|
Red and Black posted:No, probably not a direct invasion. I'm just pointing out that countries like the US, UK, France, and Germany have an extensive history of invading and attacking Russia and Russia has good reason to be wary of a military alliance that contains all four. Russia has sent a lot more armies into Europe than European powers have sent the other way which is probably why Russias neighbors are so eager to join a defensive alliance.
|
#
¿
Feb 14, 2022 21:22
|
|
|
|
| # ¿ May 10, 2024 05:43 |
|
|
Private Speech posted:What's more they've been oppressing ethnic Russians far more heinously than Ukraine, what with denying them citizenship and forcibly assimilating them. Such a shame that the vile NATO allowed them to join, they could be part of the glorious mother Russia again by now. Do you mean the language test required for naturalization?
|
|
#
¿
Feb 14, 2022 22:37
|
|
|
Majorian posted:Yeah, exactly. "Look at these weak Europeans making GBS threads their diapers over us just conducting some exercises!" is the sort of headline that the Russian press loves. (paraphrasing, of course) Sure but the reaction in the West is not just about Russian military maneuvers on the border. Russia issued a list of demands and stated negotiations had to be concluded swiftly while massing unprecedented troop numbers on their border. How exactly are people supposed to interpret it? Russia can spin it any way they want for domestic purposes but if this isn't designed as a threat then what is? Russia issued a threat as explicit as it can be without saying it out loud and it was taken seriously as it should be.
|
|
#
¿
Feb 15, 2022 10:54
|
|
|
Majorian posted:So since then, Russia has engaged in a more assertive mode of geopolitics. So far it has worked out pretty well for them - much better than the previous strategy, at the very least. That doesn't mean that the rest of the world should roll over and show its belly whenever Putin threatens another country. What it does mean is that a strategy of containing a Russia that is an energy-exporting superpower is ultimately doomed to fail. We cannot engage them militarily, and we cannot contain them. So that leaves us with diplomacy, and that means trading concessions so that all sides can save face as best they can. It may or may not succeed at stopping episodes like this from popping up in the future - we can't know the outcome for certain. But we do know that it's really the only way forward that has any hope of succeeding. The "gently caress you, you're a defeated enemy, you get nothing" strategy is what got us here in the first place. Russias sphere of influence is disintegrating and Russia is currently doing everything it can to harm and weaken a would-be defector and one of its own trade partners. It seems like mostly ignoring Russia keeps Russia plenty busy just trying to maintain the status quo. This whole thing is about Russia being unable to keep its clients from leaving. In any case we don't know what concessions Russia was offered but it's presumptuous to assume there were none. There may be no concessions NATO/the US/the West are willing to give that would satisfy Russia but that's different from not offering anything in good faith. Veto power over NATO membership is clearly ludicrous so if that's the kind of concessions required to appease Russia then we're poo poo out of luck and I guess Russia has no choice but to reduce its fleeing clients to rubble.
|
|
#
¿
Feb 16, 2022 10:34
|
|
|
Russia got the US involved by listing demands of NATO and then acting dismissively of European leaders because they do not represent the largest NATO power and so can't speak for NATO. Which is to say Russia made it very clear they want to negotiate but only with the US. Beyond that, while a war in Ukraine will have minimal effect on the US it will affect US European allies quite a lot which is enough reason in itself to care. It shows your allies you are invested in them and they can count on you. Declaring you don't give a poo poo because it doesn't affect you personally is terrible diplomacy.
|
|
#
¿
Feb 17, 2022 01:24
|
|
|
Tuna-Fish posted:Russia has a huge air force and Ukraine has little capacity to do more than harass it after about a day of SEAD work. Fallujah part 2 took a month and a half, cost the US 600 dead and wounded and 1/5 of the city was destroyed. If Ukrainian forces or militias fortify in the cities Russian airpower is useless for anything but demolishing buildings live on TV.
|
|
#
¿
Feb 17, 2022 20:50
|
|
|
WAR CRIME GIGOLO posted:Shhhh I don't think that Ukraine is going to lock down the cities in a final city state hurrah. Id think the overwhelming force would cause most people's sanity to weigh weiwring a Russian armband over being killed and starved to death in a terror bombing campaign. I'll direct your attention to the events of Debaltseve and Donetsk Airport. Now add 8 years of simmering anger and preparations. It seems reasonable that more of Ukraine would be controlled by Russia/separatists today if there hadn't been such pockets that had slowed their advance in 2014 so Ukraine has every reason to repeat this strategy. The one strategy that makes zero sense whatsoever is to send their forces out to meet Russia in the open where they are at every disadvantage and then dutifully surrender when they have been destroyed.
