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Murgos
Oct 21, 2010

US Police Departments have been killing Russian speakers for decades at statistically significant levels above random chance?

poo poo, my wife studied Russian in college...

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Murgos
Oct 21, 2010

Hieronymous Alloy posted:

It even got called out at the time!

What I don't understand is why Putin waited so long for the invasion. I think maybe he didn't believe Trump could lose and was hoping the us would leave NATO in his second term.

Look at how a little statesmanship at the right time and some conciliatory actions have essentially brought all of Europe into a sense of mutual reliance and willingness to work together.

Now, think about how that could have gone horribly wrong into innuendo and backbiting about ‘what they did to our Ned’ back in the day if there had been someone shoving sticks into the spokes.

It’s not a happy thought.

Murgos
Oct 21, 2010

bird food bathtub posted:

It's part of the fallout of being scandal-a-minute for four years. There's never enough time to swallow the whole elephant so lots of stuff gets leftover. He was probably saying the Central Park 5 deserved the death penalty for being too Black the next day or some poo poo.

I think it was when he live tweeted threats at ethnically Ukrainian Alexander Vindmann during his testimony.

Remember that part of all that was when they pushed Vindmann out of his role as advisor on Ukraine and Russia matters and replaced him with Devin Nunes stooge/staffer and all around sketch guy Kash Patel?

Yeah, that seems even more fishy in hindsight. Like, what reason would you have to remove the expert from the analysis system unless you are looking to provide bunk analysis to reach pretextual conclusions?

Murgos
Oct 21, 2010

Marshal Prolapse posted:

https://twitter.com/dimi/status/1503484449987743746?s=21

The Russian military and the rest of the kleptocracy sucks so much.

The best part is when you realize that even if China were to deliver these items to Russia that 80% of them would still be grifted away and sold on eBay.

Think of all the money you could make selling Chinese MREs on eBay to western war tourists?

Edit: Also, now I’m picturing Dave Chappell twitching and asking if, “you got any of those drones?”

Murgos
Oct 21, 2010
Apply PENAIDS directly to the forehead.

Murgos
Oct 21, 2010
I don’t think a comparison to the Tet offensive is justified.

Ukraine seems to have been calling up their reservists and placing them out west to retrain and equip. It’s highly possible, probable even, that any offensive will involve fairly large (brigade?) coherent and well equipped (motorized and some mechanized or even armored) and supplied formations.

Murgos
Oct 21, 2010

Sentinel posted:

And here i was thinking the days of amphibious landings were largely over.

No you see? That’s what makes them so genius! No one is expecting a doomed to fail, highly telegraphed amphibious landing so obviously it will be a massive success.

Murgos
Oct 21, 2010

Tiny Timbs posted:

Listen, eating flesh is eating flesh. Might as well own it.

Being able to accept the miracle of transubstantiation but then being all like, god converting that cracker into the flesh of Christ makes you a cannibal so you had best convert to my religion is some truly wild mental gymnastics.

Murgos
Oct 21, 2010

IPCRESS posted:

I think "Denazification" is a translation of the term of art the KGB used to describe the Stasi zersetzung method/practice - thread historians correct me if required please.

It does not mean what it sounds like it should mean.

I’m not sure I follow.

Are you implying that it’s actually more benign and everyone is slighting Putin with this word choice? Or are you saying that the phrase in Russian seems innocuous and your surprised it’s getting translated that way?

Murgos
Oct 21, 2010

M_Gargantua posted:

How did the Ukraine thread become the dadchat thread? On this episode we will discuss Putin's inferiority complex and how his father figures raised a monster...

The offensive has stagnated without any real change in a while and Ukraine is in that odd position of maybe starting to take some very limited offensive moves but it’s too early to tell if it can be sustained or even amount to anything.

Murgos
Oct 21, 2010

Torrannor posted:

What would that accomplish? NATO troops aren't going to be involved in fighting in Ukraine, except for whatever amount of personnel is needed to transfer arms shipments to the Ukrainians. Even if this behavior shifts some NATO troops to the Belarussian border, it's not like those soldiers were helping the Ukrainians anyway.

The working hypothesis is that what this accomplishes is that Belarus gets to look like they are contributing by publicly claiming they are protecting the Russian flank from the perfidious west without having to do more than provide basing and possibly some logistical support.

