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Nenonen
Oct 22, 2009

Mulla on aina kolkyt donaa taskussa

"We are told that February 16th is the day" is a little more moderate than the tweet claims.

e: what OddObserver said

It's a good idea to be wary of any reports right now that you don't know the source of or don't understand the source language. Sometimes excerpts are mistranslated, sometimes they're exaggerated to get clicks, and others they're intentionally misrepresented.

Nenonen fucked around with this message at 20:33 on Feb 14, 2022

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Nenonen
Oct 22, 2009

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Alchenar posted:

'A good quick bloodless war will make everything better' is very channeling the spirit of Kaiser Wilhelm.

Or maybe Russian Empire's Interior Minister, von Plehve :hist101: according to one critic of his, at least, he said that "What this country needs is a short, victorious war to stem the tide of revolution" in support of going full steam against the Japanese in 1904. It could have been just made up afterwards to discredit him, though, as the war was long, lost and gave way to revolution.

Nenonen
Oct 22, 2009

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Red and Black posted:

Maybe, or maybe Germany and France change their minds and let Ukraine in. Russia made its judgement based on the potential evolution of events following the 2014 coup. In any case, a western friendly government being installed on their border wasn't good news and in their mind justified action

That's just not going to happen as long as there is an ongoing territorial dispute, sorry!

Nenonen
Oct 22, 2009

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Red and Black posted:

NATO can change their minds about that too

Now you're just being silly. First of all this would require all Nato countries to agree to it, don't you find that a little unlikely? No, obviously you don't. We are done, thanks bye.

Nenonen
Oct 22, 2009

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TipTow posted:

NATO always has been and still is an anti-Russian alliance. If it wasn't, why did those countries join in the aughts? What were they afraid of, Sweden?

Nato is a mutual defense union. If Russia invades one of its members, only then it will become an anti-Russian alliance. Otherwise Russia's actions are just what drives countries to seek safety within it.

Nenonen
Oct 22, 2009

Mulla on aina kolkyt donaa taskussa

TipTow posted:

I also know why the rest of NATO wanted them in, and it wasn't "democracy" or whatever. It's hegemony and a land border on Russia. That is not justified.

Well tell then what you know. What is this nefarious plan that Nato had desiring a land border with Russia? Give evidence.

Nenonen
Oct 22, 2009

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Paladinus posted:

America's GDP is 14 times that of Russia.

America consists of 50 states represented by 100 senators, all of whose prime responsibility is to bring defense contracts to their home state. And thus F-22, F-35, Zumwalt...

Nenonen
Oct 22, 2009

Mulla on aina kolkyt donaa taskussa
Welp, looks like Putin won.

https://eurovisionworld.com/esc/ukraine-alina-pash-withdraws-from-eurovision-song-contest-2022

quote:

Ukraine: Alina Pash withdraws from Eurovision Song Contest 2022

Alina Pash won the Ukrainian selection Vidbir 2022 just five days ago. She should have represented Ukraine at Eurovision Song Contest 2022 with the song "Tini Zabutykh Predkiv", but not anymore.

Alina has just issued a statement on her Instagram, where she announces her withdrawal from Eurovision Song Contest 2022:

quote:

I am a citizen of Ukraine, I follow the laws of Ukraine, I try to bring the traditions and values of Ukraine to the world. What this story turned out to be is not at all what I put into my song.

I am an artist, not a politician. I do not have an army of PR people, managers and lawyers to resist all these attacks and pressure, hacking my social media accounts and threats. And neither do I have them to resist the completely unacceptable wording that people use without the situation and forgetting the dignity of all Ukrainian citizens.

I don’t want this virtual war and hate. The main war now is the foreign one which came to my country in 2014.

I don’t want to be part of this dirty story anymore. With a heavy heart, I withdraw my candidacy as a representative of Ukraine in the Eurovision Song Contest. I am incredibly sorry.

We will contact UA:PBC and sign all of the necessary documents.

On a side note, I want to thank everyone who supports me and helps me, who listens to my song and the important message, and not gossip about me. Thank you!

