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Pablo Bluth
Sep 7, 2007

I've made a huge mistake.

Mokotow posted:

4 AM is what I saw on other accounts on Twitter too.

Meanwhile, there’s a Turkish Airbus 400M landing in Odessa.
It looks like it flew over Odessa rather than landing and is now heading north to somewhere. A second A400m is currently following the same route over the black sea.

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Pablo Bluth
Sep 7, 2007

I've made a huge mistake.
There's a US drone flying around at the moment.
https://www.flightradar24.com/FORTE12/2aea8ac9

Pablo Bluth
Sep 7, 2007

I've made a huge mistake.
The route it took is interesting. I wonder why it did a loop over the east before it headed to the border of the disputed region.

Pablo Bluth
Sep 7, 2007

I've made a huge mistake.
Ukraine might have downed a transport plane

https://www.reddit.com/r/ukraine/comments/t0cc7u/russian_an26_downed/

Pablo Bluth
Sep 7, 2007

I've made a huge mistake.

Shifty Pony posted:

Can't imagine there wasn't a plan to drop in reinforcements that got disrupted. Whoever nailed that transport aircraft with a MANPADS might just have made a huge difference in how this works out.
It's now being reported that it crashed inside Russia. Might explain the lack of info earlier other than a couple of photos of the tail and nothing else, or it could be propaganda to deny Ukraine the benefit.

https://twitter.com/arabnews/status/1496929516211605508

Not sure which is worse for Russia; losing it to a MANPADS or their planes just failing under pressure.

Pablo Bluth
Sep 7, 2007

I've made a huge mistake.

cinci zoo sniper posted:

According to Kyiv Independent, the fight continues. They’re reliable enough for me to want for additional confirmation here. Accompanying rumour mill suggests tanks and artillery involved, with heavy shelling of the airport, which makes sense to me since chances are it’s held by quite literally the best of the best in Russian infantry.
Presumable at this point just shelling the runway to the point that fixed wing landings become impossible would be a gain for Ukraine?

Pablo Bluth
Sep 7, 2007

I've made a huge mistake.

TulliusCicero posted:

Genuinely surprised:

I thought for sure that was Germany

Do they have the biggest nuclear stockpile of the European powes as well?
France love to spend French Tax money on French things, might as well spend a chunk of that on your military. That includes making sure you have your own manufacturers rather than joining european joint programmes.

Pablo Bluth
Sep 7, 2007

I've made a huge mistake.
https://twitter.com/JackDetsch/status/1496958617945317377

Assuming Putin isn't about to do a Hitler and open up a different front on a different country, presumably this is about further stretching the Ukraine resources.

Pablo Bluth
Sep 7, 2007

I've made a huge mistake.
https://www.saveecobot.com/en/radiation-maps#13/51.3847/30.0673/gamma/comp+cams+fire

Radiation spiking at Chernobyl.

Pablo Bluth
Sep 7, 2007

I've made a huge mistake.

Mooseontheloose posted:

how does one read that map? Like, what's bad and what's ye gods we're doomed levels?
No idea, other than if you click a number is shows graphs of recent data and a whole bunch of them have shot up today. I'm assuming ~3000 to ~65000 is not good.

Pablo Bluth
Sep 7, 2007

I've made a huge mistake.

Fart Amplifier posted:

Do you have any useful insight instead of scaremongering? What do these numbers mean?
No, but others have provided useful comments in response.

Pablo Bluth
Sep 7, 2007

I've made a huge mistake.
Sounds like a jet

https://twitter.com/sentdefender/status/1497042959186870277

Pablo Bluth
Sep 7, 2007

I've made a huge mistake.

smoobles posted:

Aren't US troops going to the Balkans right now? They're all NATO, right?
The more troublesome Bosnia and Herzegovina, Serbia, Kosovo aren't but they have buffer states to Russia. Unless Russia wanted another enclave.

