|
Politico says there are four key issues left to resolve in the reconciliation bill: Does PredictIt have a bet going on restoration of the SALT deduction? Because that would seem like easy money, given Pelosi's clamoring for it over the last year.
|
#
¿
Nov 1, 2021 17:00
|
|
|
|
| # ¿ May 10, 2024 05:38 |
|
|
Trazz posted:It would certainly be effective, but it would not be ideal. Like I said, though, let's start with severe social consequences first. Refuse to associate with any right-winger. Make it known that it is in fact because of their worldview. If anyone asks, say "I refuse to associate with someone whose worldview is nothing more than a cover for their bigotry and abusiveness, and you shouldn't either." Imagine millions of people doing this. A sort of "social strike." Better yet, be casual about it. Express it like it's a perfectly normal thing to say. Because it is. Have you done this in your own life? If so, can you describe the method's success & efficacy?
|
|
#
¿
Nov 1, 2021 21:50
|
|
|
Tibalt posted:This is the report that a lot of people were talking about last time this conversation came up. From its first page: "To understand how families were responding to the CTC, we utilized a probability-based online panel to survey a nationally-representative group of 1,514 American parents eligible for the credit. The survey was administered between July 8 and July 13, 2021—immediately before the first CTC payments were delivered. In this summary report, we highlight key findings from the first wave of the study, focusing specifically on how families plan to use CTC payments and their initial perceptions of the expanded credit. The full report, examining the impacts of the CTC on families relative to a comparison group of households ineligible for the CTC, is forthcoming in early 2022." (emph. added) That's quite a difference from the initial claims that it did cut child poverty in half, especially since the mobile app was still fubar as of a few weeks ago, and since initial surveys showed that half of the single parents who needed it the most weren't getting any money. Initial surveys also showed that those most in need were using the money to keep up with inflation, which while a good thing may help explain why Biden's approval rating on economic issues has gone down, and not up, over the four months that parents have been getting the checks. There's also that pesky problem of the govt. telling divorced parents to work out payments between themselves, but there have yet to be studies on how that's shaking out, although I have some ideas.
|
|
#
¿
Nov 1, 2021 22:24
|
|
|
AmiYumi posted:Hey, here’s an idea: instead of starting this bad faith trolling on page three of the new thread, maybe don’t? AmiYumi posted:Try again without cutting out half my post, like every CSPAM poster does every time for mysterious reasons AmiYumi posted:The pattern is there, though - a post gets selectively quoted in CSPAM, then an influx of “new” posters rush in to shitpost here. Not just talking myself - again, it’s an easy to recognize pattern. Hey, could we not do this any more, please? We just got done with a week of hashing out poo poo in the feedback thread & the mods already have taken up some of the suggestions people made, including defusing tensions by putting this thread on slow roll. And the changes seem to be working, for the most part. I'd reckon there are fewer reports being made; there are definitely fewer probations going on; and for the most part everyone is getting along--even when we disagree. Throwing grenades like these don't add to the discussion, and seem counter to the type of environment that we & the mods have agreed we need to work toward. They've also said that the feedback thread will be reopened at some point in the future, so you'll have another opportunity to weigh in publicly if you feel that reporting posts is futile, for whatever reasons. Thanks! 
|
|
#
¿
Nov 1, 2021 23:08
|
|
”
|
I was looking at the RCP polling aggregator for Virginia, and was kind of surprised that T-Mac has never reached 50 percent in this race over the last two months. The closest was on Oct. 8, when he was at 49.8 compared to Youngkin's 46.5. 
|
|
#
¿
Nov 2, 2021 00:25
|
|
|
A big flaming stink posted:@greyjoy, i thought you said we were discarding the thread and forumbans? Just lmao that the guy who can't stop talking about Trump is complaining about Trump fatigue among voters.
|
|
#
¿
Nov 2, 2021 01:56
|
|
|
WAR CRIME GIGOLO posted:Once we get Vasily Sanders to run the revolutionary council we can deal with the likes of manchin. I mean, it's no surprise that with both parties running on "the federal budget is just like your household budget" for the last several decades that it'd become a trope that the government "has to live within its means." I'm still waiting on Catfood Commission 2 to rear its head sometime before the end of the year, given the 70 percent or so of senators who've clamored for it.