|
|
#
¿
Feb 17, 2022 21:39
|
|
|
Majorian posted:I'm not so sure the West can sustain the status quo as much as you think it can - public enthusiasm for involving ourselves in places like Eastern Europe is only declining in the U.S. And I'm certain Ukraine can't keep up the status quo. As we saw with those voter polls from earlier in the thread, the center cannot hold. People like Zelensky who run on unity platforms are going to have trouble beating ultra-nationalists or pro-Moscow factions. I think Russia has as good a chance of wearing all of us down, as we do of wearing them down. I doubt shipping some weapons to Ukraine has that much impact on the American public. I guess Biden could just stop talking about Ukraine but that doesn't get Russia closer to what they want. If the government or public in Ukraine gets worked down by Russian pressure they are free to make whatever deal they want with Russia. If they want to enshrine neutrality in their constitution they have the ability to do that. The US or NATO is however not going to officially recognize Russias sphere of influence and sign over the future of Ukraine to Russia. It is simply anathema to western self-perception and proclaimed values.
|
|
#
¿
Feb 20, 2022 11:56
|
|
|
How easy is it to determine the direction artillery fire is coming from at a distance at night?
|
|
#
¿
Feb 20, 2022 21:13
|
|
|
Kamrat posted:Western Europe doesn't really care about refugees if they're white. All the far right parties will talk about helping the poor Ukrainians settle in This is very much not true.
|
|
#
¿
Feb 22, 2022 12:43
|
|
|
Gripweed posted:It's a bad meme Sure and Ukraines official Twitter is all about it. https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/2022/01/26/ukraine-russia-memes-social/ Pretty sure US the embassy meme was posted by them a couple of years ago.
|
|
#
¿
Feb 22, 2022 17:27
|
|
|
It seems like they are firing randomly at populated areas?
|
|
#
¿
Feb 22, 2022 21:58
|
|
|
dominoeffect posted:I’m not saying that the west was or is the problem, but I personally think the west and the US could have done more after the collapse of the Soviet Union. That also seems to be the modern hindsight view of people involved in the process at the time. We can always do more. You can point to any country with bad governance or a poor standard of living and at some point there was opportunity to invest in its institutions or people and today things would be less bad. Ultimately nation states are mainly concerned with internal politics and not the well-being of other nations so it's not obvious there would have been the political will or popular support to do more. It doesn't seem like economic collapse in other nations are generally of particular interest to electorates so we probably shouldn't expect that to change.
|
|
#
¿
Feb 23, 2022 08:46
|
|
|
To an extent public support for sanctions will depend on how the invasion unfolds. If we see Russian forces besieging and bombing cities for months I don't think it'll be difficult to maintain support in the long run.
|
|
#
¿
Feb 23, 2022 18:30
|
|
|
OctaMurk posted:Iraq and Afghanistan were both cases where the occupiers came from halfway around the world, didnt speak the language, had literally zero understanding of local culture and customs, didnt look like the local people, and ultimately the occupiers didnt really want to be there. The Russians dont have those disadvantages. Not that occupying Ukraine is going to be easy but the Russians got a lot going for them compared to America in the ME Chechnya offers a brutally effective solution for dealing with insurgencies. And funding and weapons flowed into Iraq and Afghanistan from a number of directions. The location and geography of Ukraine makes this somewhat more difficult.
|
|
#
¿
Feb 23, 2022 19:51
|
|
|
All this tragedy and misery because one broken idiot wants a stupid outdated empire.
|
|
#
¿
Feb 23, 2022 23:12
|
|
|
Wafflepoet posted:Russia and Russia alone is responsible for what’s happening in Ukraine. You can't guarantee ascension. If you wish to join you have to fulfill a number of requirements and then you submit an application which is either approved or denied depending on various political considerations. The process can take decades and you may never join simply because some other country has beef with you. A guarantee would be a lie. Everybody knows this.
|
|
#
¿
Feb 24, 2022 08:05
|
|
|
Mr. Fall Down Terror posted:russia doesn't want to conquer ukraine, they just want to install a pro-russian compliant government, Just to be clear that requires dismantling Ukrainian democracy and permanently suppressing the opposition by ending free speech/press and independence of the police and judiciary.
|
|
#
¿
Feb 26, 2022 06:58
|
|
|
Very curious, and concerned, to see how Russia will try to take cities without destroying them. It seems like Russian leadership is aware that turning Kiev or Kharkiv into Sarajevo would be unacceptable to both domestic and foreign audiences. On the other hand, taking defended cities with unsupported infantry would seem to be incredibly expensive in manpower. Another issue with this is that Russia may not even have that option; while Russia enjoys numerical superiority they may simply not have enough of the troops with the relevant training to accomplish it. Ukraine for its part will have to weigh the immense human cost associated with urban warfare against Ukrainian democracy and freedom from Russian occupation and purges. Where would you draw the line if there is one?
