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Electric Wrigglies
Feb 6, 2015

I have a question, does this conflict spell the end of the EU economy (based upon cheap gas) and US dollar (due to Russia joining up with the other BRICS countries to firmly establish an alternative to the USD hegemony. While it may sound far fetched on the face of it, BRICs is Brasil (neutral), Russia (on field trip), India (neutral), China (neutral and actively keen to set up an alternative via amongst other things the silk road) and South Africa (neutral).

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Electric Wrigglies
Feb 6, 2015

Alchenar posted:

Don't think we covered this yesterday:

https://twitter.com/carljackmiller/status/1504896238826700800?t=007L_-ScjiQphCrNjUiWhQ&s=19

There's some interesting research coming out about where Russia's propaganda efforts are focused and the effect they are having.

I live in West Africa and have friends from all over Africa but also Indonesia, Thailand, Philippines, Myanmar, etc. It is remarkably consistent how this is seen as Putin defending Russia from NATO and the US. Food for Burkina Faso and Egypt is raised, French colonial behavior in West Africa and that Wagner was finally helping stop the French funding of the Sahal terrorists is an occasional Facebook post. Solidarity with BRICs and many posts about how Russia never colonised or had slaves from Africa (even on Linkedin).

The Chinese are seen as having the resources and positive intent (Silk Road) combined with Russia to better help Africa towards prosperity.

If you wonder if people don't worry about the deaths of Ukrainian people, I can tell you I have workmates that have lost family due to terror attacks probably about once every six months in the Sahel. Ethiopia has had what six (?) figure casualties in fighting over there in the last year or so. So the casualties in Ukraine is less relevant than the economic outcomes for these people. They know what death and poverty looks like, in a lot of cases, it is part of life, enshallah.

I will say the higher educated people from those same places are at least more neutral or even sympathetic to the West and especially Ukraine but it is definitely still seen as a NATO vs Russia with Ukraine being the unfortunate location rather than the primary reason.

Electric Wrigglies
Feb 6, 2015

piL posted:

Imagine how surprised the photographer on the dining room toilet must feel!

surprised and relieved all at the same time I think

Electric Wrigglies
Feb 6, 2015

Djarum posted:

You are singing to the choir my friend. There are some industries are the divesting of China after learning lessons from COVID but not enough. There are going to be a LOT of business that will have a bad time in the near future. There are some political talk about it too but there are enough yet to make any headway. Supply chains aren't going to get any better so at a certain point you are hopefully going to see people make hard choices.

Really we need to go back to Keynesian economics in general but that is moving far into another subject that we are already veering off.

So what you are saying is that Russia is going to be strengthened by getting rid of trade with the world?

Electric Wrigglies
Feb 6, 2015

mobby_6kl posted:

:laffo:


ArmA is pretty good but Operation Flashpoint is still one of my all-time favorites. Just sneaking though the forests for hours to evede russian patrols, then stealing a car and booknig it back to safety. Ahh, back when this was all fantasy.



Hind... FOUR O'CLOCK at..... five hundred

BMP.......is......FINISHED

SPETZNATS!

Electric Wrigglies
Feb 6, 2015

FishMcCool posted:

Oh, right. Makes a lot of sense all of a sudden. I was thinking of soldiers with a conscience, but no, it's just the gay-beating, protest-suppressing crowd scared of being sent against actual resistance.

ACACowardlyB

Electric Wrigglies
Feb 6, 2015

Flappy Bert posted:

No kidding, how is that even possible? If you take that at face value either the hit rate is miniscule, the missiles are getting captured left and right, or Russia won't have anything motorized by this time next week.

I seen a maxim about never underestimate how much a useful munition will be used in war. I am not sure about the Stingers but I always laughed when people talked about how many javelins there were for each Russian tank (ie, implying each tank was going to be killed each time over) as if the rockets will not be used in multiples on tanks, used on buildings, individual soldiers, letter boxes and for celebrating a Lionel Messi goal.

e) and I never thought about it before but if you can aim a Stinger at a person, they will get uses as sniper rockets. - ie, Ukraine will want 10's of thousands of these things, 100's of thousands if it drags on.

