|
Youth Decay posted:Kinda curious how much (if any) red mirage there will be with all the early voting happening. I guess they have changed the way votes are counted such that early votes and absentee votes began being processed seven days before election day. So we are actually going to see a blue shift in the initial results, which will represent early/absentee votes, and then a red shift as the rural areas get their election day results in, and then a final blue shift as the returns come in from urban areas. e: Also like Oracle said we don't know for sure that partisan split of early votes vs. election day votes will break down as neatly as it did a year ago. I still think that the election day vote will favor Youngkin and the early votes McAuliffe, though.
|
#
¿
Nov 2, 2021 18:12
|
|
|
|
| # ¿ May 18, 2024 06:39 |
|
|
Shammypants posted:How often has exit polling let us down or failed to give us the correct insights? It’s failed both ways frankly on too many occasions. Polling is one thing and various adjustments give you valuable insights but exit polling is trash. Yeah but that said these exit polls look terrible. Pretty unconfident right now.
|
|
#
¿
Nov 3, 2021 00:13
|
|
|
RBA Starblade posted:I said it in USNews but I've just been assuming McAuliffe's hosed since getting back from Florida where nobody shut up about statues, CRT, or banning "those" books. The chuds are horny for this one I get that they're horny about it but the fact that there are D-leaning voters who see an election where Republicans are foaming at the mouth for racist-rear end reasons and go "meh, I don't really like voting, McAuliffe bores me" is loving infuriating.
|
|
#
¿
Nov 3, 2021 00:19
|
|
|
camoseven posted:I hope Youngkin wins Cool 
|
|
#
¿
Nov 3, 2021 00:23
|
|
|
Willa Rogers posted:caps from Kornecki: As Kornecki pointed out those Wise County numbers look messed up (turnout probably didn't fall from 16,500 to 450 - although it would be pretty good for Dems if it did!) e: everything is pointing to a very tight race so far (surprise, surprise)
|
|
#
¿
Nov 3, 2021 00:26
|
|
|
BIG FLUFFY DOG posted:Literally everything has looked bad for Democrats in 2022. Yeah, ever since November 7, 2020 at about... 11:30 AM, the Democrats have been fighting a serious uphill battle.
|
|
#
¿
Nov 3, 2021 00:31
|
|
|
Leon Trotsky 2012 posted:McAuliffe has a lead of 21-24% in early vote. For what it's worth if these numbers were perfectly accurate (gigantic "if", obviously) that would suggest a final vote total for McAuliffe of between 50.1% and 52%.
|
|
#
¿
Nov 3, 2021 00:35
|
|
|
The mail-in vote for Loudon brought McAuliffe from 52.9 to 55.5 in that county, continuing the theme of him doing 1-2 points worse than he needs to do.
|
|
#
¿
Nov 3, 2021 01:17
|
|
|
Pollsters are looking pretty good tonight. Good for them; they needed a W. Also means that McAuliffe pissed away an incredibly winnable race.
|
|
#
¿
Nov 3, 2021 01:18
|
|
|
Julian Castro on MSNBC making the impressively intuitive argument that "the centrist candidate losing reflects poorly on centrists, not progressives."
|
|
#
¿
Nov 3, 2021 01:22
|
|
|
I guess a silver lining is that Democrats have a perfect case study, should they choose to consult it, in the 100% wrong way to respond to Republican dog whistles about education.
|
|
#
¿
Nov 3, 2021 01:30
|
|
|
IMO if the DC Dems had gotten their poo poo together McAuliffe might've been able to pull it out. He was a bad candidate but having a Democrat in the White House just makes some cross section of the population apoplectic; this is the third time it's happened in my life. Doing an rear end job legislating just accentuates that. This poo poo was always going to be an uphill battle, as are the midterms next year; this party does probably not have their poo poo together to fight such a battle. Don't know what to do about it.
|
|
#
¿
Nov 3, 2021 01:37
|
|
|
Zeron posted:The source I'm looking at has it as only like, 24% of early votes being in (and 69% election day) so maybe a miracle will happen. Wasserman called it, so it would be something approaching a miracle.
|
|
#
¿
Nov 3, 2021 01:40
|
|
|
TulliusCicero posted:That comment about parents shouldn't have say over education loving killed him Kind of nuts that we get all these exit polls with detailed crosstabs but nobody bothers to poll "parents" vs. "non-parents" when it's supposed to have been such a major factor in the race. ("Education" was ranked as the second biggest issue after "Economy" in exit polls - I figure that includes CRT but also trans issues and mask mandates. [God drat is this country stupid.])
|
|
#
¿
Nov 3, 2021 01:42
|
|
|
Judakel posted:Wait a minute! Is that Ciattarelli's music!?!? Nah, Murphy is still going to win easily. (Essentially tied at 88% reported with mostly mail-in votes to go.) Embarrassing blunder, though.
|
|
#
¿
Nov 3, 2021 17:45
|
|
|
camoseven posted:I would argue that fascists are trying to make things better, it's just that they have a very different definition of "better" (and probably also "things") Do you think neoliberals aren't? Like fascists, they just have stupid ideas about how to make things better, and a too-narrow conception of who deserves to have things better. Hating liberals more than fascists doesn't make you a better leftist, sorry.
|
|
#
¿
Nov 3, 2021 22:25
|
|
|
camoseven posted:You have put a lot of words in my mouth and then followed it up with an insult that only makes sense if I said what you think I said Fair enough; sorry, withdrawn.
|
|
#
¿
Nov 3, 2021 22:41
|
|
|
So Murphy is up 2.2% (50.7% - 48.5%) with 90% of votes counted. Remaining votes are overwhelmingly vote by mail and early votes (and presumably also from more urban, heavily Dem areas.) It's annoying that "MURPHY WINS IN SQUEAKER!" has cemented itself as the narrative now because he's likely to win by at least 6 points. The Dem Senate President losing is pretty embarrassing, but it also seems like one of those cases where the incumbent was arrogant and basically didn't bother campaigning (see Crowley, Joe; Nelson, Bill; Brown, Byron [in his primary]). NJ Senate is still heavily Dem and might improve for having a new leader.
|
|
#
¿
Nov 5, 2021 19:29
|
|
|
VitalSigns posted:The general population is ok with some hearts being cut out on the temple of the sun to ensure a good harvest, I understand you are not and that's OK but there will be plenty of death coming down the line if the crops fail Yeah, it's hosed up but I see a lot more people mad about mild inconvenience than 750,000 deaths. (That's right, we broke 750 guys!   )
|
|
#
¿
Nov 5, 2021 20:44
|
|
|
|
| # ¿ May 18, 2024 06:39 |
|
|
VitalSigns posted:God March 2020 was such a magical time. The 0.1% hadn't got their propaganda points organized and uniformly pushed out yet, so there were still slip-ups where some inbred hedge fund lord would get on the morning show and just say what they were all really thinking "what's the big deal I was playing virtual golf with the board of directors and we all agreed a servant's life is worth at most a thousandth of a basis point off our stock price! Just keep replacement peasants cheap and plentiful and we'll all still get a stock buyback with our bailout money! Pip pip!" Yeah, both the period after the CARES act and the period after 1/6 show how quickly right wing media (and enablers in mainstream media) can undo a positive consensus among Americans and turn it into just another culture war shitshow.
|
|
#
¿
Nov 5, 2021 21:59
|
|
But then they all got behind Plandemic and it got sad.