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Hello covrades. Long-time chud, first-time poster. I claim to be an anesthesiologist, although my fridge might beg to differ, and I've been in the trenches with covid. Not since day one, but not long thereafter - I have a PAPR selfie from March 18th of last year. My tally stands at 32 intubations specifically for covid, of which 21 died (and various other intubations of patients with covid, but not for covid. I don't track those). The overwhelming majority of those were last year, surprisingly enough covid has not gone hog wild in my vicinity since then. In the hospital where I work, covid is extremely, extremely over - most of the staff wear surgical masks with only a small minority wearing N95s or better, and they all drop them to drink coffee. I go outside in order to drop my respirator and drink, I take not one breath of unfiltered air within the hospital walls. Yesterday I went up to the ICU and walked past a room with a ventilated patient, with covid precaution signs on the door, and the door was wide open. Extremely over. I will say, working on dying covid patients does really drive home the fact that you can trust your respirator. I have no concern going to the grocery store, the gym, or any other public building, while wearing that level of protection, and I never wear anything less. But, all that aside. 18%. 18%. 18%. 
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Dec 10, 2021 01:42
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Pingui posted:On behalf of your employer: thank you in advance for your sacrifice. o7 I follow the maxim "If it sucks, hit da bricks." Did my part in contributing to the healthcare worker shortage this summer by stepping down to part time, and I'll absolutely bail entirely if things get unacceptably bad. How bad would it need to get to be unacceptable? I'll probably find out soon enough 
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Dec 10, 2021 02:21
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zone posted:Shouldn't be long, then. Healthcare systems across the world will begin collapsing by january at the latest. Ehhhhh. This thread has been clamoring about this for ages, yet the ability of healthcare systems to asymptotically approach collapse without ever going over the edge keeps defying your predictions. Maybe omicron will finally be the one to go the distance, but maybe they'll just continue skating eternally along a razorblade without ever falling off.
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Dec 10, 2021 02:33
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mastershakeman posted:Turns out its pretty easy to just worsen the quality of care and let people die in ICUs in one week instead of two Always has been. But that's not collapse. Or, if it is, then collapse is way more boring, less flashy, and less impactful than everyone implies when they talk about healthcare collapsing. You could reasonably make the argument that Florida's healthcare system collapsed while people were sprawled on the floor of a public library trying to get MABs, but even then, hospitals were still functioning. Care was worse, death was more frequent, patient satisfaction ratings were probably pretty poor, but as collapses go it was very low-energy.
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Dec 10, 2021 02:59
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Ursine Catastrophe posted:
I agree with you that this is the likely thing to happen, I just disagree on whether it can properly be called collapse. If it isn't something that makes itself undeniably known, if it can just be ignored and swept under the rug from the public eye, if to many people it doesn't matter, does it deserve the term "collapse?" That condo tower in Florida collapsed, and it turned from being a big fancy building inhabited by wealthy people into a pile of rubble and bodies. Collapse implies impact. It implies severity. The word itself implies that it matters. And what's been happening, the American public has made undeniably clear, doesn't matter.
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Dec 10, 2021 03:39
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Wiggly Wayne DDS posted:every bit of research coming out about england gets a bit worse each time And also there's a coronavirus 
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Dec 11, 2021 00:51
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Pillowpants posted:
Nobody knows, including the people saying it, and I am strongly suspicious that it's just wishful thinking anyway. I got my original Pfizer doses in December and January and a booster in August. I'm not planning to get another booster at this time because there's no evidence that it provides any benefit against omicron. If such evidence arises then I'll get another dose; if not, no big deal. My respirator protected me throughout 2020 and it continues to protect me now.
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Dec 11, 2021 15:31
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Just wear a respirator and you'll be fine. I go to stores wearing a respirator. I go to the gym wearing a respirator. I've gone over to boardgame nights at friends' houses wearing a respirator. You can't eat or drink but you can absolutely be present with the people you care about. Covid isn't magic. It's a little particle of protein and RNA and a p100 filter will stop it.
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Dec 11, 2021 20:57
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PerniciousKnid posted:My larger problem is that without daycare I don't have time/energy for any of those things. I was the first person to stop attending Discord chats because I don't like any of my friends as much as I need sleep. Right, your situation is different if you have kids, but I'm talking to the people who are saying they can't go over to their friends' houses and play boardgames or watch movies. They can. They absolutely can, and despite all the jokes about misuse of the word ~*~safely~*~, if they're wearing a respirator, they're safe. It's safe to walk into the ICU room of someone actively dying of covid, as long as you're wearing a respirator. Covid is a physical infectious agent and an appropriate physical barrier will stop it.