Electric Wrigglies fucked around with this message at 23:41 on Mar 24, 2022

Electric Wrigglies
Feb 6, 2015

Failed Imagineer posted:

It's precisely so those people don't have to actually do anything themselves, because no cause is pure enough to be worthy of their time and money, and would besmirch their impeccable leftist credentials. Only posting is praxis.

Eh, I live and work in places frequented by MSF, Red Cross, UN, etc and a lot of bespoke/tourist charity (eg, travel and building huts in Tanzania which was popular half a decade ago, young volunteers getting out to the Sahel to help literacy) is doing a lot more damage than good. Taking a big poo poo on "good intent but too far removed to know what really is helpful charity" is a good thing. More effective I think to help locally, donate regionally and to multinational NGOs and to support your respective governments foreign aid programs (the Australian one before it was gutted was genuinely doing good things in the likes of Bangladesh, Cambodia, etc which I seen first hand as an interested spectator - its not just giving money but ensuring it goes in the right direction and does not have unintended consequences).

Separate topic.
On the whole "why not declare Putin as undesirable and we should decide to change him out".
In a thread awhile ago was a post where someone asked the I think Danish ambassador to Ukraine and Russia his thoughts on the current conflict. One of the big ones was that the US deciding that Iraq would look good with a new leader and subsequently conducting the US (fig leaf pre-texts aside) unprovoked invasion of Iraq. It really put the fear to the Russian leadership because if the US has decided it should and could go around so openly changing leadership in countries to better support their own business interests and moral mores like it was the 50's in Central/South America all over again, then eventually the US is going to change out them. This drove Russian leadership to (more than their usual bent) arm strongly, fight for their corner, test out their allies and if they could not be trusted, to make a buffer of them.

The US going around deciding who runs what is a real thing a lot of the world is sensitive to and while Germany and the richest part of Europe is happy to be subservient living in shame for its colonial past, it does not mean a lot of the rest of the world wants to do that. China, India, Turkey, Indonesia, Vietnam, Brazil, Philippines, Malaysia, Africa make up the majority of the worlds population - has Erdogan decided that he is a good enough suckhole to the US and therefore doesn't get his rear end changed out when the timing is right? How about India? Nice democracy, be a shame if you kept prevaricating on Russia or voted in the wrong person. Stop being naughty Hungary. You watch yourself Brazil, I don't mind you being populist fash as long as you don't be too sympathetic to Chinese business....

Maybe all these countries that don't go around changing out the leaders of other countries as a habit would get together in mutual interest and resist the kink that the US has. Normally there is too much conflicting self interest for that to happen though. Hence China's belt and road and hence why it was a more then dumb gaffe by Biden.

Electric Wrigglies
Feb 6, 2015

Popete posted:

This war really puts into perspective how advanced and well oiled the U.S. war machine is that they can deploy a standing army in Iraq/Afghanistan within a month or two halfway across the world and sustain it. Russia is having huge problems even after months of build up invading a next door neighbor.

Just a reminder when comparing armies by size and equipment that's only one factor, force projection is far more complicated.

I think that undersells how much the US pre-deploys and how much it built up for the conflicts it had ahead of time.

Electric Wrigglies
Feb 6, 2015

Bar Ran Dun posted:

Your thinking in terms of a surge. That rush of all the initial supplies to an area.

US just has loaded multi purpose / RO RO ships waiting at sea all over the world ready to go for a good chunk of that. Russia sold all those off decades ago. Each of the service branches has PREPOs just waiting 0-30 days from where they need to be. Where they have heavy equipment, tanks, trucks, etc that stuff is tested maintained, and run onboard in a rotation perpetually.