|
|
#
¿
Feb 27, 2022 16:47
|
|
|
Question is if Ukraine will have the time to use all this gear. Certainly wouldn't want to drive or fly anything with a Russian flag anywhere near Lviv though.
|
|
#
¿
Feb 27, 2022 18:34
|
|
|
WAR CRIME GIGOLO posted:Shhhh I don't think that Ukraine is going to lock down the cities in a final city state hurrah. Id think the overwhelming force would cause most people's sanity to weigh weiwring a Russian armband over being killed and starved to death in a terror bombing campaign. I suppose they must be in the process of distributing the armbands in Kharkiv about now.
|
|
#
¿
Feb 28, 2022 21:41
|
|
|
WAR CRIME GIGOLO posted:Lol if you think the Russians have good oxygen mixture tanks ready for high altitude sorties In any case it would require guided munitions which they may simply not have that much of.
|
|
#
¿
Mar 2, 2022 05:34
|
|
|
The UN estimates a million people have fled Ukraine. I'm guessing a lot of them will never see their country again.
|
|
#
¿
Mar 3, 2022 06:53
|
|
|
the popes toes posted:Sharing real time status can mean many things. Is this "directly linked" confirmed? How was it worded? I would suppose Ukraine doesn't have the institutional knowledge or experience to properly capitalize on a direct feed of raw data. Best setup would probably be a couple of office towers of analysts in the US and elsewhere parsing the reams of data coming in and then presenting the results to the Ukrainian government with recommendations from military strategists. But obviously I don't know. Maybe they are just feeding satelite imagery directly to Zelensky.
|
|
#
¿
Mar 3, 2022 21:49
|
|
|
Invading under the assumption that it will be quickly over as the enemy will collapse for [reasons] and failing to plan for a longer conflict. The opposition leader remains in their capital to organize defense as enemy troops approach it. The invading force is hampered by disruptions to logistics and supply while defenders receive massive international aid. It's almost an elaborate hommage to Russian history.
|
|
#
¿
Mar 5, 2022 10:59
|
|
|
Re.: Air superiority. I understand manpads can't handle fast high altitude aircraft but if Russia doesn't have a lot of precision munitions and suffers from poor coordination with ground troops that can identify targets as battles unfold then wouldn't high altitude missions only really be useful for intel and terror bombing cities beyond artillery range?
|
|
#
¿
Mar 5, 2022 12:04
|
|
|
KitConstantine posted:The Telegram in this tweet was posted at 16:12 Moscow time NATO markings? Like a NATO sticker on the lid? Honestly I think NATO should consider not marking their IT equipment just as a general rule.
|
|
#
¿
Mar 6, 2022 14:51
|
|
|
Bremen posted:One of the other linked videos appears to be showing explosions below the aircraft immediately before missiles take it out, so it seems like it was on a bombing run and probably contributes to all the cheering from the Ukrainians when it blows up. I am no military expert but the huge explosion when the missiles hit makes me suspect it had more bombs, too. If the Russian airforce is out of guided munitions I think they have to fly low and slow to provide effective CAS. In a country brimming with manpads that's probably means a high attrition rate. Moreover I think you probably need quite a lot of skill and experience to accurately drop dumb bombs which would require a lot of training which Russian pilots may not get. I think here's a good chance the Russian airforce is not going to play a decisive role in this war. This may be the best they can do.
|
|
#
¿
Mar 6, 2022 19:37
|
|
|
We now present Ukraines submission for the Eurovision https://twitter.com/GlobalNewsEU/status/1500539930958876680?t=LjD9NDc901-poFlmjX3Uhw&s=19
|
|
#
¿
Mar 6, 2022 23:31
|
|
|
Velius posted:One imagines that the “captured” stuff includes a lot of material that has flat tires, stuck in mud, etc.,; is it really realistic that a lot of this stuff is getting mobile under Ukrainian control or is it more likely they just destroy it when they get control? It's probably just listed as captured if it's not obviously destroyed and the guy that does the tally has no way of knowing what happens after the picture is taken or video ends.
|
|
#
¿
Mar 6, 2022 23:57
|
|
|
The real test is the cities. Sieges can take a long time and Russia doesn't have infinite time. Supply, repair and morale are unlikely to improve with time and those are not things you can just fix on the fly. If it's bad after 2 weeks it will get real bad. Meanwhile the Russian economy is about to implode. Dragging this on for months while the world watches you throw artillery at cities will only strengthen the resolve to keep up sanctions. I guess Putin might have enough control over Russia to do it but it would be left as a desiccated husk and pariah for a generation. Storming cities is really hard and expensive. I can't really imagine what it would look like to push 10s of thousands of Russian soldiers into the streets of Kiev. It just seems inconceivable. Battle of Berlin levels of insane.