Murgos
Oct 21, 2010
If anything, given Tolkiens life, Mordor was Germany.

Murgos
Oct 21, 2010

It's one thing to do Cold War esque flyovers when everything is relatively calm but when there is an active war going on next door and you've been making noises about the perfidy of the target and your ally is reinforcing their border forces this seems unnecessarily provocative.

At some point, when pushed far enough, "I'm not touching you" does actually become a justifiable reason for a punch.

Murgos
Oct 21, 2010
It takes a fair amount of money and effort to get to Ukraine at them moment which immediately discounts 98% of the internet warriors saying they are going to Ukraine from ever getting there.

Murgos
Oct 21, 2010

Mr. Nice! posted:

Russia admits that they have lost 10k Russian Federation Soldiers (so separatists, chechens, PMCs, and others likely are not included) and the number is still probably lower than reality.

https://twitter.com/yarotrof/status/1505972650786672648

25k KIA and Wounded out of 190k pre-invasion sounds like it should translate into a lot less combat effectiveness than 90% even accounting for reinforcements.

Murgos
Oct 21, 2010

Jasper Tin Neck posted:

https://twitter.com/polinaivanovva/status/1507400322829930500

What sounds a lot like an announcement of a (partial) withdrawal seems a bit odd given how busy the Kremlin is whipping its people into war frenzy. I wonder whether they cleared this with the top or just decided "gently caress this poo poo, bring the boys home?"

There was some reporting yesterday that the recent Ukrainian counter offensives could form the western prong of Russia's salient into a pocket. IF true (big if) Russia pulling those troops back saying, 'Mission Accomplished!' could be trying to give cover to what is, in essence, a full retreat by asserting it's a planned withdrawal and any reporting to the contrary is propaganda.

Really BIG would be if Ukraine could actually form that pocket thus making this claim even more absurd. "We won! Seriously! You can let those guys go, they were all done anyway!"

I'd have to imagine that having the better parts of 2 CAAs worth of assault forces in a pocket would give Ukraine a bit more heft at the negotiating table.

Murgos
Oct 21, 2010

golden bubble posted:

https://twitter.com/herszenhorn/status/1507436672300064775

The French haven't been in the news enough lately. But LMAO Russia managed to get Greece and Turkey to work together on a military operation. Wow.

What's this going to look like? Is this a naval force that will open the port and take passengers? Conceivably they could evacuate hundreds of thousands a day that way given enough shipping.

edit: French warships, Greek cruise liners and Turkey allowing passage through the Dardanelles and air cover? They just move up and dare the Russians to engage?

Murgos
Oct 21, 2010

steinrokkan posted:

Even if they could teleport all of their merchant shipping into the Black Sea this very instant, Mariupol is in the Sea of Azov, which is Russia's internal sea, blocked by the Kerch Strait, so they can't reach it at all.

Pwned by my American knowledge of geography.

Edit: Having looked at a map I think my point stands. There are two options for this effort:

France sails several warships escorting several cruise liners set up for bulk people moving through the Kerch Strait and dares Russia to do something about it.

Otherwise, if they are just begging for Russia to let them through and then it’s just so much fluff.

Murgos fucked around with this message at 01:11 on Mar 26, 2022

Murgos
Oct 21, 2010

Tuna-Fish posted:

Even if Ukraine fully succeeds in cutting the road, Russia can still always get the men out.

Ukraine does not have the troops actually surrounding the forces, the lay of the rivers and bogs just means there's only one way for them to move vehicles in or out, and Ukraine can already shoot arty on that road, and might just cut it outright. If that happens, the Russian troops can evacuate by driving north as far as there is road, and then doing an afternoon's hike through a bog, including ~30m of swimming. The only way those men end up prisoners is if they decide they'd rather be in Ukrainian captivity than leave. Still, abandoning 2 CAAs worth of heavy equipment is embarrassing enough.

I think this is some sort of absurd oversimplification that assumes coherent effort and good supply without any attempt to circumvent it by Ukrainian forces.

Murgos
Oct 21, 2010

glynnenstein posted:

One of the things Putin uses to bolster his domestic position is to cast the US as wanting to destroy Russia and control the world, so Biden saying stuff like that just makes that messaging stronger. Of course everyone hates Putin, but giving him actual soundbytes to roll on Russian TV is counterproductive and this line was super dumb.

