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RIP Syndrome
Feb 24, 2016


Legend

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RIP Syndrome
Feb 24, 2016

Paradoxish posted:

I wish I had some specific examples to show what I'm talking about, but has anyone noticed lib media starting to grab onto the idea that controlling methane emissions might be a loophole out of this? I've overheard a few bits and pieces of stories lately where the general gist is that methane is bad and impacts the climate more quickly, so all we have to do is limit methane output and that could free up enough of our carbon budget to dump decades more of CO2 into the air before we have to do anything!

I'm kinda wondering if this is why world leaders suddenly have a fixation on CH4.

I think it's because CH4 emissions have recently (in human caused climate change time scales meaning a vast ~10 years ago) started skyrocketing in addition to CO2. And like, you gotta have a story with a villain, and you can only have one villain at a time, and people are tired of the old one.

RIP Syndrome
Feb 24, 2016



Hey Bernie, we fixed it

RIP Syndrome
Feb 24, 2016


ECONOMY increased by 50%

RIP Syndrome
Feb 24, 2016


Thanks for that, I guess.

RIP Syndrome
Feb 24, 2016

Car Hater posted:

Critical mass imo, habitats are too fractured and monoculture is too pervasive to maintain breeding populations in the face of all the chemicals etc, and so we've hit the Seneca cliff for bugs.

I suspect what's happening or about to happen is the phase transition effect observed in robust network topologies wherein you can keep removing nodes without the functioning of the network as a whole declining by much up to a certain point, after which collapse accelerates exponentially.

It happens in computer networks, financial networks, supply chains, societies, human brains, and ecosystems.

E.g. for a supply chain there may be a period where out-of-business manufacturers of a specific widget can be replaced with others (at a cost to efficiency due to transportation needs, increased stress on remaining supply, etc), but eventually you may not be able to find one at all, or one that makes economic sense. Then the collapse starts to cascade.

Or: For an Alzheimer's sufferer, the symptoms may be fairly mild at first. As neuron connectivity decreases, they may get progressively more forgetful over the course of a decade, then suddenly they run out of slack as subsequent connectivity loss starts segmenting the network into mutually unconnected islands. In the span of a year they go from basically functioning to no longer being able to recognize themselves in a mirror.

In a simulation it looks like this:

Synapse loss and progress of Alzheimer’s disease - A network model posted:



During this time, the LSCC is still very robust and spans the entire network. During the later stages of decay, the slope abruptly increases. This is the point where the network begins to fall apart and the disconnected components begin to appear and loss of connecting paths dominates over loss of efficiency of existing paths.

Ecosystem and habitat loss works the same way.

Multiple interdependent networks may be less robust: https://arxiv.org/abs/0907.1182

Pollinators specifically: https://doi.org/10.1111/ele.12236

RIP Syndrome
Feb 24, 2016

Plastic is just the planet's amyloid plaque, in a million years aliens'll dig it up and be like yeah this killed the patient, but where did it come from?

RIP Syndrome
Feb 24, 2016

bobmarleysghost posted:

it's a good video for people who watch that channel's videos to see, but the end of the message is still funny - "vote", "we need politicians to change laws and massively invest in innovation".

It still ends with saying that You need to do your part.

It's also sponsored by Bil Gates

Yeah, it lists a bunch of things, explains how they don't work and then says to do them anyway. The creators couldn't think of a realistic solution because there isn't one.

RIP Syndrome
Feb 24, 2016

Serf posted:

it feels like their conclusion was thrown in there because they couldn't not have one. the rest of the paper does not lead one to the conclusion that having more donkeys is going to solve the problem

This is every honest analysis that also needs to pass the "not doomer" filter now.

RIP Syndrome
Feb 24, 2016


Rich people voting with their wallets. We are solving climate change more and more! It is good to solve climate change.

RIP Syndrome
Feb 24, 2016

Communist Thoughts posted:

https://www.mdpi.com/1996-1073/14/15/4508/htm

Good deconstruction of the GND

It then goes up its own rear end with "what is to be done? Embrace a satisfying future of manual labour and becoming one with the earth" lol

Forgot to rip on this

quote:

history shows that virtually all important achievements have only ever arisen from a dogged pursuit of the seemingly impossible

I wonder what kind of achievements they're thinking of. Like... All the impressive walls, monuments, buildings, machines, etc. made with free energy from slave labor and/or oil?

RIP Syndrome
Feb 24, 2016

People are still debating what we should do to stop or prevent climate change as if it's something that will happen in the future, but the reality of the situation is that it's already mostly behind us. We failed to prevent it.