We are probably the only country that can do it anymore. Everybody else would be stuck with the intermodal systems everybody uses for international trade for supply. We use that too, but have the ability not to if needed.

the first post I replied to implied that the US operations in Iraq were kicked off after a month or so of prep but in addition to what you talk about; for the 1991 Gulf War, there was six months of basically moving the cold war budget armed forces of US +allies (Berlin wall had come down a year or so before) to go to town with resources that would have already been assessed as being able to be drawn down. For the US invasion in 2003, it was intended/decided to happen from 2000 with serious planning and preparation from 2001 after half a decade of air power softening up before the actual ground invasion in 2003..

Also to support what you say, the soviet armed forces were defensive with minimal expeditionary capacity away from railroads and the US is really the only true expeditionary capable power with the pre-deployment but also the logistical sustainment to support significant deployed forces. The French and UK ran out of ammunition beating up Libya for instance.

Electric Wrigglies
Feb 6, 2015

And let's be real, France, Germany and Switzerland were dragged (maybe not kicking and screaming but pretty close) to throwing in with Ukraine. Without US/UK prodding and Polish champing at the bit, I think EU as a whole was not that far of letting Ukraine be folded up back within Russia. It benefits the US way more than France/Germany/Switzerland that this conflict happened.

Electric Wrigglies
Feb 6, 2015

Fritz the Horse posted:

It's not really remarkable for rural/remote areas to lack indoor plumbing, even in TYOOL 2022.

Many/most American soldiers from rural areas who fought in WW2 wouldn't have had electricity or indoor plumbing either.

Literally the workers at plants I work with in West Africa leave each morning from a no indoor plumbing, no electricity house and come to work to operate a brand new $250M plant complete with SCADA, automation, work orders delivered to them on tablets linked to the computerised maintenance management system, online cultural sensitivity and sexual harassment training, etc. The full works of working in an Aussie/Canadian/US plant except when they get off the bus after their shift, its on a dirt road outside a mud hut and the laundry is being done in the creek.

They all have smartphones and facebook though. Smart phones, solar panels to charge them and mobile data towers is an amazing leveler for tech. So likely they all know what happens in richer parts of the world too, thanks to the same smart phones.

Electric Wrigglies
Feb 6, 2015

Quixzlizx posted:

Why does the "anti-imperialist" left have such a hard-on for rationalizing Russia's sphere of influence, when "sphere of influence" is the most imperialist of imperialist conceits, created during the Age of Imperialism?

It's less liking Russia per se and more hating capitalist US sphere increasing and combined with a leftover thinking that the USSR was the closest they got to effective resistance against capitalist hegemony. The US is allowed to gently caress with Venezuela and Cuba all it likes without effective Russian influence, why can't their imagining of USSR can't be left to its devices too?

Electric Wrigglies
Feb 6, 2015

PederP posted:

Which is by choice because they like peace dividends very much. Europe has neglected military spending on purpose. These countries could've built massive militaries if they'd wanted to. But that is not where European ambitions are at the moment (with a few exceptions as mentioned by others). And that is really where Mearsheimer, China and many others fail to grasp Europe. We don't lack military power because we're unable to attain it. We have the economy, demographics and technology to do so. But Europe chose to focus on something else - and to a large extent to mooch on US military spending in the aftermath of the cold war. And until Russia invaded Ukraine, most of Europe considered it a waste of money to even have a military.

Russia has pressured Europe into building up military power again, and down the line Europe will have built up enough power to deter any aggression and defend itself. Will Europe resist the temptation to use said power for various kinds of assholery? I think it play out mostly for the better. But I'm really annoyed at so-called realist scholars who consider Europe a half-dead invalid without agency and economic power, and thus frame an entity with 1/6th the global GDP as nothing more than an extension of the US.

European great powers gently caress with the smaller powers within Europe (eg Greece, Spain) and are not willingly relinquishing their right to gently caress over the states within their spheres of influence every time they get uppity (eg, French West Africa, Southern Africa such as Zambia and Rwanda, Belgium still is a swinging dick in the Congo on the QT). The only place they don't seem to have a huge influence but I could be wrong is Ethiopia with its 100k+ people casualty conflict which is to say that the US and the old great power paradigm is not the blame for all the worlds ills.