Pablo Bluth
Sep 7, 2007

I've made a huge mistake.
Re: Maldova. If you believe Wikipedia, unification with Romania is a thing and getting more popular. One of the holdbacks is the two pro Russian breakaway regions. Personally I'd now be trying to fast track reunification and say gently caress it, jettisoning the two regions.

But not being desperate to keep land full of people who don't like you is why I'm not a head of state...

Pablo Bluth
Sep 7, 2007

I've made a huge mistake.
Must be going well enough that Zelenskyy can get out of whatever basement he's been working from. (Or fog of war old photos)

https://twitter.com/AsaadHannaa/status/1496963117288468483?t=BHKPK9RCtNq1t4r6K9iQUw&s=19

Pablo Bluth
Sep 7, 2007

I've made a huge mistake.

fuctifino posted:

I've seen this posted in a few places as footage of the II-76 that was supposedly shot down:

https://twitter.com/mitkofx/status/1497361983523414021
That's from yesterday and seems to have been a downed cruise missile.

Pablo Bluth
Sep 7, 2007

I've made a huge mistake.
For a while there were claims it was Ukraine shooting a plane, Ukraine shooting a cruise missile, and Russians shooting down a Ukraine plane. The cruise missile seemed to stick as the final claim, and no plane wreckage photos turned up which I think would be likely for an urban area.

Pablo Bluth fucked around with this message at 01:25 on Feb 26, 2022

Pablo Bluth
Sep 7, 2007

I've made a huge mistake.

They did well to keep that quiet as long as they did. Seems like a poor choice to be flying in an area of your own AA.

Pablo Bluth
Sep 7, 2007

I've made a huge mistake.
https://twitter.com/NBCNews/status/1497368313873133570

Pablo Bluth
Sep 7, 2007

I've made a huge mistake.
https://twitter.com/DefenceHQ/status/1497520235179556864

The 30km figure is down from 'more than 50km' 19 hours ago.

Pablo Bluth
Sep 7, 2007

I've made a huge mistake.

steinrokkan posted:

Reposting from GBS, Ramzan Kadyrov speaks out
Or the first war Deep Fake?

Pablo Bluth
Sep 7, 2007

I've made a huge mistake.
https://twitter.com/ELINTNews/status/1497650174935642116

Video being shared with the claim it's a Russian MI-24, but who knows if it's old video or one of Ukraine's.

Pablo Bluth
Sep 7, 2007

I've made a huge mistake.

StarBegotten posted:

Just saw on BBC news that Germany just announced increasing defense spending to 2% of GDP... good job Putin!
By my calculations, that's an extra $230Bn a year. For reference, that's how much Italy already spend and they're the 5th largest NATO spender. It'll make Germany the second largest NATO spender, slightly ahead of the UK (who are at 2.13%)

ref: https://worldpopulationreview.com/country-rankings/nato-spending-by-country

Pablo Bluth
Sep 7, 2007

I've made a huge mistake.
I knew Zelenskyy was an actor but I didn't realise directly before entering politics, he played the headline role in a satirical political drama, about a high-school history teacher in his thirties who is unexpectedly elected President of Ukraine. Julia Louis-Dreyfus is probably crossing 'get elected as President' off her todo list...

Pablo Bluth
Sep 7, 2007

I've made a huge mistake.
There are claims by Ukraine that Belarus are going to official declare war too. If true, I guess Putin needs more bodies and hardware on the ground.

Pablo Bluth
Sep 7, 2007

I've made a huge mistake.
The video starts a bit late but it looks like someone just overtook a lone Russian vehicle on the highway and lobbed some motlovs as it went by.

https://www.reddit.com/r/ukraine/comments/t2pxht/balls_of_steel_molotovs_on_the_highway/

Pablo Bluth
Sep 7, 2007

I've made a huge mistake.

fatherboxx posted:

Chechens have big family clans, the clan in power benefits immensely from federal backing, and its members form the bulk of Kadyrovs praetorians
Here's a long Guardian article looking at Kadyrov 's Chechnya curca 2015.
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2015/sep/23/putins-closest-ally-and-his-biggest-liability

Pablo Bluth
Sep 7, 2007

I've made a huge mistake.

cinci zoo sniper posted:

So, the background here is that there’s been a long running saga of finding импортозамещения, or replacements for imports. As you may expect, quite frequently this is a simple grift where functional poo poo gets replace by a barely adequate domestic “equivalent”, that is not at all guaranteed to be cheaper.

