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Which horse film is your favorite?
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Black Beauty 2 1.06%
A Talking Pony!?! 4 2.13%
Mr. Hands 2x Apple Flavor 117 62.23%
War Horse 11 5.85%
Mr. Hands 54 28.72%
Total: 188 votes
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VitalSigns
Sep 3, 2011
Probation
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UCS Hellmaker posted:

I'm so loving tired

What percentage of your patients demand ivermectin, roughly

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VitalSigns
Sep 3, 2011
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Speaking of one of my friends already had covid and says he's not antivax and he thinks the vaccine isn't dangerous for most people but he's heard that it is dangerous for people who already had the virus so he personally won't get the shot.

Is there any actual data that anyone has seen showing this isn't true that I could show him on the off chance it convinces him to get the drat vaccine. I mean I guess he has some amount of immunity but still...

VitalSigns
Sep 3, 2011
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I get the extra caution before starting clinical trials on kids, what I don't get is the mindboggling contrast between that and the blasé attitude almost our whole society has toward exposing kids to covid-19 because "eh kids can't get it"

We have to be ultra careful that the mRNA we're injecting into them doesn't cause some terrible reaction, okay sure yes fine, but then we're just sending them to school and letting them breathe in clouds of virus that infect their cells and force them to crank out all kinds of proteins that have never undergone clinical trials in humans at all


E: not to like call you our or whatever, just I don't see how both these things can be true


How are u posted:

I definitely think it would have been nice to hold off in-person schooling for kids in age ranges ineligible for the vaccine, but like the whole of the voting public has been for opening schools. Democrats, Republicans, blue states, red states. There hasn't been some huge culture war over it, everybody seems to have wanted them open.

How are u posted:

We want to be careful with our kids.

VitalSigns fucked around with this message at 05:21 on Sep 15, 2021

VitalSigns
Sep 3, 2011
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Kill a bunch of kids versus two years of remote schooling weren't and aren't the only options though.

We also could have made school safer by not opening er up, wasn't even considered.

One of the tougher things to come to terms with in all this at least for me is that we don't value what we say we value.

E: ahh I'm on my phone, someone spot me a pet tax stat

VitalSigns fucked around with this message at 06:10 on Sep 15, 2021

VitalSigns
Sep 3, 2011
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Dwelling on the possibility of new variants isn't a healthy thing to do as an individual, but the idea that therefore policymakers should just assume nothing bad will ever happen and neither take those possibilities into account nor prepare for them is nuts.

Should you personally live in terror of another variant undoing all the progress we've made with vaccination, probably not. Should Biden therefore ignore the possibility and pursue policies that make new variants even more likely (by not quarantining travelers, and by shrugging and letting the virus spread uncontrollably in unvaccinated populations because 'they made their choice so they deserve it') mmm, gonna also say no he should probably not.

VitalSigns
Sep 3, 2011
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How are u posted:

e: I don't think anybody is making excuses for Trump itt ^^^

Pretty much. I imagine that a lot of goons who despair over masks live in chud-run states where nobody ever followed the rules for more than a month or two in 2020. That sucks, but in other parts of the country people are happy to follow the rules for public health.

No doubt but maybe national policymakers should care about everyone in the nation, not just those living in arbitrary political subdivisions that happened to cast their electoral votes for the president?

I don't think the fact that some people were smart enough to ignore the reckless guidance from an administration more concerned with number-go-up than pubic health excuses the reckless guidance

E: I mean when you get down to it how is that why different from what Trump was doing when he shirked the responsibility for a coordinated national policy and was just like "whatever if you die it's your governor's fault i guess"

VitalSigns
Sep 3, 2011
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Mellow Seas posted:

It’s not a matter of “not caring,” VS, it’s a matter of Biden not having dictatorial powers to make people comply with government directives. Biden has been emphatic as hell about everyone getting the vaccine, no equivocation or bad CDC guidance there, and a hundred million people still refuse.