In the last five years I've come to believe that not tailoring what you have to say so as not to provide fodder for the eternally aggrieved is the better approach. It doesn't matter, they will find something to be aggrieved over so just say what you need to for your message to be effective to your listeners.

That said, lets get the gerontocracy out of power.

Murgos
Oct 21, 2010

That Works posted:

Maybe giving the reigns of power to people with questionable cognitive abilities is bad.

Person, man, woman, camera, TV.

Murgos
Oct 21, 2010

AreWeDrunkYet posted:

Before, they could back down and presumably sanctions would be wound down. Biden's statement yesterday implies that only regime change would be acceptable for the US. That changes the decision making process on Russia's end - that is why the statement was immediately "clarified".

No he did not say, “Only regime change is acceptable to the US”. This is a horrible bad faith interpretation of his statement.

Murgos fucked around with this message at 20:49 on Mar 27, 2022

Murgos
Oct 21, 2010
I’m old enough to (just barely) remember Woolworths with rack upon rack of M1 Garands for like, $99.

Murgos
Oct 21, 2010

Comrade Blyatlov posted:

I can't decide if I should :vince: or :negative: myself for that. Probably both.

I have to remind myself that things like Iron Eagle predate a huge portion of internet users. Many of whom would have no reason to watch it since more than three channels exist and there are multitudes of ways to entertain yourself other than with B movies.

Murgos
Oct 21, 2010

facialimpediment posted:

Looking like confirmation on this one flying around twitter today:

https://twitter.com/MaximColch/status/1508461578416496643

https://twitter.com/bellingcat/status/1508463513013997580

Also explains why Zelenskyy didn't want Abramovich sanctioned

Isn’t this like pathetically evil? What purpose does poisoning the negotiation team serve in the long term?

They aren’t the people who approve the deals.

Murgos
Oct 21, 2010

Might as well get some hours in flying along the polish border and seeing how the equipment stacks up.

Murgos
Oct 21, 2010

Cimber posted:

F-15s are dual seated, with a pilot and a wizzo, while the f-16 are single seated. Easier to steal two of 'em that way.

In the 80s F15s were single seaters.

Murgos
Oct 21, 2010

Cimber posted:

Partially correct. There were dual seat (d model) and single seat (c model), but its a moot point because the f16 is just better

Wasn’t the D just the trainer though? Not sure that really counts.

Murgos
Oct 21, 2010

Cimber posted:



Yellow are yesterday's (claimed) operations, blue are today's.

Loving the two blue pincers coming together north of Kyiv.

Murgos
Oct 21, 2010

wins32767 posted:

They aren't going to connect, that's all swamp. The blob in the middle there is already in trouble, just one pontoon bridge to supply them since Ivankiv was recaptured.

Didn’t know that it was swamp but uh, if true, that’s still a pocket. Whatever Russian forces are still in that shaded area are in for a rough time.

Murgos fucked around with this message at 01:57 on Apr 2, 2022

Murgos
Oct 21, 2010

Nick Soapdish posted:

https://twitter.com/GrayConnolly/status/1510240777959804936?s=20&t=NadpV79ump9iImEa3d89vQ

Been laughing at these accounts being like: You moron, you simpleton, why would Russia try to capture Kyiv when they really wanted other thing in the east and south

Just going to keep rewriting the script until Russia is the ever victorious hero.

Murgos
Oct 21, 2010

DJ Burette posted:

There's unsurprisingly rumours that there's going to be a big push on the LNR/DNR fronts in the next couple of days. Seeing as the Russian forces have already lost nearly a third of their entire tank force arranged pre invasion just from visually confirmed losses, is there any good way to estimate how many more they would have to lose before they can't push anymore? Similarly, can we guess how many men would they need to lose before a front of this size becomes totally unsustainable?

I'm not military so I've no idea if it's even possible to estimate the numbers of men or equipment needed to sustain a front/momentum. I can understand if the answer is just "it depends".

It depends on the the defenses. Ukraine, for good reason, hasn't been publishing their defensive situation or the state of their forces. So, really hard to tell.