And to your chat about US and Europe, this conflict absolutely puts Europe backwards relative to the US and UK. The EU will be on the hook to put up a half arsed marshal plan/integrating a poorer version of Hungary into the EU while having its cheap energy cut off and the Russian buying market transition to China. We already seen Russia pull its pet attack dogs out of Mali so will see if Europe can retain its spheres of influence in Africa now that Africa voted with China and Russia.

Electric Wrigglies
Feb 6, 2015

Was not the gas pumped through Ukraine like a monthly record in Feb? As in gas was being imported as fast as possible for the month leading up even thought it was entering the warming season.

Also, one tank being low might be a maintenance thing specific to that facility.

Nordstream 2 was meant to come online as well, wasn't it?

I bet every storage of gas of German companies was full to the brim (normally mostly empty) a week or so after the start of invasion - support for Ukraine and all that, down to the last Ukrainian if necessary but not one deutschmark because that's a bridge too far.

Electric Wrigglies
Feb 6, 2015

GABA ghoul posted:

A substantial amount of people in the Russian government probably genuinely believe that the revolution of dignity or Belarusian uprising were US/EU coup attempts and that the west is behaving aggressively. Ffs, it's a common believe even here in the west among crackpots.

To be fair, a big chunk of the worlds coup attempts (successful and unsuccessful) in the 20th century were orchestrated by the one of the great powers or other. And the ones that weren't driven directly by a great power, usually the instigators asked the permission of a great power first before committing.

Electric Wrigglies
Feb 6, 2015

Spike ER was more the MVP in Nagorno Karabakh anyway, right?

Electric Wrigglies
Feb 6, 2015

Der Kyhe posted:

Considering historical connotations it would be very bad PR for Sweden to again put themselves into a position where Finns are the ones expected to die defending Sweden and its interests while they do the absolute minimum to help or defend themselves. Obviously while selling weapon systems and vehicle platforms to all parties who are wealthy enough to pay for them.

international relations are not a popularity contest haha.

Electric Wrigglies
Feb 6, 2015

mlmp08 posted:

Okay. Since day zero I have thought Russia should not have invaded Ukraine, and it was an aggressive and unjust act, and that’s what I’ve said who knows how many times. I do take it as exceptionally crass to say the situation is “great” for everyone except Russia. It isn’t great. The war sucks, and voyeurs with zero skin in the game continue to act like this is a game where you rack up anti-Russia points the longer the fighting continues. Ukraine and Russia will ultimately decide how this war ends, but it’s not great to have drawn out conflict just because Americans and select Europeans can watch Russian military might die while Americans and other Europeans remain safe. The situation is awful. The fastest way for it to end would be for Russia to just stop. But since that won’t happen any time soon, in the meantime, no, it’s not a great situation.

and to go further, I disagree it benefits Europe as declared by Warbadger. It is Russia's fault its gone sideways but it was in Western European interests to have the trade and energy with Russia it had. It does not benefit France or Germany to have all that trade wrecked, the millions of refugees spread through the EU and a potentially multi-year war situated in the food basket of Europe. Europe's standing in its own spears of influence (West Africa is what I know about most) is getting shaken. The Sahel was not a nice place to be anyway but food and fuel pricing has dramatically increased and the governments are scrambling to keep the power on in the cities and to stave of riots (they are already happening).

It's not in China's interests as bordering an unstable nuclear power embroiled in a WWI Germany vs France style conflict to its north rather than the pre-war/2014 stable Russia. India is in a tough spot of maintaining neutrality that is important to its own interests.

I would go as far to say that the US is one of the few places the war is great for. No own soldier deaths, distraction from internal gun shootings and other divisive internal issues, writing modest checks (nothing of the scale of Iraq/Afghanistan) to its own MIC, European powers embarrassed/compromised and subverted to US direction, significantly increased MIC spending across the board which will doubtlessly benefit the US above all.