He obviously has the power, he just used OSHA to mandate testing and/or vaccines in nearly every business in the country. He could have mandated masks the same way at any time.

I'm getting awfully tired of people making up nonsense about how the government is powerless when I constantly see the president doing things I've been assured were impossible when he actually wants to do it. Stop making excuses for lack of will from politicians.

VitalSigns
Sep 3, 2011
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KittyEmpress posted:

I think another thing to note is that we knew about the "Indian Variant" that would become known as Delta in April - well, actually, we knew about it even earlier, since as the article mentions, the first case of it was recorded in October of 2020.


Yeah that too, the delta variant was known about, and the danger was discussed itt when Biden's CDC announced that vaccinated people can go back to sucking and loving in a Denny's bathroom.

There's no way to make the case they couldn't possibly have known, it was well known, a lot of people predicted that exactly this would happen, they were all blown off by those within government and without who preferred to rely on wishful thinking and unicorn farts.

Which frankly is pretty much what the US government has been doing all along, all the way back to April 2020 and Trump saying to ignore it because maybe it will just magically go away by itself on Easter weekend wouldn't that be a wonderful miracle folks.

VitalSigns fucked around with this message at 00:35 on Sep 16, 2021

VitalSigns
Sep 3, 2011
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Levitate posted:

Yeah, it differs from person to person obviously but even the idea of "well the government should just pay everyone enough to stay home and take care of kids!" is poorly thought out and would put a huge hardship on parents. For one, lots of people can't just pause their jobs, or don't WANT to pause their jobs. Unless the government could literally tell every business and institution in the country to halt everything their doing and not let any of their workers work, then you end up disadvantaging people who have to stop working to care for their kids. Even if there's some law that their jobs have to be waiting for them, how many people do you think are gonna get hosed over when they go back to their job and have lost responsibility and promotion possibilities (this is not new at all, it happens to women all the time when they have kids!)
The solution to this is the same solution Scandinavian countries have to the maternity leave problem: apply it to both parents and make it mandatory.

Also do zero covid policies so you have to lock down for a week or two when there's a quarantine escape, like New Zealand or China does. A month at most at first maybe since we negligently let covid rage out of control.

I think part of the failure of imagination here is that as Americans we had to live under a government that just doesn't give a poo poo, so we had to isolate ourselves from friends and family and events for over a year while pestilence ravaged the land, so when we hear about closing down businesses we think "but that's unsustainable, you can't shut everything down for a whole year", but of course if you do it right you don't need to lock down indefinitely. You crush community spread, build out the ability to test and trace quarantine escapes, then open back up.

The reason we're all trapped in open-ended indefinite covid hell is because our leaders decided to prioritize quarterly number-go-up over public health

VitalSigns fucked around with this message at 19:38 on Sep 16, 2021

VitalSigns
Sep 3, 2011
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HelloSailorSign posted:

Zero COVID is not possible with how our Federal, states, and local governments work, and arguably with the infectious capability of current strains, and wishing it were so does not change that fact. The Federal government does not have that power.

Thinking that we can make a mandatory parental leave program is also similarly out of touch with reality - not only is that something that has a snowball's chance in Death Valley of being implemented, it would also put a lot of parents further behind in the ways our economy/businesses function.

I don't really believe you because I was constantly assured the federal government couldn't mandate vaccines then Biden did it, so this seems like just excuses for inaction.

But I do agree America is horribly broken and a million people just have to die of covid because of it.

VitalSigns
Sep 3, 2011
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Mississippi just took the crown of deadliest state on worldometer



New York lost the #3 spot to Louisiana

Just unbelievable how much damage these antivax con men are doing

VitalSigns
Sep 3, 2011
Probation
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LionArcher posted:


Climate change will take everything down sooner rather than later, but COVID sort of was a booster shot of a system break down.