The story continues with you and it is up to us to decide what it will be ❤️

Let's unite! Now it is more important than ever! 💛🇺🇦💙

The statement comes after the Ukrainian broadcaster UA:PBC refused to sign the agreement for her to represent Ukraine at Eurovision Song Contest 2022, while they are investigating a trip she made to Crimea in 2015, an area Russia seized control of in 2014.

In Ukraine, there are strict rules that must be followed if people wants to visit the Crimean peninsula. Traveling to Crimea is only allowed with a permission and via Ukrainian checkpoints. It is illegal to travel to Crimea via Russia.

The documents required for her to travel to Crimea were published in Ukrainian media, after which the Ukrainian State Border Guard Service stated that they had not issued the documents, raising questions about the legitimacy of the documents.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=rz6aQLKyBHc

This was his 9-dimensional chess play all along. Not to exclude Ukraine from Nato or from European Union. But from European Song Contest!

Nenonen
Oct 22, 2009

Mulla on aina kolkyt donaa taskussa

ronya posted:

Big if true?

https://twitter.com/maryilyushina/status/1493875669809442816

Exercises are scheduled to end in four days right?

So they're going to cross the Ukrainian border by then? Big indeed!

Nenonen
Oct 22, 2009

Mulla on aina kolkyt donaa taskussa

Charliegrs posted:

This speaks more to the west/east divide in the EU. Eastern EU countries tend to be more homophobic, mysognystic, and authoritarian. So naturally they align more with Russia and American conservatives.

Crosby B. Alfred posted:

Europe or the EU is wayyyyyyyyyyyyyyyyyy more friendly towards minority and LGBTQs than Russia. Granted, not perfect.

It's quite telling that Ukraine gets better scores in surveys for LGBT-friendly policies and legislation than Poland. But they are still miles better than Russia, where any kind of activism for equal rights can and will be taken as propaganda to minors and you end in court. In Ukraine Pride marches are possible, thanks to brave people who know their rights and are not taken back by threats.

Nenonen
Oct 22, 2009

Mulla on aina kolkyt donaa taskussa

orange sky posted:

Maybe already posted? Anyway,

https://twitter.com/Conflicts/status/1494254778968379393?t=hpUr8gwc1QRgNENkT5pV-g&s=19

PS probably bullshit. Not even sure that's the embassy lol

White smoke indicates the conclave has chosen the new leader of Ukraine!

Nenonen
Oct 22, 2009

Mulla on aina kolkyt donaa taskussa

HUGE PUBES A PLUS posted:

No Russians are fighting in Ukraine though. All lies from the west.

But yeah, there has been a consistent pattern of whenever Ukraine has successfully routed separatists out, the Russians have come in pretending to be more Ukrainian separatists and push Ukraine back.

Or if Ukrainians use their air forces then Russians borrow the rebels a BUK unit.

Nenonen
Oct 22, 2009

Mulla on aina kolkyt donaa taskussa

Alchenar posted:

e: so uh, was nobody manning the border checkpoint that was completely destroyed and yet somehow produced no injuries?

Not all border crossings between Russia and Ukraine are in use so it could indeed have been unmanned. Which of course is convenient.

e: Oh, doesn't look like a border crossing like I interpreted it, just a border guards' watch cabin in the woods? It might well have been empty, border surveillance tends to be increasingly electronic anyway.

Nenonen fucked around with this message at 11:46 on Feb 21, 2022

Nenonen
Oct 22, 2009

Mulla on aina kolkyt donaa taskussa
If only Russia had joined Nato in the 1990s they wouldn't have to be facing this Ukrainian onslaught all by themselves :ohdear:

Nenonen
Oct 22, 2009

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GABA ghoul posted:

Lmao, proclick if I ever saw one. I can't stop laughing at this, it's even below highschool play level

Donetskii Amateur Dramatic Society DADS presents a special version of "Come and See". Premiers soon, reserve your tickets before they sell out!