RIP Syndrome
Feb 24, 2016

The relevant questions to be asked are increasingly going to come from historians, and instead of something like "what should we do" they'll be along the lines of "what did we do?"

RIP Syndrome
Feb 24, 2016




:mood: as the news come in

RIP Syndrome
Feb 24, 2016

Industrial civilization has a non-zero climate and environmental footprint, but

RIP Syndrome
Feb 24, 2016

Degrowth that doesn't kill everyone is technically possible with a carefully planned economy, but modern civilization is predicated on the idea that planning isn't possible

RIP Syndrome
Feb 24, 2016

Bathtub Cheese posted:

this is just the ecological equivalent of ultraleftism imo

Is that good or bad?

By "technically possible" I mean there's probably an achievable energy budget where we put very little CO2 into the atmosphere and where everyone's still fine but not nearly as comfy as the currently 10% comfiest people on Earth. However, we can't really get there with market-based incentives like increasing the cost of CO2 without ending up in the situation you described previously. With our current energy budget we could probably achieve v. good comfiness for everyone, but we're not doing that either.

RIP Syndrome
Feb 24, 2016

Rectal Death Adept posted:

The problem with rapid degrowth is it just delays us.

Compared to what?

RIP Syndrome
Feb 24, 2016

Rectal Death Adept posted:

If a solar EMP wiped out all power generation worldwide we still have the cities plumbed and wired and the rear end in a top hat desire to pollute put off a few decades.

If a solar storm causes an extreme geomagnetic reaction that causes all industry to short circuit and burst into flame taking the entire concept of technology and anything integrated with it out in fire then that stalls us a few decades more.

If we nuke ourselves and cool the atmosphere we will have pockets of industry waiting for us to adapt to the new radioactive environment assuming we don't make earth entirely uninhabitable.

If yellowstone goes and takes out the worst offenders it buys a little more time with an extreme check on the global temperatures rising.

If you are talking about some situation where humanity becomes benevolent and agrees to do this in an enlightened way to optimize our resources to save the most lives this mythical people still live here.

Dead is dead.

^

Oh, well, I'm not gonna argue against that. What I am arguing, I guess, is that there is a hypothetical state where humans exist and have some form of industry without destroying their ecological niche in the extreme near term. Sure it could still be something like the 100,000 year term, but, well. The sun has enough energy for a good long time, and the Earth's mantle has both vast amounts of energy and more than enough minerals. There are animals, even social animals that practice agriculture, that exist without exceeding the carrying capacity of the land. I think there's no reason why humans (maybe a somewhat different kind of human than we're used to, but still human) could not do the same.

So this state exists, hypothetically. But if you view history as a kind of decision graph, there's no clear path from here to there for human society. Makes the impending doom all the more bittersweet.

RIP Syndrome
Feb 24, 2016

Cold on a Cob posted:

so like Crakers

we prefer the term Biscuit e.g. Totalitarian Biscuit

RIP Syndrome
Feb 24, 2016

mediaphage posted:

lol i was running on the treadmill with my phone in my pocket. it managed to turn on, increment a page, start a new post, type “job” and post.

it seems oddly appropriate.

Honestly didn't make me bat an eye, just thought "lol lmao" to myself and went on with my day

RIP Syndrome
Feb 24, 2016

I picked up some plastic I found on the street and put it in a bin :toot:

RIP Syndrome
Feb 24, 2016

Excuse me, you're not allowed to respond unless you've picked up and properly disposed of at least two pieces of plastic!

RIP Syndrome
Feb 24, 2016


A most palpable loss

RIP Syndrome
Feb 24, 2016

Lotta boomers revealing themselves in this thread

RIP Syndrome
Feb 24, 2016

Covid was a lesson in how society could make some really big changes and tackle a crisis together. Now that it's over, it's a lesson in how we can fail at all of that and the crisis still goes away by itself

RIP Syndrome
Feb 24, 2016

:thejoke:

RIP Syndrome
Feb 24, 2016

It's over when I say it's over.

Also I haven't heard about any wildfires lately

RIP Syndrome
Feb 24, 2016

EvilJoven posted:

I know I fixed it to make it a more rhetorical response to the void, just like the rest of my posts.

Screaming in to the void isn't quite as cathartic as it used to be I either need to up my dose or mix it with booze.

:hfive:

e: If you're on actual medicines, maybe don't do that last part.