A bunch of privileged posters in here will continue to say things are not great but could be a lot worse. And that’s true. But they will say that for the next 20 years until things truly have just collapsed.
...
Who gives a poo poo when we’re at two thousand + a day dying from something because assholes demand to return to normal?

Not to mention all the brown and black woman/non binary going missing and nobody gives a poo poo.

wow I had to triple-check your username to make sure this post was really by you, when did you crack-ping

VitalSigns
Sep 3, 2011
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Yeah I'm pretty sure the deal is they help you fight off the disease early by providing you antibodies you don't have yet. If you wait to get them until you're already well into fighting the disease, your body is already turning out millions of antibodies so what is a few more gonna do

Anyway I misread that headline three times and couldn't figure out why a Republican government would withhold monoclonals from its own unvaccinated voting base or why we were supposed to be mad about it, then I finally realized that they're banning vaccinated people from treatment

VitalSigns
Sep 3, 2011
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Yeah turns out the most cost-effective anti-suicide program is just giving people enough money to live

VitalSigns
Sep 3, 2011
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HonorableTB posted:

Having to use multiple illegal VPNs to access non-state internet would suck and that's not even getting into the social credit 1984 poo poo. China is not some utopian paradise, they have/had mobile execution vans for fucks sake

I've heard in some countries a number in a database somewhere determines whether someone can go to school or acquire transportation or even housing! Chilling nightmare stuff.

VitalSigns
Sep 3, 2011
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30 minute chickpea masala is one of my lockdown go-to's. The only hard-to-find thing is vegan yogurt, but if you're not vegan (I'm not), just serve it with regular yogurt, or don't bother serving it with yogurt at all.

https://www.makingthymeforhealth.com/one-pot-chickpea-tiki-masala/

Make a few days' worth at once to save time.

VitalSigns
Sep 3, 2011
Probation
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And what's up with jogging trails, why bother when you can run laps around your bedroom.

Why go to a pool or the lake with a bunch of strangers I mean you have a bathtub right there?

VitalSigns
Sep 3, 2011
Probation
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Thank god, the last holdouts against dying for the Dow have capitulated, it's the end of history and the perfect politicoeconomic system has arrived.

VitalSigns
Sep 3, 2011
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Yeah despite what the media and the corporations and the Trump/Biden administrations tell us, you can't actually bargain with natural phenomena or mathematical functions. If you choose to pursue policies that drive Rt below 1.0 the pandemic dies out, if you don't, daily new cases explode and everything that comes along with that, like death rates among marginalized and immunocompromised people.

Thousands of people in New Zealand are going to die now because of this decision, if you don't like hearing that maybe your problem is with the policy, not the people pointing out the reality of what will happen?

Like, I get the attractiveness of wishful thinking. I also wish the virus wouldn't infect people because it's Easter or because the good people wore their masks until they sat down at the table at Denny's. Unfortunately, that's not what happened and we've already cooked up a variant that's more infectious than OG covid-19 exactly because we succumbed to wishful thinking and let her rip.

And I don't really get the angry responses, you guys won you should be happy? The markets are at all time highs and nobody is even trying to stop the pandemic anymore, you won. Take that victory lap, rational policy prevailed or whatever.

VitalSigns
Sep 3, 2011
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No I think people are arguing for trying to bargain somehow with exponential growth under the optimistic hope that this will allow countries to focus on maintaining the economy without paying the cost in sickness and death, I thought my post was pretty clear?

VitalSigns
Sep 3, 2011
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enki42 posted:


Also "no one is trying to stop the pandemic anymore, you won" is pretty clear that you think everyone in this thread wants all restrictions to stop or doesn't think COVID is worth trying to fight, which is just a completely bonkers read of how this thread has gone.

No I think I was pretty clear that I think some people are hoping we don't actually have to do what is necessary to fight covid, and that either an Rt below 1.0 will happen anyway or an Rt above 1.0 will somehow not be a problem, because then we can justify prioritizing the market. Idk how else to phrase it to resolve this misunderstanding but there it is.

