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idk about the other countries but i know things got worse in South Korea because they hosed up and decided to ease restrictions too much 'for the economy' when previously they'd been much stricter, and they've also struggled to get vaccine supplies too
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Jul 10, 2021 10:50
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no, the moderates are still dominant in the nsw libs, just constance had previously said he intended to quit state politics for federal politics a few years ago, and this is just him following through on that. he also burned a lot of goodwill in the state party by stating his intention to run for the eden-monaro by-election & then withdrawing in a ridiculous mess due to a dispute with nsw nationals leader john barilaro, who also had his eyes on that seat (in the end, neither of them ran). i would have been very surprised if he thought he could make a run for premier after that.
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Oct 3, 2021 03:30
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Lolie posted:Barilaro has ruled out federal politics. i don't think barilaro has a problem with the right of the libs, if anything he gets along with the moderates worse - all the koala drama last year, and he was calling on turnbull to resign back in 2017 lol he'd been considering leaving state politics for quite a while, and said he'd planned to resign before too long anyway, just he brought it forward now that berejiklian's gone so perrottet doesn't have to do multiple cabinet reshuffles.
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Oct 4, 2021 01:34
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morrison announced not long ago that they've already changed the rules from yesterday & now you can leave isolation on day 6 if you're not symptomatic (no negative rapid test result needed unlike what was announced yesterday) why even bother then, it's not like symptoms are correlated to contagiousness or anything. & of course workplaces don't count as close contact or anything anymore, only if you live with someone. gotta keep businesses open so everyone can get it! lunacy
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Dec 31, 2021 03:37
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BrigadierSensible posted:So Palmer in his latest Youtube ads is claiming Joseph Lyons, (PM from 1932-39) as one of his own. Because he named his party the same as the party that old dead white man ran under. there's not any laws about truth in political advertising at the federal level. there were briefly a law about it in the 80s but it was quickly repealed because they quickly realised that enforcing it would be very difficult & problematic, especially as the law was considered overly broad - publishers etc. could be held liable, not just the ad's creator, so there were concerns about papers & television needing to seek legal advice for every political ad to avoid publishing one that was false. SA and the ACT have some limited laws covering state elections though. there is probably room for something to reduce lies in political advertising that isn't as broad as what was briefly in effect in the 80s, but it's still a difficult area
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Jan 2, 2022 13:12
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https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2022/jan/03/people-will-die-doctors-warn-covid-surge-is-filling-up-nsw-hospitals reports are that nsw's health system is already nearly at breaking point & the government is denying it & trying to cover that up, of course
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Jan 3, 2022 08:03
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NSW Labor is actually calling for RATs to be free in a rare & shocking display of a spine. federal Labor is just calling for them to be 'affordable' lol which is bafflingly pathetic even for them this may be wrong but my impression was the real issue with hospitalisations at the moment was just the sheer number of them due to how infectious Omicron is, with it being less about ICU numbers compared to before (though obviously that's still a problem when the rest of the hospital is totally overwhelmed)
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Jan 4, 2022 09:00
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it's both baffling that Morrison thinks this is an election-winning strategy and that Labor isn't really willing to properly hold him to account on this. I guess they haven't totally capitulated which is something for them but 'this essential healthcare should be free to everyone' seems pretty basic and obvious. even NSW Labor, usually the most useless in the country, have somehow got behind it but federal Labor won't?
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Jan 4, 2022 10:37
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yeah as mediocre as albo has been there's still a long way to go before you reach starmer-level useless/terrible
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Jan 4, 2022 13:51
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idk that driving RATs out of the headlines will work when it's such an obvious problem effecting basically everyone
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Jan 4, 2022 14:22
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at least he did it before morrison
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Jan 5, 2022 00:38
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Comstar posted:It's going to come out later than the massive multi millionaire anti-vaccer got his medical certificate signed by his drug doctor. people looked at the rules for exemptions and they're vague enough that if you had covid within the last 6 months you can probably manage to qualify so that's what it probably is
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Jan 5, 2022 12:14
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Seemlar posted:I feel like part of it is with a bunch of his previous bad decisions/actions the states basically shoved him out of the way and did their own thing, which made him irrelevant rather than harmful. That's not happening this time, so far. they don't have the ability to solve the supply issues in the same way as the feds could have here. when morrison hosed up vaccines the states also couldn't really do anything either.