On Russia, I agree with the above poster, Russia predicted/gambled that it would go like Crimea did (ie, sharp actions, little green men, rigged elections and a gut load of cash combined with a lot of supervision after to quell unrest ala Crimea/Chechnya) but they got their sums wrong and intelligence insufficient, resistance was far stronger and their military found wanting operating at a scale it had not done since Soviet times. Local resistance and improperly prepared troops and systems means reprisal attacks by Russian troops and leadership that furthered resistance and unified Western world grass roots opposition. In short, Russia has visited a disaster upon the world through hubris and megalomania. The same bullshit that seen the US go into Iraq in 2003 with broadly similar results (The invading country got stuck where it didn't want to be after only three months, world economy depressed, refugees in the millions, deaths in the hundreds of thousands because making a short sharp action followed by cash and supervision work is harder than it looks).

Pro-war is not Pro-Ukraine. Being anti-war is not anti-Ukraine. There is a macabre fascination with war but it is most assuredly absolutely disastrous for most people it touches.

Electric Wrigglies
Feb 6, 2015

Saladman posted:

FWIW this kind of thing is happening in Europe too. Probably not to the extent as in Russia, but nevertheless:

https://www.swissinfo.ch/eng/-ukraine-war-hits-supplies-of-food-packaging-material-/47631906

"Switzerland is considering emergency stockpiling of plastic packaging as the Ukraine war brings a world shortage of packaging material, reports the NZZ am Sonntag [the primary Zurich newspaper]."

To be honest hopefully this radically accelerates a decreased use of plastic packaging for groceries, like how every single bio vegetable in Switzerland from major grocery stores comes plastic wrapped, while non-bio stuff comes typically without being encased in plastic.

For those eating bio food, the priority is not the environment.

eeee, did not mean to snipe, speaking of shortages, evidently 70% of explosives and similar amount of fertilizer for West Africa came out of Russia. So not only is their less grain but less capacity to grow locally on top of the higher fuel prices.

Electric Wrigglies fucked around with this message at 13:02 on May 30, 2022

Electric Wrigglies
Feb 6, 2015

aphid_licker posted:

No, it's massively mechanized, especially for durable bulk goods like wheat and sunflower seeds, and not particularly difficult. Idk if it's worth it since the whole Russian war was started on the idea that it'd be much easier than it turned out, based on noneconomic considerations, and continued out of sunk cost fallacy, but you will def be able to extract a lot of fealty in the coming decades with a couple million tons of spare wheat lying around.

And it is a multiplier effect on their own wheat on the Russian side of the border.

Also gas and oil (O&G) resources have evidently been fairly recently identified in Ukraine and the black sea which control of the southern coast (and Snake Island) gives access to and again the benefit if which compliments Russia's existing resources.

Makes me think, how much was Ukraine eroding Russian arms sales leading up to 2014, 2022?

Electric Wrigglies
Feb 6, 2015

WAR CRIME GIGOLO posted:

Driving at 200KM/He with no ABS and no seatbelts will turn them into men. Ready to fight for Russia's imperialist dreams

I think it is seatbelt pre-tensioners specifically. I only pick up on this because I don't have any features from that list until very recently but I have always had seatbelts.

Actually, do 76 series landcruisers have ABS? I guess they have a drivers side airbag but that would be about it. We are buy them new for work and they certainly don't have GPS or ESP hahaha.

Electric Wrigglies
Feb 6, 2015

WarpedLichen posted:

I think the original point is about Ukraine getting an airforce like the Vietnamese did and I'm also not sure how jungles would matter in that context.

SEAD against SAMs hiding in hilly, misty and monsoonal jungles vs SEAD against SAMs hiding in the middle of flat, clear blue sky wheat fields...

Electric Wrigglies
Feb 6, 2015

One interesting thing was the TB2s started operating in Donetsk last year from what I understand. I.e. Ukraine was about to do a "Azerbaijan in Nagorno-Karabakh" on the Russian sponsored regions unless something drastic was done.