And I said you won because you did? Every liberal democracy is doing some version of the policy you want now, the last irrational holdouts finally admitted it's all for the best.

E: to Fritz, clearly it is possible because China is still doing it, not doing it is a deliberate choice. What do you think would happen if covid had smallpox level mortality, would we just throw up our hands and let our civilizations be completely destroyed? Probably not right. A cost benefit analysis has been done by the people in power and covid isn't an existential threat to either our civilization or their position in it so the conclusion is that zero covid just isn't worth doing.

VitalSigns fucked around with this message at 22:17 on Oct 4, 2021

VitalSigns
Sep 3, 2011
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enki42 posted:

Right, it's more the second part of the statement, the "doesn't think COVID is worth trying to fight". Yes, a lot of countries are trying to strike a balance between keeping case counts low and raising and lowering restrictions to maintain that, especially since the evidence shows that the only way to get to zero is probably infeasible in western democracies. But that's not "not fighting COVID". It's fighting COVID less than you would personally like, maybe?

I apologize I must still not be expressing myself clearly, let me try an analogy.

With climate change, I don't think it's a binary choice between "policies to achieve net zero carbon before total climate disaster" and " gently caress the earth roll coal as hard as possible just for the lulz". For example, here's one possible third option: wring our hands about how something must be done while pursuing policies that won't reach net zero but will at least look and feel like someone is doing something (in other words, the policy our leaders have actually chosen).

I don't think that most people, and certainly not anyone in this thread or in D&D (except maybe Arkane lol) actually wants to destroy the climate in 50 years. I do think all the people in power want to destroy the climate (or rather profit off of doing it), and I think there's an awful lot of people who accept the rationalizations the powerful relentlessly push out through corporate media, government organs etc, that net zero carbon is too hard and irrational and that somehow as long as we say we care about the climate really hard that somehow net zero carbon won't be necessary and everything will just work out somehow anyway.

VitalSigns
Sep 3, 2011
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Charles 2 of Spain posted:

Are the "people in power" in this analogy supposed to be the NZ government?

The 1%. Which most 'democratic' governments eventually obey more or less on the issues most critical to the interests of the 1%

The NZ democracy resisted them for a shockingly long time but as you note they eventually capitulated. With essentially the same strategy as everywhere, gently caress it up with inadequate countermeasures then use that as an excuse to stop trying. Same thing happened in the US right, we were assured masks and lockdowns weren't needed anymore because the vaccine is a magical silver bullet, all the epidemiologists saying this was wrong and that delta couldn't be stopped even with 90% vaccination rates were ignored, people agreeing with the science were mocked, and whoops now delta is everywhere so it's too late to do anything anyway which is what the people pushing for inadequate policy always wanted in the first place.

We'll see this in climate change too, once oil companies can plausibly claim it's too late to stop it now anyway, that will be the new reason that we don't do anything, because hey we need to focus on mitigation now and what do we need to make mitigation possible? A strong economy! The revenues from a strong economy will not actually be used for mitigation beyond reinforcing the summer homes of the 1%

VitalSigns
Sep 3, 2011
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I don't see how the arguments "lockdowns can't stop delta from spreading" and "you can keep Rt below 1.0 while easing restrictions" can possibly be logically compatible.

Like I get we'd all like to pick whatever argument is convenient for the moment, but at least wait a page before flipping from one to the other idk.

But I guess this is just reinforcing what I said above about wishful thinking, that it will just magically go away anyway even after we give up and say there's no point to zero covid policy anymore.

VitalSigns fucked around with this message at 23:54 on Oct 4, 2021

VitalSigns
Sep 3, 2011
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cr0y posted:

If you could hypothetically get a population to 100% vaccination rate would that halt the outbreak based on our understand of VE overtime?

If the vaccine is 100% effective (so no breakthrough infections) then yes.