I'm not sure that this isn't a trollolol, it's just so bad. Is there proof that the actual DPR accounts have posted it? :psyduck:

Nenonen
Oct 22, 2009

Mulla on aina kolkyt donaa taskussa
Stalin had some nasty habits, like he would hold parties where he would make his subordinates drink lots of vodka while he only drank tea, then he would humiliate them in front of everyone. Also wake people up in the middle of the night by calling them and ordering to come to his office for an unplanned meeting (a phone ringing in the night could always also be a warning that the NKVD is coming to get you...).

But even he wasn't sadistic enough to interrogate his ministers in live television.

Nenonen
Oct 22, 2009

Mulla on aina kolkyt donaa taskussa

Conspiratiorist posted:

Loving all the watch watching on that council meeting.

"Looks like I picked the wrong week to quit on psilocybins"

Nenonen
Oct 22, 2009

Mulla on aina kolkyt donaa taskussa

A GIANT PARSNIP posted:

So why are these guys scared to back Putin on this? Bucking your country’s leader on live TV seems like a good way to get punished or fired in most counties - what has them nervous enough to risk that?

Because Putin is a dick and is expecting them to walk a very fine line where they speak for recognizing the DNR and LNR but god forbid don't say outright that you want to annex them. Doing this in front of live cameras is a bit too much for them.

Nenonen
Oct 22, 2009

Mulla on aina kolkyt donaa taskussa

Rad Russian posted:

I mean that's the loophole isn't it? They won't invade "Ukraine" they'll move troops up to the new border of the separatist regions. I'm sure Europe won't see it this way though. I don't think the plan was ever to go into Kiev or the rest of Ukraine, otherwise invasion would have happened weeks ago. Putin wants either assurance of no NATO in Ukraine or a buffer region there.

It's just one further step of escalation among all the hundreds of steps seen before. It's even a pointless one to make at this specific moment, Putin could have given Donetsk and Luhansk recognition even before this massing of troops started. With the troops positioned on the border of course it is easier to persuade Ukraine not to even put up symbolic resistance to this recognition, because that would lead to further escalation.

Which might happen regardless! I don't think that Putin has at any point defined to himself where this racket ends. He will keep pressing as long as he thinks he can get something out of it or at least continuing it doesn't cost him too much. Maybe he feels that this is enough and starts pulling troops home in a week. Or maybe he looks for something more to squeeze out of this. Or maybe EU and USA place sanctions that Putin feels need to be met with more than just counter-sanctions.

Nenonen
Oct 22, 2009

Mulla on aina kolkyt donaa taskussa

CommieGIR posted:

Yes, he's been saying that since Bush. Ukraine is a territory to Putin, not a country. His government and he has been very clear on that.

Unlike the noble nation state of :belarus:

Sir Bobert Fishbone posted:

Probably not too much of a ClancyChat stretch to say that Ukraine, Belarus, Moldova all in pretty real danger of not existing relatively soon.

Realistically I wouldn't go that far, e.g. Belarus is already firmly in Putin's pocket with military and trade unions. Moldova is not relevant to Russia except as to prevent them from joining Nato. Ukraine, well, if Russia forcibly annexes all the parts with a Russian majority then he's already pretty much done with his goals.

Nenonen fucked around with this message at 20:09 on Feb 21, 2022

Nenonen
Oct 22, 2009

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BIG FLUFFY DOG posted:

When this crisis was in its infancy and we still thought of Putin as a cold blooded mastermind instead of this I remember looking up Russian leaders after seeing someone say they expected him to reign for 20 more years and they do not live long. The longest lived one was I think kruschev at 77 which is short for a world leader who usually have access to the worlds best healthcare. In imperial days the tsars would mainly die in their 40s and 50s.

So no I’ve never heard it but it wouldn’t surprise me for him to have a progressive disease since he’s 69 and Russian leaders seem to have some strange curse

I would be wary of going too far with internet diagnostics, still. People are quick to make assumptions about old leaders like Trump or Biden, and it's not particularly surprising either. They are old and even with the best genes and habits you will slow up. But aging process is individual and even young people can get tumours for that matter. There's just not much point in it and at worst you get false hopes of all those bastards soon kicking the bucket. Looking at you, Kissinger...

I'm also quite sure that soon they will figure out how to make billionaires stop aging at all, even if it means they will have to inject baby blood into their veins. I wouldn't be surprised if world leaders already have some prototypes...