My read of Russia on Ukraine is that it was like the scare of the red tide flowing down Indochina provoking an ideological response from western capitalist thought leaders as opposed to a dry economical rationalisation or thinking about what was good for the peoples directly involved. SE still has the scars from that result of that ideological reaction. That Russia turned nasty on Ukraine at the time of the trade agreement does not mean the aggravation was for dry economical reasons, it was a lot about representing and enabling the perceived cultural victory that the west was having over Russia in Ukraine.

Electric Wrigglies
Feb 6, 2015

Ukraine started striking military units in Donbas in Oct21 https://www.defenseworld.net/2021/10/27/ukrainian-military-deploys-turkish-made-bayraktar-drone-in-donbas.html#.YXlXmZ5ByUk was this only going to be a one off? Or was it the start of Ukraine knocking over separatist firepower without the consequent collateral damage that would have been incurred arty dueling. The separatists had no answer for these, Russia does but even they struggle.

I did not mean to imply they were going to blitz the regions with an armoured push. Azerbijan's victory was not from a massive ground invasion, it was the loiter ammunition and drone dismantling of Armenia's armed forces that did it. Yes they attached too but my apologies for not clarifying that I was not talking about that bit of it. Ukraine would have been in a much better position negotiating with the separatists if every time they fired a shot at Ukraine, the arty (and only the arty) would get destroyed by drones. Like a lot a lot better.



someone already answered the question better than you chief.

Zhanism posted:

This seems to be having the opposite effect. EUs economy isnt based on cheap gas. The EU economy isnt going to collapse to the stone age if Russia turns off the tap. Its facing painful adjustments but lets not forget that the EU as whole has higher population than USA and its GDP is i think 3rd in the world.

I also think this show that the US dollar will be supreme for a long time. There is not other real alternatives other than the Euro that is so widely used by the financial work. Russia has caused themselves to be cut off from both and the yuan is no real alternative. I struggle to see what kind of common denominator BRICs will come up with. China especially wont accept anything other than using Yuan.

Electric Wrigglies
Feb 6, 2015

steinrokkan posted:

Oh, one of those. If you wanted to argue in good faith, you'd look up the recorded cease fire violations compiled by international observers and note that virtually all of them were committed by Russia, instead of pulling off this manipulative bullshit.

what are you talking about? I am not talking violations (arty that gets hit while firing on Ukrainian soil is not going to prompt anything other than crocodile tears as far as violations go). I was talking practicalities. The drones were a game changer in the tit for tat that was ongoing. That is all I said.

E) actually, I can see how it was read that I was saying more and could be read as saying that Ukraine was about to go on the offensive, my bad. My point is that the tit for tat had taken a huge turn in Ukraine's favor with the deployment of drones to the separatist areas. So much so that the Russian position in those was untenable without drastic changes to the support provided.

Electric Wrigglies fucked around with this message at 14:35 on Jun 15, 2022

Electric Wrigglies
Feb 6, 2015

Owling Howl posted:

I'm talking about the start of the war in 2014. It was about the EU trade agreement.

President Putin, November 2013

Russian envoy to EU-Ukraine Summit, September 2013

From the horse's mouth: This is why we won't accept it and this is what we will do.

As I said before, just because the reasons given are dry economical ones, does not mean the motivation is not something else. Which is born out by the fact that Russia has seemingly did what it said was going to do (by those quotes from 2013, sponsor separatist states, reduce the economy of and seek dissolution of Ukraine as an independent state). If it was dry economics, the statement was just negotiation (as the economy is hurt by the long term impacts of carrying out the threats more than the benefits), if it was more than economics, it was a statement of intent and the economy was a part of the accepted (if miscalculated) price.

Was Germany big on Ukraine inclusion in the EU at the time, even at the expense of Russian aggravation? Is some of their reluctance now due to them feeling like being dragged into something they wanted no part of in the first place? If they were big proponents of it, then it is even more embarrassing for them to lack preparation and fortitude in support.

Electric Wrigglies
Feb 6, 2015

Ynglaur posted:

CNN is reporting a couple Americans fighting for Ukraine are missing in action. It will be interesting to see what/if the reaction from Americans at large is.