If not (and it isn't) then it depends on the efficacy of the vaccine. The immunity threshold depends on R0, and the formula is straightforward, comes right out of exponential functions.

Immunity threshold = 1-(1/R0)

So for an R0 of 3 (OG covid-19) the vaccine would need to be 67% effective at stopping infection and transmission for 100% vaccination to stop the outbreak.

Delta variant is currently estimated at somewhere between 6 and 7, so would require 83% to 86% effectiveness if absolutely every single person were vaccinated.

VitalSigns
Sep 3, 2011
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enki42 posted:

They can be logically compatible as soon as you realize that Rt varies even within a country and it's not a strict mathematical "every single person transmits COVID to exactly X people" thing. You can have pockets of cases that can be very difficult to completely remove, whether it's due to age cohorts (say school-aged children dropping at a much lower rate than adults), less vaccinated regions, less compliance with restrictions in certain areas / groups, etc.

On top of that, you can usually get to the point where your Rt is lowering months before you get to actually having 0 cases, particularly in places where COVID has widespread community spread. If you take into account that there's going to be additional waves, and additional variants, making sensible adjustments to NPIs (I agree with you that 'masks off everyone!' is not a reasonable adjustment) can make sense and even help with compliance over "stay locked in your houses until we have 0 cases, even if what you want to do is considered safe by virtually any expert and nearly all hospitalizations are coming from unvaccinated cases ignoring rules"

This doesn't make any sense and you're fundamentally misunderstanding something somewhere. It can't be true that you can maintain R0 below 1.0 and also that zero covid policies don't work. If you are maintaining R0 below 1.0 then you are accomplishing zero covid policy by definition because that is what zero covid policy means because any new outbreak (by an imported case that escaped quarantine or whatever) will die out.

Your argument against lockdown is that cases spread anyway regardless (R0 > 1), this simply cannot logically coexist with your other argument that easing restrictions will still maintain R0 < 1

E: it is true that Rt can temporarily dip below 1, for example what happened in the US last winter as a consequence of holiday travel ending and a whole fuckton of people getting infected over the holidays and becoming immune, but that's different from policy that can maintain it below 1, obviously the policy did not do that, and there's pretty much what we see everywhere. We'll see that in NZ too, waves of infection and mass deaths, followed by a retreat, erroneous claims that it's over and we can relax restrictions more, then it comes roaring back and we get claims that restrictions are pointless so we may as well relax them more, etc

VitalSigns fucked around with this message at 00:23 on Oct 5, 2021

VitalSigns
Sep 3, 2011
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enki42 posted:

Assume that getting from reducing cases to 0 takes some time (due to all the reasons I mentioned). Also assume that governments don't have superpowers and adding restrictions takes time to implement. It's not that difficult to see how you can have long periods of a very slow reduction in cases, something occurring (new variant, seasonal waves, slightly too aggressive reductions in restrictions) that pushes Rt above 1, which tends to grow cases fast, and then working that back down again. I think the only real difference in our arguments is that literally getting to zero is unrealistic and might be counterproductive given delta (since indefinite full lockdowns will eventually push people to abandon all NPIs)

Plenty of places outside of NZ, Australia and China have seen long periods where Rt remained below 1. That's the entire reason we talk about waves of the virus. Otherwise we'd just be increasing all the time. Different countries have reacted to cases rising again with different levels of urgency, which has had a clear impact on how bad those waves were. None of these countries got COVID to zero and kept it there. There are more places in the world than China and the US. I'm not saying you can indefinitely maintain
Right that is what I am saying, without a central policy to maintain R0 below 1 whenever a quarantine escape happens, then it will become endemic and we'll have waves of mass infection and death, followed by retreats due to a mix of behavior changes from seasonal factors and reaction to the rising case rates and infected people either dying or getting immunity, followed by a new resurgence as people react to that and new non-immune people are born or age up into getting it at school, over and over, concentrated in the most vulnerable sections of society of course.