|
|
#
¿
Nov 2, 2021 03:02
|
|
|
Hahaha, that's got to be the most dnd post ever, and I say that affectionately. I am not a cat lady so I have no idea of the cost of meow mix these days but I'm sure there will be others weighing in over the next several pages. In any case, I guess there could be alternate nicknames for whatever abortion is generated out of austerity this time, like "Robbing Granny's sugar for their SALT commission."
|
|
#
¿
Nov 2, 2021 04:49
|
|
|
Ciprian Maricon posted:The hemming and hawing about McAuliffe potentially losing just seems divorced from reality here on the ground in VA. My mom asked me about how to vote before she left for a trip and she never votes on state level poo poo, but she wanted to make sure she punched the card for that tremendous loving turd. Wait, who did she vote for? Are you saying that people are being overly optimistic about McAuliffe or that he's sure to win? eta: Thom12255 posted:Frankly, I could see your mother voting for either candidate from this post.  Glad I wasn't the only one.
|
|
#
¿
Nov 2, 2021 15:53
|
|
|
Peter Daou Zen posted:No, it was a vote for the non Democrat. People aren't obligated to vote for ANYBODY. The proper response is to never speak to them again nor grace them with your presence for the holidays. Granny won't learn to vote Dem till she can't pinch your cheeks ever again. Dapper_Swindler posted:no it was before that. partly because of Nimby culture grievance poo poo that resonates with NOVA indies and conservatives and partly media and polls and race tightening. apperently alot of early votes were encouraged to get out and vote because of the fox poll. Which "fox poll"? The Fox News poll that showed Youngkin ahead by 8 last week, or another one? Because the last I saw Dems were outvoting by 2-1 in the early vote.
|
|
#
¿
Nov 2, 2021 16:14
|
|
|
Epinephrine posted:That's only true if you ignore the primary process. One of the stories I read about the Virginia race the other day was how three (two?) Black women ran against T-Mac in the primary & were shut out, and how this might have the effect of depressing the usually reliably Dem vote. And yes, both the GOP & the Dems are running Black women for Lt. Gov. Is Virginia one of those states in which the top of the ticket runs separately, and can result in the split taking office? (ie: GOP governor + Dem lt. gov. or vice versa)
|
|
#
¿
Nov 2, 2021 16:31
|
|
|
The real electoral grifters are the consultants & ad firms, not angry leftists, lol. I think the total amount raised by both Virginia candidates was over $100 million. That McAuliffe's consultants convinced him to spend some of that on ads proclaiming What I Really Said About Schools shows just how bad the grifting goes.
|
|
#
¿
Nov 2, 2021 17:08
|
|
|
Thom12255 posted:https://twitter.com/RepJoshG/status/1455590875116023815 Lmao, called it. Of course it'll be in the final bill, as has been rumored for days and only denied by Leon (who also once swore that 12 weeks of paid family leave would be in the final bill). So will (continued & enhanced) massive government subsidies to private insurers, because donors' wishes count for more than voters'. The drug-price controls are a joke, proven by Menendez's & Gottheimer's stamps of approval. Can't wait to see Dems run next year on "you'll only go bankrupt if you don't have diabetes or the forms of cancer most expensive to treat." vvv That's even funnier, if they announced this lovely deal before locking in a win. Willa Rogers fucked around with this message at 20:40 on Nov 2, 2021 |
|
#
¿
Nov 2, 2021 20:35
|
|
|
Who's melting down? Once again, my predictions were validated, while yours now read like outdated press releases issued by the administration. Let's see how your  explanations roll next year at the polls. 
Willa Rogers fucked around with this message at 20:53 on Nov 2, 2021 |
|
#
¿
Nov 2, 2021 20:50
|
|
|
We don't know "what it is" because it's yet to be passed, but your rosy predictions about how paid leave would stay at 12 weeks & the SALT restoration was DOA were not very accurate. I do hope you were wrong about the IRS reporting requirement when you said that was DOA, too.  Also, can the "meltdown" bullshit. Just because I correctly predicted how the rec bill is shaking out doesn't mean that I need to be 5150'd.