Nenonen
Oct 22, 2009

Mulla on aina kolkyt donaa taskussa

cinci zoo sniper posted:

Haramstufe Rot posted:

5000 helmets is a significant part of the German military material in working order. At least 25%.
Didn’t Germany have some trouble properly equipping the 900 people German reinforcements sent to Lithuania?

Well duh, all their helmets were given away

Delthalaz posted:

Missiles in Cuba would also be pointless because they have nuclear submarines and having nearby missiles doesn’t accomplish anything that submarines don’t

No, but even after the missile crisis in 1962 the Soviets maintained a naval station in Cuba. Surely much of it was propping Castro and just dickwaving at the Yanks, but having a safe port in western Atlantic also saves you from making the long trip back to Murmansk if you need some urgent repairs or, say, medevac on patrol. It was also a good place for signal intelligence back then. And it just allowed a stronger presence in the region.

Also I'm sure the troops stationed there really missed the frozen shores of the Barents and Baltic.

Nenonen
Oct 22, 2009

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Paladinus posted:

The meme is bad because it accepts Putin's stupid framework of policy through surface historical analysis.

Or... it underlines its banality.

Nenonen
Oct 22, 2009

Mulla on aina kolkyt donaa taskussa
From now on, I'm going to start responding to every 'beautiful Ukrainian women are seeking you' e-mail that I receive. It's the least I can do for Ukraine!

Nenonen
Oct 22, 2009

Mulla on aina kolkyt donaa taskussa
This is just Putin seeking the west's respect.

Nenonen
Oct 22, 2009

Mulla on aina kolkyt donaa taskussa

OddObserver posted:

It's about as appropriate as Elsac-Loethringen.

There's nothing inappropriate about that. Places with a long history are often known by many names.

Nenonen
Oct 22, 2009

Mulla on aina kolkyt donaa taskussa

I wouldn't step on a rug in Putin's palace either unless he walked on it first, tbh. Chances that there is a shark tank under it are 50/50

Nenonen
Oct 22, 2009

Mulla on aina kolkyt donaa taskussa

TipTow posted:

I can't see why they'd be happy about it, other than as a probe for a potential Western response to an attempt to reclaim Taiwan. It seems probable that this will cause economic and possibly even some political instability in Russia in the short- to medium term, and they already have one shaky regime with a bad relationship with the West and nukes on their border.

Ukraine is also world's fifth largest wheat producer and over a third of their wheat exports go to China.

Nenonen
Oct 22, 2009

Mulla on aina kolkyt donaa taskussa

Despera posted:

It's one little historical curiosity to wonder if the Warsaw Pact would actually fight if WWIII started. Would the Red Army keep enough control over the populace to force them to fight NATO?

This reminds me that when Warsaw Pact were planning for the invasion of Czechoslovakia in 1968, the pro-Kremlin Czechoslovak communists had to ask for the exclusion of East German forces from the invasion force because many still had livid memories of German soldiers occupying their country. Brezhnev agreed to this as the NVA tanks were already warming their engines.

Nenonen
Oct 22, 2009

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Ola posted:

One wonders which computer game it would most resemble, Microprose's F-19 Stealth Fighter or Fallout.

Maybe https://www.freegameempire.com/games/Twilight-2000

Currently we are headed towards S.T.A.L.K.E.R. 2: Heart of Chernobyl, though.

Nenonen
Oct 22, 2009

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GABA ghoul posted:

https://twitter.com/antontroian/status/1496426736925483012?t=oKzrN6abuN1fp-ZLs-b0Jg&s=19

What is even Ukraine? There is no way to know for sure. Could be anything. Small, big, something in-between. We just don't know :shrug:

This is a signal for Poland to demand the territories gifted by Stalin back :poland:

Nenonen
Oct 22, 2009

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All of eastern Europe is just viking trade outposts and Fenno-Ugrian hunting lands.

Nenonen
Oct 22, 2009

Mulla on aina kolkyt donaa taskussa

It seems that USA was just a fever dream and doesn't exist!