It's happened all over the world, and now that you've won it will happen in New Zealand and Singapore too, job well done I say.

VitalSigns
Sep 3, 2011
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I feel like D&D needs a thread on game theory, because just a very basic explanation of a game called Prisoners' Dilemma would correct the errors in reasoning that leads someone to conclude that because some players decided it was to their advantage to defect that this means that everyone analyzed the game and all concluded that they prefer the "both players defect" outcome to anything else.

I get a lot of people aren't familiar with it, which is why we keep seeing the erroneous conclusion that because public health measures that weren't enforced were ignored, that this means everyone wanted their mee-maw to die and deliberately chose the course of action most likely to cause that outcome.

VitalSigns fucked around with this message at 02:18 on Oct 5, 2021

VitalSigns
Sep 3, 2011
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Platystemon posted:

I saw a similar thing in the wild recently.



It turns out that all these qualified people were playing a game of telephone with prewar tuberculosis studies. They did not have fresh and independent reasons for the pronouncement that one to two metres was good enough. Oops.

Yeah and this was disproven by case studies pretty much immediately too, plenty of examples of covid travelling more than 6 feet in restaurants, airplanes, office buildings, etc. There was even that guy recently who was infected in a quarantine hotel by someone even though he'd never been in their presence at all, just walked through a hallway they'd been in.

Not that it's useless and therefore you may as well start frenching every covid case in the tri-state area, it may be that in aggregate transmission is reduced if everyone stays six feet away at all times (is there any good actionable data on that though), but it isn't a magic conjuror's circle that stops covid dead as long as you follow the rules. Yet policies were created as if it were in an attempt to rules-lawyer a virus. Schools are perfectly safe as long as everyone stays 6 3 feet away. An exposure is 15 minutes, so if we all rotate desks every 14 minutes then there's zero "exposures" and no need to do any quarantining or testing or tracing if a case shows up.

And of course the loud minority of parents demanding we stop testing completely, can't have any outbreaks if there aren't any positive test results right guys.

VitalSigns
Sep 3, 2011
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Illuminti posted:

I'm not really sure it's possible without reworking society from the ground up. Lockdown is fairly simple. The only real way to stop spread, especially before we had a vaccine and after delta, was to dramatically restrict movement and contact with as few exceptions as possible. You have to essentially cut off all vectors for the virus until it literally doesn't exist in your area.
Yeah not how it works.

Yeah this is the standard propaganda line crafted to take advantage of people's poor understanding of exponential functions (no doubt where you heard it from), but actually the way you eliminate covid is hold R0 below 1.0, then exponential decay makes the virus burn out, the lower you get R0 the faster it works. And exponentials decay (or grow) much faster than you'd expect, that's why most people kept getting taken totally by surprise by the explosions in case numbers every time R0 went up, even though it was obvious what would happen and we were warned by epidemiologists. Also why China's success against the virus even though it started there and spread undetected for much longer was such a surprise to many people, exponentials are rather unintuitive to meat computers that evolved to count predators on the savannah etc.

Illuminti posted:

Vectors are people so you have to stop them contacting other vectors and there's no other way than lockdown. I'm sure no one in this thread is unaware that this hits poorer people the worst so 100% they should have been given so much more support.
Yeah this is the real reason stopping covid was always impossible under our system. The only way to keep it from spreading through marginalized groups is to back off the exploitation so much that it interferes with the system (the system, of course, by design to exploit and extract labor and wealth from the bottom and funnel it up to the top). Obviously the cost-benefit isn't there, the cost is according to most serious people absolutely absurd (ie, interfere with profit for the 1% by a negligible amount), and since the benefit is approximately zero (saving the lives of poor people that again all serious people rate as next to worthless) the calculus is clear.

Illuminti posted:

But when a lockdown is hitting 200+ days it's starting to become untenable even if they were getting the appropriate support.