|
|
#
¿
Nov 2, 2021 21:05
|
|
|
Mellow Seas posted:"The results have unequivocally proven me correct -> really we don't know anything because nothing has passed." Whiplash! There's a difference between predicting something will be in the bill & the details on what the bill turns out to be in the end. E.g.: Saying SALT restoration is dead for good, as we were told a week ago, or that 12 weeks of paid family leave isn't, as we were told a couple months ago. eta: I'm happy to pull the receipts on these.
|
|
#
¿
Nov 2, 2021 21:16
|
|
|
NYT writeup on the drug-cost proposal, datelined as of 4:52 EDT:quote:The prescription drug deal is limited. Starting in 2023, negotiations could begin on what Senator Ron Wyden of Oregon called the most expensive drugs — treatments for cancer and rheumatoid arthritis, as well as anticoagulants. Most drugs would still be granted patent exclusivity for nine years before negotiations could start, and more advanced drugs, called biologics, would be protected for 12 years. note: That "cap" on consumer out-of-pocket costs means that the government is further subsidizing pharma, as it already does on other aspects of Part D Medicare. I'm assuming (but don't know) that this is also the case on insulin expenses, mirroring the ACA subsidies that mask the cost of private insurance because of corporate welfare. quote:But the pharmaceutical industry won its share of concessions. The inflation rebates initially contained a “look back” provision that would have assessed rebates on drug prices that began to soar as far back as 2012. That would have yielded one-time levies on drug companies in the billions of dollars. And some Democrats wanted Medicare to have price-negotiating authority immediately, with no patent exclusivity periods. https://web.archive.org/web/20211102212103/https://www.nytimes.com/2021/11/02/us/politics/prescription-drug-prices-medicare.html I don't see this being a huge boon to voters over the next several elections, given that "negotiations could begin" in 2023, and will end up affecting relatively small groups of voters. And, as with the ACA, government subsidies & corporate welfare will have the effect of deferring meaningful change like strict cost controls on manufacturers. eta: Hellblazer187 posted:Yeah, no poo poo. I'll qualify for regular old people Medicare long before I expect the US to expand that coverage to younger people. I'm only being somewhat tongue-in-cheek when I point out that we might get M4A by 2065, the centennial of the original Medicare act. Willa Rogers fucked around with this message at 22:47 on Nov 2, 2021 |
|
#
¿
Nov 2, 2021 22:45
|
|
|
Hellblazer187 posted:Seems like even without M4A they could... do a lot to make this system less punishing for ordinary folks. Obviously they should do M4A, don't get me wrong. I'm just saying a regulated private health insurance system doesn't need to be quite that stupid. Hey, those campaign contributions aren't gonna donate themselves! Speaking of which, looks like opensecrets updated their data thru Q3. Here are the lucky duckies in the Senate:   
|
|
#
¿
Nov 2, 2021 23:37
|
|
|
Neurolimal posted:This has been brought up in leftist circles & media, but the most incredible thing is just how little politicians need to be bribed to become stalwart roadblocks of any meaningful progress for trillion dollar industries. Not if you're the Senate Majority Leader! 
|
|
#
¿
Nov 2, 2021 23:48
|
|
|
Interesting economic data point from the Harvard/Harris poll that was released today:quote:The poll also found that a plurality of respondents — 37 percent — say their personal financial situation is getting worse. Earlier this year, the percentage of those who said their financial situation was improving was on the rise. https://thehill.com/homenews/campaign/579567-biden-approval-drops-to-43-percent-in-new-poll?rl=1
|
|
#
¿
Nov 3, 2021 00:20
|
|
|
Yeah, I thought that was a weird data point, too.
|
|
#
¿
Nov 3, 2021 00:44
|
|
|
Does he mean Youngkin wins by 9 in the state, or just in Radford?
|
|
#
¿
Nov 3, 2021 01:13
|
|
|
BRJohnson posted:I don't understand the consistent focus on Virginia in here (not that it bothers me). Just trying to understand. It's the only state that Biden won that the GOP has a chance (looking more likely by the minute) of winning. Eric Cantonese posted:Just Radford. Try not to get too turned on, Willa. I'm melting down with laughter rn.
|
|
#
¿
Nov 3, 2021 01:26
|
|
|
Sanguinia posted:A frothing nazi that appears on the outside to be calm, reasonable and refined is the loving archtype for what a nazi is, and has been since the end of the drat war where we fought the nazis. The loving shrug-oh-well energy people are expressing over this is horrific. A +10 dem state just elected this psycho on the explicit promise that he's going to go after teachers, and nobody on this board seems to care except insofar as they get to laugh at a democrat they hate for being a loser. That overheated rhetoric is going to prove as useful for Dems next year as it's proving for T-Mac this year.