Nenonen
Oct 22, 2009

Mulla on aina kolkyt donaa taskussa
I very much doubt that Putin would try to capture all of Kyiv, it's a big village to cover and unless Ukrainians just threw their hands in the air it would take a lot of time and effort to bring under control. Going full hog into Kyiv and probably killing tens of thousands of civilians in the process (in addition to hundreds of Russian soldiers) would also be difficult to sell to domestic audiences right after explaining that Ukrainians are just Russians with a funny accent. At this point he doesn't seem to care about foreign response to his actions, though.

That's not to deny that Russian army might launch an offensive from Belarus to destroy the Ukrainian formations defending the capital and then proceed to surround Kyiv from all directions. At that point Russia would have access to highways in all main directions - including M05 that goes directly to Odessa. Ukrainian army formations in the eastern parts of country would then be in risk of being cut off and surrounded, while their capital is completely cut off. It'd be one sort of gambit, but whether it could be pulled off is anyone's guess.

Nenonen
Oct 22, 2009

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steinrokkan posted:

On the Oval Office desk, right between the "Gas Prices" and "Economy " levers is the "Foreign Policy Wins" lever

On which side of the Diet Coke button exactly?

Nenonen
Oct 22, 2009

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Paladinus posted:

How could they make a typo on it?

It's a Khyber Pass copy.

Nenonen
Oct 22, 2009

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Fuligin posted:

*clumsily fumbling across chart coveres desk fir my telephone&* 'FORGET the raytheon! Were all in on rhein rhein rhein!

"Wait, where does Rheinmetall get energy?"
"..."
"GAZPROM ROSATOM BUY BUY BUY!!"

Nenonen
Oct 22, 2009

Mulla on aina kolkyt donaa taskussa

It turns out that the seat should have gone to the first republic in alphabetical order. Armenians start cheering too soon, as all of a sudden an oddly familiar, mustachioed and bespectacled gentleman named Aaaaaaazbekistan enters the room.

Nenonen
Oct 22, 2009

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Stubb Dogg posted:

Agricola Frigidus posted:

Speaking of Nato - how likely is it that Finland and Sweden are joining up now?
I can only speak of my circles but basically everyone under 50 in Finland supports NATO membership these days, this includes voters for Left Alliance and Greens. I don’t know anyone who admits to voting True Finns, so dunno about them.

In light of polls something like one third of Finns are for membership. But when framed with question "if the president and prime minister of Finland supported Nato membership, would you support it" then 43% agreed. Support for Nato membership is on the rise in Finland, but about a third are still unsure.

However I am doubtful that it will go into a referendum like so many politicians have sworn before. Once the popular opinion becomes clearly in favour the parliament will probably decide on whether to apply based on national security needs. Holding a referendum would just open the decision making up to Russian trolls and bullying attempts. If not this year then after next spring's elections.

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Nenonen
Oct 22, 2009

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mobby_6kl posted:

That polling was before the second invasion I assume? How would it look now? Tbh I'd be shocked if they didn't go through with this after Putin's aggression. Like why would you remain "neutral" when poo poo like this happens to Russia's neighbors.

Wellllll it's not that straightforward. Finland was also neutral in 1956, 1968, 1979, 2008, 2014... can you say that Finland is under more threat now than previously?

Also bear in mind that Finland has no territorial disputes with Russia, no breakaway provinces like Ossetia, and there is no significant Russian minority either. Unlike Georgia and Ukraine, there just isn't anything to fight over.

Russia has also previously warned that joining Nato would worsen relations between the two countries, and while Nato would protect Finland from being invaded it wouldn't do much against all other sorts of malicious behaviour, such as cyber attacks or bringing refugees to the border. Nato membership would also oblige Finland to join in the defense of other members in case there is war, which I find just as unlikely - but if that did happen then strict military neutrality would be better.

But on the other hand, Russia once again displays itself as an unpredictable brute of a neighbour, and these kinds of preparations have to be made during fair weather, as the WW2 showed that finding help once the war has started is difficult and can make unfortunate bed fellows. I'm in favour of membership personally, but I still don't think it's a no-brainer.

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