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Jan 5, 2022 21:59
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for whatever reason news.com.au generally seems more insulated from news corp's hard right editorial line than the rest of the murdoch press here, them being critical of morrison isn't really any sign that morrison's fallen out of favour or anything yet if the australian on the other hand was sticking the knife in, or even just the tabloids, that's different
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Jan 5, 2022 22:29
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lih posted:people looked at the rules for exemptions and they're vague enough that if you had covid within the last 6 months you can probably manage to qualify so that's what it probably is reports are now that this is indeed what it was, but Tennis Australia had repeatedly been told previously that those exemption rules weren't acceptable so ???
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Jan 6, 2022 01:18
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lol there's already reports of senior NSW Libs talking about wanting to roll Perrottet because they think he's handled things so badly by totally ditching all Covid measures in December against health advice that it will surely cost them the 2023 election
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Jan 7, 2022 01:56
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yeah I don't think Perrottet's failures so far have will that much bearing on the NSW election that's still over a year away (unfortunately) because so much can happen in that time but it's funny that some of the NSW Libs are already tearing themselves apart over this and going "we're doomed!!!". & of course he's set to announce new restrictions today which will infuriate the other half of the party too QLD government is now saying they expect cases to peak at the end of the month & are probably going to extend school holidays a week or two
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Jan 7, 2022 02:53
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freebooter posted:I'm of two minds about the global COVID response as it portends to climate change. On the one hand the failure of governments to co-operate, the spread of misinformation etc all bodes poorly; on the other hand the immediate development and mass distribution of multiple vaccines within the space of 12-24 months bodes well for the moonshot technology solutions (which are the only things at this point that will mitigate climate change anyway). lol any potential moonshot solution to climate change is much much more difficult and less likely than just "vaccines but faster than usual" for covid & it's not like we've even managed to distribute vaccines well globally. in some places, including here, vaccination programs have been 'good enough' (though of course ours was particularly slow & rocky to begin with) but the usa now has one of its major political parties adopting anti-vaxism as a core value & refusal to move past IP rights is significantly hindering access to vaccines in the third world.
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Jan 7, 2022 11:05
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freebooter posted:Climate change is an immensely slower challenge than the virus that emerged in China in November 2019 and unprecedentedly hosed all our lives up a mere five months later in March 2020 which also means there's far less urgency to force governments to do much of use at all, let alone successfully execute some sort of moonshot
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Jan 7, 2022 13:45
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two doses of vaccines do little-to-nothing to stop the spread of omicron though, we're going to have to wait before most of the population is boosted before we really see benefits in terms of slowing down the spread directly from vaccines. it will probably peak before then (the next few weeks does seem reasonable considering south africa) just from having ripped through the population so quickly, but that doesn't really mean we can't get another wave in a few months, we've seen that happen all over the place before.
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Jan 9, 2022 02:37
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lmao at the government loving that up so badly
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Jan 10, 2022 07:55
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I think more likely is WA just saying they'll wait until they've got everyone boostered too - that should stave off most of the problems the rest of the country is having.
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Jan 11, 2022 08:49
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Centusin posted:These paediatric infectious disease experts seem to agree with opening them and who am I to disagree with experts lol this article is really disingenous "A US study suggests Omicron is less severe in children compared with Delta." this is the study they link: https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0163445321006332 which says most of its data predates even delta and has nothing to say about delta or omicron.