|
|
#
¿
Mar 8, 2022 03:09
|
|
|
Xeom posted:Why gas the situation further? I can only imagine people here believe one of two things. Russia isn't backed into a corner. Russia is standing on their neighbors lawn shooting through their windows while demanding they surrender. No one is keeping them there.
|
|
#
¿
Mar 9, 2022 01:25
|
|
|
you feelin fucky posted:From what I remember it was Sweden and Poland pushing hard for Ukraine to grow closer to the EU and eventually join, not the US. This one is on the EU. Unless Euromaidan really was started by CIA infiltrators? Yes but it wasn't a particularly significant step Ukraine was taking in 2014. Tunisia, Egypt and Algeria also have Association Agreements with the EU and no one expects that it grants some sort of informal security guarantee from the EU, NATO or the US. It also doesn't imply that you are remotely close to getting membership of the EU or NATO. It's a trade agreement. People talk of it like the West betrayed Ukraine by not intervening in 2014 but nothing suggests we are obligated to protect everyone we sign association agreements with. We may be morally obligated to assist people who call for our help but there's no legal imperative.
|
|
#
¿
Mar 9, 2022 15:42
|
|
|
KitConstantine posted:I guess Russia is working on advancing their tank camouflage during this lull Casually charging into Ukraine in a tank under a flag associated with imperialism and ethnic cleansing expecting to be greeted as a liberator.
|
|
#
¿
Mar 11, 2022 00:07
|
|
|
Hieronymous Alloy posted:It could just as easily be bullshit. I'm a POW and captured ? "Yeah man they just grabbed me I didn't even want to be here at all" is exactly what I'd say, true or not. In any case Ukraine should stop parading POWs and no one should put any stock in the statements made by POWs.
|
|
#
¿
Mar 11, 2022 03:42
|
|
|
Rad Russian posted:It's also meaningless data as moving 10 miles over a highway to reach city limits is not the same as moving even ONE mile inside city limits in urban warfare. I don't think the Russian army has the training or manpower to take the cities through urban combat. They are likely going to besiege Kyiv and the other cities and bomb them until the defenders are starved out like they're doing in Mariupol. The only question is how long it will take vs how much pain Putin is willing for Russia to absorb through sanctions. Maybe he just doesn't give a poo poo and will go on grinding Ukraine down till the bitter end. Recruiting Syrians and Wagner nazis speaks to manpower problems but we don't really know what the actual situation is on the ground.
|
|
#
¿
Mar 11, 2022 17:44
|
|
|
KitConstantine posted:Looks like Putin got sick of Lukashenko dithering Maybe they just observed a plume of smoke in the town shortly after some planes flew in that direction and then made assumptions.
|
|
#
¿
Mar 11, 2022 17:54
|
|
|
Yeah let's just calm down with speculation of Ukraine running Russia off. Until we see Russian units retreating or surrendering in large numbers they are still winning. The Russian army is doing spectacularly poorly though. It will reshape geopolitics for a generation.
|
|
#
¿
Mar 11, 2022 18:59
|
|
|
Concerned Citizen posted:It's easy to always blame the political leadership, but the military leadership doesn't really get to claim they don't have input on achievable political goals. i think they are generally the best in the world at figuring out the best way to achieve results against lesser militaries while experiencing next to no losses, but they have also been guilty of painting pretty rosy pictures/projections on the ground that have distorted decision making Ultimately the military is controlled by the government. If politicians want and reward honest and truthful assessments that contradict desired political narratives the military will provide them. If you promote and reward sycophants and opportunists who deliver the conclusions you want then that's what you'll get. It's like what we're seeing happening to Russia in Ukraine right now. Clearly Russia started this whole thing with flawed information. You can blame the military and Intel services for loving that up but in the end it's the Russian government that is responsible for those institutions being competent and well run. Sure throw some generals and Intel chiefs in prison but you should always ask how they got there, how and why they were able to do what they did and then deal with that as well.
|
|
#
¿
Mar 12, 2022 17:24
|
|
|
|
| # ¿ May 10, 2024 05:43 |
|
|
the popes toes posted:Ukrainian provincial, boorish and naive peasant farmers, led by Western puppet comedian have destroyed and stolen an estimated 5.1 billion dollars of Russian materiel. Yeah those numbers have no bearing on reality. If it's the Ukrainian government releasing those numbers they risk losing credibility with their own forces.
|
|
#
¿
Mar 12, 2022 18:31
|
|