[citation needed]
Jeff Bezos is on his way to being a trillionaire, there's plenty of resources available to support the working class. Hell most work is totally unecessary, just bullshit jobs to keep alive the idea that anyone who didn't inherit a fortune has to justify their existence by slaving away. But if you mean ideologically untenable for you, yeah obviously

VitalSigns
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freebooter posted:

You do realise you are talking to people who have spent more time under lockdown than any other people on the planet?

I don't see what that has to do about the assertion that the resources don't exist to support poor people. That just seems like a statement of physcial fact that has nothing to do with how much time any individual spent under lockdown.

Also I wasn't talking to you?

VitalSigns
Sep 3, 2011
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freebooter posted:

Supporting poor people doesn't prevent Delta from spreading through essential workers

Do you think these things are unrelated?

Why are essential workers forced to work under unsafe conditions during a pandemic where they're getting sick and dying?

Hospital staff have to work with covid patients all day and while some of them die and the risk isn't even zero, why aren't they a nucleus of infection making zero covid impossible? Because enough precaution and safety is implemented to ensure that they aren't all spreading it to each other and their families and kicking off new clusters of infection everywhere.

VitalSigns
Sep 3, 2011
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freebooter posted:

There have been plenty of medical transmission sites in Australia over the past few months. When they happen, they do spread it to their families - the health authorities here have stressed that the difference between OG COVID and Delta is that Delta results in near-100% household transmission.


I didn't say it didn't ever happen, I said they aren't the reason why the government is unable to eliminate it.

We could make workplaces for poor people just as safe, safe enough to keep it from spreading through marginalized groups anyway. But nobody wants to spend resources on that, even though we're all in the same boat, we can't atomize ourselves out of a pandemic, letting poor people get sick and die is dangerous to us too, etc.

VitalSigns
Sep 3, 2011
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Illuminti posted:

I feel like that's exactly what I just described....I know how R0 and exponential decay works, and you might be surprised that lesser meat computers like myself can struggle to that level. So what you're saying is we just need to get the R0 below zero. Why didn't we just do that then, seems simple and then we wouldn't have had to lock down, right!!?

You seem to have missed a step. The holding R0 below 1.0 bit.......which you do by stopping people spreading it to each other.

Right, the part you got wrong is where you said that this can no longer happen if you have "too many" cases. That's not how it works, no matter where you start from, the function works there same way. If R0 is below 1, the virus dies out, if it's above 1 cases go up. There's no number of cases where it makes sense to go "oh ok that's too many cases, let's relax and let cases go up even faster"


freebooter posted:

You can certainly make it safer but you can't make it safe enough for a lockdown to drive Delta down to elimination. This isn't hypothetical, it's what's playing out right now in real world jurisdictions to the point where those jurisdictions have officially abandoned their COVID-zero policies.

Yes you can, if you devote enough resources you can make workplaces for the safe enough. Liberal democracies made much more radical changes to their workforce and economies to win world war 2.

What you mean is that no liberal democracy wants to do that. It would be expensive, it would cut into profits, it would give labor too much power, businesses would complain, it would be a bigger threat to the status quo than covid (unlike in world war 2 where the Axis were a bigger threat to the status quo), etc. You're not making statements about physical or logistical possibility, because it's possible. What you're saying is *sniiiifffff* pure ideology

VitalSigns
Sep 3, 2011
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Main Paineframe posted:

Because the work they're doing is, in fact, essential, and because it's extremely hard to force human beings to maintain safe conditions under a highly contagious pandemic. Yes, I said force. Just look at how there's a noticeable amount of vaccine refusal even among professional healthcare workers. Just look at how many quarantine breaches in Australia and NZ have been caused by quarantine workers themselves getting too intimate with the people they're enforcing quarantine on. Even in fields where the importance of COVID is considered paramount, consistently maintaining compliance with safety measures has been difficult.