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Jan 12, 2022 07:57
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Capt.Whorebags posted:I know that all polls are meaningless and we may as well look at chicken entrails, but SMH/Resolve have the Coalition primary vote now below that of ALP: https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/coalition-primary-vote-drops-below-labor-s-for-the-first-time-resolve-survey-20220117-p59orf.html obviously you have to take all the polls with gigantic grains of salt but Resolve is probably the least trustworthy of all of them that said other polls have had Labor's primary vote ahead of the Coalition a fair amount recently anyway
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Jan 19, 2022 00:13
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https://kevinbonham.blogspot.com/2019/12/field-guide-to-opinion-pollsters-46th.html bonham is a good read on that stuff newspoll has at least made some attempt to improve things after the 2019 failure though we don't know if those attempts have really worked yet obviously but it's had good results at recent state elections & is making some effort to be transparent about what it's doing essential has a historial labor bias for voting intention but there's nothing particularly wrong with it. its issues polling isn't great though resolve has repeatedly had weird outlier results, does not make any attempt to think about preferences which regularly leads to bad reporting on its results, and is not transparent about its practices at all morgan has historically a very strong labor bias (still seems apparent these days) and is not transparent basically newspoll and essential are more worth paying attention to but still big grain of salt. take a few points off every labor tpp in a morgan poll. resolve is weird and probably not worth paying too much attention to, unless it ends up outperforming the rest at this election lih fucked around with this message at 02:43 on Jan 19, 2022 |
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Jan 19, 2022 02:41
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it's not even like it's unexpected, this omicron wave is not too far off what all the models from around september predicted as the worst case for reopening with delta
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Jan 21, 2022 01:13
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https://twitter.com/Ageinvestigates/status/1484320454177607680 lol
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Jan 21, 2022 02:31
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restaurants are regularly having to shut due to covid-caused staff shortages and retail & hospitality spending is down at near-lockdown levels. supermarkets are having extensive supply chain issues caused by covid - most prominently there wasn't toilet paper available anywhere near me for weeks & there's a lot of issues with meat, but shelves are regularly empty for all sorts of other random goods too. here in qld it's the most extensively disrupted things have been since the very first few months of the pandemic, with things being the worst they've ever been in some ways - supply chain issues are the worst they've ever been, businesses are suffering but aren't getting any support from the government this time, etc. & of course the majority of this could have been largely avoided with more caution & better planning. it sucks! it's not a 'return to normal', it's a significant regression.
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Jan 24, 2022 02:39
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you also had a month or two post-lockdown and pre-omicron when you had everything open again, case numbers were stable, and you didn't have all the new issues introduced by omicron. if omicron hadn't happened, i don't think anyone would really be complaining. no one is saying "nsw and vic should never have come out of lockdown", that's not the cause of any of the problems. i'm sure the current situation is significantly better than the extended lockdowns for the majority of people. the issue is that the governments were totally unprepared for omicron and refused to show any caution in response to news of it, which has caused pretty significant disruption. it's not at all the smooth reopening of borders (state or international) the government insisted it would be. the omicron situation we've ended up with is not too far off all the worst-case reopening scenarios (just less deadly) from modelling back in september or so, so there's really no excuse for them not being better prepared. lih fucked around with this message at 04:24 on Jan 24, 2022 |
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Jan 24, 2022 04:14
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https://www.thesaturdaypaper.com.au/news/politics/2022/01/22/the-sweetheart-deal-that-caused-testing-collapse/164277000013179quote:The simple trick of pooling multiple samples before conducting polymerase chain reaction (PCR) tests had allowed these companies to maximise profits and capacity while giving the illusion that the nation’s Covid-19 testing regime was capable of flexing should a new wave of infections break through as restrictions eased in most jurisdictions ahead of Christmas. ah lol. another way the government was totally unprepared for cases rising. there's more in the article but that's the core of it. https://12ft.io/ is a good paywall remover if you need one lih fucked around with this message at 11:44 on Jan 24, 2022 |
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Jan 24, 2022 11:42
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if his goal was simply to elect the liberals he would be doing what he did last time (run a ton of anti-labor ads and not much else)
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Jan 29, 2022 00:15
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https://twitter.com/GhostWhoVotes/status/1487735691081437185 https://twitter.com/kevinbonham/status/1487738271316602880 polling officially looking very good for labor
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Jan 30, 2022 11:49
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Senor Tron posted:After 19 I think most people are ignoring the polling. Will tighten going into the election for sure, but would be nice to have an election result anything close to that. yeah things always tighten in campaign season & take everything with a grain of salt especially after last election's failures, but this is also better for labor than any polls this far out last time were so there's reason to be a little optimistic about how things are shaping up at least. there also haven't been any individual polls this good for labor since i think 2018 - morgan has had a few with similar margins recently but morgan generally seems biased to labor by a few points.
