten a majority of their population vaccinated very quickly does not atone for their collective 700,000+ death toll.

freebooter
Jul 7, 2009

Anyway I went for a walk down my local high street (in Melbourne) and two of the cafes that would normally be open for takeaway were closed entirely, plus the kebab place, and I stopped in at my local and the owner said he was debating whether to even bother staying open or just shut down for the rest of lockdown and put his staff on annual leave. He's pro-lockdown but says he's still waiting on the government financial support he was supposed get from the May lockdown, and lost Jobkeeper in November because his earnings weren't reduced enough to keep it. Bleak vibe out there.

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freebooter
Jul 7, 2009

birdstrike posted:

“talk to your GP” as if anyone under the age of 60 has a GP instead of whichever itinerants are at the medical centre that day

This always bugs me. More so in the UK where I was lucky to get a GP appointment at all within three weeks (and where you're forbidden from going anywhere other than your local GP that you are registered at), but even here, I don't think I've ever had a regular GP in my life.

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