Oh for sure you're right about what you're saying, but I think you're confusing zero transmission (impossible) with keeping workplace transmission low enough that factory workers and their communities don't become vectors of uncontrollable spread (possible)

Hospital workers sometimes gently caress patients, sometimes get infected by patients even if they aren't loving them, but there are workplace PPE and safety protocols in place to ensure everyone working at the hospital doesn't get it if one person does, doctors and nurses don't live in poor marginalized communities that lack societal support to stop outbreaks when they occur etc. The same can't be said for workers in say chicken processing plants where management might even bet on how many are going to die. You could apply the protective policies we have in hospitals to meat packing plants etc but nobody is really interested in spending the money, cutting into profits, etc

Ultimately it turned out delta is so infectious you can't stop it without treating immigrant and working class communities like human beings, and it appears despite their admirable adherence to lockdowns thus far, not even NZ or Australia have the political will to go so far as to back off the exploitation of the poor enough.

VitalSigns fucked around with this message at 14:41 on Oct 5, 2021

VitalSigns
Sep 3, 2011
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How are u posted:

I mean one could kind of argue that the CCP has sort of done it, utilizing their intense media control and willingness to back up mandates with military force.

That some people look at what's happened over there and say "ah that's the ticket, that's the way!" is their own choice, but I don't think the tradeoff is worth it, personally.

Thank god we killed 700,000+ people instead

VitalSigns
Sep 3, 2011
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Lol if you don't think advertising and propaganda is deployed to control Americans' minds.

VitalSigns
Sep 3, 2011
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We just saw a huge propaganda operation funded by the 1% to convince Americans that covid is a fake disease and just the flu, and that even if it is real anyone asking you to put off buying your treats for the common good is stealing your freedom or whatever.

The nice advertising men on the teevee and the computer made people believe that liberty is synonymous with fried egg rolls at the Cheesecake Factory. But this is not villainous or concerning because it was done by our richest, and therefore most trustworthy, citizens and for upright noble motives like profit, not for alien and suspicious motivations like saving other people's lives.

VitalSigns
Sep 3, 2011
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Owlofcreamcheese posted:

Other Americans though, right? Your thoughts are all pure and unclouded, right?

No one is immune to propaganda

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VitalSigns
Sep 3, 2011
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Illuminti posted:

Well it is how it works in reality. Not a capitalist paradigm or whatever, objective reality. i.e if you have so many cases that the only way to get R0 < 1 is to cease food delivery, close hospitals, and ban all forms of transportation then yeah, there's to many cases.

No that's not how exponentials work.

the only thing that matters is how many people the average infected person goes on to infect. If it's more than one, cases grow exponentially, if it's less than one cases decay exponentially. The starting point doesn't matter. If you have 10 cases and they each infect less than one person, cases fall. If you have a million cases and they each infect less than one person cases still fall.

E:

freebooter posted:

You seem to be under the strange impression that Delta is only spreading through a) low-income workplaces, and b) low-income workplaces.

Capitalism has been a huge driver of a lot of the issues we've seen behind COVID spread, in Australia and New Zealand as much as anywhere else. It is not the sole driver. Fallible human behaviour is, both in workplaces and in the broader community, and no amount of fully automated gay luxury space communism is going to be enough to prevent the spread of a variant as infectious as Delta.
This would seem to be incorrect, since the reasoning given that elimination is impossible is that it's spreading through marginalized groups. In other words, it's not inherent human genetics at fault, but social conditions specific to those groups.

E2: citation
https://www.nytimes.com/2021/10/04/world/australia/new-zealand-covid-zero.html

quote:

Minimizing Auckland’s outbreak has been complicated by a surge of cases among vulnerable people, including those living in emergency or transitional housing, said Dr. Michael Baker, an epidemiologist at the University of Otago.
“We should have recognized the entrenched transmission in marginalized and deprived groups — that’s what basically sustained the outbreak,” he said. “That transmission is relatively impervious to the alert level system and the restrictions, because these are people in a precarious position.”

VitalSigns fucked around with this message at 01:00 on Oct 6, 2021

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