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Jan 30, 2022 12:03
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the feds repeatedly doubling down on austerity and refusing even to help fund nsw's new business support package or anything makes it seem like they're actively trying to lose the election lol.
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Jan 31, 2022 03:02
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the shocking thing is even someone as right-wing as perrottet realises that's a bad idea at the moment.
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Jan 31, 2022 04:22
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Bucky Fullminster posted:Why is that what you're asking about? There is a savage disinformation machine which is radicalising people all around the world, including here, producing scenes we've never seen before. It's winding these people up and dragging them to the right. We can laugh at how dumb they are, but it is a significant escalation and a dangerous precedent and it does not appear to be slowing down, even after restrictions have lifted and hospitalisations continue to rise. I've done what I can to shine a light on where it's coming from, and the way it is infiltrating Australia. Because fascists are a threat and they are exploiting this situation by weaponising conspiracy narratives. To the extent that my writing has failed to achieve that then I apologise. no one's saying it's not important to keep an eye on the far-right but your writing does a terrible job of it. it's incredibly tedious & long-winded and delves through long chains of often fairly tenuous connections, ending up resembling the conspiracies it's trying to keep track of. it's also barely relevant at all to this thread, being mostly deep dives into qanon-related stuff instead of any substantial focus on the australian far-right. take the qanon deep dives elsewhere
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Jan 31, 2022 07:32
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https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2022/feb/01/free-for-all-coalition-agrees-to-importation-of-unapproved-rapid-antigen-tests lmao coalition is saying you can import rapid tests that don't work now. because of the shortages.
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Jan 31, 2022 22:17
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https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2022/feb/01/craig-kelly-floats-preference-offer-for-liberal-mps-who-break-ranks-in-parliament lol kelly saying UAP is going to hand out HTVs preferencing all sitting members last, except for any sitting members who are willing to back some of his antivax lunacy. only one so far is llew o'brien because he opposes vax mandates. i'm not sure there's really any others in the lower house who would, most of the coalition's lunatic fringe are in the senate? maybe another nat or two idk only will really have a small effect because minor party voters don't typically follow HTVs very strongly but it's still bad for the government lol.
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Feb 1, 2022 00:45
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BrigadierSensible posted:Is May the latest the election will happen, or the latest it can be called, thus leading to an election 4-6 weeks from then? "preference deals" just means parties doing deals about what they put on their HTV cards. voters are of course free to follow or ignore the HTV cards however they want and generally minor party voters follow them less strongly. this election there has not been a preference deal between the UAP & LNP yet. craig kelly said today the UAP's plan is to put incumbents last on HTV, except for anyone who backs some of the anti-vax mandates legislation he wants to introduce soon. obviously this benefits labor more than the government, but it's pretty small because minor party voters are less likely to follow HTV cards. in 2019 palmer did a preference deal with the LNP to have each other put the other above labor on their HTV cards, which is probably what you're thinking of. this didn't really have much of an impact, UAP to LNP preference flows were only the deciding factor in i think a single seat? palmer's gigantic anti-labor ad scare campaign was the way he was more influential. people keep reposting articles about the deal from 2019 all the time for whatever reason, usually some weird paranoia that some trickery on behalf of palmer will give the election to the LNP. "making a deal to syphon his votes directly to the LNP" is not a thing any party can do. it used to happen in the senate with group voting tickets before the 2016 reforms, but not anymore.
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Feb 1, 2022 06:00
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Capt.Whorebags posted:I am sure that LNP and the PM''s office have wargamed out calling a half-senate election and holding the HoR until polling improves.
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Feb 1, 2022 10:02
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