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Dec 11, 2021 21:11
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Why Am I So Tired posted:It's still hard for me to fully trust the seal, I'm using the respirator only for extra protection for curbside pickups (and protection for getting vaccinated). But honestly the idea of hanging out with people who, through their actions, reveal they're comfortable with getting infected and transmitting death / disability to others doesn't sound appealing whatsoever. Intubate a couple of dozen covid patients. You'll learn to trust your respirator. Remember, you have to operate on the premise that this is forever. There's no getting rid of covid. It's going to keep circulating, mutating, infecting, maiming, and killing, for the rest of our lives, barring a medical breakthrough that allows the creation of a true sterilizing vaccine that works against all variants. I'm not going to sit around waiting for that. I've put my respirator on and embraced the new normal. I have learned to live with covid. I'm not going out to restaurants in a futile attempt to insist that life 2019-style is back, because it never will be, but I'm going to live the best life that I can given the limitations imposed on me by reality.
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Dec 11, 2021 21:32
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icantfindaname posted:So what's the deal on fourth shots? Any data to suggest a fourth shot of Moderna makes any difference? I guess it's moot for now for me, because in the 6 or 8 weeks I suppose I would want to wait after my booster society is going to implode anyways There is no evidence whatsoever about fourth vaccine doses. Stop worrying so much about shots and put on a respirator. Vaccines are a lifeboat. Physical source control is your actual ship. Stop letting viruses get into your body.
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Dec 12, 2021 00:40
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Joementum posted:what's the latest on the risk of outdoor transmission? do you guys mask up for outdoor walks / jogging / hiking? There's no hard data, no matter how much you look. Information to guide your decision-making simply does not exist. Personally, I'll put the respirator on if I'm going to be within ~10 feet of other people but I'll drop it when I'm outside that distance.
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Dec 12, 2021 14:32
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genericnick posted:lmao at declaring that "only" three percent of patients die, Well, that story really buries the lede if 20% of hospitalized patients were dying in earlier South African outbreaks. I've been following the news pretty closely and I had no idea of that bit of information.
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Dec 12, 2021 14:55
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Back the code blue
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Dec 13, 2021 01:52
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Strep Vote posted:I sympathize with copers because I just thought to myself, "shut up you'll summon it!" thanks idiot storytelling brain Rocovid's Basilisk
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Dec 13, 2021 03:14
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Kim Bong Chill posted:I want to earnestly engage with this crazy thread for a moment. What actual, real plan does anyone think the US can really do on its own to combat Covid? Or perhaps the world without destroying the economy? Put an N95 or better on every face that needs to be sharing air with people outside its immediate family. Elastomeric respirators are ideal because they're easier to wear properly than an N95. This means no restaurants, no bars, no swimming pools. Pretty much everything else can continue uninterrupted. You can work in a respirator. You can go to the store in a respirator. You can exercise in the gym in a respirator. You can spend time with your friends in a respirator. I do all of these things. It is an annoyance, compared to living life 2019 style, but it is entirely doable.
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Dec 13, 2021 19:15
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Koirhor posted:glad to know my booster will be basically worthless in 3 weeks Stop focusing on shots and put on a respirator.
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Dec 13, 2021 19:47
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Koirhor posted:I have a child in school and a spouse that “had” to go back to work Ah, sorry. Based on the way you phrased that, I assume your wife is trying to kill herself and you by not wearing an appropriately protective mask. Can you convince her to go N95 or better?
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Dec 13, 2021 20:00
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SuperKlaus posted:And I cannot find conclusive information on whether my 3M 6000 series half mask exhalation valve provides source control. I do note that 3M sells an exhalation valve filter accessory. So, until I obtain that accessory, I had best manage to get a cloth mask on over my 3M 6000 series half mask, for others' sake, correct? Don't worry so much about it. I have absolutely no intention of filtering my exhale valve. If other people are wearing masks that are properly protective, it doesn't matter if my exhalation is filtered or not, they don't have to worry about catching covid. If they aren't wearing masks that are properly protective, they're declaring to the world that they're fine with catching covid, and any complaint about my exhale valve is purely performative.
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Dec 13, 2021 21:03
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Pillowpants posted:I don't see how our hospitals can avoid getting overwhelmed. It doesn't matter. Hospitals will still function to some extent. Some people will get adequate care, some people will get inadequate care, some people will get sent home to die. Hardly anyone will notice and absolutely nobody will care. There will be no grand moment of acknowledgment of how bad things are. There will be collapse, in a sense, but there will never be collapse in the sense that most people think of. You can't deny that the Amazon warehouse collapsed in the tornado, because it's a pile of rubble with bodies underneath - that kind of eye-catching collapse will never happen. For most people, the healthcare industry will dance indefinitely along the edge of collapse but never go beyond it.