|
|
#
¿
Nov 3, 2021 01:39
|
|
|
VitalSigns posted:According to CNN's exit poll a whoa, that Hispanic split. eta: And Asian, jesus.
|
|
#
¿
Nov 3, 2021 02:03
|
|
literal Nazi
|
small butter posted:How mad were you when Trump lost? Like a scale of 1-10. It would be wiser to stop blaming lefties & calling them trumpers bc of dems losing bc of not doing what voters elected them to do.
|
|
#
¿
Nov 3, 2021 02:49
|
|
|
Lol at Leon's hyperfocus on the Buffalo mayoral race to exclusion of the NJ & VA governors' races.
|
|
#
¿
Nov 3, 2021 03:31
|
|
|
small butter posted:So you were praying for a Youngkin win just like I predicted? Omigod, can we stop with this reductive bullshit, please? They said nothing about wanting Youngkin to win, and you're only proving the point made about ignoring the reasons for losses. edit: If people are worried about the consequences of Republicans beating Democrats, then it would make sense to pay some loving attention as to why that's happening, a year after Democratic wins across the country (and because of many counties switching from D to R tonight).
|
|
#
¿
Nov 3, 2021 05:04
|
|
|
Old James posted:Fixing insulin prices is an overall good. But to the millions of Virginians without diabetes, it had no impact on their lives. This winds back to what strategist Simon Rosenberg was telling Dems a couple months ago: That universal programs are way more popular with voters than highly targeted programs, and it's in their political best interest to pay attention to that. Whether they're touting having passed free healthcare for only the poorest (and for only those who live in certain states); monthly checks for parents (families with little ones get more); or SALT deductions for the wealthiest Americans, Dems have a habit of expecting all voters to be happy with things benefitting fewer than all voters. And this might work in some environments or in other times, say if people were feeling economically secure, or if people united under the banner of a Larger Good (eg: post-9/11, or under Obama's soaring rhetoric), or if people hadn't seen the stuff that benefits themselves get chipped away by neoliberalism & conservatism over the years to the point they feel they're on their own. But in an environment & economy as starkly stratified as ours, it just sets off crabs-in-a-bucket instincts, and makes voters vulnerable to be politically exploited by those who gin up resentment. And yet Dems continue to focus on expanding Pell grants for those who run businesses for three years in disadvantaged communities and expect plaudits & votes out of it.
|
|
#
¿
Nov 3, 2021 16:03
|
|
|
I liked this point that Stoller made; it's getting at what I was describing in my prior post but does it very succinctly: https://twitter.com/matthewstoller/status/1455658669434093575
|
|
#
¿
Nov 3, 2021 17:04
|
|
|
selec posted:It’s harder for me to believe they’re dumb than they just oppose those measures. They didn’t want them to pass, and lo and behold they didn’t pass. If they’d wanted them to passed they’d have been any kind of proactive about it. Yeah. I got an email from the astroturf group opposed to health/pharma reform today crowing about what a success they've had with the Dems' reconciliation bill. They were opposed to a public option, lowering Medicare age, and meaningful pharma reform so why shouldn't they congratulate themselves on a job well done & money well spent? Dems are fighting harder for restoring the tax deduction for richie homeowners than they have fought for a $15/minimum wage, housing aid for the poor & unhoused, immigration reform, or anything else that doesn't call for corporate welfare/subsidies and benefitting the already rich by helping them become even more rich. They're not dumb; they're bought & sold.
|
|
#
¿
Nov 4, 2021 01:09
|
|
|
Peter Daou Zen posted:This is an extremely impressive list of the Democrats accomplishments , Fancy. One could call it "walking on the ceiling."