I guess there is the media beatup but Americans getting knocked over as private contractors is/was a pretty common occurrence. Not as common as kids getting shot in school but you know, priorities.

Electric Wrigglies
Feb 6, 2015

Korean K2? Bit expensive and not that many around but Turkey and Poland have production licenses? Bit expensive but not too heavy, three man crew, some protection against ATGMs.

GaussianCopula posted:

It's basically a decision between two countries: the US and Germany. If the US is not willing (or able) to supply Abrams tanks, then it leaves only Germany as the Leopard family is the only other MBT that can conceivably be supplied to Ukraine in any meaningful way - both the Challenger2 and LeClerc are out of production and canibalizing their own stocks for spare parts already.

Electric Wrigglies
Feb 6, 2015

Elite forces generally means forces that you park you psychopath killers in to keep them away from the professionals. SEALs, SWAT, Australian SAS, AZOV, spetsnats, etc. You call them elite to justify having such people in a government organisation and because it is really important to the generally very narcissistic individuals that are needed to undertake such grizzly tasks as these guys get used for a lot of the time.

Electric Wrigglies
Feb 6, 2015

steinrokkan posted:

First, a mercenary is ONLY a combatant who enlists to fight for a side in a conflict solely for the reasons of monetary gain, and is paid significantly more than combatants of the regular forces. Volunteers, foreigners fighting within national army etc. are very much NOT mercenaries.

Second, a mercenary must be given all the same protections as any other person accused of criminal activities, the only exception is he is not afforded the special considerations given to captive soldiers. So no, mercenaries can't be basically shot willy nilly under international law.

The US (and Australia) in Afghanistan took a different view to you. Foreign nationals suspected of attempting to harm US citizens that were captured in Afghanistan were not afforded the Geneva conventions (as opposed to national soldiers of the Taliban) and instead shipped off to Guantanamo bay and other places. Using the standards set by the US (Aus as well), the Russians have quite a bit of leeway with what to do with non-Ukrainian nationals suspected of trying to harm Russian citizens. Torture (waterboarding), solitary confinement, indefinite detention, etc all are options with precedence from a global power in the last 20 years.

There is a reason that Australia, the US, I think the UK but don't quote me are discouraging (and have generally discouraged) going off to go fighting for other countries / other causes. Not only to protect the individual though, but because then what to do with the trauma riddled individuals after the fighting is a challenge too even if they don't get caught.

Electric Wrigglies
Feb 6, 2015

WAR CRIME GIGOLO posted:

It's for an EEZ claim and also siege Odessa shipping lanes*

It's more intricate that than but I don't know a gigantic amount about intl water laws

This is it, a lot of international land owning is possession is nine tenths of the law. China has built islands in the South China Sea purely to extend EEZ and control. Whoever has one dude standing on the island when a truce is called, will likely own it until the next broader conflict. Doesn't matter how precarious the hold, it is EEZ and controls the coast of Ukraine in that area.

It's also a sign that Russia assumes it wont be able to take Odessa in this round of conflict.

Electric Wrigglies
Feb 6, 2015

Alchenar posted:

Neither Snake Island nor any of the Artificial islands in the SCS have a recognised EEZ.

Snek Island most assuredly would legally because it is permanently above high tide.

The Chinese have gotten the Philippines to withdrawal their opposition and routinely hose down or ram any fishing boats that get more than 15 miles SCS side of and away from Palawan. You say it is not recognized in theory but in practice, it is very much recognized. Only the Indonesians are really pushing back (I know, non SCS actors such as the US and Australia run around playing I'm not touching you games but for now that hasn't stopped the Chinese now considering it a done deal and moving to Fiji, Solomon Islands, etc).

Electric Wrigglies
Feb 6, 2015

Alchenar posted:

No this has been settled in a case between Ukraine and Romania, it only extends a 12 mile territorial zone: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Maritime_Delimitation_in_the_Black_Sea_case

I stand corrected. Ta.