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Dec 14, 2021 02:51
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RoboChrist 9000 posted:I find this surprising. Doesn't this mean, then, that Omicron may indeed not replace Delta and either be syndemic or simply sputter out? Like we're full Open Biden and this thing has been in America longer than it was South Africa, and yet insofar as can be told, Delta is still the dominant strain in the US. It's not surprising at all. You just need to keep in mind that the date it was first detected isn't the date it came into existence. The best estimates are that omicron started kicking off in South Africa in mid October. It likely had around a month of growth time (potentially 10 doublings, or even more) before being detected at all. By the time it was detected, it had already solidly established itself locally as well as seeded itself to other countries. The idea that omicron started somewhere other than South Africa is extremely unlikely.
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Dec 14, 2021 17:06
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Bruce Hussein Daddy posted:If you take that going from 0.4% to 2.9% in a week means doubling every 2 days, the US will be 100% Omi on Christmas day. Absolutely no chance of omicron hitting 100% any time soon. >50% I can believe, but my boy Delta's still got some fight left in him 
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Dec 14, 2021 19:27
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Pillowpants posted:I saw a post saying Omicron was surging in washington, but Hospitalizations are down 10% in the past month. I mean unless tomorrows reporting shows something else - which is possible, the decrease has been pretty consistent. It turns out omicron actually is mild 
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Dec 14, 2021 21:02
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RoboChrist 9000 posted:So out of curiosity; why is this happening? Like I don't mean in a moral/spiritual sense, or why the world leaders are behaving as they are. I mean, like, why is COVID-19 doing what it's doing? Because covid was the result of gain-of-function research performed in Wuhan at the direction of Peter Daszak's EcoHealth Alliance, funded by the U.S. NIH. The pandemic started because of a lab leak. Both governments know this and neither will ever acknowledge it.
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Dec 15, 2021 15:09
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Arivia posted:i want to see sources for whatever this is https://www.bbc.com/news/57932699 posted:Dr Fauci, as well as being an adviser to President Biden, is the director of the US National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases (NIAID), part of the US government's National Institutes of Health (NIH). https://theintercept.com/2021/09/06/new-details-emerge-about-coronavirus-research-at-chinese-lab/ posted:The Intercept has obtained more than 900 pages of documents detailing the work of EcoHealth Alliance, a U.S.-based health organization that used federal money to fund bat coronavirus research at the Chinese laboratory. The trove of documents includes two previously unpublished grant proposals that were funded by the National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases, as well as project updates relating to EcoHealth Alliance’s research, which has been scrutinized amid increased interest in the origins of the pandemic. Peter Daszak is the man who loudly and immediately proclaimed, as soon as the pandemic was kicking off, that it could not possibly have started as a lab leak. He knows exactly where it came from. Edit: Wow, Gradenko had this all ready to go.
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Dec 15, 2021 15:34
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actionjackson posted:one of the transplant nephrologists I work with (university of minnesota) said he's seeing so many covid patients it's insane, they get transplants, and still go out and party and poo poo even though it's covid and they are on immunosuppression Guessing he won't be seeing them for very many follow-ups.
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Dec 15, 2021 16:08
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JAY ZERO SUM GAME posted:amazing to read this morning that jeffrey epstein created covid to punish the wealthy who backstabbed him I don't buy in to the Epstein part. It doesn't need to be some grand conspiracy. It doesn't need to be malicious. Scientists do horrifying stuff in labs all the time, and occasionally those horrifying things end up killing people. Lab gently caress-ups killing people is a normal and accepted part of science, and always has been, whether it be with novel chemicals, radiation sources, or viruses. Covid is an outlier only because of its magnitude.
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Dec 15, 2021 16:14
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Mr Hootington posted:CHINA MUST PAY I've never said anything of the sort. When a poster asked "why covid, why now," the answer is because it was being deliberately studied, almost certainly by use of gain of function research, and someone got careless with their safety measures in the lab. There is nothing unusual about scientific research killing researchers and others. The only thing that makes covid exceptional is that it managed to propagate into a worldwide pandemic. Lab work resulting in death has happened countless times and should surprise no-one. Pushing the margins of science is inherently dangerous. It wasn't a bioweapon. It wasn't a deliberate release. It was just yet another human fuckup in a long, long line of human fuckups when it comes to working with lethal materials.