|
|
#
¿
Nov 4, 2021 02:31
|
|
|
Lib and let die posted:A definite step backwards from Obama. It's a real shame those aid workers got war crimed by a white guy instead of someone that looks more like the victims. Trump must pay for this! This reminded me of that weird Andrew Sullivan piece about the little brown boy in the mideast who would cry tears of joy if Obama were elected: "Consider this hypothetical. It’s November 2008. A young Pakistani Muslim is watching television and sees that this man—Barack Hussein Obama—is the new face of America. In one simple image, America’s soft power has been ratcheted up not a notch, but a logarithm. A brown-skinned man whose father was an African, who grew up in Indonesia and Hawaii, who attended a majority-Muslim school as a boy, is now the alleged enemy. If you wanted the crudest but most effective weapon against the demonization of America that fuels Islamist ideology, Obama’s face gets close. It proves them wrong about what America is in ways no words can." How are u posted:It's a big tent party. Anti abortion dems are few and far between these days, but they still exist. Thank the lord the party supported Dem William Casey Sr. or we wouldn't have the heinous state-level abortion restrictions we do today--not to mention the underlying rationale to further restrict abortion at the federal level, as is likely to happen over the next several years.
|
|
#
¿
Nov 4, 2021 16:32
|
|
|
Kavros posted:a tear of reverence for America falls down their cheek moments before they are flash-obliterated by US-supplied munitions It should've been a tipoff when all of the ickiest Bush apologists like Sullivan fell in love with Obama in 2007-08. In fact, one could say the same now about the current Dem Party media cheerleaders who were grown in rightwing lab vats, from Jennifer Rubin to Bill Kristol to Nicolle Wallace to Sally Yates. "A Party Only a Conservative Can Love" is one hell of motto for the Dems; let's see how that works out for them in the coming years.
|
|
#
¿
Nov 4, 2021 17:47
|
|
|
Leon Trotsky 2012 posted:This is such a bizarre example to use for something they can do a legitimate story about. A whole 20 seconds into the clip Keilar mentions the couple has kids, and they talk about how many they've adopted & fostered, as well as having birthed, around 1:00. How dare you throw off an assumption without having watched the piece, and it's not even paywalled. I believe that may be against one of the new rules, goon sire. Willa Rogers fucked around with this message at 20:24 on Nov 4, 2021 |
|
#
¿
Nov 4, 2021 20:15
|
|
|
Eric Cantonese posted:It always gets so mean when people start second guessing people's spending decisions. It's one of the worst parts about any piece exploring a family's budget limitations. Yeah, it's gross, and it's yet another style of rhetoric that used to be confined to rightwing pieholes & fingers.
|
|
#
¿
Nov 4, 2021 21:10
|
|
|
Lib and let die posted:If I can afford the Jag, I can afford the maintenance. That's exactly how I feel about SALT taxes!
|
|
#
¿
Nov 4, 2021 22:28
|
|
|
Leon Trotsky 2012 posted:. Great suggestion, and one with which I concur. SALT restoration will definitely stay in, and continue to benefit the wealthiest, and 4 weeks of paid leave (cut down from the original 12) will be further stripped or eradicated from the final bill. quote:That would put the estimated time for final passage and being signed into law around November 19th, assuming (and that is a giant assuming given the track record) no more major delays in the Senate. I would put the estimated time for passage at whichever day is the last in the working year before Congress's own 30th* annual week of paid time off, late at night, so that everyone will be shocked later to discover some b.s. added at the last minute that does something to piss off voters, whether it's a new catfood commission to cut earned benefits or restoring the financial penalty for not purchasing private health insurance. * Hyperbole, obviously; Congress only gets around half the year as paid time off, unless members are seriously ill, in which case they get "as much paid time off as they need." Just like every other working stiff in this country gets, right?
|
|
#
¿
Nov 5, 2021 15:05
|
|
|
Leon Trotsky 2012 posted:
As I pointed out the last time you went on this tangent, looking at single-family homes owned by hedge funds & corporations while ignoring their taking over the multi-family rental market is some shady sleight of hand. Especially because those burdened by student loans, as in the current context, are consigned to the rental market bc of debt-to-income ratios.
|
|
#
¿
Nov 5, 2021 17:02
|
|
|
|
| # ¿ May 10, 2024 05:38 |
|
|
Leon Trotsky 2012 posted:Since it has been almost 5 months (!?!?!) since they stripped the "hard infrastructure" from the original BBB to make the BIF, here's a quick reminder of what is in it and how it differs from the original BBB "hard infrastructure" spending. I hope you're getting either overtime or a 6-figure salary for all the work you do. 
|
|
#
¿
Nov 6, 2021 06:01
|
|