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My prediction for strategic nukes: At some point a nuclear armed country will attack another nuclear armed country with a credible attack that will have a good chance of controlling a decent chunk of territory. At this point strategic nukes will not be used in defence, and then it'll now be considered okay for conventional forces to attack nuclear armed countries, just like it's currently fine to supply arms to countries fighting wars against nuclear powers. Suddenly nukes are not going to be the awesome trump card that they have been for 80 odd years so far. Edit: 
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Apr 21, 2022 13:36
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Blind Rasputin posted:I would be more worried that Ukraine becomes the next Iraq, or Afghanistan. …. It’s not out of the question that after they defeat Russia, they turn on a dime and become corrupt and unstoppable. The EU has shown that it is very good at converting ex communist states into states that share it’s values (not a perfect record, but still). The US though seems to be terrible at taking middle eastern countries and doing the same thing. IMO it’s due to communist regimes making better institutions than dictatorships, and the EU is prolly just exporting a set of policies that most polities will like (rather that privatisation and deregulation being a fix for everthing).
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May 1, 2022 14:34
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Tiny Timbs posted:One of Trump’s best quotes is about how he’d have Elon in his office begging on his knees if he dangled a government subsidy Grifters recognise grifters. Starlink's business model is to have a high cost sat network running which extracts the most amount of dollars from customers below the current position of the sat. The only costs to starlink of customers Ukraine is customer support, any subsidies of receivers, and the cost of putting satellites in particular orbits. The marginal cost of extra subscribers is basically zero. So the strategy would be to cram as many customers in as possible, for the highest price they'll pay. Given this model, profit margins on users are only limited by the value of starlink to the customer. Musk I'd basically making the USG the customer, which makes sense, since they have more money to throw around than the Ukrainian forces. However in pr, generally you want your customers to think that everything you do is to be nice to the customer, not to soak them for cash.
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Oct 16, 2022 01:41
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GD_American posted:Until the political logjam breaks in Congress somehow (and the odds aren't great, with Dems fighting to hold onto the Senate), there is likely little relief coming from the US. It could get far worse, imagine if Trump gets in, he could:
Yeah, this is a bit DOOMy, but like only the sending of aid to Russia is unlikely. But then again this is trump, he could get in and do the complete opposite, in attempt to put himself in the history books or something.
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Apr 9, 2024 06:43
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