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Dec 15, 2021 18:07
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Mr Hootington posted:10 CHINESE MUST DIE FOR EVERY AMERICAN WHO HAS DIED! WE HAVE NUKES! WE MUST SHOW THAT YOUNG COMMUNIST NATION WHO IS BOSS! You're doing the lib thing. "You said something bad about Biden? Put on your MAGA hat and get out of here, Trump-lover!" HiroProtagonist posted:this is silly because covid was later found to have been in italy six months or more before china alerted the world to wuhan. If this were the case, it would have taken off in Italy before it did in Wuhan. Saying it started somewhere other than Wuhan is implausible, along the lines of saying omicron didn't start in South Africa. Especially since there is literally a papertrail of money coming from the U.S. NIH, through the EcoHealth Alliance, to the Wuhan Institute of Virology to study bat coronaviruses, which is an area of research that Peter Daszak is very keen on. RoboChrist 9000 posted:I mean, I know I asked earlier about how/why this is happening now, but I mean like, from the perspective of a policy maker who can actually do something about the fire. I don't want anyone in congress focusing on how COVID got started, I want them focusing on loving stopping it. Very reasonable. I wish the people in power would do something about covid too. Unfortunately they aren't interested in doing so.
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Dec 15, 2021 18:27
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mdemone posted:but omicron didn't start in South Africa It did. Best estimates are that it started its rise there in mid-October. The first case that was sequenced and identified was far from the first case of omicron.
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Dec 15, 2021 18:36
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Hello covrades. Thread's having an extremely mild one today, I see. I'm happy to report that covid is still over where I work - covid inpatients are up by a couple since yesterday, but not enough to be statistically significant, and regardless, nobody cares. Most people are not wearing N95s, although a few are, and nearly everyone is still dropping their mask to chat in the hallway and drink coffee in the break room. The "it's mild" belief has infected everyone except me, apparently, I've heard several people talking about it.
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Dec 21, 2021 22:17
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Goobish posted:Glad you had a good day, people are dying all the loving time where I'm at. Bought a Buddhist book on grief today so maybe that will help. I don't have an explanation for why things aren't worse here. Masking in public is so-so, a fair number of people in the stores etc do wear them, but almost all are ineffective cloth/surgical stuff, with a few KF94s/KN95s mixed in. Restaurants are packed every evening. The delta wave in August/September never got that bad either. Maybe the people here are especially virtuous and are being rewarded by a just and caring god 
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Dec 21, 2021 22:30
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SpaceCadetBob posted:lol how the gently caress did ct go from 2k cases to 6k cases in one day. Many such cases!
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Dec 22, 2021 00:40
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So it appears that the South Africa excess death reports have been updated and I don't believe it's been posted here yet. If I'm reading the graph right, for the week of December 5th through 11th, there were 1501 excess deaths over the expected amount, of which 151 were attributed to covid. For the week of December 12th through 18th, there were 2602 excess deaths, of which 229 were attributed to covid. Gauteng's excess deaths were 616 (104 attributed to covid) for the 12th-18th versus 235 (65 attributed to covid) for the week before. So it sounds like a
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Dec 22, 2021 23:23
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 Link here, again
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Dec 22, 2021 23:27
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RoboChrist 9000 posted:We already know COVID is a very bad thing and out of control, but how do those numbers compare against prior Delta waves and what we would have expected to see if it was just Delta? Like are these numbers suggesting that - at least in terms of death - Omicron is milder? The week of July 11th was their delta peak (which wasn't their worst peak, beta(?) hit them harder back the week of Jan 10th and caused 16,115 excess deaths) with 10,325 excess deaths, of which 2538 were attributed to covid. The curve is just starting to inflect up, so it's way too early to tell anything about whether this is milder. They won't report again for two weeks, they're skipping next week's report because of the holidays
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Dec 22, 2021 23:31
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Worldometer has South Africa reporting 21,098 new cases today by the way. I don't know what's going on with their numbers but their curve is jagged as all hell and I think it's way too soon to claim that they've peaked.
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Dec 22, 2021 23:37
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Gauteng reported 3810 cases today (if I'm reading their site right, I can't find a clean table of the data), 3330 yesterday, 1890 on Monday, versus 5855 last Friday. Extremely jagged numbers.
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Dec 22, 2021 23:47
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Slightly over 21K cases in South Africa today on Worldometer, basically identical to yesterday. I hope they don't have a holiday data blackout until January the way the U.S. is about to, but I'm not counting on it, since they're skipping next week's excess death report.
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Dec 23, 2021 22:04
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icantfindaname posted:Lol no, long covid will be portrayed as another roadblock to Normalcy that the media will collectively decide doesn't exist Nothing to do with long covid, that's the infection-to-death timeline. 8 weeks is on the long side, mostly it has seemed to be more like 5 or 6 weeks. Probably a little quicker for delta. A patient who gets infected today who ends up dying from their infection will probably die around the end of January.
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Dec 23, 2021 23:55
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