This is going to be quite the spectacle.
Which I assume is going to be more noticeable than to the average USSR citizen who only ever had the soviet experience. China will still be a route for a lot of stuff but there's not going to be any iPhones or flying off to Milan for handbag shopping.

Pablo Bluth
Sep 7, 2007

I've made a huge mistake.

cinci zoo sniper posted:

What the hell, this is the 4th already.
So it this accidentally-on-purpose, human incompetence (trigger happy sailors) or technical incompetence (missile systems going rogue and hitting the wrong target)?

Pablo Bluth
Sep 7, 2007

I've made a huge mistake.
Reports of a sunken Estonian-owned cargo ship . If to be believed, it was under Russian Navy control and being used as a shield for landing.

Pablo Bluth
Sep 7, 2007

I've made a huge mistake.
I assume Emirates, Etihad and other such airlines will pick up a lot of the market.

Pablo Bluth
Sep 7, 2007

I've made a huge mistake.

Crespolini posted:

how fast is an iskander, out of interest?
There is a new hypersonic version.

Pablo Bluth
Sep 7, 2007

I've made a huge mistake.

SaTaMaS posted:

Is there any sign that the UK will try to get back into the EU now that Europe is under increased threat and they look like patsies who fell for Putin's plan to restore russian dominance?
Zero. Our terrible press and terrible politicians elected by a terrible first-past-the-post would never do that u-turn.

Pablo Bluth
Sep 7, 2007

I've made a huge mistake.
Don't underestimate just how useless and out of their depth everyone in our current government is. Anyone capable of critical thinking has been replaced with a flag waving brexit ideologue.

Pablo Bluth
Sep 7, 2007

I've made a huge mistake.

Grouchio posted:

If the Swiss truly want to throw off neutrality regarding Russia they should jail Nestle execs for crimes against humanity.
They're only interested in Crimes Against Wealth.

Pablo Bluth
Sep 7, 2007

I've made a huge mistake.
Based on Russian competance so far, it was probably two Russian helicopters where the pilots were lost and didn't realise they were still the wrong side of the border.

Pablo Bluth
Sep 7, 2007

I've made a huge mistake.
Maybe that downed helicopter was starstreaked...

https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/uk-missile-shoots-down-first-russian-helicopter-in-ukraine-war-tztnmxqr2

Pablo Bluth
Sep 7, 2007

I've made a huge mistake.
If nothing else, China won't say anything that denies their given right to invade Taiwan at some point in the future.

Pablo Bluth
Sep 7, 2007

I've made a huge mistake.
Looks like Ukraine downed another plane. @UAWeapons is saying either SU-27 or SU-35 and there are claims the pilot was captured.

:nws: Distant video of it falling out the sky. Video starts after whatever caused it Wreckage photos are floating around too :nws:

The video quality isn't great making it harder to judge, but the black smoke seems to start at a reasonable altitude. If so, that has to be a boost for Ukraine. Anti-aircraft seems to be a weakness so far.

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Pablo Bluth
Sep 7, 2007

I've made a huge mistake.

PC LOAD LETTER posted:

From what I've read Starstreak requires you to hold aim on the target until its hit (which can take more than a few seconds). Doing that with a fighter jet or attack helicopter while it is on a run or moving real fast has to be quite a bit more difficult than hitting some air liner for a second or 2 which usually are essentially going in a straight line.

There was some commentary that this required a decent bit of training to perform in a reasonably accurate fashion but the details are all hazy and vague. The UK MoD sounded very confident in it but with no released attack success numbers or previous examples of its use it was hard to say how well it'd really work.
It also comes in a vehicle mounted, auto-tracking variant. I don't know what's been sent to Ukraine.

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