Electric Wrigglies
Feb 6, 2015

Mr. Smile Face Hat posted:

This is so superficial, it's hard to even find where to begin. A few things:

1. A country is not a person, but even if we pretend it is, changing one's opinion and going back on a contract is not irrational in itself.
2. If countries would only make contracts with other countries that both sides can expect to be valid forever, there wouldn't be any international agreements.
3. It's the point of a democracy that a different government can modify or terminate international agreements.

I'm not a fan of the previous administration, to put it mildly, but if we apply the kind of mindset you imply, then any administration or government anywhere could enter into onerous international agreements that every future government would be bound to.

The solution for any country that considers making a deal with any other country is to make it mutually beneficial from the start and have contingencies.

1. It is absolutely routine to refer to countries in the singular while meaning the government of the day. Yes, you can re-negotiate a contract when something changes and that is routine.
2. International agreements are just another contract?
3. It is fairly common in democracy governments to not terminate contracts of a previous government without very good reason even if they personally did not and do not fully approve of the contract simply because of the goodwill and reputation burn that it incurs each time this happens. It is why in Australia the foreign minister and shadow foreign minister generally work together quite closely even as they swap jobs through election cycles. Both sides of Aussie parliament have the interests of Aus in mind (how to achieve that is where the differences lay) and know that a consistent foreign policy is absolutely beneficial to overall outcomes. Britain achieves the same thing by leaving a significant amount of influence on detailed policy within the civil service.

A big chunk of resistance to Russian peace is the argument that the Russians can't be trusted based on recent past history and here you are implying that Iran should just get over itself and do another deal that you agree is likely going to be arbitrarily binned in possibly less than four years?

Electric Wrigglies
Feb 6, 2015

Burns posted:

One of the reasons that blackhawk got shot down in Serbia was because the planes carrying ECM loadouts were grounded that night due to weather. Aside from that my memory is that Serbia's air defence was basically annihilated.

I think you mean nighthawk.

Am I the first to correct the honest mistake?

Electric Wrigglies
Feb 6, 2015

^^^^Well if Libya was anything to go by, after a few weeks when ammunition ran out, about the same ^^^^


Nenonen posted:

Try using your brain for once before you throw your childish accusations around. You probably think that North Korea's air force is also one of the best in the world because they have hundreds of aircraft on paper.

his comment was that Ukraine was in actual combat, France fighting (and losing) in the Sahel is not remotely close to conventional conflict.

North Korea similarly lacks recent near-peer fighting experience which is his exact point.

Electric Wrigglies fucked around with this message at 12:41 on Jun 26, 2022

Electric Wrigglies
Feb 6, 2015

Shes Not Impressed posted:

70% of Chernihiv a military target? All of Mauripol? Kharkiv?

Trying to hit an electrical station to knock out the electrichka in Volovets at nearly max range of their missile capability isn't exactly strategic for the current theater they are fighting in.

Was Chernhiv damaged only by cruise missiles? All of Mauripol? Kharkiv?

You were being disingenuous to the discussion about why a cruise missile might hit an apartment block, apparently across the road from a cruise missile factory.

Electric Wrigglies
Feb 6, 2015

Bug Squash posted:

Another point to bear in mind is that those reserves are never, ever, going to fill up again. Russia is burning through 60-80 years of military planning for these inches of land. Even if the war ends on bad terms, Russia has permanently depleted it's ability to defend the land it's taken, and entirely lost it's ability to seriously threaten nearby peers like Finland.

I don't think you have a sense of the scale that modern industrial production can achieve. In three years (2011 to 2013) China poured more concrete than the US did during the entire 20th century. I have no doubt that a brand new factory built in the last 10 years or so could output more daily than a 1960-1980's soviet plant could in a month.

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Electric Wrigglies
Feb 6, 2015

I looked and there is a railway connection between North Korea and Russia - trading wheat and oil for shells? North Korea would probably enjoy the opportunity to freshen up its stocks by sending the oldest poo poo in exchange for fuel and food.

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