RIP Syndrome has issued a correction as of 08:39 on Sep 29, 2021

RIP Syndrome
Feb 24, 2016

Killin_Like_Bronson posted:

If nobody is saying covid is over and then you post that, it sounds like you're being earnest. You advocate for the possibility of a post growth society so its really hard to know what you think are jokes.

I guess it's a duality of man thing. But yeah, point taken.

Countries are definitely reopening, so imo the context is valid: https://edition.cnn.com/2021/09/16/world/covid-countries-opening-up-cmd-intl/

RIP Syndrome
Feb 24, 2016

Son of Rodney posted:

earth is dimming due to climate change

It's about as much more solar radiation staying on earth as the last two decades of human climate forcing. Hahahaha

quote:

The Earth is now reflecting about half a watt less light per square meter than it was 20 years ago, with most of the drop occurring in the last three years.

Cool. So the cloud layer breakdown forecast by the way too pessimist, probably bad new models that was maybe, possibly happening next century in an absolute worst-case scenario:

- Is real
- Started happening in earnest a couple of years ago

lmao

RIP Syndrome
Feb 24, 2016

Jel Shaker posted:

it’s probably because they couldn’t get away with murdering him right now, so that’s some progress for society!

He's in for contempt of court for not giving up all the comms logs, personal info, etc. of his clients. I assume they ordered it for the purpose of sending them all some nice Christmas cards.

RIP Syndrome
Feb 24, 2016

Mr. Dome's wild ride

RIP Syndrome
Feb 24, 2016

In infotech I think 1990s everything getting hooked up to the internet was so huge that everything that's happened since just kind of pales in comparison. That may be part of the reason for the stagnation feeling

RIP Syndrome
Feb 24, 2016

mediaphage posted:

you're not wrong, i think, though it's not all of it.

there's definitely a spreading out of culture that's happened, though that's not "technology." i think there are two big issues that help this feeling along, though - one, we are inundated with so much all the time that i think the major steps are much harder to feel out, and two, you don't have to forget anything anymore. everything is saved, everything you want to watch, read, listen to, you can. it didn't always used to be like this and i think there are fewer (which is not to say none) moments where something acts as a full cultural touchstone experienced by everyone in a country

Also there's the fact that the future is now more unevenly distributed than ever. When you're listing the LHC, new medical therapies and the Musk stuff, there's an asterisk attached to it noting that most of the pop isn't seeing much direct benefit or is even close enough to it that they notice or think about it much.

RIP Syndrome
Feb 24, 2016

MightyBigMinus posted:

in both cases however the failures are GOOD THINGS because it means we ACTUALLY TRIED and ACTUALLY SPENT SOME $ and ACTUALLY BUILT THINGS

This.

I watched that docu when it came out. It dedicates a bunch of time to biofuels and it's basically right about those, and it also points out some of the worst instances of hypocrisy/grift in "green" tech. But it's wrong (or actively deceptive) on many of the details wrt. solar and wind.

From memory, their conclusion (we need to rethink society and draw down consumption) isn't wrong, but they get there by way of "nothing green will ever work!" A more correct take would be something like "there are green solutions that work (even (or maybe especially?) ancient windmills were indisputably energy positive, for instance), but they won't scale in the timeframe we've been dealt (by ourselves), or get a big enough ROI that we can fairly keep living as comfortably/carelessly as we currently do in western societies in the short term."

There's an extremely large amount of money being thrown at low- or negative-ROI fossil fuel activities, idiotic defense tech, etc. We should be using it on projects that have even a tiny chance of making things better instead, and when they don't, at least add to the things we can cross off our list.

e: I should add that what I think ought to happen and what I think will happen are very different things.

RIP Syndrome
Feb 24, 2016

MightyBigMinus posted:

lol the oil spill is canceling the cultural display of our most flagrant and weaponized avatar of fossil fuel consumption

Surprised they're not chomping at the bit to strut their poo poo over yet another rapidly expanding oil/fire ravaged wasteland

RIP Syndrome
Feb 24, 2016

Logging on today with a sudden 30 new messages in the other thread. Oh boy, I'm saving those for last.



the quiet comprehending of the ending of it all

RIP Syndrome
Feb 24, 2016

The shark's doing good work

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RIP Syndrome
Feb 24, 2016

I've been hearing people saying "vote" ironically a lot lately, but listen folks, the problem is that we're not voting enough. I just enabled Apple Pay and now I can vote with my wallet, right there in the app! This week I've voted for Netflix, the power company, and a bank

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