Maybe the defenders are all tapped out with all their tanks dead and out of fuel and they are down to their last magazine of ammo and have been eating rats for two weeks? Or, maybe they just go reinforced by a newly constituted brigade of reservists who have been training and kitting out on the border with Poland and all their supply lines are just buzzing with fresh dumps of ammo and food in nice NATO standard packages.

At some point though you can kind of look at the size of the front and the number of soldiers trying to take it/defend it and go, uh, that's pretty sparse.

Edit: FWIW there have been some reports of units moved to the LNR/DNR front who have refused to move into the line. So it could get exciting if Russia decides for a MAX EFFORT push and there are big gaping holes where some BTGs decided to gently caress off.

Murgos
Oct 21, 2010

Dance Officer posted:

I used to think there wouldn't be a Western military intervention in Ukraine, and that it wouldn't be wise. I'm not sure now, nuclear Armageddon be damned.

I think it's more on the table today than it was a couple of days ago.

Murgos
Oct 21, 2010

CommieGIR posted:

They literally said, on live TV, they intended to do this stuff. Its only grim because they are getting more details with the very poo poo they said they would already do.

They have lists of people to round up. They fully intended to ethnically cleanse Ukraine of any sort of Ukrainian culture. The very next step is genocide. Its not a huge leap. This is a military that has a long and recorded history of doing this poo poo too, its not new. They did ethnic cleansing and murdered civilians in Chechnya, Grozny, Georgia, etc.

Everyone was like, "Those mobile crematoriums are kind of crazy" and "Funny that those Russians can't deal with families seeing their soldiers dead corpses" and now we're all like, "Those mobile crematoriums are kind of an atrocity!"

Murgos
Oct 21, 2010

meatbag posted:

They are using an ATGM because they don’t have a Stinger available right? Or are they just showing off?

Low flying helicopters have been vulnerable to atgm fire since forever. Pretty sure this was well covered in the documentary film Rambo First Blood Part II.

Aside from that though I think anti-helicopter has been on the Hellfire capabilities list for like 20 years.

Murgos
Oct 21, 2010
Thought this note from todays ISW update was appropriate to the sanctions impact and lend lease talk:

“ Ukraine’s Main Intelligence Directorate (GUR) reported on April 7 that Russian military enterprises are unable to fulfill military orders due to inflation and supply chain issues, which it attributed to the effects of western sanctions.[4] The GUR claimed it intercepted a Kremlin report on the inability of several companies to complete state contracts and discontent over the Russian Ministry of Defense forcing companies to produce orders at a loss.”

Russias supply chain seems to be even worse off than we thought and it was already pretty bad.

Murgos
Oct 21, 2010

Hekk posted:

Yeah, you are an idiot for wandering around a war zone without your weapon. You are an even bigger idiot if you lead the flying eyeball back to the rest of your unit. Run inside a building, under some trees, anywhere other than directly back to the thing you know the eyeball in the sky is looking for.

Immediate action for drone scenarios was definitely not a thing I was taught in boot camp.

Seems like something that must be taught, and practiced once out at your unit, now.

Murgos
Oct 21, 2010

SMEGMA_MAIL posted:

Yeah, that was a given once they encounter any frustration though :(

Nah, they had planned the war criming from the start. What else were they planning to do with mobile crematoriums, filtering lists and an expectation that they would decapitate the country in hours and force a capitulation within days?

Murgos
Oct 21, 2010

Somewhere a Patriot sales executive just got a hard on thinking about the rush back fill orders as the words, "third shift overhead' buzz in his ears.

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Murgos
Oct 21, 2010

A Festivus Miracle posted:

Here, have our astonishingly expensive and ineffectual for what they're actually intended for destroyers (that are larger than WW2 cruisers). As soon as they arrive in the Black Sea, you're going to need to put them in dock because the transition from Atlantic waters to Black Sea waters (being less saline than the Mediterranean) has caused an immense amount of corrosion and if you don't fix it the jets that move the vehicle are going to stop being able to turn in their mounts.

Because I am that kind of a nerd, the neither LCS type is even close to a WWII era light cruiser in size or tonnage and neither are designated as destroyers.

If you mean the Zumwalts, yes they are larger than WWII era cruisers and the gun system is nonsense but 80 VLS cells and a modern AEGIS class AESA radar array would be no joke to continued Russian sorties over Ukraine.

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